The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-10-30 - Golden Bidet

"How could Lauren and I go on couples scootbike rides?" - Mike R.

Week 8 Recap

Derrek def. Ed, 129.62-127.73:

Just like their matchup last year, Derrek trailed Ed by more than 19 points heading into Monday night. But unlike last year - where he blew past Ed's cushion - D needed a late James Conner (21.17) touchdown to pull ahead for good. Ed's team had no duds, and his stars - Deshaun Watson (29.05) and Julio Jones (20.27) - delivered, but all that got him was the second highest losing score of the season.

Schertz def. Richie, 143.23-124.07:

Richie's loss was only slightly less devastating that Ed's, as he put up the fourth highest losing score of the year behind Jared Goff (26.60) and Kenny Golladay (26.40). Aaron Jones's 39.90 resulted in Schertz nearly snagging Team Blangums and, more importantly, moved him into first place.

Mike R. def. Kevin, 144.54-102.05:

"Holy shit Tevin Coleman. You've gone from sack of shit to golden bidet." - Mike R.

Mike got 36.23 from his new golden bidet and 35.33 from old reliable Cooper Kupp; that's as many 30-point scorers as he had all of last year, when he set the single-season points record. Kevin wasted 38.40 from Mike Evans, with week 7 heroes Marvin Jones, Jr. (2.93) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0.53) disappointing the most.

Pat def. Scott, 110.23-104.75:

Pat ended his losing streak thanks to David Montgomery (21.10) and Michael Thomas (20.03). Scott did get 20.65 from Patrick Mahomes II's replacement, Matt Moore, but he fell to 14th place and cut his playoff hopes to "basically nonexistent".

Matt def. Pulley, 112.51-98.92:

Our Game of the Blingaweek was close going into Monday night, but JuJu Smith-Schuster (19.73) had a big game to give Matt a comfortable win. Pulley once again got a huge performance from the Patriots defense (21.00), but veterans Larry Fitzgerald (1.07) and Greg Olsen (1.73) were huge duds.

Dave def. Babel, 110.48-85.34:

"About to win my third straight... Is #playoffdave trending? Am I going to beat the odds? Do I dare ask myself a third rhetorical question in a row? - Dave

To be pedantic, Dave's first question isn't rhetorical; the answer is, "No, #playoffdave isn't trending." But if Aaron Rodgers (27.65) keeps playing like his old self and Latavius Murray (29.53) keeps getting so many touches, that could change. Babel fell to .500, but still is a game ahead of Dave, with only Matthew Stafford (24.80) and Stefon Diggs (17.07) outperforming expectations this week.

Rabbit def. Rob, 70.65-66.01:

Only Duke Johnson, (10.50) and the Chargers defense (9.00) outperformed expectations for Rabs, and his high scorer had only 15.00 (Chris Carson). But Rob's only player to score double digits was the 49ers defense (17.00). Of course, the 49ers' success gives Pulley joy, so Rob can't even be too happy about that performance.

Standings

  1. Schertz, 5-3, 1,003.44
  2. Pulley, 5-3, 955.10
  3. Matt, 5-3, 895.38
  4. Derrek, 5-3, 895.21
  5. Mike R., 5-3, 806.24
  6. Rabbit, 5-3, 780.08
  7. Kevin, 4-4, 830.48
  8. Pat, 4-4, 825.70
  9. Babel, 4-4, 771.62
  10. Ed, 3-5, 798.37
  11. Dave, 3-5, 765.20
  12. Richie, 3-5, 764.54
  13. Rob, 3-5, 708.07
  14. Scott, 2-6, 798.16

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Mike R.'s 144.54 earned him $10.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Rob's 66.01 is just his sixth Slapped Heartbeat ever, but his second in three weeks.

Weekly MVP:

Aaron Jones scored 39.90 for Schertz.

Dud of the Week:

Brandin Cooks didn't score any points before leaving with a concussion for Rob, but it sucks to give this to an injured player. So instead, look at Corey Davis (1.20); if he had scored even 7.00 points, Scott would have won and stayed out of the cellar.

Start of the Week:

Derrek stuck with Gardner Minshew II over other free agent QBs and was rewarded with 25.75 points in a close game.

Misplay of the Week:

Ed played A.J. Brown - who did have a touchdown and scored 7.47 - over Adrian Peterson, who scored 11.20 in his "revenge" game.

