The Sanderson Gazette - 2012-12-05 - You Say Spoiler, I Say Savior
"I would like the Sanderson Gazette re-titled to "The Fuck You Drew Brees Gazette", please. Could you make that a box on your survey?" - Allen Clark.
Week Thirteen Recap
Babel def. Ed, 135.95-101.24:
Here's what Babel needed in order to make the playoffs: (1) Allen to lose, (2) Dave to lose, (3) to outscore Allen by 43 points, and (4) to outscore Dave by 16 points. He made it with room to spare, his third playoff berth in five years. This must feel especially sweet after missing via tiebreaker last year.
Kevin def. Dave, 122.29-105.87:
Kevin played the role of spoiler (or savior, from Babel's point of view) by upsetting his rival. Tony Romo's 26.55 and Steve Smith's 22.00 led the way. Dave got 29.40 from Cam Newton, but it was not enough to end his now-five-year playoff drought.
Derrek def. Allen, 114.00-70.31:
Allen still holds the upper hand in this rivaly all-time, but Derrek sure knows how to win when it counts. In 2009, Derrek's week thirteen victory kept Allen out of the playoffs; in 2010, Derrek denied Allen money by winning the third-place game; and now, this. So who will Allen hold a grudge against for longer: Drew Brees or Derrek Drenckpohl?
Matt def. Mike R., 105.68-87.71:
Matt followed up his second-place playoff finish last year with a second-place regular season finish this year. And that comes with a very important bye. Bernie has to be a little bummed, since he was in first or second place for the first twelve weeks of the year.
Rabbit def. Pat, 71.14-49.18:
Rabs earned a bye for the fourth straight season. Maybe he needed it, after this output. Luckily for Nick, Pat put up no fight at all.
Rob def. Pulley, 110.57-74.43:
The good news for Pulley? His August 18 prediction that Rob would miss the playoffs came true. The bad news? Rob beat him in convincing fashion.
Schertz def. Richie, 108.46-97.72:
Good effort, Richie.
Current Standings
Rabbit, 12-1, 1439.94 (b)
Matt, 11-2, 1513.04 (b)
Mike R., 11-2, 1477.41 (*)
Ed, 8-5, 1328.87 (*)
Derrek, 8-5, 1271.13 (*)
Babel, 6-7, 1255.68 (*)
Dave, 6-7, 1241.02
Allen, 6-7, 1232.33
Schertz, 5-8, 1193.91
Kevin, 5-8, 1116.90
Pat, 5-8, 997.63
Pulley, 4-9, 1152.50
Rob, 3-10, 1270.66
Richie, 1-12, 1054.16
(*) Clinched playoff berth
(b) Earned a first-round bye
Draft Lottery
The odds for getting the #1 overall pick are:
Richie: 27.75%
Rob: 17.53%
Pulley: 14.14%
Pat: 11.04%
Kevin: 10.13%
Schertz: 9.54%
Allen: 4.96%
Dave: 4.9%
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums: Babel is the big gun this week, scoring 135.95.
Slapped Heartbeat: Pat's 49.18 is the fourteenth-lowest score ever.
Weekly MVP: Calvin Johnson scored 28.80 for Babel, continuing a phenomenal year.
Dud of the Week: Drew Brees's five-interception game led to a poor score of 6.05. A horrible week, to be sure, but Brees would have needed to score 30 points in order for Allen to make the playoffs.
Season Postmortems
(I've added a new thing: Expected wins. Since I have all historical Blingaleague scores, I can figure out what percentage each weekly score would have won at. For example, a score of 114.68 would have won 78.8% of all games in Blingaleague history, so Richie's week one score counts as 0.788 wins. And for the record, 98.09 is the median score after (almost) five full years.)
Richie Armour (DICK ARMOUR, 1-12, 14th):
Richie won his very first game in his return to the Blingaleague. He then lost the rest. No, it wasn't a good year for Mr. Armour, and while that can largely be attributed to not having keepers, Richie's not blameless. Miles Austin and Philip Rivers were pretty major disappointments. One bright spot? DeMarco Murray is one of the best keeper values around.
Expected wins: 3.608.
Rob Gross (Location Nouns, 3-10, 13th):
Rob's season came down to luck. He started off 2-1, despite not breaking 90 points in any of the three weeks (that's called "good luck"). He then broke 100 in seven of the next ten games, but only won once ("bad luck"). He made a decision to obtain keepers mid-season, and got a couple with good potential (C.J. Spiller, Mikel LeShoure). He figures that one of those two should complement Rob Gronkowski well heading into next season.
Expected wins: 6.551.
