The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-10-09 - Always Be Trading (with Ed)

We just missed cracking the top ten in terms of our average in week five. Its 109.24 average slots in at 12th all-time.

Week 5 Recap

Derrek def. Babel, 119.53-99.98:

Christian McCaffrey (43.73) continued to do amazing things for Derrek, and Allen Robinson II (24.93) also had a great day. Babel got 26.97 from Josh Jacobs and a whopping 35.00 from the Eagles defense, but fell to 2-3 on the year thanks to Baker Mayfield's -3.00

Schertz def. Pulley, 142.13-127.93:

It was Aaron Jones (44.70) leading the way for Schertz this week, but Russell Wilson (32.10) and Courtland Sutton (18.27) were also key to win this shootout. Amari Cooper put up 36.13 for Pulley, and once again his special teams were great (Justin Tucker scored 16.00, the Patriots defense scored 14.00), but he was undone by Greg Olsen's zero and Wayne Gallman, Jr.'s concussion-suppressed 1.40.

Kevin def. Rob, 86.28-83.38:

Despite getting 34.20 from Matt Ryan, Kevin couldn't crack 90 points. That ultimately didn't matter, as his opponent didn't crack 85. Only Tyler Boyd (22.40) did well for Rob.

Also, you might notice that Kevin has now scored 180.04 points combined in the two weeks following his record-breaking 181.71. This is the fifth time such a thing has happened. In order of how far short they fell:

  • 2013 Babel, week 8: 174.09, followed by 82.04, 66.94 (difference of 25.11);
  • 2015 Matt, week 3: 160.19, followed by 58.24, 87.72 (difference of 14.23);
  • 2011 Kevin, week 5: 154.68, followed by 84.80, 56.28 (difference of 13.60);
  • 2012 Mike R., week 10: 169.56, followed by 51.78, 112.36 (difference of 5.42);
  • 2019 Kevin, week 3: 181.71, followed by 93.76, 86.28 (difference of 1.67).

Mike R. def. Dave, 126.31-86.16:

The Minnesota defense put up 14.00 and Greg Zuerlein scored 11.00 for Dave. The former was his high scorer. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott rallied in the second half to score 26.35 for Mike, and Sony Michel's 19.37 made up for Phillip Dorsett II's zero.

Scott def. Matt, 120.14-102.39:

Lamar Jackson (10.55) had, by far, his worst game of the year, so Matt lost. Patrick Mahomes (19.75) also had his worst game of the year, but Scott won. It was new acquisition DJ Chark, Jr. (33.87) and slightly less recent acquisition Adam Thielen (29.33) who led the way for Mr. Beitzel.

Rabbit def. Richie, 154.79-68.72:

Rabs was victorious in just our fifteenth Gumslapper ever (and second this year). Will Fuller V (46.93) led all scorers, and Chris Godwin (28.67) was finally in Rabbit's lineup. Richie took zero from Sammy Watkins and only 6.25 from Philip Rivers.

Pat def. Ed, 117.60-94.00:

Ho hum, here's Pat, landing amongst the top scorers of the week. Just like we're all used to, right? Mike Thomas (36.27) and Leonard Fournette (20.67) stood out for the Vistas. Deshaun Watson logged a whopping 46.00 for Ed, but kicker Randy Bullock (12.00) was his only other double digit scorer.

Standings

  1. Pulley, 4-1, 638.99
  2. Schertz, 3-2, 646.72
  3. Matt, 3-2, 587.59
  4. Kevin, 3-2, 559.02
  5. Rabbit, 3-2, 544.07
  6. Pat, 3-2, 534.65
  7. Derrek, 3-2, 523.62
  8. Rob, 3-2, 489.02
  9. Scott, 2-3, 504.15
  10. Mike R., 2-3, 471.98
  11. Ed, 2-3, 471.59
  12. Richie, 2-3, 453.61
  13. Babel, 2-3, 432.13
  14. Dave, 0-5, 424.05

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Rabbit's 154.79 is his highest score since 2013. It also makes him the fifth Blangums winner in five weeks this year (more on this later).

Slapped Heartbeat:

Richie's 68.72 is only the 18th worst total he's ever had. It also makes him the fifth Slapped Heartbeat winner in five weeks this year (more on this later).

