The Sanderson Gazette - 2016-11-23 - Six or Seven

Technically, we can still have a six-win playoff team. In fact, it's not that hard to get to...

Week Eleven Recap

Kevin def. Allen, 123.97-93.53:

A rally from Derek Carr (24.55) propelled Kevin to this week's high score - and his first-ever bye. David Johnson's 29.60 helped, too. Allen got 27.00 from Russell Wilson and 20.37 from Rashad Jennings, but saw his playoff hopes dip to "almost none" with the loss.

Babel def. Derrek, 121.38-88.93:

Don't look now, but Babel's turned his season around to the tune of a current playoff slot. Kirk Cousins and Jamison Crowder led the way with 30.15 and 19.60, respectively, while Derrek didn't get much outside of Le'Veon Bell's 27.93.

Mike R. def Schertz, 108.68-87.61:

Bernie pulled out of the cellar thanks to Rob Kelley's 31.70. Schertz suffered through a mediocre game from the Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown connection, who put up 10.35 and 10.13, respectively.

Pulley def. Pat, 98.03-89.55:

The Pullman clinched a playoff spot with a somewhat-close win over Pat. Tom Brady (30.70) didn't quite outscore Aaron Rodgers (31.85), but the rest of Pulley's roster did just enough to earn this win.

Rob def. Matt, 87.78-69.74:

Matt's Newton-and-Julio-less team did as expected this week, as only Marcus Mariota (22.90) and kicker Chris Boswell (10.00) put up double figures. Outside of Dez Bryant's 22.67, Rob didn't have a great week, but it's enough to put him on the verge of clinching.

Rabbit def. Dave, 118.48-92.79:

Rabs moved one game closer to clinching a playoff berth, being led by the Steelers defense's 22.00 and Alex Smith's 22.05. Dave took a big hit when A.J. Green (0.00) left the game early with a hamstring injury, and never recovered.

Richie def. Ed, 94.05-65.83:

Turns out when all your running backs are on a bye week, you don't crack 70. Oof. Richie got excellent games from Dak Prescott (28.15) and Steve Smith, Sr. (19.20).

Current Standings

  1. (b) Kevin, 10-1, 1253.54

  2. (x) Pulley, 8-3, 1205.10

  3. Rabbit, 7-4, 1198.66

  4. Rob, 7-4, 1153.04

  5. Babel, 6-5, 1064.49

  6. Pat, 6-5, 980.07

  7. Schertz, 5-6, 1161.25

  8. Dave, 5-6, 1157.47

  9. Ed, 5-6, 1089.22

  10. Richie, 5-6, 986.12

  11. Allen, 4-7, 1067.17

  12. Matt, 4-7, 1066.92

  13. (e) Mike R., 3-8, 997.90

  14. (e) Derrek, 2-9, 985.89

(x) Clinched playoff berth

(b) Clinched bye

(e) Eliminated from playoff contention

Playoff Scenarios

Kevin has clinched a bye.

Kevin can clinch the #1 overall seed with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Pulley loss.

Pulley has clinched a playoff berth.

Pulley can clinch a bye with:

  • a win AND a Rabbit loss AND a Rob loss.

Rabbit can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Schertz loss AND a Dave loss AND an Ed loss AND a Richie loss.

Rob can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

Babel can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Dave loss AND an Ed loss AND a Richie loss.

Pat can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Schertz loss AND a Dave loss AND an Ed loss.

(Derrek and Mike R. have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

While it would be shocking if Kevin didn't get the #1 overall seed, Pulley's close enough in points to where Kevin going 0-2 and Pulley going 2-0 would make things close.

Even though six teams already have six wins, there are some clear scenarios where a 6-7 team makes the playoffs. Among the five- and six-win teams, Babel/Schertz, Pat/Richie, Babel/Ed, and Schertz/Richie all remain as matchups. If either Babel or Pat lose out, there's a good chance that we see a 6-7 playoff team.

There's also a scenario where next week is meaningless in terms of which teams make the playoffs (though not for byes). If Pulley defeats Ed, Rob defeats Dave, Babel defeats Schertz, and Pat defeats Richie, then the current top six will all clinch a spot. Pulley, Rob, and Rabbit (depending on his outcome) would remain in play for the second bye.

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums: Kevin takes home his third Blangums of the year, with 123.97 points.

Slapped Heartbeat: Ed's 65.83 is putrid (a bad bye week isn't an excuse for a score that bad).

Weekly MVP: Rob Kelley's 31.70 was big for Mr. Romor.

Dud of the Week: I played Akeem Hunt thinking I could maybe get lucky with a long TD. He scored -0.20. Oops.