Adam Pulley (Pullman's MondoSquad, 4-9, 12th):
Pulley started 1-5, but clawed his way back into playoff contention with three straight wins. He crashed back down with four losses to close the season, failing to break the 80 point mark in three of them. His keeper choices going into next year: Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Aaron Hernandez, and Stevan Ridley. And yet, the player he picked simply for keeper value, Rashard Mendenhall, doesn't seem like an option at all any more.
Expected wins: 4.719.
Pat Gawne (Our Doug is a white, 5-8, 11th):
Pat started 0-3 and looked done for. Then he won three in a row, and looked hopeful. From that point on, however, his season collapsed. He only broke 80 points twice in his last seven games, and failed to break 50 three times - which accounts for three of the fourteen lowest scores ever. Needless to say, Pat's season is not one he'll want to remember for long. Despite that, he very nearly ruined Babel's playoff hopes with a week twelve victory. And he does have Reggie Wayne as a good keeper option, at least.
Expected wins: 3.682.
Kevin Pattermann (The Chocolate Donuts, 5-8, 10th):
Kevin won his first two games and his last two games. In between, his team was pure crap. He nabbed Alfred Morris via trade in the middle of the season, which was a great move for a team going nowhere in the short term. And he played colossal spoiler against Dave, which at least made his team relevant until the bitter end.
Expected wins: 4.615.
Mike Schertz (schertzopotamus, 5-8, 9th):
In week five, Mike R. (a.k.a. Bernie) defeated Schertz (a.k.a. JuJu), 114.86-54.79. Bernie improved to 5-0, and JuJu fell to 0-5. At that time, would you have believed that the two would be almost the same team for the rest of the season? It's true - Mike R. went 6-2 over his last eight, and Schertz went 5-3. And with Doug Martin and Robert Griffin III on board, JuJu's lookin good heading into 2013.
Expected wins: 5.573.
Allen Clark (Optimus Prime, 6-7, 8th):
In a testament to his consistency, this year's finish is Allen's worst ever. Only Ed (sixth) and Derrek (seventh) can best Allen on that front. Unfortunately, a week thirteen dud kept Allen out of the playoffs. Will his 2013 season feature Drew Brees as a returning keeper? I don't know that, but I do have the feeling his rivalry game against D will have playoff ramifications, as always.
Expected wins: 5.419.
Dave Fultz (DumbFace 4 President, 6-7, 7th):
With three weeks to play, Dave was two games up for the final playoff spot. Just one win would have put him into the playoffs for the first time ever, and it's not like he collapsed. On the contrary: based on his last three scores - 83.43, 100.07, and 105.87 - the chances he would have gone 0-3 over the strech was only 13%. Fultzes and fantasy football simply do not get along.
Expected wins: 5.945.
Quarterfinals Preview
Bernard's Bullies (Mike R., 11-2, 3rd) vs. Artifish Inteligents (Babel, 6-7, 6th):
All-time series tied, 3-3.
Bernie is coming off a tough loss, which is the reason he's playing this week instead of simply advancing to the semifinals. Bernie's name is coming off a glorious win, which is the reason he's playing this week instead of watching the playoffs from the losers' side.
That said, it takes extreme recency bias to believe that Babel has the better team. He did sneak into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record, while Mike was pacing the entire league for most of the year. And this week's slate of NFL games is in Mike's favor, it would seem.
His QB (Matt Ryan) goes up agains Carolina and his top WR (Demaryius Thomas) takes on the Raiders. Babel's roster doesn't face a horrible set of matchups, but it's also not obviously beneficial. And since Mike's team is the better one on the season, Babel need's all the help he can get.
Pick: Bernard's Bullies.
Half of a Horse (Ed, 8-5, 4th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 8-5, 5th):
Derrek leads all-time series, 4-2.
We met in the 2009 quarterfinals, which was our third meeting that year and the second in a four-game winning streak for D. That means I'm out for revenge.
Following week three, I moved into fourth place and never budged one way or the other. But my team might be rounding into top form. My WRs (Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston) have been a strength all year, and now Greg Jennings is back, too. I shored up my RBs by trading for Ray Rice (thanks to another WR (Reggie Wayne) and stellar production), and now Steven Jackson might finally be hitting his stride. My QBs are OK, but now Ben Roethlisberger might be back.
Derrek's got a great RB in Adrian Peterson. His WRs were better several weeks ago, as Larry Fitzgerald had a simply "bad" QB throwing to him instead of Ryan Lindley and Percy Harvin was healthy. Dez Bryant is still a stud, though. And look who's back on his roster: the Pittsburgh defense!
This matchup might hinge on the health and effectiveness of Darren McFadden. Does D like those odds?
Pick: Half of a Horse.
Sunday Huddle
Up in the air.
Closing Thoughts
What a great year, everyone. And thank you all for filling out the year-end surveys. There have been some great responses, so expect a follow-up with some more specific questions regarding some ideas that were brought up.
EWG