Weekly MVP:

Will Fuller V (46.93) was the top scorer in a week of standout individual performers.

Dud of the Week:

Babel needed 17 points from Baker Mayfield on Monday night. His team's namesake scored -3.00.

Start of the Week:

Nothing stands out here, so Start of the Week will stay vacant for the second week in a row.

Misplay of the Week:

The Clash of Hatred participants will split this award.

Rob played Jacoby Brissett's 12.45 over Jared Goff's 21.85, and Rashad Penny's 5.93 and Damien Williams's 4.30 over Carlos Hyde's 12.00 and Jarvis Landry's 10.00. Playing any of those benched options would have been enough to win a game he lost by 2.90.

Pulley played shiny new(ish) toys Wayne Gallman, Jr. (1.40) and Melvin Gordon III (4.03) over old reliable Phillip Lindsay (21.80). He lost his game by 14.20.

Pickup of the Week:

Scott traded for DJ Chark, Jr., who put up 33.87. Advice to everyone: if you absolutely need to win your next game, make a trade with Ed. Last year, Mike Thomas and Drew Brees scored just under 70 points combined the week Pulley traded for them, and this year, Chark kept that trend going.

Blessed Cahoots:

Kevin walked away with a win over Rob despite his sub-90-point score (86.28).

Pryor Play of the Week:

Will Fuller V's 46.93 finally made him worth playing.

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

  • 0-5: 0% (0% with week 6 win, 0% with loss)

  • 1-4: 25% (60% with week 6 win, 0% with loss)

  • 2-3: 17% (29% with week 6 win, 6% with loss)

  • 3-2: 60% (86% with week 6 win, 27% with loss)

  • 4-1: 82% (89% with week 6 win, 75% with loss)

  • 5-0: 100% (100% with week 6 win, 100% with loss)

Week 6 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-2, 7th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-1, 1st):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-6.

Our two-time defending champ has a solid team. While James Conner (@LAC) has been disappointing for D, Christian McCaffrey (@TAM) has been outstanding. D's weakness is quarterback. He picked up Gardner Minshew II (vs. NO), who's been exciting in real life, but less so in fantasy. Cam Newton is recovering on D's bench, but how reliable will he be when he comes back? Will D be looking to upgrade prior to the deadline?

Pulley's continued his trend of strong starts, and his team is actually outpacing his championship 2015 squad through five games. It's hard to find a weakness; his team is deep and his only mediocre starter is Greg Olsen (@TAM). Knowing Pulley, though, he'll probably wind up trading at least one of Tom Brady (vs. NYG), Amari Cooper (@NYJ), and Le'Veon Bell (vs. DAL) - so flagging a weakness now is most likely a futile endeavor.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Other Blingamatches

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 3-2, 5th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 3-2, 4th):

All-time series tied, 6-6.

Rabbit's team is rounding into form, as he's put up his two highest scores of the season the past two weeks. He's also had some bad weeks; he's our only player with both a Blangums and a Slapped Heartbeat through five weeks. Looking at his team, he could maybe stand to upgrade at QB, where Kyler Murray (vs. ATL) who has avoided duds, but also rarely been that good, and TE, as Noah Fant (vs. TEN) is mostly a nonentity. One thing to watch is how well he plays matchups; Davante Adams (vs. DET), Chris Godwin (vs. CAR), Will Fuller V (@KC), and Robert Woods (vs. SF) give him plenty of WR options, but also could lead to him leaving points on his bench.

Like Rabs, Kevin has two weeks above the yearly median score. He's struggled the past two weeks, despite eking out a win vs. Rob. It's actually really hard to find a weakness for Kev. Matt Ryan (@ARI) has been iffy in real life, but solid in fantasy, so Kev really relies on his star WRs, Mike Evans (vs. CAR) and Keenan Allen (vs. PIT). When they perform well, he might be unstoppable; but if they have bad weeks, anyone can beat him.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-2, 3rd) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 3-2, 8th):

Matt leads all-time series, 10-5.