Week Twelve Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Keep Calm & GordOn (Babel, 6-5, 5th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-6, 7th):

Schertz leads all-time series, 4-0.

Babel still plays: Ed.

Schertz still plays: Richie.

This is one of two games between five- and six-win teams, and it features the best of each. It also could be decided by the end of Thanksgiving.

JuJu has Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown (@IND) and T.Y. Hilton (vs. PIT) going on Thursday night. Mark has Kirk Cousins and Jamison Crowder (@DAL) going Thursday afternoon. Those matchups seem to favor Schertz, but either way, there's a lot of variance playing out on Turkey Day.

In terms of playoff implications, this is an absolutely necessary game for Schertz. If he loses, he falls to 5-7 (albeit with likely the highest point total of seven-loss teams), and if Pat also wins, he's mathematically out of the playoffs. Babel would still have hope if he loses; if Dave and Pat also lose, all he'd have to do (barring Richie having two huge weeks) is beat me in Rivalry Week.

If Schertz wins, nothing is guaranteed - a loss next week would require him getting the right combinations of other game outcomes. If Babel wins, the same is true, especially if I beat Pulley - our Rivalry Game would be do-or-die.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Other Blingamatches

Inconceivable (Richie, 5-6, 10th) vs. Vinegar Strokes (Pat, 6-5, 6th):

Pat leads all-time series, 3-1.

Richie still plays: Schertz.

Pat still plays: Rabbit.

This is our other matchup between five- and six-win teams, and these guys are in much more precarious position due to their (lack of) total points. If Richie loses, he's done. If Pat loses, he can still make the playoffs with a win next week, but would also need a few other games to break his way.

For Richie, he really needs to win out. For Pat... well, winning out couldn't hurt; seven wins alone isn't enough to make him feel comfortable.

As for this matchup... for Richie, Todd Gurley (@NO) and Thomas Rawls (@TAM) might be hard to trust, but they're still better than Duke Johnson, Jr. (vs. NYG) and whichever RB Pat tabs to replace C.J. Prosise (@TAM, injured).

Pick: Inconceivable.

Rob for Today (Rob, 7-4, 4th) vs. Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 5-6, 8th):

All-time series tied, 5-5.

Rob still plays: Pulley.

Dave still plays: Kevin.

Winning out would be huge for Dave, given his point total. He'd still likely need two of Babel or Schertz to lose a game, though. And a 1-1 record from here on out doesn't truly sink him, either. He'd need a lot of help (Babel and Pat both losing out or Schertz likely losing out).

Rob's basically in the playoffs; seven wins, good point total. His schedule's not great, and a bye seems like a fairly long shot, but he should feel comfortable playing past Rivalry Week again.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Live Commish (Ed, 5-6, 9th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 8-3, 2nd):

All-time series tied, 4-4.

Ed still plays: Babel.

Pulley still plays: Rob.

I need this game. And even if I win it, I still need to win next week. (And if I win them both, I'm as good as in.) It's going to be harder without Rob Gronkowksi (@NYJ, injured) to cancel out some of Pulley's Tom Brady (@NYJ) points, but even with that factor, Yahoo thinks we're close.

Pulley's already in the playoffs. He doesn't even realy need this game to stay in line for a bye, though it will help a good deal.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 10-1, 1st) vs. Bernie's Bullies (3-8, 13th):

All-time series tied, 4-4.

Kevin still plays: Dave.

Mike R. still plays: Matt.

The only drama here is if Kevin can continuing moving towards just the third 12-1 regular season in Blingaleague history (2012 Rabbit, 2015 Pulley).

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 7-4, 3rd) vs. Optimus Prime (Allen, 4-7, 11th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 5-3.

Rabbit still plays: Pat.

Allen still plays: Derrek.

Rabs could put himself in good bye position with a win plus a Pulley loss (they're only seven points apart, and the win/loss combo would make it fairly likely that gap was made up). Either way, he's just about a lock for the playoffs.

Allen's just about a lock for missing, though there are some unlikely scenario where he sneaks in a 6-7 (at least one of Babel or Pat loses out, none of Schertz, Dave, Ed, or Richie wins out, and Allen challenges for Blangums each week is one such scenario).

Pick: Optimus Prime.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 4-7, 12th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 2-9, 14th):

All-time series tied, 5-5.

Matt still plays: Mike R.

Derrek still plays: Allen.

Matt's in the exact scenario Allen is (they're within one total point of each other). Derrek can finish as high as 11th (and has lost seven in a row).

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Closing Thoughts

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Eddo