"I think I should get bonus fantasy points for breaking up a fight in the stands" - Pat, getting creative as he tried to avoid becoming the second 0-7 team ever.

"I can be creepy without talking about child birth" - Scott, attempting to replace our dear departed Dr. Touchdown.

Week 7 Recap

Dave def. Rob, 86.22-76.38:

Two teams in history have been 6-0; Dave has now given each of them their first loss of the season. Odell Beckham, Jr. once again led a Monday night comeback against Rob, as his 24.97 outpaced Calvin Ridley (5.73) by enough to get Dave his third win of the year. Rob got 15.87 and 15.60 from Tyreek Hill and A.J. Green, but Matt Breida's -0.50 was killer.

Scott def. Rabbit, 131.10-80.79:

Scott's team delivered in a big way in our Game of the Blingaweek, while Rabbit's put out a big dud and was in contention for the Slapped Heartbeat until late Monday night. Patrick Mahomes (35.40) had his usual big game for Scott, and George Kittle (19.07) and Kerryon Johnson (18.60) provided solid support. LeSean McCoy's injury-induced 0.10 and Bilal Powell's injury-induced 2.67 were pretty representative of Rabbit's week.

Richie def. Derrek, 121.55-95.62:

John Brown (23.87) and the Rams defense (25.00) led the way for Richie, and perhaps more notably, a man from D's former hometown of Milan (Giorgio Tavecchio) put up 16.00. D's kicker, Robbie Gould (6.00), did not do so hot, and Emmanuel Sanders's 25.00 on Thursday night went for naught.

Mike R. def. Babel, 149.12-103.77:

Babel's team bounced back from two substandard weeks, but there was no defeating the Bullies this week. Only the Arizona defense, with zero, scored less than 12.67 (Travis Kelce) for Mike. Kareem Hunt's 33.93 was the overall high score in this game, but Babel didn't get enough around it to stay competitive into Monday.

Pulley def. Pat, 137.51-100.32:

Pat has now cracked 100 points in two straight weeks after taking five straight Slapped Heartbeats to open the season! But, like Babel, he was up against a monster week from his opponent, and fell to 0-7. Todd Gurley II's 27.37 and Latavius Murray's 20.77 overcame Charles Clay's -0.13 for Pulley, and he moved to 5-2 on the year.

Matt def. Schertz, 115.38-82.07:

Another week, another boring win for Matt. Mitchell Trubisky (33.75) filled in well at QB, and the Denver defense put up 32.00 of its own (despite allowing ten points!). Schertz continued to reap rewards from Saquon Barkley (19.10), but the rest of his team was mediocre (Jordan Howard, 11.10) to bad (Nelson Agholor, 2.67).

Kevin def. Ed, 127.24-83.57:

Marlon Mack (31.00), Sterling Shepard (22.27), and Trey Burton (22.80) were the unlikely difference makers for Kevin this week. Ezekiel Elliott (4.50) and Taylor Gabriel (3.47) disappointed for the commissioner.

Standings

1. Mike R., 6-1, 886.09
2. Rob, 6-1, 772.07
3. Matt, 5-2, 811.97
4. Pulley, 5-2, 803.21
5. Derrek, 4-3, 822.73
6. Kevin, 4-3, 810.51
7. Scott, 4-3, 772.47
8. Richie, 3-4, 732.00
9. Rabbit, 3-4, 715.44
10. Dave, 3-4, 672.84
11. Ed, 2-5, 762.02
12. Babel, 2-5, 691.15
13. Schertz, 2-5, 687.88
14. Pat, 0-7, 538.80

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Mike R.'s 149.12 is his third Team Blangums of the year.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Rob's 76.38 gets him only his third Slapped Heartbeat ever, and first in nearly four years.

Weekly MVP:

Bernie's Bullies had a pretty even week, so this one goes to Marlon Mack, who scored 31.00 points for Kevin.

Dud of the Week:

Matt Breida (-0.50) and the Buffalo defense (-3.00) went negative for Rob in a game he lost by less than ten points.

Start of the Week:

This week's average margin of victory of 35.09 is the sixteenth highest ever. Dave was the only winner of a close game, and he left points on his bench, so this goes unawarded.

Misplay of the Week:

Rob could have played Ben Watson (11.73) over the aforementioned Breida and won, but that would have been a pretty bold move. I'll leave it up to the reader to decide if this one stays vacant, too.

Pickup of the Week:

Matt claimed the Denver defense on waivers and got 32.00.

Blessed Cahoots:

Dave was lucky to have Odell Beckham, Jr. (24.97) on his roster for a week that he needed to outscore Rob on Monday night, as Beckham, along with C.J. Spiller and Adam Pulley, sits on Rob's Traumatic Triumvirate.

Pryor Play of the Week:

Odell Beckham, Jr. (24.97) has been having a rough year, but he blew up this week to get Dave a win.

