The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-11-27 - Less Praline
"Don't underestimate me, buddy. Everyone else has. And only three times I proved them wrong." - Richie
Week 12 Recap
Rabbit def. Pat, 147.13-89.04:
Rabs kept his playoff hopes alive with a huge week. It was Chris Godwin (36.53) and Ryan Tannehill (34.45) leading the way, but really it was a total team effort, as Rabbit had no duds. Pat got 24.33 from Nick Chubb, but Carson Wentz (10.00), Jason Witten (0.67), and David Montgomery (3.40) were all big disappointments as he officially fell from playoff contention.
Mike R. def. Derrek, 113.59-88.69:
Bernie convincingly returned to the playoffs behind DeAndre Hopkins's 24.53, George Kittle's 23.20, and Calvin Ridley's 18.83. Derrek got a surprisingly 19.07 from James Washington and the usual 27.60 from Christian McCaffrey, but was doomed by bad games from Derek Carr (4.95), Jaylen Samuels (4.07), and the Jacksonville defense (-2.00).
Pulley def. Kevin, 83.53-63.28:
Pulley also clinched a playoff berth, though his victory wasn't especially convincing. Jimmy Garoppolo (19.25) was his only real standout, but even that score - like every one of Pulley's players - was below his Yahoo projection. Amari Cooper's zero was especially notable for Pulley. But Kevin was even worse; Jamison Crowder (2.40), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0.93), and Cameron Brate (zero) were all huge disappointments, and Kevin will now need help to make the playoffs.
Ed def. Matt, 126.04-96.18:
Ed's even/odd pattern held, and he scored a major upset this week. A.J. Brown (24.00), Allen Robinson II (23.47), and Jonathan Williams (18.67) were all keys to his big week, while only Noah Fant (1.87) really underperformed significantly. Meanwhile, Matt got another MVP level performance from Lamar Jackson (36.95), but Todd Gurley II (1.80) was a dud and the rest of his lineup didn't go above and beyond to get him the win.
Babel def. Richie, 115.96-53.94:
D.J. Moore (29.60) blew up for Babel, who now controls his own playoff destiny. Drew Brees (24.55) and Robby Anderson (17.47) also delivered for Mark. As for Richie... if anything, he was overestimated this week. His high scorer was the Bills defense, with 13.00.
Schertz def. Dave, 98.16-42.44:
Derrick Henry (28.03) had another big game for Schertz, and Zach Ertz added 18.13, giving him an overall respectable score despite Russell Wilson (8.50) and Tyler Lockett (5.07) underperforming dramatically. However, none of that mattered, as Dave had a historically awful week (more on that later). James White scored -0.30 (without even fumbling).
Rob def. Scott, 113.15-72.62:
Rob put up his highest score since week one, with Jarvis Landry (31.73) and Leonard Fournette (29.97) leading the way. Scott managed to get 16.13 from Cole Beasley, but had no other bright spots.
Standings
- Schertz, 9-3, 1,462.54 (x)
- Pulley, 8-4, 1,326.44 (x)
- Mike R., 8-4, 1,221.23 (x)
- Matt, 7-5, 1,364.17
- Babel, 7-5, 1,203.00
- Derrek, 6-6, 1,266.15
- Kevin, 6-6, 1,232.37
- Rabbit, 6-6, 1,224.36
- Ed, 5-7, 1,184.37 (e)
- Pat, 5-7, 1,175.39 (e)
- Dave, 5-7, 1,116.88 (e)
- Scott, 4-8, 1,130.70 (e)
- Richie, 4-8, 1,091.44 (e)
- Rob, 4-8, 1,073.28 (e)
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums:
Rabbit's 147.13 is the sixth highest score this year and gives him his league-leading third Blangums.
Slapped Heartbeat:
Dave's 42.44 is the lowest score this year, the lowest since Pat scored 37.04 in week 5, 2015, and the seventh lowest ever.
I dove into the lowest scores in Blingaleague history five weeks back, so I won't add any more history here. But let's just say that Dave was just a Deebo Samuel (12.67) zero away from becoming the first team to score in the twenties.
Weekly MVP:
Chris Godwin's 36.53 led the way for Rabbit.
Dud of the Week:
James White's -0.30 was Dave's worst score.
Start of the Week:
Our closest game this week was not even within 20 points. No one gets this award.
Misplay of the Week:
See above.
Pickup of the Week:
Rabbit grabbed Ryan Tannehill and was rewarded with 34.45 points.
Blessed Cahoots:
Pulley's lucky Kevin put up his worst score in nearly three full seasons, as it helped him clinch a bye. (Oddly, Kevin's last three sub-65 scores came against Pulley.)
Playoff Scenarios
Schertz has clinched a playoff berth.
Schertz clinches a bye with:
- a win OR a Pulley loss OR a Mike R. loss.
Pulley has clinched a playoff berth.
Pulley clinches a bye with:
- a win AND a Mike R. loss.
Mike R. has clinched a playoff berth.
Mike R. clinches a bye with:
- a win AND a Pulley loss.
Matt clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win OR a Kevin loss.
Babel clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win OR a Kevin loss.
Derrek clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win AND a Kevin loss.
Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win AND a Kevin loss.
(Rob, Richie, Scott, Dave, Pat, and Ed have been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Playoff Scenarios, Part II
Schertz has effectively locked up a bye. The only way for him to fall to third place would be for him to lose, Pulley to win, Mike R. to win, Pulley to outscore him by more than 140 points, and Mike R. to outscore him by more than 240 points. So unless next week's Gazette is talking about two teams breaking the single-game scoring record, expect Schertz to get a free pass to the semifinals.