Pickup of the Week:

One reason Ed's loss was so close - and so devastating - was how well his trade with his opponent worked out. He acquired Austin Hooper (14.67) and Allen Robinson (8.27) from Derrek in exchange for Odell Beckham, Jr. (6.93). When you figure that he dropped Jordan Akins (1.47) to make room for Hooper, the trade provided a 15.88 point swing vs. D (13.20 at TE, 2.68 at WR).

Blessed Cahoots:

Rabbit joins the list of teams (see Kevin's game recap) that had a two-week stretch that failed to combine to the previous week's score. His total of 114.88 in weeks 7 and 8 is the 12th lowest of all time:

  1. 2008 Dave: 93.16, weeks 10-11;
  2. 2010 Allen: 98.52, weeks 7-8;
  3. 2012 Pat: 107.10, weeks 10-11;
  4. 2012 Pat: 108.60, weeks 7-8;
  5. 2012 Richie: 109.07, weeks 11-12;
  6. 2010 Pat: 109.98, weeks 7-8;
  7. 2009 Pulley: 110.15, weeks 3-4;
  8. 2014 Derrek: 110.75, weeks 2-3;
  9. 2012 Schertz: 112.51, weeks 4-5;
  10. 2012 Kevin: 113.74, weeks 9-10;
  11. 2018 Pat: 113.95, weeks 4-5;
  12. 2019 Rabbit: 114.88, weeks 7-8.

Despite all that, he won, because Rob's team is in a full tailspin.

Pryor Play of the Week:

JuJu Smith-Schuster broke 100 yards for the first time this year and scored 19.73 points for Matt.

Playoff Odds

Since expansion, this is how often teams with each record have made the playoffs:

  • 0-8: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 1-7: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 2-6: 0% (0% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 3-5: 12% (27% with week 9 win, 0% with loss)

  • 4-4: 30% (36% with week 9 win, 25% with loss)

  • 5-3: 83% (100% with week 9 win, 67% with loss)

  • 6-2: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

  • 7-1: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

  • 8-0: 100% (100% with week 9 win, 100% with loss)

Week 9 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

D's Nuts (Derrek, 5-3, 4th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-3, 3rd):

All-time series tied, 7-7.

Our rematch of Blingabowl XI is an easy pick for Game of the Blingaweek, as both participants have strong teams again this season. And each team's top historical comparison took home the Sanderson Cup at the end of the year.

D's top comp is 2009 Matt, so it would be easy to say that his best-case outlook. But that version of Matt was 7-1 at this point, so he might not be the best team to look at moving forward. What is very good for Derrek is that three of his top four most similar teams are all Blingabowl winners. That includes last year's Derrek, who was 5-3 like this year's. The bottom half of his top ten most similar teams includes a handful of playoff also-rans, but also 2016 Dave, who was 5-3 and in 2nd place after week 8, but wound up missing the playoffs.

Like Derrek, three of Matt's top four comps are Blingabowl champs, though none were 5-3 like he is this year. The fourth of his top four, last year's Kevin, was 5-3, and he had to leapfrog a team in week 13 to even make the playoffs (before taking home 3rd place prize money). A rosier outlook for Matt would be 2014 Babel, who was only 4-4 after eight weeks and still took home Sandy.

This week, recent hero James Conner might be out for D, but he has Jaylen Samuels (vs. IND) to sub in. For Matt, Dalvin Cook (@KC) might not have a ceiling against a Chiefs defense that gives up points to running backs like they are trick or treating.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Other Blingamatches

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 5-3, 6th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 5-3, 2nd):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 7-5.

Rabbit's top comp is not encouraging; 2014 Schertz was 5-3 after eight weeks, but finished 5-8 and in 13th place. With Rabs coming off one of the worst two-week stretches ever, he has to at least be a little worried about his team cratering. His most encouraging comp is the "Video Game Bosses" version of Babel, who was only 3-5 at this point, but went on one of the most memorable playoff runs in Blingaleague history.

Pulley's top comp is the championship version of Kevin; that's nice. His top 5-3 comparison is 2016 Rob. Like Pulley, that version of Rob started 5-1, then lost two straight. And, being Rob, lost in the quarterfinals.

This week, Pulley's best player, the Patriots defense (@BAL), faces its first real test. But Le'Veon Bell (@MIA) has the best matchup imaginable. Rabs is hoping to get Davante Adams (@LAC) back, as Will Fuller V is still hurt and Robert Woods is on bye.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 3-5, 10th) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 5-3, 5th):

Ed leads all-time series, 7-5.