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

• 0-7: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

• 1-6: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

• 2-5: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

• 3-4: 20% (25% with week 8 win, 17% with loss)

• 4-3: 61% (78% with week 8 win, 44% with loss)

• 5-2: 93% (100% with week 8 win, 83% with loss)

• 6-1: 100% (100% with week 8 win, 100% with loss)

• 7-0: 100% (100% with week 8 win, 100% with loss)

Week 8 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-1, 1st) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 6-1, 2nd):

Rob leads all-time series, 8-3.

Let's start with a question about Mike's team: just how good is it? His 886.09 points are a decent amount more than the next highest through seven weeks, but in terms of expected wins, he's just 18th. (That shows just how high scoring this year is; 2018's 106.93 average is over five points higher than the next highest year, 2011, which is closer to ninth than first.) That said, the gap between him and the second most expected wins this year (0.38) is the third most ever through seven weeks (surprisingly, 2017 Babel's lead is second highest).

This week, Mike will be hoping the CLE@PIT game becomes a shootout, as both Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry are in his lineup. Adding to that, Adam Thielen plays against a Saints team that has been fairly easy to pass on. (Yes, WRs are Mike's strength.) And don't forget Travis Kelce (vs. DEN)!

As for his opponent, is Rob's week seven Slapped Heartbeat a sign of things to come? To be blunt, probably not. Tyreek Hill (vs. DEN) and A.J. Green (vs. TAM) are two of the premier WRs this year, and should give Rob a good shot to win any given week. That said, he has some serious question marks. Deshaun Watson (vs. MIA) has fallen off this year, likely due to injury. Matt Breida (@ARI) may miss some time with his own ailments, and Carlos Hyde (vs. PHI) just got traded to a team with a very murky RB picture.

The quiet stalwart of Rob's team has been Zach Ertz (@JAC). But this week, Ertz might not be the best TE in this matchup. That does not bode well for Rob for Today.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Other Blingamatches

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-2, 3rd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-3, 6th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 7-4.

Will Matt's team hit its full potential? That's a scary question to ask about a team that is already 5-2 and in third place, but it's a valid one. Rob Gronkowski (@BUF) hasn't scored more than 12.93 points since week one and is coming off a missed game. Russell Wilson (@DET) has not lived up to his high ADP. Brandin Cooks (vs. GB), on the other hand, has been a surprisingly consistent player, and Melvin Gordon III (bye) has been scoring more TDs than his yardage totals would predict. Matt could be in a situation where, once his underperforming guys turn into their old selves, some of his key players so far will come back to earth a bit. The playoffs seem very likely, but this could turn into a "what might have been" season for our Monster Heel.

On the other side, what can we expected from Alvin Kamara (@MIN)? Kev's keeper has fallen from "ridiculous" to "merely a top ten RB" since Mark Ingram came back; is this the new normal, or will Kamara go back to averaging over 20 points per game? The rest of Kev's roster is full of unpredictable players. Stefon Diggs (vs. NO) has three games under six points to go with a 30-pointer earlier in the year. Trey Burton (vs. NYJ) seems to be on an upward trajectory, but the Chicago offense is hard to judge. Marlon Mack (@OAK) was week seven's MVP, but can he be counted on to score double digits regularly?

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-3, 5th) vs. Not an MD (Scott, 4-3, 7th):

All-time series tied, 0-0.

Should D be worried about Le'Veon Bell's return? That seems silly, right? Well, James Conner (vs. CLE) has driven D's team all year; when Bell's handcuff has scored more than 10.63, Derrek has won, and when he hasn't, Derrek has lost. Bell's eventual return means a boatload of uncertainty; will either be especially valuable if they wind up splitting carries? Will the workloads be predictable? D's fortunate that Davante Adams (@LAR) and Emmanuel Sanders (@KC) have been true studs this year.

Looking at Scott's team, was the gamble of trading for Amari Cooper (bye) wise? I'm not a huge fan of the trade - David Johnson and Golden Tate have outscored DeAndre Hopkins (vs. MIA) and Cooper four out of seven weeks so far - but a bold move might be what Scott needs. His team is solid, and Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN) gives him the advantage at QB every week, but he is still looking up at six teams who are better on paper. Taking a chance on the newest Cowboy could be the thing that pushes him into the playoffs. (That said, I'd feel more confident in his chances if he wasn't using three roster spots on defenses.)

Pick: D's Nuts.

Brady to rumblllleee[sic] (Richie, 3-4, 8th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 3-4, 9th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 5-1.

Was the gamble of trading away DeAndre Hopkins wise for Richie? Like with Scott, it could be the bold move he needs. At 3-4, Richie's definitely on the playoff fringes, but grabbing two solid starters in David Johnson (vs. SF) and Golden Tate (vs. SEA) means that he doesn't have to rely on Cooper, Jordy Nelson (vs. IND), or Duke Johnson, Jr. (@PIT) every week. And there's a chance David Johnson looks more like his 2016 self with a new offensive coordinator.

