The Sanderson Gazette - 2018-11-28 - High Stakes
We have one week before the playoffs start, and no byes have been clinched. You have to go back to 2012 (and 2011) to find a similar situation.
Week 12 Recap
Week 12 was the fifth highest scoring week of all time.
Rabbit def. Pulley, 117.25-107.05:
And just like that, Rabs is in sixth place. Despite heading into Monday night with a lead of more than 15 points, he had to sweat it out, as Jonnu Smith (14.40) had an early long touchdown for Pulley. But Houston's defense (9.00) clamped down after that, getting Rabs a clutch victory. LeGarrette Blount's 22.80 on Thanksgiving was the high score for Rabbit (and this matchup overall), while Drew Brees (21.65) and Michael Thomas (5.07) came back down to Earth for his opponent.
Derrek def. Babel, 145.84-116.00:
Christian McCaffrey (39.43) went off for D (who must be happy he didn't lose any of his three fumbles!), and Kirk Cousins added 29.80, moving our defending champion into first place. Babel got 28.50 from Baker Mayfield, but the Jacksonville defense (-1.00) went negative as he fell to 4-8.
Rob def. Kevin, 121.01-97.44:
Kevin's 100-point streak came to an end, but more significantly, his second straight loss pushed him out of playoff position. Perhaps he was too busy performing a different service to the Blingleague? Rob's Houston WRs, DeAndre Hopkins (9.87) and Keke Coutee (1.87) disappointed, but Calvin Ridley (16.40), Zach Ertz (18.13), and Dalvin Cook (15.17) delivered enough to get him a playoff-clinching victory.
Ed def. Mike R., 117.02-106.40:
Despite Todd Gurley II's bye, Ed pulled off a serious upset, with Andrew Luck (25.68) and Kenyan Drake (23.73) leading the way. Mike got big games from Adam Thielen (22.67) and Sony Michel (20.90), but now finds himself at risk of not getting a bye.
Matt def. Pat, 139.96-114.90:
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 97 yard touchdown drove his 31.20 points, which was enough to overcome Lamar Miller's own 97 yard touchdown and 22.87 for Pat and clinch a playoff berth for Matt. Two Charger RBs, Melvin Gordon III (18.77) and Austin Ekeler (18.57) both had strong games for our Monster Heel, as well.
Scott def. Dave, 139.70-82.53:
Big Monday night performances from Corey Davis (22.70) and Demaryius Thomas (17.07) nearly got Scott a surprise Blangums, but he couldn't quite get there. Dave played an injured Tre'Quan Smith (0.00), but that didn't wind up mattering.
Schertz def. Richie, 92.24-66.38:
This dud of a game was decided by special teams. Justin Tucker (11.00) and the Chicago defense (13.00) put up 24.00 for Schertz. Mason Crosby (5.00) and the Cincinnati defense (-7.00) combined for -2.00 for Richie. Schertz won by less than that 26 point net.
Standings
- Derrek, 9-3, 1444.28 (x)
- Mike R., 8-4, 1454.90 (x)
- Pulley, 8-4, 1432.51 (x)
- Matt, 8-4, 1363.08 (x)
- Rob, 8-4, 1246.01 (x)
- Rabbit, 7-5, 1264.43
- Kevin, 6-6, 1355.68
- Scott, 5-7, 1386.73 (e)
- Ed, 5-7, 1282.92 (e)
- Schertz, 5-7, 1229.85 (e)
- Richie, 5-7, 1128.39 (e)
- Babel, 4-8, 1277.73 (e)
- Dave, 4-8, 1096.35 (e)
- Pat, 2-10, 1060.97 (e)
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums:
Derrek's 145.84 earned him his fourth Team Blangums award this year.
Slapped Heartbeat:
Richie's 66.38 is the fifth lowest score this year.
Weekly MVP:
Christian McCaffrey's 39.43 was a big part of D's moneymaking week.
Dud of the Week:
The Bengals defense bottomed out at -7.00 for Richie.
Start of the Week:
Rabbit smartly played LeGarrette Blount and his 22.80 points over Isaiah Crowell (7.00) and Jamal Williams (0.50).
Misplay of the Week:
If Mike R. had played Tyler Lockett (20.07) over Tevin Coleman (8.87) he'd have improved to 9-3 on the year.