Ed's team looks a lot like his #2 comp, 2017 Schertz. Both were 3-5, with one of those losses being tough to stomach. None of Ed's similar teams that were 3-5 made the playoffs, but the 4-4 2009 version of himself did; that team won its next three games and made the playoffs with a game to spare.

Oddly enough, Mike's top comp is this year's Scott, who is 2-6. Weirdly, fewer of his similar teams have made the playoffs than Ed's; you have to all the way to #10 (2008 Allen) to find a team that reached the postseason. That version of Allen lost a heartbreaker in the quarterfinals that year, which sounds about right for Mike.

Ed will need his trade with Derrek to stay fruitful for him to emulate his 2009 self, but with Austin Hooper on bye this week, that's unlikely. Mike gets Dak Prescott (@NYG) back, which should be enough to for him to move to 6-3.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 3-5, 11th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 4-4, 8th):

Dave leads all-time series, 6-4.

Dave's won three in a row, and if he stays hot, he could follow the path his #2 comp, 2016 Babel, took to reach the playoffs. That version of Mark looked just as bad as Dave did early in the season, with three sub-80 weeks in his first six, but rallied to finish 7-6. A more pessimistic outcome is that of 2017 Rabbit, who had his own three game winning streak midseason, but finished 6-7 and in 9th place.

Pat's ten most similar teams range from 2-6 to 7-1. The two 4-4 teams on his list are 2015 Babel, who won only one more game and missed the playoffs; and 2008 Ed, who won only two more, but snuck into the playoffs and rallied to 3rd place.

Predicting this one is tough. Nick Chubb (@DEN) and Leonard Fournette (vs. HOU) are a good enough core to give Pat a chance in any game, but the rest of his team - particularly Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson, both vs. CHI - have much more variability. Dave will look to get another big game from Aaron Rodgers (@LAC), and the rest of his team is just like Pat's.

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Wreck-It Richie (Richie, 3-5, 12th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-4, 7th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 5-2.

Richie's historically similar teams are mostly forgettable also-rans, like 2014 Pat and 2014 Derrek. At #10, you do find 2016 Babel - the patron saint of 3-5 teams that are holding onto playoff hopes.

Kevin's team surprising mediocrity is hiding behind that ridiculous week 3. His top two comps, 2012 Pulley and 2018 Babel, were both 3-5 and wound up in 12th place by season's end. His #3, 2015 Schertz, did manage to get a bye, but also had a one-game advantage by this point in the season.

This is a good week to face Richie, with Jared Goff and Joe Mixon on their byes. On the other hand, Kev will again be without Matt Ryan and Alvin Kamara, who get bye weeks to hopefully get healthy.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Rob for Today (Rob, 3-5, 13th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-3, 1st):

Schertz leads all-time series, 6-3.

Rob's team has never been this bad. The worst he's been by expected wins after eight weeks is 9th, in 2010 and 2013. This year, he's 14th. The terms "Pat" and "2017 Mike R." appear too frequently on his top comps list for him to have much optimism for this year. I assume he'll be pushing to acquire keepers quite soon.

Meanwhile, Schertz's top ten historically similar teams include four of the best teams in league history: 2012 Matt, 2016 Kevin, 2013 Matt, and 2015 Pulley. None of them had lost three games by this point, though. A sobering comparison is 2010 Dave, who lost four of his last five games and missed the playoffs completely.

I don't think I need to cite matchups to justify this pick.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 4-4, 9th) vs. Miami Dolphins (Scott, 2-6, 14th):

Scott leads all-time series, 1-0.

Babel's top comp is the team he just lost to (2019 Dave). His top 4-4 comp is 2016 Richie, who finished 5-8 and in 12th. Also present is the 2012 version of himself, who was in worse shape after eight weeks, but made the Blingabowl.

None of Scott's top comps had fewer than three wins, really underscoring just how unlucky he's been to this point in his Blingaleague career. The 2014 version of Mike R. is probably his best case scenario; he won three of his last five and finished in 7th place.

Patrick Mahomes II is still out, but Adam Thielen (@KC) should be back for Scott. That could really hurt Babel, as Stefon Diggs (@KC) has feasted as the undisputed top option for the Vikings.

Pick: Miami Dolphins.

Closing Thoughts

Week 8 was 12th all-time in average score and 15th in closest margin.