What is up with Rabbit's team, though? LeSean McCoy (vs. NE) has been a huge disappointment and is questionable to even play this week. Robert Woods (vs. GB) turned out to be a great keeper, though, and Julio Jones (bye) is among the top ten WRs despite having, somehow, zero touchdowns on the year. But this week, Jones and Matt Ryan (who's also been quite good) are on bye, which means Rabs will be reliant on Eli Manning (vs. WAS). Rabs has scored 114.06 or more in each of his three wins, and 92.06 or less in each of his four losses; another in the latter category almost certainly means his playoff hopes are over.

Pick: Brady to rumblllleee.

Chili Right Away (Dave, 3-4, 10th) vs. HuntFournetteOctober (Babel, 2-5, 12th):

Babel leads all-time series, 10-2.

Wait, is Dave seriously a contender? No. He might be only a game out of the playoffs, but he's in a cohort of teams that historically don't have good playoff odds. Carson Wentz (@JAC) doesn't look like himself; Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. WAS) has been unreliable; Sony Michel (@BUF) likely won't play. Dave does not have a good team, but given his (very) recent entry into (real) fatherhood, I doubt he's spending too much time worrying about it.

But surely, Babel's not in better shape? No to that, too. Teams centered around Babel's expected wins make the playoffs even less historically (notice a couple other 2018 teams in there?), so it's hard to say he has a better playoff shot than Dave. Jared Goff (vs. GB) needs to go back to being the QB he was in weeks 1-4, when he averaged well over 20 points per game, and Kareem Hunt (vs. DEN) needs to stay scorching hot for Babel to even sniff the playoffs.

Pick: HuntFournetteOctober.

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 5-2, 4th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 2-5, 13th):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-1.

Will Pulley only go as far as Todd Gurley (vs. GB) takes him? Gurley's certainly been the fantasy MVP through seven weeks, and I've highlighted just how much he's carried Pulley's team in previous Gazettes, but it's not like Pulley would turn into Dave or Pat if Gurley got injured. Andrew Luck (@OAK) has been pretty reliable after a rough start to the year, and T.Y. Hilton (@OAK) looks like he's back to full health. Something to watch out for is how long Pulley's RBs keep it up; Gurley's touchdown-to-yards ratio is insanely high, but Adrian Peterson (@NYG) and Philip Lindsay (@KC) don't have the touchdowns to match their surprisingly high yardage totals; if they start to score more, they could offset any regression Gurley sees in that area.

Should Schertz start looking towards next year? Probably. He's in 13th place in the standings and 12th in expected wins. Josh Gordon (@BUF) and Jordan Howard (vs. NYJ) have been disappointing keepers, and Aaron Rodgers (@LAR) has not lived up to his first-QB-drafted expectations (even if he's still been pretty good). At least Schertz can root for the most exciting player to watch in the whole league, Saquon Barkley (vs. WAS), and smile as he realizes he can have him for the next two years, too.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 2-5, 11th) vs. NotLooking4TheRepeat (Pat, 0-7, 14th):

Ed leads all-time series, 6-3.

Ed keeps talking about his bad luck; how justified is he to complain? Despite have three truly bad weeks of sub-100 scoring, Ed still has a more than 50% chance of having four or more wins. That's because he's lost twice in weeks that he's scored at least 127.35, and his two actual wins both came in at 114.37 or more. He has by far the most points by a 2-5 team ever and a significant lead in expected wins, as well. The 1.66 difference between his expected wins and actual wins is the third highest ever at this point in the season (behind 2013 Babel and 2008 Matt; unfortunately for Ed, neither of those teams finished better than second-to-last). At this point, it's very unlikely that Drew Brees (@MIN), Mike Thomas (@MIN), and Ezekiel Elliott (bye), all top ten at their positions, can lead him to the postseason.

Given Ed's luck, is this the week Pat finally gets a win? Even among the worst of the worst, Pat's team stands out. But he is on a two game 100-point streak, Alshon Jeffery (@JAC) has been great since he got back from injury, and Christian Kirk (vs. SF) is clearly Arizona's #1 WR now, so his team has some life.

This game also features Kenyan Drake (@HOU) and Lamar Miller (vs. MIA) going against each other in real life - and for Ed and Pat, respectively - just two weeks after the two Blingafranchises traded them straight up for one another.

Pick: Live Commish.

Closing Thoughts

Did it feel like this past week had disappointingly low scores for 2018? Although week seven brought us 5 of our 22 total sub-90 games this year, it was still the fourteenth highest average score of all time. 2018 is crazy.

Also, as a reminder, the trade deadline is Saturday, November 17, this year.

Previous Next

All Sanderson Gazettes