The Sanderson Gazette - 2016-11-29 - Logjam

Usually we think of seven wins as enough to make the playoffs, but we're staring down a situation where we could have two above-500 teams miss the playoffs.

Week Twelve Recap

Rabbit def. Allen, 112.50-108.79:

This slugfest saw Allen race out to a big lead on Thanksgiving thanks to Ezekiel Elliott's 24.77 and Jordan Reed's 24.67. Rabs fought back thanks to LeSean McCoy's 28.43 and Philip Rivers's 21.60, and held on when Allen couldn't get much from Russell Wilson (8.55) and Tyler Lockett (0.90). Rabs clinched a playoff spot and eliminated Allen in the process.

Ed def. Pulley, 105.24-100.73:

Ed kept his playoff hopes alive thanks to huge games from Mike Evans (25.87) and Odell Beckham, Jr. (24.80). Justin Tucker's career day (19.00) nearly saved Pulley, but Brandin Cooks (0.00) and Allen Robinson (3.20) disappointed enough for him to fall out of a bye slot for now.

Dave def. Rob, 99.34-95.64:

Dave's playoff hopes are also still alive due to an overall solid lineup led by Blake Bortles (21.40) and Devonta Freeman (20.27). Dave can also thank Matt Barkley, whose fourth quarter play dropped Rob's defense, Tennessee, to only 3.00 points and prevented the younger Gross from securing a playoff spot.

Schertz def. Babel, 114.28-95.55:

Most of the fun here happened on Thanksgiving, with Ben Roethlisberger (23.05), Antonio Brown (30.13), and T.Y. Hilton (7.20) going for JuJu and Kirk Cousins (34.65) and Jamison Crowder (11.73) going for Mark. Sunday's games allowed Schertz to pull ahead for good, thanks in large part to the New York Giants and their 23.00 defensive points.

Pat def. Richie, 95.28-61.63:

Pat and Aaron Rodgers (26.25) took advantage of Richie's team's descent into shit. Mr. Armour's playoff chances are officially over, symbolized nicely by his 0.00 from Adam Vinatieri and -1.00 from the Dallas defense.

Mike R. def Kevin, 97.01-92.47:

Bernie scored the upset of the year behind Eli Manning's 21.00 and Terrell Pryor, Sr.'s 17.47. Kevin can point to Amari Cooper's bad week (2.93) as his biggest reason for losing.

Matt def. Derrek, 111.80-79.34:

The only surprise here is that Matt scored so many points despite a disappointing week from Julio Jones (4.67).

Current Standings

  1. (z) Kevin, 10-2, 1346.01

  2. (*) Rabbit, 8-4, 1311.16

  3. (*) Pulley, 8-4, 1305.83

  4. Rob, 7-5, 1248.68

  5. Pat, 7-5, 1075.35

  6. Schertz, 6-6, 1275.53

  7. Dave, 6-6, 1256.81

  8. Ed, 6-6, 1194.46

  9. Babel, 6-6, 1160.04

  10. (e) Matt, 5-7, 1178.72

  11. (e) Richie, 5-7, 1047.75

  12. (e) Allen, 4-8, 1175.96

  13. (e) Mike R., 4-8, 1094.91

  14. (e) Derrek, 2-10, 1065.23

(*) Clinched playoff berth.

(b) Clinched first-round bye.

(z) Clinched #1 overall seed.

(e) Eliminated from playoff contention.

Playoff Scenarios

Kevin has clinched the #1 overall seed.

Rabbit has clinched a playoff berth.

Rabbit can clinch a bye with:

  • a win AND a Pulley loss.

Pulley has clinched a playoff berth:

Pulley can clinch a bye with:

  • a win AND a Rabbit loss.

Rob can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Schertz loss AND a Dave loss.

Pat can clinch a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Schertz loss AND a Dave loss.

(Derrek, Mike R., Allen, Richie, and Matt have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II: The Logjam

Our logjam of six- and seven-win teams means that the official clinching scenarios are limited, though there is some clarity.

Pat's in the weirdest position, so let's start with him. He's in with a win. A loss, and he needs a lot of help, because his point total is so low. The winner of Ed/Babel will get to seven wins and almost certainly remain ahead of Pat in points and pass him in the standings if he loses. Schertz and Dave are even farther ahead in points, so if either of them wins, they'll pass a losing Pat, and Pat will get knocked out. Therefore, Pat would need both Schertz and Dave to lose to make the playoffs if he doesn't upset Rabbit.

Rob is in a win-and-in situation, but even with a loss, can get in with a loss by any of Pat, Schertz, or Dave. Schertz and Dave because they are a full game behind anyway, and Pat because of his aforementioned low point total.

Neither Schertz nor Dave is in a true win-and-feel-comfortable situation because they are close enough in points. It's not hard to see Dave outscoring Schertz by 19 points to pass him in the tiebreaker. If they both win, one of Rob or Pat would need to lose for the one with fewer points to still make it. Additionally, if either loses, they are out, as they will be passed by the Ed/Babel winner.

