Mike: "I'm at a Christmas party. I was promised an open bar. It's not an open bar."

Dave: "That is utter bullshit. You should riot."

Mike: "It's a National Guard Christmas party. If I start a riot, they don't even need to call anyone in."

Semifinals Recap

Not counting the fifth-place game, this year's semifinals had an average score of 93.18 and an average margin of 5.95.

The only year with a lower average score was 2015 (thanks to Richie's all-time horrible score).

No other year has had a smaller margin, though. The next closest was 2012, at 19.40. The largest margin this week was 6.25; prior to this year, only seven playoff games have ever had a margin that close.

Matt def. Mike R., 80.92-75.27:

"Matt has been working his interns to the bone trying to find weaknesses in Cam's floorboards. I just pray they've failed in their mission, regardless of their personal fate." - Mike

"I would hate to see the Matt intern boneyard. It's not if, but when you end up there. Can't imagine the thoughts going through the intern's mind whose job it is to maintain the intern boneyard." - Babel

If I had to pick which one of our semifinals was the most devastating, I'd pick this one. Mike needed just 9.71 points from Cam Newton on Monday night to advance to Blingabowl XI. It seemed like a good bet; even though Newton was coming off his worst score of the year, that score was still 13.05. Alas, Mike's fatalism proved correct, and Newton put up a meager 4.05.

But Mike can't blame Newton for his entire team's flop. Adam Thielen managed only 2.53, Jarvis Landry 4.93, Sony Michel 5.90, and Travis Kelce 8.13.

Of course, Matt's team also shit the bed. Chris Godwin put up a healthy zero, and Jeff Wilson, Jr. (2.60), Rob Gronkowski (2.80), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (5.33) all had awful weeks. too. But the Atlanta defense came through with 20.00, and now Matt is one win away from the Sanderson Cup.

Derrek def. Kevin, 111.39-105.14:

Kevin's Monday night odds weren't quite as promising as Mike's, but this still wound up being a devastating loss. Kev trailed by just over a point, and while he had Alvin Kamara (17.50) yet to play, Derrek had Christian McCaffrey (20.73) and Ian Thomas (1.87). Kamara and McCaffrey both had good games, and Kev trailed by less than a touchdown in the final minute, with the Saints in the red zone. But instead of giving the ball to Kamara (or even Mark Ingram), Sean Payton had Tommylee Lewis run a sweep, and the WR lost the ball through the end zone. Would Kamara have scored there? You have to think he'd have had better odds than Lewis, so Kev can point to Payton's curious playcalling as a contributing factor to this loss.

But let's not discount the week D had. While his total score wasn't historically notable, it was still impressive. Just like last year, his midseason kicker pickup was key, as Ka'imi Fairbairn put up an outstanding 22.00, while his best players - McCaffrey and Davante Adams (17.87) - delivered as expected.

Fifth-Place Game Recap

Rob def. Pulley, 142.44-59.99:

"Here comes Rob to tell us the NBA regular season is a Christmas movie because they play a few games on Christmas." - Babel

This was the largest margin of victory ever in the long and storied history of the Clash of Hatred.

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Derrek's 111.39 made him the only semifinalist to break the 2018 median score.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Mike's 75.27 didn't deserve to win.

Weekly MVP:

Believe it or not, Ka'imi Fairbairn (22.00) was the highest scoring player on the highest scoring semifinalist. While that's not a strict requirement for weekly MVP, it's good enough for me this week.

Dud of the Week:

Cam Newton's 4.05 was an all-time dud for Mike.

Start of the Week:

Even D left points on his bench. No one gets this.

Misplay of the Week:

Mike played Sony Michel (5.90) over Tevin Coleman (20.50). He also could have played Josh Allen (21.30) over Newton, but that would have been a hell of a bold move.

Pickup of the Week:

Matt added the Atlanta defense and wound up with 20 crucial points.

Blessed Cahoots:

Derrek had a really good week, but he's still lucky Keenan Allen got injured early and put up zero points for Kevin.

Season Postmortems

Kevin Pattermann, 7-6, 1452.59 points, 6th, 7.57 expected wins

Kevin set a record for the highest minimum score for a season, never falling below 96.91. He gutted out a quarterfinals victory against Pulley, but then was on the wrong side of a similar game in the semis.

It's easy to look at Kevin's season, where he broke 100 the first eleven weeks, and conclude he was unlucky to win only seven games and barely make the playoffs. But when you put it in the context of the 2018 season, where the league average score (by mean or median) was over 106, seven wins looks about right.

Funny enough, his most similar historical team is the 2009 version of himself. That was another team that had no truly bad games (a low score of 81.28) and made the playoffs as the sixth seed. Unlike this year's version, however, 2009 Kevin lost in the quarterfinals.

Mike Romor, 9-4, 1595.71 points, 2nd, 8.48 expected wins

Mike also appears as a #1 on our Top Seasons page, as he scored more points this year than anyone had before. He also earned a bye (and made the semifinals) for the first time in franchise history.

And even though the context of 2018 means that total points record is less impressive than it sounds, Mike still had a season to remember. His 8.48 expected wins puts him 15th best of all time.

His top comp is 2013 Ed, a historically forgotten team that was top two by expected wins over the course of the season. Like Mike, 2013 Ed saved his by-far worst score for week fifteen (though he had already lost in the quarterfinals the week before).

Blingabowl XI Preview

#1 D's Nuts (Derrek, 11-3) vs. #4 Harrison Hammers (Matt, 10-5)

Matt leads all-time series, 7-6.

Last year, Derrek returned to the playoffs after a five-year absence and rode a hot streak to his first Sanderson Cup win. This year, despite a minor blip in weeks 3-4 that pushed him to seventh place, he was a solid contender throughout. He took home four Team blangums awards (twice denying his Blingabowl opponent the honor) and finished with the third most points ever. Seeing Derrek in Blingabowl XI is far from surprising.

It seemed like everyone liked Matt's post-draft roster, and he never fell below sixth place all season. But outside a week eight Slapped Heartbeat, his three worst scores have come the past three weeks. It's easy to blame an injured Melvin Gordon III for that, but the rest of his team has been below average, as well.

This week, Gordon (vs. BAL) should be back for Matt, but against a strong defense. Russell Wilson (vs. KC) could get into a shootout, and the Denver defense (@OAK) has a juicy opponent of its own. Derrek will hope James Conner (@NO) will also return against a team that just gave up 20 points to his other RB, Christian McCaffrey (vs. ATL). And as always, he's got Davante Adams (@NYJ).

This game is hard to predict, given the injury situation. I'll go with my gut, and predict D to become our first repeat champion since 2012-2013 Matt.

Pick: D's Nuts.

Third-Place Game Preview

#2 Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 9-5) vs. #6 The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 8-7)

Mike R. leads all-time series, 6-5.

These guys have three of our four previous last-place finishes, so meeting in the third-place game is an accomplishment of sorts!

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Closing Thoughts

The odds for the #1 pick in 2019 are:

• Pat: 24.60%

• Dave: 16.84%

• Babel: 16.02%

• Richie: 12.96%

• Schertz: 8.64%

• Ed: 8.40%

• Scott: 7.74%

• Rabbit: 4.80%

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