The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-11-20 - The Monster Awakens

"The year? 2027. The Gazette week 10 preview reads, 'This is a make or break week for the Bullies, who will need to rely on a big game from Tevin Coleman to keep their playoff chances...'" - Mike R.

Week 11 Recap

Matt def. Pat, 145.10-92.13:

Matt put up his highest score since the opening week of last year and vaulted into second place behind Lamar Jackson (35.20) and John Brown (30.27). That was despite Dalvin Cook's (12.73) second worst game of the season. Pat got 21.20 from Mike Thomas, but no one else cracked the 20-point mark for him.

Schertz def. Ed, 70.63-50.42:

Schertz's bye-week fill-ins turned out to be acceptable; while none of Nick Foles (19.80), Terry McLaurin (9.20), Ted Ginn, Jr. (7.87), and Taylor Gabriel (7.60) wowed, none were duds. Instead, Ed fulfilled that quota on his own. Deshaun Watson (2.65), Ronald Jones II (1.43), and Allen Robinson II (2.00) were all horrendous, and he lost badly.

Pulley def. Richie, 88.79-86.18:

Pulley snuck away with a win, as Austin Ekeler's 16.80 fell just short for Richie on Monday night. Le'Veon Bell (16.30) was high scorer for the Pullman. This game is easily represented by its quarterbacks: Tom Brady (10.20) was disappointing for Pulley, but Jared Goff (6.95) was even more disappointing for Rich.

Kevin def. Babel, 127.07-109.93:

Kevin leapfrogged Babel into sixth place with Josh Allen (36.40) leading the way. Marlon Mack added 16.90 and Jamison Crowder contributed 16.13. Babel got 23.40 from Drew Brees and 22.13 from Stefon Diggs, but fell short and out of playoff position.

Mike R. def. Rob, 116.98-86.18:

Mike solidified his own playoff position, as Dak Prescott (35.50) and Calvin Ridley (25.07) offset horrible special teams (Chris Boswell, zero; Carolina defense, -1.00). Rob's special teams, on the other hand, were his highlight; the Saints defense scored 17.00 and Michael Badgley put up 9.00.

Dave def. Derrek, 92.78-88.11:

Mike Williams (10.13) didn't do enough on Monday night, and now our two-time defending champ might have to worry about missing the playoffs. Christian McCaffrey (23.13) did continue his dominant season for Derrek, somehow scoring over 20 points in a game in which his team scored 3. Dave's upset was led by Sam Darnold (27.35) and new addition Courtland Sutton (17.97).

Scott def. Rabbit, 106.24-83.67:

DJ Chark, Jr. (25.87) was Scott's high scorer, and the Dolphins are now on a winning streak! Rabs left the injured Will Fuller V in his lineup and got an additional zero from O.J. Howard, but that didn't matter in terms of the outcome of this one.

Standings

  1. Schertz, 8-3, 1,364.38
  2. Matt, 7-4, 1,267.99
  3. Pulley, 7-4, 1,242.91
  4. Mike R., 7-4, 1,107.64
  5. Derrek, 6-5, 1,177.46
  6. Kevin, 6-5, 1,169.09
  7. Babel, 6-5, 1,087.04
  8. Pat, 5-6, 1,086.35
  9. Rabbit, 5-6, 1,077.23
  10. Dave, 5-6, 1,074.44
  11. Ed, 4-7, 1,058.33
  12. Scott, 4-7, 1,058.08
  13. Richie, 4-7, 1,037.50
  14. Rob, 3-8, 960.13 (e)

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Matt's 145.10 won this handily.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Ed's holdout as our only active franchise to never score below 60 points ended with his 50.42 this week. At least he didn't drop below 50.

