The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-10-23 - Dangerously Low Heart Rate

Dave: "I went to Iowa City with Alyssa for a tailgate and the plan was to go to Champaign also, but we never got around to it before she tore her ACL then got pregnant."

Richie: "Remind me to never go to Iowa City with you."

Week 7 Recap

Mike R. def. Rabbit, 80.22-44.23:

We'll lead off with the game that gave us this week's headline. Rabbit put up a historically significant score (more on that later), in part because his highest scorer put up 11.27 (Robert Woods) and his second highest scorer put up 7.70 (Chris Carson). Mike had a fairly bad week, but at least had Dak Prescott score 21.45 and Sony Michel score 21.13.

Babel def. Matt, 138.36-124.28:

Babel had only two players fail to crack double digits, and got huge games from Matthew Stafford (31.20), Ezekiel Elliott (21.90), and the Rams defense (21.00). Matt got 24.25 from Lamar Jackson and 27.13 from Dalvin Cook, but Evan Engram's 0.80 meant he took a loss despite having the third-highest score of the week.

Dave def. Pulley, 123.86-100.12:

Pulley took his second loss in three weeks despite another huge week from the New England defense (30.00). Aaron Rodgers (47.55) led the way for Dave, while Latavius Murray filled in with 28.03. This is only the fourth time a last place team has defeated a first place team. The previous three are Pulley over Rabbit in week 10, 2009; Matt over Dave in week 3, 2014; and Matt over Pulley in week 4, 2017.

Kevin def. Ed, 97.47-87.98:

Our closest game of the week went Kevin's way thanks to a four-touchdown game from Marvin Jones, Jr. (36.40) and a big game from Marquez Valdes-Scantling (23.73), who was filling in for the injured Alvin Kamara. Ed had five double-digit scorers to Kevin's three, but none broke 20 points, which resulted in a disappointing loss.

Richie def. Pat, 95.43-79.02:

Richie got big games from new acquisitions Jared Goff (27.70) and DeAndre Hopkins (20.13) and kept his postseason hopes alive. Pat got nice games from two of his most reliable players, Michael Thomas (17.47) and Leonard Fournette (14.97), but failed to break 80 points.

Derrek def. Rob, 125.12-88.54:

D put up his best score of the season thanks to Darren Waller (28.80), Allen Robinson (17.60), and the Jaguars defense (17.00). Rob got 18.00 from his own defense (San Francisco) and 30.40 from Jacoby Brissett. Fun fact: each of these guys started a D. Williams, KC RB; Darrel scored 0.77 for Derrek, Damien scored 0.57 for Rob.

Schertz def. Scott, 103.75-85.41:

Schertz had seven double-digit scorers (though no 20-pointers) to offset his zero from Delanie Walker and get a victory. Scott was undone by Patrick Mahomes's injury-induced 8.00.

Standings

  1. Pulley, 5-2, 856.18
  2. Schertz, 4-3, 860.21
  3. Matt, 4-3, 782.87
  4. Derrek, 4-3, 765.59
  5. Kevin, 4-3, 728.43
  6. Rabbit, 4-3, 709.43
  7. Babel, 4-3, 686.01
  8. Mike R., 4-3, 661.65
  9. Pat, 3-4, 715.47
  10. Ed, 3-4, 670.64
  11. Rob, 3-4, 642.06
  12. Richie, 3-4, 640.47
  13. Scott, 2-5, 693.41
  14. Dave, 2-5, 654.72

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Babel's 138.36 earned him his first Team Blangums of the year.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Rabbit's 44.23 is the lowest score since week 5, 2015 and the tenth lowest ever.

There was some speculation that this might be the lowest score ever by someone who remembered to set their lineup. Looking through old issues of The Sanderson Gazette, that's not the case. Let's use this as an opportunity to revisit the nine times someone had a worse week than Rabs.

Pat's 37.04 in week 5, 2015 is recapped with a single word: "Pass."

Kevin scored 43.90 in week 8, 2013, and the Gazette notes, "[T]o say Kevin's been all over the place would be an understatement." It adds that Michael Vick scored -1.40 that week and that Jake Locker was included in his upcoming plans.

In week 11, 2012, Richie scored 40.39. He did not earn the Slapped Heartbeat award, as Pat put up the record low 30.13. It sounds like Richie was trying, but the Gazette does state that Pat "apparently did not think to check his lineup prior to Sunday."

Kevin's 43.52 in week 10, 2012 has no mention of injured or bye week players and mentions that his "season has really gone down the drain."

