The Sanderson Gazette - 2018-11-07 - Consequential Choices

"It was killer. You were dropping eating-the-mayor jokes while Rob and Mike kept talking about tall men failing in basketball. Shame on them." - Richie

"Well Chubbs are happening." - Richie again

Week 9 Recap

Pulley def. Scott, 125.41-110.01:

Pulley was actually below zero after the noon games, but then his newest players, Drew Brees (34.90) and Michael Thomas (34.13), put up over 69 points. Scott nearly matched him at the QB slot, with Patrick Mahomes II's 29.55, but took his second straight tough loss and fell to 4-5 on the year.

Matt def. Ed, 103.74-92.60:

Matt saw that Rob Gronkowski was out on Sunday night and scrambled for a replacement tight end in Jonnu Smith (10.40). That didn't really matter, as Dak Prescott (14.75) didn't score enough on Monday night to pass him even with no TE points. Todd Gurley II (14.27) disappointed for Ed, while Brandin Cooks (21.20) shined in the same game for Matt.

Richie def. Dave, 66.57-61.29:

Richie needed just over four points from Derrick Henry on Monday night and got a touchdown and 9.37 total. Dave purposefully played two injured players (Allen Robinson II, Sony Michel), because he didn't want to drop any of his other injured or bye week players.

Rabbit def. Babel, 96.36-96.25:

This wasn't the prettiest game or the one with the most playoff implications, but it was the third closest of all time (though only the second closest of the last two weeks). Rabs got 30.50 from Matt Ryan and 22.13 from Julio Jones, though Babel beat that with 33.25 from Jared Goff and 33.77 from Kareem Hunt. It was the Buffalo defense's -1.00 for Babel that made the ultimate difference.

Derrek def. Kevin, 126.61-105.26:

Alvin Kamara (30.73) almost saved Kevin's week, but he was going up against too strong an opponent. D got 30.30 from Christian McCaffrey, 24.17 from James Conner, and 22.00 from the Minnesota defense and won this one fairly comfortably, moving to 6-3 in the process.

Mike R. def. Pat, 140.12-92.27:

Mike continued rolling, getting 22 or more points from Tevin Coleman (29.87), Travis Kelce (25.20), James White (24.70), and Cam Newton (22.65). Pat did get 25.00 from the Miami defense, but fell to 0-9 (and was officially eliminated from playoff contention).

Schertz def. Rob, 140.11-70.66:

Schertz just missed Team Blangums, which would have salvaged something from his lost season, despite not having Saquon Barkley. He was led by the Chicago defense (28.00) and Josh Gordon (23.33). Rob suffered through 1.07 from DeVante Parker and 1.70 from Mark Ingram.

Standings

  1. Mike R., 7-2, 1139.94
  2. Pulley, 7-2, 1058.03
  3. Rob, 7-2, 958.41
  4. Derrek, 6-3, 1091.95
  5. Matt, 6-3, 981.98
  6. Kevin, 5-4, 1022.95
  7. Richie, 5-4, 903.61
  8. Scott, 4-5, 1024.99
  9. Rabbit, 4-5, 899.56
  10. Ed, 3-6, 963.86
  11. Schertz, 3-6, 909.72
  12. Babel, 3-6, 906.68
  13. Dave, 3-6, 821.03
  14. Pat, 0-9, 733.74 (e)

(e) eliminated from playoff contention

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Mike R. takes home his fourth Team Blangums of the year. He edged out Schertz by only 0.01, the second time ever Blangums has had a margin of under 0.05.

Slapped Heartbeat:

It's not surprising Dave's byes and injuries led him to a 61.29

Weekly MVP:

Michael Thomas (34.13) will take this for Pulley.

Dud of the Week:

The Buffalo defense scored -1.00 for Babel.

Start of the Week:

Richie played Duke Johnson, Jr. (23.20) over Jordy Nelson (2.13) and Randall Cobb (3.20).

Misplay of the Week:

Babel should have stuck with a defense on their bye (Jacksonville), as the Bills put up -1.00 for him.

Pickup of the Week:

Rabbit picked up Giorgio Tavecchio, who put up 8.00 points from the kicker position in a game with a 0.11 point margin.

