The Sanderson Gazette - 2018-10-31 - Brutal

Our insane season of high scores continues, as week eight comes in as our tenth-highest average score of all time.

Week 8 Recap

Derrek def. Scott, 142.61-142.51:

Poor Scott. His put up a score that would have won over 95% of the time, historically, instead winds up with the third highest losing score in league history. Once again, James Conner (35.40) was the driving force behind D's end result, though Christian McCaffrey (17.97) and the Cincinnati defense (16.00) provided big games, too. Scott got his usually stellar game from Patrick Mahomes II (28.05), while Tyler Boyd (24.20) rebounded nicely. The New England defense (20.00) gave their all on Monday night, but fell just short of what Scott needed, and D hung on for a critical fifth victory.

Rob def. Mike R., 115.68-113.73:

Rob also held onto a tight win on Monday night, with Stephen Gostkowski (13.00) scoring just enough to hold off Mike's comeback attempt fueled by James White (18.03). Essentially, Rob was really just clinging to a lead from Thursday night on, as Deshaun Watson (33.35) was his clear best performer this week. Mike got the usual 21.87 from Antonio Brown and 19.23 from Adam Thielen (which was somehow below Yahoo's projection for him!), but Geronimo Allison's 1.87 loom large in this loss.

Ed def. Pat, 109.24-102.67:

Ed finally got to experience on the other side of a Monday night comeback, as Julian Edelman (15.17) provided enough for him to overtake Pat and keep his slim playoff hopes alive. Sammy Watkins (26.27) exploded for Pat, but it was not enough for him to avoid becoming the first 0-8 team ever. Like their respective Blingaleague teams (and unlike their NFL teams), Kenyan Drake defeated Lamar Miller in the battle of traded running backs.

Richie def. Rabbit, 105.04-87.76:

Richie's fully in the playoff conversation again, with Joe Mixon (26.30) leading the way. Rabs got 27.60 from Marvin Jones, Jr., but Martavis Bryant's zero and Isaiah Crowell's 4.23 were more indicative of his overall performance, as he failed to break 90 for the second week in a row.

Kevin def. Matt, 107.18-66.27:

This game was ugly for both sides until the Sunday night game, where Kevin got all he needed from Alvin Kamara (20.63) and Stephon Diggs (21.87) to put up a solid overall total. (Marlon Mack also helped, with 27.47.) Matt had only two double digit scorers, Mitchell Trubisky (23.10) and Brandin Cooks (10.77).

Babel def. Dave, 119.28-86.90:

Babel kept some hope alive - and probably removed the last remaining bit of Dave's - with a convincing win. Mike Evans's 29.87 and Jared Goff's 26.95 more than made up for Michael Crabtree's 4.13 and David Njoku's zero for Mark, while Dave suffered through Corey Clement's 0.47 and Doug Baldwin's 3.47. Babel takes control of the Blingaleague Belt with this victory.

Pulley def. Schertz, 129.41-81.73:

Speaking of convincing wins and lost hope, let's check in on Pulley and Schertz. Pulley once again pulled out a win despite playing the wrong defense (Indianpolis, -2.00), as his running backs - Todd Gurley II (30.20), Adrian Peterson (25.83), and Phillip Lindsay (17.77) - all showed up with gusto. Meanwhile, even Saquon Barkley (13.53) disappointed for Schertz.

Standings

  1. Rob, 7-1, 887.75
  2. Mike R., 6-2, 999.82
  3. Pulley, 6-2, 932.62
  4. Derrek, 5-3, 965.34
  5. Kevin, 5-3, 917.69
  6. Matt, 5-3, 878.24
  7. Scott, 4-4, 914.98
  8. Richie, 4-4, 837.04
  9. Ed, 3-5, 871.26
  10. Babel, 3-5, 810.43
  11. Rabbit, 3-5, 803.20
  12. Dave, 3-5, 759.74
  13. Schertz, 2-6, 769.61
  14. Pat, 0-8, 641.47

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Derrek's 142.61 barely edged out Scott's 142.51 here, just like in their matchup. This is D's third Blangums through week eight, just the sixth time that's been done (sort by the Blangums column, and notice Mike R.'s 2018 season also present); Derrek's the only one of the six to have fewer than six wins at the time.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Matt's been good for a midseason Slapped Heartbeat for three years running, as his 66.27 is our low mark this week.

Weekly MVP:

Deshaun Watson's 33.35 put Rob back atop the standings.

Dud of the Week:

Kenjon Barner put up 0.40 for Matt, barely nabbing this one over Kenny Golladay, who put up 1.60 for Matt.

Start of the Week:

Derrek went with Danny Amendola (11.13) over Antonio Callaway (10.80) and won by the second smallest margin ever (0.10).