What makes this even more notable is that it's only the seventh time a team has won Team Blangums one week and Slapped Heartbeat the next. The previous six:

  • Mike R., weeks 3-4, 2008;
  • Derrek, weeks 8-9, 2008;
  • Pulley, weeks 12-13, 2010;
  • Kevin, weeks 10-11, 2014;
  • Rabbit, weeks 10-11, 2015;
  • Rabbit, weeks 6-7, 2019.

Weekly MVP:

John Brown's unexpected 30.27 was critical for Matt's $10 prize.

Dud of the Week:

Deshaun Watson's 2.65 was a major contributor to Ed's awful week.

Start of the Week:

Kevin's play of Josh Allen (36.40) over Matt Ryan (18.05) - a net of 18.35 in a 17.14-point victory - is one of the most impressive instances of this award I can remember handing out.

Misplay of the Week:

Derrek played a different QB named Allen - Kyle - and got 6.45 points. Had he played Derek Carr's 21.20, he'd have won and all but locked up a playoff berth.

Pickup of the Week:

Dave added Sam Darnold on Saturday and got 27.35 points.

Blessed Cahoots:

Schertz had to expect a bad score, given that all his key players were on bye this week. And his team did put up the second lowest score of the week. But instead of a loss, he emerged with a Blessed Heartbeat, because his opponent, Ed, put up his lowest score ever.

Playoff Scenarios

Schertz clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Derrek loss OR a Kevin loss OR a Babel loss.

Schertz clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Pulley loss.

Matt clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Derrek loss OR a Kevin loss OR a Babel loss).

Pulley clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Derrek loss OR a Kevin loss OR a Babel loss).

Mike R. clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

(Rob has been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

I'm comfortable calling Schertz a playoff team, despite it being mathematically possible for him to miss. In order for that to happen, he'd have to lose out, Derrek would have to win out and make up 187 points, Kevin would have to win out and make up 196 points, and Babel would have to win out and make up 278 points. (Schertz only needs a Pulley loss (in addition to his own win) to clinch a bye because Matt and Mike R. play each other next week.)

Matt and Pulley in really good shape. While they trail Schertz by 97 and 122 points, respectively, that puts them far enough ahead of the 6-5 and 5-6 trios that a single win - or a single loss by any of Derrek, Kevin, or Babel - will essentially lock up a playoff spot.

Mike R. is in a dicier position, even though his above clinching scenario is simpler. Because he's currently below Derrek and Kevin in points (and only a little ahead of Babel), his magic number is two. He will clinch if he gets a win of his own plus a loss by at least one of them from here on out. This week, he can get both by beating D.

Week 12 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 7-4, 4th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-5, 5th):

Mike R. leads all-time series, 7-6.

Mike R. still plays: Matt.

Derrek still plays: Rabbit.

If Mike wins out, he'll make the playoffs with a good shot at a bye. He'd for sure finish ahead of Matt, so he'd only need one loss by Pulley (or two by Schertz) to get a pass to the semifinals in that case. If he loses out, he'd probably miss the playoffs. There are six teams with 5 or 6 losses currently; because Mike is less than 40 points ahead of the lowest scorer among that group, it's likely that at least three of those six teams finish with 7 or more wins and more points than a Mike that lost his last two games.

What's most likely? Sadly for Mike, 0-2. He has the toughest schedule remaining, with D and Matt having an average .629 expected winning percentage between them.

If Derrek wins out, he'd be 8-5, so he'd for sure make the playoffs. But he'd need both Matt and Pulley to lose out to get a bye, so he should expect to play in week fourteen. If he loses out, he'd have a high risk of missing out entirely, as we're likely to see six teams with 7 or more wins. That said, D's point total is solid, so he'd likely win any points tiebreakers for a 6-win team to get in.

What's most likely? D's schedule isn't a cakewalk, as both Mike and Rabs are in the playoff mix, but it's not especially hard. An 0-2 finish would be pretty shocking for our reigning champ.