Special Feature: The Scott / Richie Trade

Since we had a trade that was discussed in the Blingachat more than usual, let's track how it plays out for the rest of the year.

Week 9

  • Scott's side: Hopkins, 20.00; Cooper, 13.73

  • Richie's side: Johnson, 0 (bye); Tate 0 (bye); replacements, 29.60 (Jalen Richard and Duke Johnson, Jr.)

  • Net: Scott +4.13

Season

  • Scott's side: Hopkins, 42.93; Cooper, 13.73; replacements, 4.00

  • Richie's side: Johnson, 11.37; Tate, 6.97; replacements, 29.60

  • Net: Scott +12.72

  • Weeks with Winning Side: Scott 2, Richie 0

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

  • 0-9: 0% (0% with week 10 win, 0% with loss)

  • 1-8: 0% (0% with week 10 win, 0% with loss)

  • 2-7: 0% (0% with week 10 win, 0% with loss)

  • 3-6: 0% (0% with week 10 win, 0% with loss)

  • 4-5: 29% (44% with week 10 win, 17% with loss)

  • 5-4: 50% (70% with week 10 win, 25% with loss)

  • 6-3: 100% (100% with week 10 win, 100% with loss)

  • 7-2: 100% (100% with week 10 win, 100% with loss)

  • 8-1: 100% (100% with week 10 win, 100% with loss)

  • 9-0: 100% (100% with week 10 win, 100% with loss)

Week 10 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-3, 4th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-2, 2nd):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-5.

The last four games in this series have featured three Team Blangums (all by Pulley) and two Slapped Heartbeats (both by Derrek).

D's biggest choice of the year was at the end of the thirteenth round. With Le'Veon Bell already on board, he decided to take James Conner (vs. CAR) as a handcuff. Conner has filled in admirably for Bell, who still has not reported to the team, and has been a key player as Derrek has scored more points through nine weeks than anyone has before.

As good as D's season has been, he still trails Pulley in the standings. Adam has won seven or more games through nine weeks four times in the last five seasons, and made a huge choice last week when he traded Todd Gurley as part of a ten-player deal. The consequences of that move look positive so far, as Drew Brees (@CIN) and Michael Thomas (@CIN) both scored more than 34 points last week. It remains to be seen how the rest of the season goes.

This week, Derrek is missing three important players: Kirk Cousins, Emmanuel Sanders, and the Minnesota defense. If the Thursday night game, featuring Conner and Christian McCaffrey (@PIT), turns into a shootout, he still could win. If not. Pulley should move to 8-2 for the second straight year.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Other Blingamatches

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 5-4, 6th) vs. Not an MD (Scott, 4-5, 8th):

All-time series tied, 0-0.

Kevin keeping Alvin Kamara (@CIN) for a 14th round pick was a no-brainer. His second keeper was a tougher choice. He opted to keep Keenan Allen (@OAK) for a third rounder over DeAndre Hopkins for a first. Allen hasn't been bad, but he has not been at Hopkins's level (and Kevin's actual first round pick, Devonta Freeman, has been hurt all year), so it's easy to point at that as a reason Kev is "only" 5-4.

Scott's biggest choice was who to take at #1 overall. He went with David Johnson over Ezekiel Elliott, but it probably didn't matter, as he likely could have shipped either disappointing high pick to Richie for DeAndre Hopkins (bye). Patrick Mahomes II (vs. ARI) has made up for a lot, though a few tough, Kev-style losses have Scott currently on the outside of the playoff picture.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 4-5, 9th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 7-2, 3rd):

Rob leads all-time series, 8-4.

Rabs took a risk with LeSean McCoy (@NYJ) in the second round. At the time, it seemed risky due to McCoy's ambiguous legal situation; in retrospect, it looks risky because of the Bills' utter ineptitude on offense and McCoy's age. Either way, the lack of a reliable second round talent is a big reason why he's third to last in points.

Rob's most significant choice was probably a non-choice; after keeping Deshaun Watson (bye) and Zach Ertz (vs. DAL) and drafting A.J. Green (vs. NO, injured) and Tyreek Hill (vs. ARI) in the first two rounds, he was left with RB as his fifth best starter. That hasn't derailed his team at all, but it has forced a few subsequent decisions to fill the weakness in his lineup.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 6-3, 5th) vs. HuntFournetteOctober (Babel, 3-6, 12th):

Matt leads all-time series, 8-3.

Matt was faced with a choice in the second round: with Evan Engram (@SF) already on board, should he take the sliding Rob Gronkowski (@TEN)? He did, and... it hasn't really affected him much. On paper, it looked awesome, but Gronkowski looks like a shell of his former self. And yet, Matt's still 6-3. This was a waste of a Gazette paragraph.

Babel could have kept Matt's first round choice, Melvin Gordon III (@OAK), but instead kept Leonard Fournette (@IND) for three picks later. Fournette's missed six games this year, though looks to return this week. I think Babel would rather have Gordon.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 7-2, 1st) vs. Chili Right Away (Dave, 3-6, 13th):

Dave leads all-time series, 7-3.

Clearly, drafting James White (@TEN) in the 11th round was a great choice, but Mike's season has probably been more affected by the choice of Matt's highlighted above. If Matt had passed on Gronkowski, Mike would have wound up with him over Travis Kelce (vs. ARI), and his team - the only one to ever crack 1100 points through nine weeks and one of only three to have four Blangums through nine - would be a good deal worse.

Dave's season really came down to his choice to go all-in last year, as he was left with Carson Wentz (vs. DAL) and Chris Thompson (@TAM) as mid-round keepers. It made a ton of sense at the time - his team was probably the best in the league last year - but it had serious consequences this year.

And let's look at the recent trade between the two. Mike R. gave up White, a top RB this year, and some other keeper value for Odell Beckham, Jr. (@SF) and Sony Michel (@TEN). It's a bold move for a team already at the top of the standings; will it pay off in the playoffs?

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Ova 4-4 40 boys (Richie, 5-4, 7th) vs. NotLooking4TheRepeat (Pat, 0-9. 14th):

Pat leads all-time series, 5-1.

Richie's biggest move of the year - trading DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper for David Johnson (@KC) and Golden Tate (vs. DAL) - has been a net loss so far, yet he's 2-0 since the trade (and Scott is 0-2 despite outscoring him both weeks). If Johnson can trend upward as the season continues, we could be looking at an unlikely playoff team.

Pat chose Dalvin Cook in the first round, which didn't seem like a bad decision. But Cook's injury, combined with a lackluster roster around him, have made Pat the first team ever eliminated before week ten, and now he's made the choice to trade him for potential keepers, like Matt Breida (vs. NYG).

Pick: Ova 4-4 40 boys.

Live Commish (Ed, 3-6, 10th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 3-6, 11th):

Schertz leads all-time series, 5-1.

Ed chose to trade his three best players for Todd Gurley (vs. SEA) last week. It cost him a win and Team Blangums, and pretty much shut the door on his longshot playoff hopes. At least Gurley is a good keeper, but those are some nasty immediate consequences.

Schertz was the first person to take a QB in the draft, selecting Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA) in the second round. Because Rodgers has just been a good QB (11th overall), that gamble resulted in a team with very little in the way of playoff hopes.

Pick: Live Commish.

Closing Thoughts

I brought up the closest Blangums winner earlier. Here are the ten closest Blangums margins (the top score over the second highest score) of all time:

  1. Week 9, 2018: 0.01 (Mike R. over Schertz)

  2. Week 8, 2012: 0.03 (Mike R. over Matt)

  3. Week 8, 2018: 0.10 (Derrek over Scott)

  4. Week 5, 2008: 0.12 (Allen over Pulley)

  5. Week 2, 2014: 0.13 (Pulley over Mike R.)

  6. Week 2, 2018: 0.22 (Mike R. over Rob)

  7. Week 9, 2008: 0.27 (Kevin over Babel)

  8. Week 6, 2008: 0.56 (Derrek over Rob)

  9. Week 13, 2011: 0.60 (Rabbit over Pulley)

  10. Week 1, 2011: 0.65 (Rob over Allen)