Pickup of the Week:
Ed picked up Gus Edwards and inserted his 11.80 points into his lineup.
Blessed Cahoots:
See the Schertz victory above, entirely driven by special teams.
Playoff Scenarios
Derrek has clinched a playoff berth.
Derrek clinches a bye (and first place overall) with:
- a win.
Mike R. has clinched a playoff berth.
Pulley has clinched a playoff berth.
Matt has clinched a playoff berth.
Rob has clinched a playoff berth.
Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win
OR
- a Kevin loss.
(Scott, Ed, Schertz, Richie, Babel, Dave, and Pat have been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Playoff Scenarios, Part II
Because our four 8-4 teams play each other, only Derrek controls his own destiny to get a bye. Let's start with him.
D finishes in first as long as he beats Rabbit. If he loses to Rabbit, he could fall to third place, as both Mike R. and Pulley could win and pass him in points (Mike is already ahead in points).
Mike R. and Pulley are in similar situation, as they could finish anywhere from first to fifth. Because they are so close to each other in points, simply winning doesn't guarantee them anything. And if either loses, they'll fall behind their victorious rival in record and can finish no better than fourth.
Matt's best hope for a bye is if he beats Mike and Rob defeats Pulley. He'd then be ahead of Mike and Pulley in record, and he's got enough cushion on Rob that he'll get the second bye. If he loses, he'll finish in fourth (if Rob wins) or fifth (if Pulley wins).
Because of his low point total, Rob doesn't have a realistic shot at a bye (he'd have to win and make up over 100 points on Matt or over 200 on Mike). He can fall to sixth if he loses and Rabbit wins.
Rabbit is in with a win due to his one-game cushion on Kevin. But if he loses and Kevin wins, it's almost certain that Kevin will pass him to make the playoffs.
Record Watch
Mike R. and Derrek are already among the top ten point scorers of all time. Mike needs 129 points to break 2010 Rabbit's all-time record, while D needs 139. Pulley is currently 12th in all-time total points and would need 141 to break the record. Scott (needs 80 points), Matt (104), and Kevin (111) are also in position to finish in the top ten ever. This year has been crazy.
Pat needs 57 points to avoid appearing on the list of ten lowest point totals ever.
Derrek, Pulley, and Mike R. are also currently among the teams with the highest median scores of all time.
Kevin currently has the highest minimum score of all time, and will hold onto that if he scores at least 95.15 points this week. If he scores between 102 and 124, he'll become our most consistent team ever.
As it stands, Mike R. and Pulley could appear among the teams with the highest odds of going 13-0, while Pat, Dave, and Richie could appear on the equivalent 0-13 list.
Week 13 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
D's Nuts (Derrek, 9-3, 1st) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 7-5, 6th):
Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-4.
Derrek is looking to earn a bye for the first time in franchise history. He's already set a franchise record with nine wins. (Strangely, he's only ever won a playoff game as the #5 seed, which is an impossible finish this year.)
Rabbit, meanwhile, is in the same place he was in heading into Rivalry Week last season: sixth. He wasn't actually that good a year ago, and got crushed by Pat to miss the playoffs. This year, he's actually worse by expected wins (10th vs. 9th); does that mean he's destined to lose and get passed by Kevin? He's won his last four games to get into this spot by less than 30 points combined.
Derrek's gotten consistent WR1 results from Davante Adams (vs. ARI), which should continue this week, and Christian McCaffrey (@TAM) has a great matchup. James Conner (vs. LAC), as always, is a wildcard. But this is not a great week for Rabbit's team, matchup-wise. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones take on the stingy Ravens defense; without big games from them, can he take down our current king?
Pick: D's Nuts.
Other Blingamatches
Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 8-4, 2nd) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 8-4, 4th):
Matt leads all-time series, 10-4.
The last time Mike was in position for a bye after 12 weeks, Matt beat him in Rivalry Week and stole second place away from him. Mike then lost in the quarterfinals, and what had been one of the strongest years we'd seen up to that point went for naught.
Matt's last three weeks have been a microcosm of his season: break 140 to start, fall off a bit, then come back nearly as strong. His hopes for a bye rely not only on him defeating Mike, but also Rob defeating Pulley; stranger things have happened, but Matt should probably plan on playing next week.