Pat scored 41.41 in week 7, 2012, and the Gazette does not mention any injured or by week players. However, given that Pat clearly did forget to set his lineup just four weeks later, there's a reasonable chance he did the same here.

Pulley scored 42.13 in week 3, 2009; Kevin scored 43.02 in week 15, 2008; and Dave scored 40.93 in week 11, 2008. Sadly, those weeks all predate The Sanderson Gazette. I doubt Pulley forgot to set his lineup, especially just three weeks into the season, so that one seems legitimate. Kevin's score came in the fifth-place game, so he almost certainly did ignore his lineup that week. And 2008 Dave is hard to figure. Week 11 was the fifth time in six weeks that he scored below 70 points; my guess is that he had kind of given up on his season by week 11, but the truth is probably lost to history.

Weekly MVP:

Aaron Rodgers scored 47.55 for Dave and helped him pull a historical upset.

Dud of the Week:

Is "everyone on Rabbit's team" a valid recipient? If I have to pick one, I'll choose Kyler Murray; 7.00 points against a poor Giants defense isn't going to cut it from the QB position.

Start of the Week:

Kevin chose Marquez Valdes-Scantling and his 23.73 points over Jamison Crowder (3.47), Anthony Miller (6.43), and Marquise Goodwin (zero) to replace Alvin Kamara.

Misplay of the Week:

Matt scored 124.28 and lost; had he played Chase Edmonds (33.80) or Austin Ekeler (22.43) over DK Metcalf (5.07), he'd have won.

Pickup of the Week:

Richie traded away Philip Rivers (23.95), Sammy Watkins (zero), David Johnson (0.20), and Jared Cook (zero) for Jared Goff (27.70), DeAndre Hopkins (20.13), Mark Andrews (5.20), and Derrius Guice (zero). A wise move by Mr. Armour.

Blessed Cahoots:

Mike R.'s 80.22 wins games at a 21.7% clip, so it's lucky he faced Rabbit's historically low score this week.

Pryor Play of the Week:

For the third straight week, the Weekly MVP is also our Pryor Play of the Week. Aaron Rodgers's 47.55 showed why Dave invested a third round pick in him.

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

  • 0-7: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

  • 1-6: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

  • 2-5: 0% (0% with week 8 win, 0% with loss)

  • 3-4: 18% (23% with week 8 win, 15% with loss)

  • 4-3: 62% (82% with week 8 win, 40% with loss)

  • 5-2: 94% (100% with week 8 win, 86% with loss)

  • 6-1: 100% (100% with week 8 win, 100% with loss)

  • 7-0: 100% (100% with week 8 win, 100% with loss)

Week 8 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 4-3, 3rd) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 5-2, 1st):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-5.

Matt may have started 5-2 last year, but he's off to his best start by expected wins since his dominant 2013 season. It might be concerning, though, that Matt tends to see his place in the standings fall in the back half of seasons; he hasn't improved upon his week 7 place since his 2012 championship season (though he held onto his first place standing in 2013), and in the past four years, he's seen his ranking get worse by season's end.

Pulley is 5-2 for the third straight year, and in contrast to Matt, he hasn't fallen in the standings after week 7 since 2008. Eleven years ago, Pulley entered the playoffs in fifth place and ran the table to win Blingabowl I, but his recent history has been to disappoint a bit in the playoffs. Despite finishing in third place or better for six straight years, he has only one Blingabowl appearance (and win) to show for it (though he did finish in the money four other times).

This week, Matt must be licking his chops at the matchups that Dalvin Cook (vs. WAS) and Todd Gurley (vs. CIN) have. Jameis Winston (@TEN) is a big wildcard, though. Pulley's Patriots (Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, defense) go up against a mercurial Browns team, and his best WR (Amari Cooper) is on bye.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Other Blingamatches

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 4-3, 8th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-3, 5th):

All-time series tied, 6-6.

Mike's rolled off three straight wins to sit above .500 after seven weeks for the second straight year. Mike's place after seven games is usually a good indicator of where he'll finish; since expansion, he's never moved from a playoff spot to out of one (or vice versa).

Kevin's probably lucky to be above .500 right now; two of his wins came by less than ten points each on weeks where he didn't break 100. His high point total is an artifact of his record-breaking week 3 score; if he had "only" scored 130 points that day, he'd be in 7th place. So maybe his historical trend, similar to Mike's, is due to change this year?

Mike will be without Kerryon Johnson for a while, but the sack of shit himself, Tevin Coleman (vs. CAR), actually looks like a valuable play. Kenny Stills (vs. OAK) could benefit from the Will Fuller V injury, too. If Mason Rudolph (vs. MIA) fills in well for Dak Prescott (bye), he could win his fourth in a row. Kevin has other ideas, as he gets Alvin Kamara (vs. ARI) back, and with a good matchup.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Live Commish (Ed, 3-4, 10th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-3, 4th):

All-time series tied, 7-7.