Misplay of the Week:

Scott played Demaryius Thomas (4.00) over Wendell Smallwood (14.00) and lost by the aforementioned second smallest margin ever. Honorable mention to Mike R., who played Andy Dalton (22.00) and Geronimo Allison (1.87) over Cam Newton (30.15) and Tyler Lockett (11.83) and also lost a close one.

Pickup of the Week:

Derrek picked up the Cincinnati defense, who provided 16.00 key points.

Special Feature: The Scott / Richie Trade

Since we had a trade that was discussed in the Blingachat more than usual, let's track how it plays out for the rest of the year.

Week 8

  • Scott's side: Hopkins, 22.93; Cooper, 0 (bye); Cooper replacement (Demaryius Thomas): 4.00

  • Richie's side: Johnson, 11.37; Tate, 6.97

  • Net: Scott +8.59

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

  • 0-8: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 1-7: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 2-6: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 3-5: 14% (30% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 4-4: 33% (40% with week 9 win, 27% with loss)

  • 5-3: 80% (100% with week 9 win, 62% with loss)

  • 6-2: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

  • 7-1: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

  • 8-0: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

Week 9 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

D's Nuts (Derrek, 5-3, 4th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 5-3, 5th):

Derrek leads all-time series, 8-3.

Our last two Sanderson Cup holders face off in a game with serious playoff implications; every previous 6-3 team has made the playoffs.

D's season has been notable for his variability. He hasn't scored between 95.62 (the 33rd percentile of 2018 games so far) and 116.15 (70th percentile); as a result, he has five deserved wins and three deserved losses. His best outlook from a historical comparison perspective is the 2016 version of his week nine opponent, Kevin, who also broke 116 points five of the first eight weeks and rolled to victory in Blingabowl IX; he'll want to avoid being like 2011 Babel, who managed only two more wins after a 5-3 start. If D gets his heartbeat slapped this week, he should start worrying.

Kevin joins 2013 Ed as the only teams to break 100 points in each of their first eight weeks, though 2013 Ed does not appear on Kevin's closest historical comps (because of the lower scoring environment in 2013, Ed's streak rates out as nearly one more expected win over the time frame). Instead, Kev will hope 2011 Rabbit is the best predictor of his season and a second Sanderson Cup in three years; and like D, he'll want to avoid emulating 2011 Babel.

What's on the table this week? Kev will be without the steady Sterling Shepard and surprisingly outstanding Marlon Mack, both on byes, but he gets Keenan Allen (@SEA) back. Derrek will hope for big games from Christian McCaffrey (vs. TAM) and Kirk Cousins (vs. DET), as James Conner (@BAL) has a bad matchup. D's team output has tracked almost perfectly with Conner's; that tough Ravens matchup might cause him some anxiety for week nine.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Other Blingamatches

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-2, 3rd) vs. Not an MD (Scott, 4-4, 7th):

All-time series tied, 0-0.

Pulley's weird in that five of his ten top comps are from 2018. Among the others, 2009 Matt is a good best-case comp; Matt was strong, though not dominant, and went onto win Blingabowl II. And who should appear as a worst-case comp once again? Why, that's 2011 Babel!

Scott is on an impressive list of teams that have broken 140 twice in the first eight weeks of a season: 2010 Rabbit, 2013 Matt, 2014 Pulley, and Mike R. and Derrek from this year. The first two on that list won the Sanderson Cup, and everyone but Scott had two Blangums in said games. How many does Scott have? Sadly, zero. Scott's full-season comps aren't as optimistic as the double-140 teams listed above; 2014 Matt, who petered out in the semifinals, is probably his rosiest outlook. (And do I even need to tell you 2011 Babel is on his list, too?)

Pulley's hampered by some byes and injuries this week, as he'll be without Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, and Will Fuller V. But Todd Gurley II (@NO) and Adrian Peterson (vs. ATL) are still around. Scott, of course, has Patrick Mahomes II (@CLE) and Tarik Cohen (@BUF), but DeAndre Hopkins (@DEN) has a tougher matchup than usual.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 3-5, 9th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-3, 6th):

Ed leads all-time series, 7-6.

Somehow, Ed has won five straight in this series. This year, he's become the first team ever to have two losses in which he broke 120 points. He'll be hoping to be like his the 2011 version of his younger brother, who was 3-5 and also had a four game losing streak, but still rallied to the semifinals. But Ed's season could quickly come fully undone, like it did for him last year, where he fell to 13th place by season's end.

Matt might have two more wins than Ed, but he's barely ahead in expected wins (4.27 to 4.22) and, if you're more old fashioned, points (878.24 to 871.26). But don't think Matt's not a strong team; prior to him this season, only 2013 Pulley broke 130 in each of the first two weeks (like the Kevin/Ed comparison above, the 2013 team isn't a strong comp because of the overall scoring environment). Matt's top comps list is highlighted by his own 2011 vintage, which ended the regular season in sixth, but made run to the Blingabowl. He'll hope 2014 Rob is not a better predictor, though, as he'll want to do more than lose in the quarterfinals.

