The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-11-13 - All Alone

"When Ed looked up the numbers to type that tweet and counted out the 27 decimal places, I'm sure he was positively aroused. He lives for a blingalytics anomaly just as incredible as it is inconsequential." - Dave

Week 10 Recap

Ed def. Rabbit, 129.73-120.04:

Rabbit took an incredibly tough loss - the third highest score of the week and the sixth highest losing score of the year - despite a huge game from Kyler Murray (29.00). Chris Carson (16.50) fell ten points short of his Monday night goal, though, so Ed took home the victory. Golden Tate (22.67), Melvin Gordon (20.13), and special teams (Matt Gay, 14.00; Jets defense, 15.00) led the way for the commish.

Pat def. Derrek, 92.76-74.83:

Our second upset of the week required Pat getting 20.27 from Mike Thomas, 18.95 from Mitch Trubisky, and 16.67 from Marquise Brown. Derrek got his regular 20-point game from Christian McCaffrey (21.20), but Emmanuel Sanders (3.20), Darren Waller (5.33), and Jaylen Samuels (4.37) were all big underperformers.

Scott def. Pulley, 104.06-91.90:

An even bigger upset came on the back of Patrick Mahomes (33.30) and the Raven defense (24.00), as Scott grabbed his third win of the year. Pulley needed a huge game from Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night, but got only 10.00 points. It also didn't help that his fill-in defense, the Giants, put up -2.00.

Babel def. Mike R., 102.15-77.75:

By record, this one was our fourth upset, but Babel's team actually underperformed projections. The Rams defense (21.00) did come through, though, and Mike's team shat the bed (with the exception of Dak Prescott's 29.35). Cooper Kupp's surprise zero was indicative of Mike's day.

Schertz def. Kevin, 126.27-98.04:

It looked like Schertz would cruise to Blangums, but Russell Wilson (16.40) and Tyler Lockett (3.77) both disappointed on Monday night. Derrick Henry (31.20) and Aaron Jones (27.30) sure didn't, though, so Schertz was able to move all alone into first place. Every single one of Kevin's players scored between 8.00 (Dan Bailey, Bears defense) and 16.80 (Jamison Crowder).

Matt def. Dave, 116.63-97.98:

Tyreek Hill's 27.23 and surprising breakouts from O.J. Howard (12.27), Deebo Samuel (14.93), and Mecole Hardman (14.40) meant that Dave had a chance here. But Matt's MVPs - Lamar Jackson (35.65) and Dalvin Cook (27.17) - shut the door on any upset thoughts by Mr. Fultz.

Richie def. Rob, 101.08-84.46:

Rob won the battle of traded QBs, with Philip Rivers (9.85) outscoring Jared Goff (4.15). But he lost the war of the the entire trade, as Mark Andrews (19.07) and Michael Gallup (16.13, acquired for DeAndre Hopkins) were far better than David Johnson (-0.73).

Standings

  1. Schertz, 7-3, 1,293.75
  2. Pulley, 6-4, 1,154.12
  3. Matt, 6-4, 1,122.89
  4. Derrek, 6-4, 1,089.35
  5. Mike R., 6-4, 990.66
  6. Babel, 6-4, 977.11
  7. Kevin, 5-5, 1,042.02
  8. Pat, 5-5, 994.22
  9. Rabbit, 5-5, 993.56
  10. Ed, 4-6, 1,007.91
  11. Dave, 4-6, 981.66
  12. Richie, 4-6, 951.32
  13. Scott, 3-7, 951.84
  14. Rob, 3-7, 873.95

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Ed took home his first $10 (£7.78) prize in over two years with 129.73 points.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Derrek's 74.83 took home a surprising Slapped Heartbeat, snapping a streak of 34 weeks without having the low score.

Here are all the times in history that a team has gone 30 or more weeks without getting their heartbeat slapped. It's incredible that somehow Dave went over six years without getting this award.

Weekly MVP:

Lamar Jackson scored 35.65 for Matt in a Blingamatch that was closer than expected.

Dud of the Week:

David Johnson's -0.73 was pitiful for Rob.

Start of the Week:

Our only game within ten points was Ed over Rabbit, and Ed actually left some points on the bench. No one gets this award.