This week, both Mike (Cam Newton (@TAM)) and Matt (Russell Wilson (@SF)) have good matchups for their QBs. But while Mike's stellar WR corps - Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. CHI), Antonio Brown (vs. LAC), and Adam Thielen (@NE) - are all healthy, Matt can't say the same of his team strength, Melvin Gordon III (out). If Austin Ekeler (@PIT) can't fill Gordon's shoes, it could be a long day for the Hammers.
Pick: Bernie's Bullies.
Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 8-4, 3rd) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 8-4, 5th):
Rob leads all-time series, 8-7.
A lot is riding on this game for Pulley. He needs a win not only to have a chance a a bye, but to finish in the top three for a remarkable sixth straight year. And of course, there's the usual intense stakes of the Clash of Hatred.
With his victory in week 11, Rob has far less on the line. Even if Matt beat Mike 0.00 to -1.00, Rob would still need to score 117.08 points himself while beating Pulley to move up to third place.
A.J. Green (vs. DEN) might play for Rob, but he has a bad matchup (and worse quarterback) if he does. Pulley once again will have his week shaped by Thursday night players, as Drew Brees (@DAL), Michael Thomas (@DAL), and Ezekiel Elliott (vs. NO) all play the first game of the week.
Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.
Chili Right Away (Dave, 4-8, 13th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-6, 7th):
Kevin leads all-time series, 10-3.
Rivalry Week, 2012: Kevin was 4-8 and Dave was 6-6, needing a win to make the playoffs. An upset victory by Kevin kept his cousin out of the playoffs (and enabled the fabled Babel "Video Game Bosses" playoff run). Dave can get his revenge in 2018.
Kevin's epic, 20 game (regular season) 100-point streak came to an end in week 12, and the loss that resulted has moved him out of playoff position (despite being fifth in expected wins). Even if he rights his ship, he needs some help from Derrek to sneak into the playoffs.
Kevin's team looks better across the board in this one, except at TE (Eric Ebron (@JAC) is having a great year for Dave; Cameron Brate (vs. CAR) just recently joined Kev's team).
Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.
Live Commish (Ed, 5-7, 9th) vs. HuntFournetteOctober (Babel, 4-8, 12th):
Babel leads all-time series, 10-4.
Babel is Ed's top comp through 12 weeks, and Ed is Babel's #2. Both teams wished for better. Both want that Timberwolves hat.
Ed gets Todd Gurley II (@DET) back from bye, while Babel gets Kareem Hunt (@OAK) in the same situation. Both have fantastic matchups.
Pick: Live Commish.
Ova 4-4 40 boys (Richie, 5-7, 11th) vs. Not an MD (Scott, 5-7, 8th):
All-time series tied, 0-0.
Richie is near the bottom of the league in points and expected wins, but was alive for the playoffs just two weeks ago. Scott is near the top in both measures, but has been out of the race for several weeks.
Pick: Not an MD.
The Vistas are Back (Pat, 2-10, 14th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-7, 10th):
All-time series tied, 3-3.
It's fitting that neither of these guys has the upper hand as they start their rivalry. Pat's team has been frisky lately, with Nick Chubb (@HOU) having some big weeks, but Schertz has had his own rookie star, Saquon Barkley (vs. CHI), all season.
Pick: schertzopotamus.
Closing Thoughts
Because of the high scoring environment this year, a good portion of the Blingaleague can set their franchise record for most points in a season. Not counting Scott, here is what everyone needs to set a new personal best!
Derrek: 0 (previous high was 1316.34 in 2009)
Mike R.: 23 (1477.68 in 2012)
Ed: 101 (1383.27 in 2013)
Pulley: 104 (1536.47 in 2015)
Kevin: 111 (1466.52 in 2016)
Babel: 130 (1407.48 in 2014)
Schertz: 158 (1387.32 in 2016)
Matt: 159 (1521.16 in 2013)
Pat: 173 (1233.54 in 2009)
Rob: 176 (1421.02 in 2011)
Richie: 250 (1377.88 in 2015)
Rabbit: 310 (1573.45 in 2010)
Dave: 326 (1421.71 in 2014)