This week, each team gets their first round RB (Ezekiel Elliott for Ed, Melvin Gordon III for Matt) back from a bye; when you combine that with Drew Brees (vs. LAR) and Michael Thomas (vs. LAR) going for Ed and Brandin Cooks (@NO) going for Matt in a battle of high-octane offenses, this matchup could produce a lot of points.

Pick: Live Commish.

Chili Right Away (Dave, 3-5, 12th) vs. Golden Johnson (Richie, 4-4, 8th):

Dave leads all-time series, 4-2.

Dave is just the sixth team to have five games with less than 90 points and yet no Slapped Heartbeats in a season's first eight weeks (the most recent was Allen, last year). Realistically, he shouldn't have any expectations of finishing higher than tenth, like 2014 Allen did. Most likely, he winds up like Matt's 2017 team, who stumbled to a 5-8 finish.

Richie got a big win this week to join 2016 Rabbit as the only teams to start out 0-3 and be .500 or better after eight games. That Rabbit team didn't lose again until the Blingabowl, but was also much better than Richie to start the season. Instead, Richie should look to the 2009 Derrek squad, which ultimately finished in the money. The 2011 Dave team, however, fell all the way to last place when all was said and done.

Richie's best player, Joe Mixon, and his shiny new acquisitions, Golden Tate and David Johnson, are all on bye this week. That would be ominous, if not for the fact Dave has even more players resting this week: his only QB (Carson Wentz), only TE (Eric Ebron), top WR (Odell Beckham, Jr.), and top healthy RB (T.J. Yeldon).

Pick: Golden Johnson.

HuntFournetteOctober (Babel, 3-5, 10th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 3-5, 11th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 7-5.

Babel's team isn't particularly notable, as far as 3-5 teams go. He lost one game where he scored 124.69, but also won a game where he scored 71.44, and it's tough to find an overarching narrative here. One of his comps is his own 2016 team, which did go on to make the playoffs, but another is his 2013 self, which finished second to last.

Rabbit is like Babel, in that a 3-5 is pretty representative of his overall strength (though he at least has a Blangums under his belt). You have to go down to his #8 comp, 2011 Derrek, to find a playoff team; his top comp is last year's version of himself, who lost his last three games and missed the playoffs.

Rabs gets Matt Ryan (@WAS) and Julio Jones (@WAS) back this week. Kareem Hunt (@CLE) has been amazing for Babel, and has a sweet matchup.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Rob for Today (Rob, 7-1, 1st) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 2-6, 13th):

Schertz leads all-time series, 5-3.

Rob is just the ninth team to have clinched an above-.500 season though eight weeks. Yet, because of his relatively low expected win total, the best result on his closest comps list is a second place finish by 2009 Rabbit. And his worst-case outcome might be to finish like 2011 Mike R., who won only one game after week eight.

Schertz has a standard deviation of 10.16 for his first eight weeks' worth of scores, second only to 2008 Babel. The big difference between the two consistent teams is that Babel's average score - even in a low scoring season - was 101.63, whereas Schertz's is 96.20. Currently on a six game losing streak, he'll have to hope he's more like 2008 Katie than anyone else on his comp list; at least she went 3-2 after her own five game skid, though she still missed the playoffs. Or he could finish out the string like 2015 Kevin, who failed to break 90 for the rest of the year.

Rob will be missing A.J. Green and Zach Ertz to byes, but Schertz will be missing Saquon Barkley. Uh oh.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-2, 2nd) vs. NotLooking4TheRepeat (Pat, 0-8, 14th):

Mike R. leads all-time series, 6-4.

Mike is looking to continue our trend of last-to-first; 2016 Kevin and 2017 Derrek both finished in the cellar the year before, but established themselves as contenders early in their championship seasons. Neither is a great comp for Mike, who instead should look for similarities with 2013 Matt, who also lost his first game and fell just short of a point milestone after week eight (Matt had 949.99 points, Mike R. currently has 999.82, both were the highest ever when they happened). But Mike will want to avoid being like a different historical Derrek team: the 2008 version was 6-2 but lost his last five to miss the playoffs.

Pat is our first 0-8 team ever. None of his top comps have gone undefeated over their last five games, but 2010 Allen did go 4-1. Pat's recent 100-point streak means he should at least match 2012 Richie and get a win; I hope so, because 0-13 is not something I want to see.

Mike avoids any bye week issues this week, while Pat will have to make do without Alshon Jeffery and Christian Kirk. Uh oh.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Closing Thoughts

It's somewhat notable that Scott, Kevin, Ed, Babel, Schertz, and (of course) Pat all have lost each of their highest scoring games of the year so far. This had only happened fourteen times through week eight prior to this year. The full list:

Here is the list for full seasons where teams lost their highest scoring game: