The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-10-02 - The Vistas are Back
Pulley: "Gazette is always a nice read."
Mike R.: "Yeah, I've had to take my poops six hours earlier now that Ed's publishing in the UK."
Week 4 Recap
Pat def. Babel, 131.67-92.84:
Pat waited nearly ten years for this! His last Team Blangums was in week six, 2009. Let's recall October 2009 for a minute: Barack Obama was less than a year into his first term as President; the Giants, Broncos, Bengals, and Cardinals were all in first place in their divisions; Sidney Rice and Thomas Jones led the league in receiving and rushing yards, respectively; and, most importantly, The Sanderson Gazette was still six weeks away from its debut.
Back to the present: Nick Chubb (36.90) and Leonard Fournette (25.17) were Pat's high scorers, and no one on his team really disappointed. Babel also had lack of duds while putting up his own high score for the year, but his lack of standout performances - Baker Mayfield's 18.70 paced his team - resulted in a blowout.
Matt def. Kevin, 119.19-93.76:
Matt took a page out of Pulley's playbook and got 19.00 from his defense (Pittsburgh) to challenge for Blangums himself. He once again failed to play the right QB, as Jameis Winston (32.15) outscored Lamar Jackson (24.95), but that didn't matter. Kevin got far less than expected from Keenan Allen (6.40) and Marlon Mack (3.90) and barely halved his week three score.
Richie def. Dave, 99.26-96.01:
Kenny Golladay (20.93) had a two-touchdown day for Richie, and Joe Mixon (6.33) scored just enough on Monday night to get him the victory. Dave finally got a good game from Aaron Rodgers (29.20), and Greg Zuerlein added 13.00, but he fell to 0-4 on the season.
Pulley def. Mike R., 83.40-67.96:
This one has to hurt for Mike. He had a chance to pull to 2-2 on the season and hand Pulley his first loss, but instead, his team at times seemed to be actively sabotaging him. Cooper Kupp (21.93) can't take any of the blame, but even his only other double digit scorer, Kerryon Johnson (14.77), seemed to be actively avoiding the end zone, even fumbling at the one yard line. Pulley's shrewd Wayne Gallman, Jr. (23.63) pickup was key, as was yet another great week from the New England defense (25.00).
Rabbit def. Schertz, 122.79-92.60:
Rabs quietly put up our second highest score of the week, with Davante Adams (24.00) and Robert Woods (21.87) leading the way. For Schertz, Courtland Sutton (20.27) and the Chicago defense (17.00) couldn't make up for lackluster days from Mecole Hardman (-0.80) and Delanie Walker (0.53).
Rob def. Ed, 106.19-66.53:
If Mike's team was actively sabotaging him, Ed's team just kind of forgot to even show up. Ronald Jones II (14.60) proved to be a good pickup, but he was the only bright spot on the day. Jared Goff (24.85) put up the worst 500-yard, 24-point fantasy game in history for Rob, but Jarvis Landry (22.27) came through to carry the younger Gross to victory.
Derrek def. Scott, 101.63-66.55:
Christian McCaffrey (26.77) continued to produce like a machine for Derrek, and James Conner (21.27) finally broke out, resulting in a blowout win. Scott needed a late Josh Lambo (15.00) field goal to narrowly avoid getting his heartbeat slapped (more on that later).
Standings
- Pulley, 4-0, 511.06
- Matt, 3-1, 485.20
- Rob, 3-1, 405.64
- Schertz, 2-2, 504.59
- Kevin, 2-2, 472.74
- Pat, 2-2, 417.05
- Derrek, 2-2, 404.09
- Rabbit, 2-2, 389.28
- Richie, 2-2, 384.89
- Ed, 2-2, 377.59
- Babel, 2-2, 332.15
- Scott, 1-3, 384.01
- Mike R., 1-3, 345.67
- Dave, 0-4, 337.89
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums:
Pat went nine years and ten weeks without winning Team Blangums, until he put up 131.67 this week. Now that his streak of futility is over, we look to Richie, who hasn't won the award since week eight, 2015.
Slapped Heartbeat:
Ed's 66.53 was only 0.02 worse than Scott's 66.55. Remarkably, that is not the thinnest margin to ever decide whose heartbeat was slapped. In week five, 2012, Dave finished 0.01 worse than Schertz.
Weekly MVP:
Nick Chubb scored 36.90 for Pat.
Dud of the Week:
Mecole Hardman (-0.80) dipped into the negative for Schertz.
Start of the Week:
We only had one close game, and the winner of that (Richie) actually left some points on his bench. This award will go vacant for the week.
Misplay of the Week:
Mike R. left Jordan Howard (30.43) on his bench in favor of one of Sony Michel (6.30), Demarcus Robinson (4.67), or Calvin Ridley (4.27). He lost by less than sixteen points.
Pickup of the Week:
This has to go to Pulley, who needed Wayne Gallman, Jr.'s 23.63 to avoid a really poor showing.
Blessed Cahoots:
I feel like this could go to Pulley every week the Patriots defense continues to put up silly high scores, because there's no way that's sustainable, right? And yet, here we are, four weeks in, and they have 89 points on the year. Two hundred points, bitches?
Pryor Play of the Week:
Lots of good candidates here. Aaron Rodgers (29.20 for Dave) and James Conner (21.27 for Derrek) both finally put up totals their owners have been expecting all year, but I'll give this to the #1 overall pick, Davante Adams, whose 24.00 finally justified his draft slot.