This week, Mike should have George Kittle (vs. GB) back, which is good for him. But Dak Prescott (@NE) has a bad matchup. Derrek's rock, Christian McCaffrey (@NO), has a bad matchup of his own. This might come down to which disappointing WR has a better week: Calvin Ridley (vs. TAM) for Mike or Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. MIA) for Derrek.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Other Blingamatches

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-4, 3rd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-5, 6th):

Pulley leads all-time series, 11-4.

Pulley still plays: Rob.

Kevin still plays: Dave.

If Pulley wins out, he'll have a better than 50/50 chance for a bye; all he'd need is a Matt loss, or two Schertz losses. If he loses out, it would take quite a turn of events for him to miss the playoffs, as he's got a fairly comfortable points cushion against all the contenders currently below him. What's most likely? There's no excuse to lose to Rob's collection of players in week thirteen, so Pulley's looking at his seventh straight season with 8 or more wins and a playoff berth.

If Kevin wins out, he'll make the playoffs. While that's not a mathematical certainty, Babel would have to win out and make up 83 points on Kev (along with some other combinations of events) for it to not happen. If Kevin loses out, it's unlikely he'll make the playoffs, as at least two of Derrek, Babel, Pat, Rabbit, and Dave would likely get to 7 wins. What's most likely? Probably 1-1. Despite Dave's hot streak, Kevin's team is just better, and he has a good shot at getting a crucial win this week against Pulley's downward-trending MondoSquad.

Pulley's Patriots (Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, defense) face a tough test against Dallas this week, but Julio Jones (vs. TAM) could blow up. Kevin will be without key players Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen due to their bye week, which could really hurt against a quality opponent like Pulley.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 5-6, 9th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-6, 8th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 10-3.

Rabbit still plays: Derrek.

Pat still plays: Schertz.

If Rabbit wins out, he'll still need help to make the playoffs. He'll for sure still be behind Schertz, Matt, and Pulley. Mike R. is currently more than 20 points ahead of Rabs, but that can be made up in the event Mike goes 0-2. That still means Rabs would have to pass at least one of Derrek, Kevin, and Babel - and he'll for sure have beaten D in this scenario. If Rabbit loses out, he can't make the playoffs. What's most likely? Rabs faces off against two teams ahead of him in the standings; it's unlikely he'll get the two wins he most likely needs.

If Pat wins out, he'll still need help to make the playoffs. Look one paragraph up to get more details. If he loses out, he's done. What's most likely? Like Rabs, he's a longshot to go 2-0. #PlayoffPat will almost certainly have to wait another year.

It looks like Carlos Hyde (vs. IND) will be the only recent acquisition that Pat actually plays this week, which makes you wonder why he traded Leonard Fournette away. On the other side, Rabs will be without Kyler Murray (bye) and his backup, Kirk Cousins (bye). One of these teams will emerge victorious, but it could be ugly.

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 6-5, 7th) vs. Son of a Mitch (Richie, 4-7, 13th):

Babel leads all-time series, 5-2.

Babel still plays: Ed.

Richie still plays: Scott.

If Babel wins out, he'll need a loss by Derrek or Kevin - or two by Mike R. - to make the playoffs. You have to think that's likely, but there's enough uncertainty there for Mark to worry. If he loses out, he'll have to point to the early season, where his record far outpaced his point total, to find the reason. He's not likely to win any tiebreakers with Derrek or Kevin, even if they also go 0-2. What's most likely? Babel's schedule is easy; I anticipate him landing among the weakest 8-5 teams in Blingaleague history.

If Richie wins out, nothing happens. If Richie loses out, nothing happens. What's most likely? Nothing.

Ezekiel Elliott (@NE) bounced back for Babel last week, but faces a top defense now. Other than that, Babel has lots going on in the CAR@NO (D.J. Moore and Drew Brees) and OAK@NYJ (Josh Jacobs and Robby Anderson) games. Richie's mostly playing out the string, and with Austin Ekeler on bye, he doesn't have great odds to pull the upset this week.

Pick: Baker Baker One-Nine.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 5-6, 10th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 8-3, 1st):

Dave leads all-time series 4-3.

Dave still plays: Kevin.

Schertz still plays: Pat.

If Dave wins out, there's a small chance he will make the playoffs. He basically needs what Rabbit and Pat need (see above), as all three are 5-6 and within ten points of each other. If he loses out, his wild season will fade into memory. What's most likely? He plays a back-to-full-strength Schertz this week. #PlayoffDayv will stop trending for good.

If Schertz wins out, he'll become the eighth franchise to win 10 or more games in a season. If he loses out, he still is extremely likely to make the playoffs; he'd have to lose out in epic fashion - we're talking record-low scores - to risk missing out. What's most likely? He eked out a win on his bye week from Hell; I'd put money on him winning out.

Schertz gets Russell Wilson (@PHI), Aaron Jones (@SF), Derrick Henry (@JAC), and Saquon Barkley (@CHI) back this week for sure, and probably Tyler Lockett (@PHI) as well. Dave's tight end (Dallas Goedert, vs. SEA) is not even the best Eagles tight end (Zach Ertz, vs. SEA) in this matchup.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Live Commish (Ed, 4-7, 11th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-4, 2nd):

All-time series tied, 7-7.

Ed still plays: Babel.

Matt still plays: Mike R.

If Ed wins out, technically he has a shot at the playoffs. If he loses out, he'll have a better shot at the #1 overall pick. What's most likely? Ed's team can't put together consecutive good weeks - or bad weeks, really. Finishing 1-1 seems inevitable.

If Matt wins out, he'll have the same shot at a bye that Pulley does. If he loses out, no bye - but missing the playoffs still seems unlikely. What's most likely? Losing out sounds shocking on its face. And given Ed's proclivity to follow up bad with good and a solid opponent waiting in rivalry week (Mike R.), 1-1 is probably what we should expect.

The two best running backs in this one - Melvin Gordon III for Ed and Dalvin Cook for Matt - are on bye. Matt's team is better on paper, but can I pick against Ed's on/off pattern?

Pick: Live Commish.

Miami Dolphins (Scott, 4-7, 12th) vs. Rob for Tomorrow (Rob, 3-8, 14th):

Rob leads all-time series, 1-0.

Scott still plays: Richie.

Rob still plays: Pulley.

If Scott wins out, he can still technically make the playoffs. If he loses out, he might fall behind Rob into last place. What's most likely? I'm not really sure, except that it involves missing the playoffs. Scott actually has, by far, the easiest schedule left, as Rob and Richie have and average expected winning percentage of .357. Finishing 6-7 again would be a good bet, but there are some bye week issues that could prevent that.

If Rob wins out, he'll be mad. If Rob loses out, he'll be a different kind of mad. What's most likely? Rob will be mad, but a middle version.

The Chiefs are on bye this week, so Scott's team, which relies on Patrick Mahomes II and Travis Kelce, is crushed.

Pick: Rob for Tomorrow.

Closing Thoughts

Dave proposed a new rule change in the Blingachat a few weeks ago: reducing the number of bench spots by one. As a bit of a preview, I will be including that proposal on the year-end survey. And if you have any suggestions of your own, please let me know.

And since I gave the list of Team Blangums to Slapped Heartbeat winners earlier, here's the other end - teams that went from Slapped Heartbeat to Team Blangums in consecutive weeks:

  • Mike R., weeks 2-3, 2008;
  • Rabbit, weeks 6-7, 2008;
  • Dave, weeks 11-12, 2008;
  • Katie, weeks 12-13, 2008;
  • Matt, weeks 1-2, 2013;
  • Pulley, weeks 7-8, 2016.

One, this means that Mike R., in weeks 2-4 of 2008, is our only franchise that had a three week up-and-down stretch. Two, what the heck was going on in our inaugural season?