Ed was one of the most successful franchises for the first six seasons of Blingaleague, but his recent history is sad. He's only been above .500 after seven weeks once in the last six years, and he lost three of his last four to miss the playoffs that year. This year, his record is almost totally opponent-agnostic; when he's scored 100 points, he's won, and week seven was his first game within a ten point margin.

Derrek has now started 4-3 for three straight seasons. Since expansion, he's had a knack for improving as the season goes on; only his lost-cause 2016 saw him fall in the standings after week 7.

These two just made the rare trade with each other during the week they face off. Austin Hooper (vs. SEA) is a surefire upgrade at TE for Ed, and he'll hope the drop from Odell Beckham, Jr. (@NE) to Allen Robinson (vs. LAC) isn't too great.

Pick: D's Nuts.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 4-3, 6th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 3-4, 11th):

Rob leads all-time series, 8-5.

Rabbit is the first team ever to have multiple Team Blangums and multiple Slapped Heartbeat awards in the first seven weeks of the season. In fact, only nine other teams even have one of each in the first seven weeks (2008 Mike R., 2008 Rabbit, 2009 Pat, 2010 Pulley, 2011 Ed, 2013 Matt, 2016 Allen, 2017 Derrek, and 2017 Schertz). In a really weird trend, Rabbit's been in 6th or 9th (nice) after seven weeks in each of the last five years.

Rob is below .500 after seven weeks for the first time since 2012. At least he salvaged a victory in the Clash of Hatred that year.

Rabs has nowhere to go but up, and having Chris Godwin (@TEN) and, possibly, Davante Adams (@KC) back should mean he goes way up. If David Johnson (@NO) is limited again, Rob could be looking at a rough week.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Wreck-It Richie (Richie, 3-4, 12th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 4-3, 2nd):

Schertz leads all-time series, 4-3.

From 2015 to 2018, Richie was 3-4 or 4-3 and somewhere between 7th and 9th place after seven weeks. This year, he's 3-4... but in 12th. In 2015, he vaulted from 9th to a playoff spot; it would take a big leap for him to do the same in 2019.

Unlike Mike R. and Kevin, Schertz's place at the seven-week mark doesn't correlate with his end state. Only once in his seven full seasons has he finished within two places of where he stood at this point. So don't be shocked if he goes 5-1 or 2-4 from here on out.

Schertz has broken 100 every week but one. Richie has only broken 100 once. This is our biggest mismatch of the week.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 2-5, 14th) vs. Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 4-3, 7th):

Babel leads all-time series, 11-2.

Dave had a reputation in the league's early years of being the worst franchise. You wouldn't it if you only looked at his first seven weeks, though; until this year, he's always had at least three teams below him in the standings, even if he did have two 11th place and one 12th place finish prior to expansion.

Babel, on the other hand, is our most notably strong finisher. A record four times he's gone from out of playoff position to making the top six over the final six weeks of the season.

After week five, these two were at the bottom of the standings. Since then, they're a combined 4-0 and have averaged 121 points per game. Stefon Diggs (vs. WAS) has been instrumental to Babel's hot streak, and his matchup and Adam Thielen's injury could result in another huge week. Dave will hope Aaron Rodgers (@KC) can repeat his week seven magic, or at least get somewhat close to it.

Pick: Baker Baker One-Nine.

The Kel(ce) is MaHome (Scott, 2-5, 13th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-4, 9th):

Scott leads all-time series, 1-0.

Scott doesn't have much history, but did you recall he was actually 4-3 at this point last year? If he closes this year on the same 2-4 run, he could head into next year with the best odds at the #1 overall pick.

Pat's three wins this year are three times the total he had through seven weeks the last two years combined. Pat's current 9th place status is actually his highest at this point in the season since 2009. If he finishes strong like he did in 2016 through 2018, he'll... probably just miss the playoffs, like he did in those years.

Scott's season is likely circling the drain with Patrick Mahomes out for the next few weeks. Pat gets Nick Chubb (@NE) back, albeit with a bad matchup, and hopes to capitalize on Scott's misfortune.

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Closing Thoughts

If you look at the expected winning percentages, this year is very top-heavy. Pulley and Schertz are 10th and 11th all-time in expected wins through seven weeks. On the other hand, this year's worst team - Richie - is just 23rd worst by the same measure; every prior year has had a worse team at this point.