Misplay of the Week:

It didn't matter in terms of game outcome or weekly awards, but a special mention goes to Babel for leaving Christian Kirk's 36.40 on his bench.

Pickup of the Week:

Ed traded Julio Jones (10.53) for Melvin Gordon III (20.13). He would have won by 0.09 without that move, but it allowed him to be mostly stress-free heading into Monday night.

Pryor Play of the Week:

This is kind of a weak one, but Richie's been playing a disappointing RB all year, and he came through with 16.33 this week. You can probably guess who this is. Joe Mixon.

Playoff Scenarios

Schertz clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Kevin loss AND a Pat loss AND a Rabbit loss.

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Schertz needs a lot to mathematically clinch, but he's effectively locked up a playoff berth now. It's already rare enough for a seven-win team to miss the playoffs, and he's in great shape if he does wind up needing the points tiebreaker. Last year was our highest scoring year of all time, and the sixth place team was 7-6 with 1,452.59 points. To eclipse that mark, Schertz would need to average just 53 points per week from here on out. He's going to make the playoffs, folks.

Week 11 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 6-4, 6th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin 5-5, 7th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 6-5.

Babel still plays: Richie, Ed.

Kevin still plays: Pulley, Dave.

"I vote Babel Most Likely To Take A Wrong Turn Into The Blingabowl." - Mike R.

Babel's season is arguably one big #BlessedCahoots. He's 12th by expected wins (4.31), with a 57% chance of having four or fewer wins. But he's 6-4 and in sixth place, with a manageable schedule remaining. And it's not like he's had an easy slate of opponents; his strength of schedule (+0.06%) is basically neutral. His luck has manifested itself in some close wins; he has three victories by less than seven points, and in two of those, he scored less than 85 himself. Regardless of how he got here, it means that he's in control of his own playoff destiny with three games to play.

That means Kevin needs to beat him this week. Already a game behind at 5-5, Kevin's had a weird season himself. He broke the single-game scoring record, but that's just one of three games he's had above the seasonal median of 102.10 (he does have a fourth just below that, at 102.05). Kev's had at least 7.57 expected wins each of last three years, but he'll need three Blangums-level performances to get close to that this year.

This week, Drew Brees will visit Tampa Bay for Babel, which is a really nice matchup. Josh Jacobs (vs. CIN), Devin Singletary (@MIA), and Ezekiel Elliott (@DET) have nice matchups of their own, as well. Kevin will have Alvin Kamara (@TAM), who he hopes returns to pre-2019 levels of production.

Pick: Baker Baker One-Nine.

Other Blingamatches

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 6-4, 3rd) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-5, 8th):

Matt leads all-time series, 7-4.

Matt still plays: Ed, Mike R.

Pat still plays: Rabbit, Schertz.

Lamar Jackson (vs. HOU) and Dalvin Cook (vs. DEN) have been amazing for Matt this year, and while they don't have incredible matchups this week, they don't have bad ones, either. Todd Gurley II (vs. CHI) has been pretty steady, if unspectacular, and gets a tough matchup this week. New additions Kenny Golladay (vs. DET) and Mark Andrews (vs. HOU) could be key for Matt this week, as Jackson and Cook can't do everything alone.

Pat will hope Jackson's touchdowns go to Marquise Brown (vs. HOU), who's healthy and productive once again. Mike Thomas (@TAM) has a good matchup, but Nick Chubb (vs. PIT) and Carson Wentz (vs. NE) have tough ones. It looks like this could be the end for #PlayoffPat.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 4-6, 11th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-4, 4th):

Derrek leads all-time series, 8-3.

Dave still plays: Schertz, Kevin.

Derrek still plays: Mike R., Rabbit.

#PlayoffDayv, for all intents and purposes, is done trending. It's not only a matter of Dave making up two games on one of the five 6-4 teams, but also passing four other teams while doing so. That means he's looking to play spoiler, but it'll be hard to spoil D with Aaron Rodgers on his bye. Tyreek Hill (@LAC) will need to have a massive game for Dave to emerge victorious in week eleven.

D should be able to bounce back from his Slapped Heartbeat in week ten, as Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Allen have a good matchup vs. ATL. Emmanuel Sanders (vs. ARI) appears to be healthy enough to play, but Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. PIT) could be in for another rough week against a tough defense.