Matt's coming off his lowest score of the year, but it's hard to say he's trending downward. He's had some key players off to red-hot starts; Lamar Jackson (vs. CIN), Dalvin Cook (vs. PHI), and Austin Ekeler (vs. PIT) are all among the best at their positions through five weeks. Even so, he's only a game above .500; if they come back down to Earth a little, what will happen to Matt's team?

Rob's team is... weird. On one hand, he's probably lucky to be 3-2, as he has only 2.34 expected wins and a 27-38 all-play record. But on the other hand, he might be unlucky to not be 5-0; his two losses are by a combined 3.45 points. His weakness so far has been his RB stable; Damien Williams (vs. HOU) was supposed to be his rock, but has been hurt, and Rashad Penny (@CLE) and Carlos Hyde (@KC) are not exciting options. If DeAndre Hopkins (@KC) doesn't return to his top-five-WR form, things don't look great for Rob.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 2-3, 10th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-2, 6th):

Mike R. leads all-time series, 7-4.

Mike's team's weakness is that they play for Mike, which means its players are ultimately going to disappoint. Dak Prescott (@NYJ) and Cooper Kupp (vs. SF) have been great so far, but the rest of his team has toyed with being good and fallen on their faces.

Pat could use a TE, I suppose, as Jason Witten (@NYJ) and Eric Ebron (bye) are acceptable at best. If David Njoku returns from injury, that could be big. Otherwise, the Vistas are surprisingly strong. Mike Thomas (@JAC), Leonard Fournette (vs. NO), and Nick Chubb (vs. SEA) form a really strong core... will it be the core that gets #PlayoffPat trending again?

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 2-3, 13th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 3-2, 2nd):

Schertz leads all-time series, 6-1.

In week five, Babel came 0.02 from breaking 100 for the first time on the year. He's managed two wins despite having a 16% chance of being winless based on his scores. He's arguably weak everywhere except RB, where Ezekiel Elliott (@NYJ) and Josh Jacobs (bye) have only one game below 9.90 between them.

Schertz, meanwhile, has weathered Andrew Luck's retirement and Saquon Barkley's injury to become only the sixth team with 3.8 expected wins and only the second with 645 points through five weeks. Like so many this year, TE is his weakest position; Delanie Walker (@DEN) has 1.86 points combined in the past two weeks. But Aaron Jones (vs. DET) and Russell Wilson (@CLE) have been so good that it's hardly mattered.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Live Commish (Ed, 2-3, 11th) vs. Taking a Golladay (Richie, 2-3, 12th):

Richie leads all-time series, 4-3.

Ed's had two good weeks and three bad ones. Appropriately, he's 2-3; his 0.0136 difference between expected wins is the fourth smallest ever through four weeks. His weakness is that his running backs are all good to score five points a game, but only rarely break into double figures. Theoretically, Julio Jones (@ARI); Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. SEA); and Deshaun Watson (@KC) are capable of carrying the team on their own, but that's a tall order.

Richie's team has disappointed at QB (Philip Rivers, vs. PIT) and TE (Jared Cook, @JAC). David Johnson (vs. ATL) has been solid, but unspectacular, and Kenny Golladay (@GB) and Tyrell Williams (bye) have not been good enough to produce wins.

Pick: Live Commish.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 0-5, 14th) vs. The Kel(ce) is MaHome (Scott, 2-3, 9th):

Scott leads all-time series, 1-0.

Sadly, it's harder to find a strength than a weakness on Dave's team. Mohamed Sanu (@ARI) has been a pleasant surprise, though Dave's hasn't been playing him regularly. His 19% chance of being winless is the eighth highest ever through five weeks.

Scott joins Rob and Ed in the group of teams with underwhelming running backs. But his biggest weakness is his team name, sigh. Patrick Mahomes (vs. HOU) and Travis Kelce (vs. HOU) mean that he's a threat every single week, so he should be able to stay in contention.

Pick: The Kel(ce) is MaHome.

Closing Thoughts

So far this year, we've had five different Team Blangums winners and five different Slapped Heartbeat winners. This is the first year that has ever happened.

Other years with five different Team Blangums winners through five weeks: 2008, 2009, and 2015. Other years with five different Slapped Heartbeats: 2011, 2013, and 2017.