Playoff Odds
Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:
0-4: 0% (0% with week 5 win, 0% with loss)
1-3: 22% (18% with week 5 win, 25% with loss)
2-2: 33% (53% with week 5 win, 17% with loss)
3-1: 81% (80% with week 5 win, 83% with loss)
4-0: 100% (100% with week 5 win, 100% with loss)
Week 5 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-0, 1st) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 2-2, 4th)
Pulley leads all-time series, 8-1.
Pulley is 4-0, thanks largely to his Patriots-heavy roster. And this week, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and the New England defense play at Washington. Uh oh for Schertz.
Speaking of Schertz, despite being two games worse than Pulley in the standings, he actually has a better all-play record (39-13 vs. 38-14) thanks to his consistently high scores (77% chance of having 3+ wins at this point). He'll hope Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett can have huge Thursday night totals hosting the Rams, or else his week could be over early.
Fun fact: through week four, these two guys are each other's most similar historical team.
Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.
Other Blingamatches
Rob for Today (Rob, 3-1, 3rd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 2-2, 5th)
Rob leads all-time series, 9-4.
Rob's all-play record is merely .500 (26-26); he has three 100+ weeks, but in the other week, he was very close to the bottom. It looks like he'll make the bold move of starting Jacoby Brissett (@KC) this week; I'm guessing this is due to Brissett having a favorable opponent, and Jared Goff (@SEA) playing on Thursday night.
Kevin's all-play record is a nice 31-21; his highs have been off the charts, but his lows mean he's "earned" his 2-2 record. Alvin Kamara (vs. TAM) and Mike Evans (@NO) face each other, so Kev will be hoping that one turns into a shootout.
Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.
Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-1, 2nd) vs. Th Kel(ce) is MaHome (Scott, 1-3, 12th)
Matt leads all-time series, 1-0.
From a Blingalytics perspective, Matt's the class of the 2019 Blingaleague. His 3.21 expected wins are among the most ever through four weeks, and his all-play record is 40-12, tops in the league. Austin Ekeler (vs. DEN) should probably still produce with Melvin Gordon III back, but probably not at the heights he has been. And Dalvin Cook (@NYG) has a great matchup to bounce back from a tough game in Chicago.
Scott's all-play record is 24-28, so his 1-3 record is just more of his usual tough luck. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce host a Colts team that just let the Raiders put up 30+ points, so Scott has a chance to pull the upset here.
Pick: Th Kel(ce) is MaHome.
Live Commish (Ed, 2-2, 10th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 2-2, 6th)
Ed leads all-time series, 7-3.
Ed's all-play record (22-30) looked a lot better before his Slapped Heartbeat in week four. If he gets early-season contributors T.Y. Hilton (@KC) and DeSean Jackson (vs. NYJ) back, week four could prove to be an aberration; if not, he'll be facing a steep uphill climb to make the playoffs.
Pat's 29-23 all-play record is the first time he's ever been above .500 by that metric after four weeks! It's certainly miles better than last year's 0-52 mark. Nick Chubb (@SF) is the real deal, and both he and David Montgomery (@OAK, in London) have great matchups this week.
Pick: The Vistas are Back.
Taking a Golladay (Richie, 2-2, 9th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 2-2, 8th)
Rabbit leads all-time series, 5-2.
Richie's all-play record (24-28) paints a pretty accurate picture of his team: it's not bad, but also a notch below the top contenders. His most consistent contributor, Kenny Golladay, is on bye, so this could be a rough week. Luckily, some of his underperformers for the year have good matchups: Sammy Watkins hosts the Colts, Joe Mixon hosts the Cardinals, and Philip Rivers hosts a Denver defense that forgot how to sack the quarterback.
Rabbit's all-play record (20-32) is fourth worst in the league, which happens when you have one of the four Slapped Heartbeat awards. He has two key players in the Thursday night contest, Robert Woods (@SEA) and Chris Carson (vs. LAR), so we'll know a lot about his chances on Friday morning.
Pick: Taking a Golladay.
D's Nuts (Derrek, 2-2, 7th) vs. Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 2-2, 11th)
All-time series tied, 6-6.
It's tempting to say D has been disappointing this year, coming off back-to-back Sanderson Cup victories, but his all-play record (28-24) is actually better than the previous two seasons (27-25 in 2017, 25-27 in 2018), and he's been 2-2 for three straight years now. (His expected wins total, however, is lower than the last two years.) Christian McCaffrey (vs. JAC) is arguably the best overall fantasy asset, and if James Conner (vs. BAL) is really back on track, D could be eyeing a third straight championship.
Babel is 14-38 by all-play record, only better than Dave. His expected wins total (1.02) is historically bad. Is his 2-2 record a testament to the value of Ezekiel Elliott's (vs. GB) consistency? The Dallas RB has scored between 11.50 and 18.30 every week this year.
Pick: D's Nuts.
Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 1-3, 13th) vs. Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 0-4, 14th)
Dave leads all-time series, 8-3.
Mike's all-play record is 18-34. Dave's is 11-41. I just hope all the horses have a fun time.
Pick: Bernie's Bullies.
Closing Thoughts
Week four's 95.74 point average doesn't quite crack the bottom fifty in terms of weekly averages, but it is our worst collective average since week ten, 2017's 93.58.