Pick: D's Nuts.

Live Commish (Ed, 4-6, 10th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 7-3, 1st):

Schertz leads all-time series, 6-1.

Ed still plays: Matt, Babel.

Schertz still plays: Dave, Pat.

Ed just won Team Blangums, so it's not like his team is a pushover. And Deshaun Watson (@BAL) is back this week. Melvin Gordon III (vs. KC) has a strong matchup of his own, and Ronald Jones II's (vs. NO) recent emergence as the #1 in Tampa Bay makes Ed's sub-.500 team feisty.

But he's up against a juggernaut. Schertz has - by far - the most points through ten weeks ever. And as I detailed earlier, he's basically locked up a playoff berth already. That's very fortunate this week, as Schertz has the worst bye week I think I've ever seen. His five best players - Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones - are all resting this week. He should have enough to field a starting lineup, but it looks likely to include Nick Foles (@IND), J.D. McKissic (vs. DAL), and A.J. Green (@OAK, in his first game back from injury).

Pick: Live Commish.

Miami Dolphins (Scott, 3-7, 13th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 5-5, 9th):

Scott leads all-time series, 1-0.

Scott still plays: Rob, Richie.

Rabbit still plays: Pat, Derrek.

Scott pulled off a big upset last week without his two best WRs, Adam Thielen (vs. DEN) and DJ Chark, Jr. (@IND). And stacking Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (both @LAC) means he's alwys dangerous. A relatively easy remaining schedule means he could finish 6-7 for the second straight year.

Rabbit has some bye week issues of his own, with Davante Adams and Chris Carson unavailable this week. Kyler Muray (@SF) faces a team that just held Russell Wilson in check, and Chris Godwin (vs. NO) is up against a formidable foe of his own, albeit one that means he'll have a favorable game script.

Pick: Miami Dolphins.

Wreck-It Richie (Richie, 4-6, 12th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-4, 2nd):

Pulley leads all-time series, 6-2.

Richie still plays: Babel, Scott.

Pulley still plays: Kevin, Rob.

Richie just made a move for keepers that leaves him a bit shorthanded this week. Austin Ekeler (vs. KC) has a good matchup, but DK Metcalf and Evan Engram are both on bye. Jared Goff (vs. CHI) has a tough matchup and is generally unreliable. Things don't look great for Richie this week.

Pulley gets all his Patriots back, and Tom Brady and Julian Edelman (both @PHI) could have big weeks. Amari Cooper (@DET) has had an overall great year, and Le'Veon Bell (@WAS) faces one of the worst teams in the league. This one could be a laugher, folks.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-4, 5th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 3-7, 14th):

Rob leads all-time series, 9-3.

Mike R. still plays: Derrek, Matt.

Rob still plays: Scott, Pulley.

Mike's in a weird position. He's 6-4 and, therefore, has legitimate playoff hopes. But he's behind all three 5-5 teams in points, and has a brutal remaining schedule. He really should be rooting for fellow 6-4ers Matt and D, as well as Scott, to hand the 5-5 cohort another loss each. As for his own team, Dak Prescott (@DET) has been great, DeAndre Hopkins (@BAL) has potential to be the #1 overall WR, and Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI) can't go lower than last week.

Rob's team, sigh. He hasn't scored 90 points in any of the last six weeks. His best players are probably Jarvis Landry (vs. PIT) and... Carlos Hyde (@BAL)?

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Closing Thoughts

If you have one takeaway from this issue of The Sanderson Gazette, it should be that the trade deadline is November 16.

Addendum, 2020-10-21

In case the tweet linked in the opening section is no longer available at some point, here is the content:

Week 10 #blingalyticsratings:

  1. Schertz 746
  2. Matt 648
  3. Pulley 630
  4. Derrek 598
  5. Ed 474
  6. Kevin 469
  7. Rabbit 468
  8. Pat 464
  9. Dave 454 (t-9)
  10. Mike R. 454 (t-9)
  11. Scott 444
  12. Babel 431
  13. Richie 405
  14. Rob 315

That "t-9" is exact; Dave and Mike have the same number of expected wins to twenty-seven decimal places!