Speaking of the battle for the Old-School Timberwolves Hat - due to point totals, the winner (be it Ed or Babel) will need two of Pat, Schertz, and Dave to lose in order to make the playoffs.

And let's not forget about the second bye. Realistically, only Pulley and Rabbit have a real shot at it. Given that they're only six points apart right now, it's a a true tossup.

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums: Schertz's 114.28 is the fifth-lowest Blangums of all-time.

Slapped Heartbeat: Richie's 61.63 would win less than one in twenty games.

Weekly MVP: Antonio Brown's 30.13 was necessary for Schertz to win Blangums.

Dud of the Week: Brandin Cooks put up a healthy 0.00 for Pulley.

Start of the Week: Dave played Tyler Eifert and his 15.07 over Kyle Rudolph's 8.53 and won by less than four points.

Misplay of the Week: Rob left Brandon Marshall (14.93) on his bench over Dez Bryant (9.60), DeAndre Hopkins (9.33), and Larry Fitzgerald (7.07) and lost by less than four.

Blessed Cahoots: When your kicker ties the record for 50-plus yard field goals in a game, you just might find yourself saying, "Blessed cahoots!" Justin Tucker's 19.00 were a major part of the reason Pulley had a chance to win on Monday night.

Rivalry Week Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 8-4, 2nd) vs. Vinegar Strokes (Pat, 7-5, 5th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-2.

Take a deep breath, everyone: Pat controls his own playoff destiny. And if he loses, he'll need a lot of help from Kevin and Richie. So it's probably not good that he has only one healthy and not-on-bye RB (Kenneth Dixon, vs. MIA) on his roster, right?

Rabbit's now successfully made the playoffs despite being 0-3 and 1-4 at various times this season. DeMarco Murray is on bye, but LeSean McCoy (@OAK) and Lamar Miller (@GB) are still going strong, and Davante Adams (vs. HOU) has emerged as the top WR in Green Bay... and can cancel out some points from Pat's biggest advantage, Aaron Rodgers (vs. HOU).

I think we'd all like to see Pat in the playoffs, but I think we'll have to wait another year.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Other Blingamatches

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 10-2, 1st) vs. Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 6-6, 7th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 8-3.

In the past, Kevin's played spoiler to keep Dave out of the playoffs from below. This year, he'll be looking to do it from first place. The surging Rishard Matthews is on bye, so Kevin will absolutely need Amari Cooper (vs. BUF) to bounce back from a down week. Dave's without his top WR (A.J. Green) and faces some tough matchups for his QB (Blake Bortles, vs. DEN), RBs (Frank Gore, @NYJ, and Devonta Freeman, vs. KC), and DEF (Minnesota, vs. DAL).

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 8-4, 3rd) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 7-5, 4th):

Rob leads all-time series, 7-6.

The Clash of Hatred has bye implications for the fourth straight year, as both Pulley and Rob look to bounce back from close losses. Rob could actually miss the playoffs if he loses, so he'll really be hoping that Drew Brees (vs. DET) can outplay Tom Brady (vs. LA). Another fun sub-game to play here: Guess the Disappointing WR! Pulley's gotten duds from Jordy Nelson (vs. HOU), Brandin Cooks (vs. DET), and Allen Robinson (vs. DEN) in recent weeks, and Rob's had trouble playing the optimal trio among Dez Bryant (@MIN), DeAndre Hopkins (@GB), Brandon Marshall (vs. IND), and Larry Fitzgerald (vs. WAS).

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 6-6, 8th) vs. Keep Calm & GordOn (Babel, 6-6, 9th):

Babel leads all-time series, 8-4.

To put it bluntly, the winner of this game has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs - so it speaks to the quality of our other Rivalry Week matchups that this was bumped to fourth on our list. I said Rob Gronkowski (vs. LA) was key last week, but I won with him scoring zero points, so who knows? Mike Evans (@SD) remains awesome, but so does Melvin Gordon (vs. TAM) for my opponent.

Pick: Live Commish.

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 6-6, 6th) vs. Inconceivable (Richie, 5-7, 11th):

All-time series tied, 2-2.

The Giants' suprisingly good defense stands in the way of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown this week, but Richie's shell of a team (he has two Browns! and they're on bye!) doesn't appear ready to put up much resistance, regardless of how well the unpredictable Steelers play. A win doesn't guarantee Schertz anything (see above), but it does seem likely.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Optimus Prime (Allen, 4-8, 12th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 2-10, 14th):

Allen leads all-time series, 7-6.

Derrek's assured of a last-place finish for the first time ever. Allen's team was actually much better than it's been in years, but he finds himself eliminated from the playoffs prior to Rivalry Week. This one's for pride, as always.

Pick: Optimus Prime.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-7, 10th) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 4-8, 13th):

Matt leads all-time series, 9-3.

This is the first time since 2010 that this rivalry game has no playoff implications. Also to note: Matt can become the first Blingafranchise to get to double-digit wins against another.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Closing Thoughts

Week twelve was the ninth-closest-scoring week of all time, with an average margin of just 14.47 points.

https://blingaleague.com/blingalytics/weekly_scores/

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