Pulley can't feel as confident in a bye, as a loss probably puts him behind Mike R. (wins) or Matt (points), depending on the outcome of that rivalry game. But if Pulley wins, it would be very unlikely for him to be passed in points.
Mike R. somehow clinched a playoff berth before week thirteen and could even luck into a bye if he wins and Rob upsets Pulley.
Matt is effectively in; he'd need to lose and get passed by the winner of Derrek/Rabbit and Kevin in points. His current lead over the best of those (Derrek) is nearly 100 points.
Babel is in with a win. If he loses, he'll almost certainly fall behind the winner of Derrek/Rabbit in points. He'll also likely be behind Kevin, but if Kevin loses, Babel would still make the playoffs based on his record.
Derrek should be in if he beats Rabbit, though Kevin could potentially pass him in points if he also wins (less than 35 points separate them).
Kevin can't make the playoffs if he loses, and if he wins, he still needs help. He needs a strong score of his own, either to catch Derrek or stay ahead of Rabbit (an 8.01 point gap currently).
Rabbit needs to win and Kevin to lose, or to win and outscore Kevin by 8.02.
For all of Derrek, Kevin, and Rabbit, a win plus a Babel loss probably means they'll pass him and make the playoffs.
Correction from Last Week
Editor's note: Last week, it was reported that Pulley's clinching scenario was "a win AND (a Derrek loss OR a Kevin loss OR a Babel loss)"; in fact, this should have read "a win", as he was playing Kevin in week twelve. The Sanderson Gazette regrets the oversight.
Record Watch
Let's check in on our Top Seasons page...
Schertz's 121.88 average score is currently the second highest ever. He'll need to score 133.18 to break 2018 Mike R.'s total points record of 1,595.71. He can't break 2018 Derrek's median score record of 126.61; if Schertz scores 126.28 or higher, his median will be 126.27.
Rabbit is currently looking to break 2013 Babel's record for standard deviation in score over the course of a season. Babel's was 30.92 that year, Rabbit's currently stands at 31.18. If Rabs scores 73.30 or less or 130.76 or more, he'll break Babel's record. Five of his previous twelve scores are extreme enough to do so.
(Kevin is also in the standard deviation mix. If he scores 62.16 or less or 143.23 or more, he'll pass 2013 Babel.)
Rabbit can also tie the record for combined Team Blangums and Slapped Heartbeats in a season. He has three Blangums and two Slapped Heartbeats. If he gets either one this week, he'll tie 2010 Rabbit (six Blangums) and 2018 Pat (six Slapped Heartbeats) with six awards in one season.
Week 13 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-6, 6th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 6-6, 8th):
Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-5.
This is the second year that this is an official rivalry. It's also the second time it's been the week thirteen Game of the Blingaweek.
If you had fast-forwarded here from week nine, you'd be quite surprised that Derrek needed to win this week to make the playoffs. He was tied for first at 6-3, had scored 116 or better for five straight weeks, and looked like he had a strong shot at becoming our first threepeat champion.
But week ten's surprise Slapped Heartbeat was a start of a trend: D hasn't broken the 90-point barrier since week nine, and is now fighting for his playoff life.
It appears Derrek is off the Steelers RB train, as both James Conner (vs. CLE) and Jaylen Samuels (vs. CLE) have been unreliable. He can always count on Christian McCaffrey (vs. WAS) to give him a great game; will he get enough from the rest of his lineup this week to return to the playoffs?
Rabbit's season has been one of the most unpredictable in history (see the "Record Watch" section above). He did lose one game where he scored 120, but also won one where he scored 70. He also has two games above 140 and one below 50. He's been all over the place. Needing a win (plus a little help) to make the playoffs, can he trust his team to show up?
Chris Godwin (@JAC) has the second most points among wide receivers, but he's done it in a way fitting to Rabbit's 2019 team: five games above 20 points, four below 10, and only three between 10 and 20.
It seems futile to predict a game involving Rabbit, but my low-confidence bet is that he gets revenge for late-season losses in 2017 and 2018 that kept him out of the postseason.
Pick: Pralines & Dick.
Other Blingamatches
Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 8-4, 3rd) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-5, 4th):
Matt leads all-time series, 11-5.
"The worst part of rivalry week is that it's Thanksgiving, so I have to sit face to face with Matt as games unfold." - Mike R.
Mike's peripherals don't tell the story of a team close to a bye - fifth in expected wins and seventh in total points - but his season hasn't been especially lucky. While he did get the fortune of facing Rabbit in the latter's disaster week, he also lost in a week where he scored over 110. Mike's fortune mostly comes from several minor boosts; he's had six games between 98 and 120, and won five of them.
On the other hand, Matt's been unlucky. He has three losses in which he scored 110 or more, and in two of those, he broke 120. He only failed to score 90 once (though he won that game). His point total and expected wins total (both second overall) suggest he should have a stronger shot at a bye.
Mike has some tough matchups this week for his QB (Dak Prescott, vs. BUF), top WR (DeAndre Hopkins, vs. NE), top RB (Tevin Coleman, @BAL), and TE (George Kittle, @BAL). Matt's MVP QB (Lamar Jackson, vs. SF) has possibly the worst matchup of all, though.
This is a tough one to call, so I'll bet on the historical trend of Matt tormenting Mike.
Pick: Harrison Hammers.
The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-6, 7th) vs. Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 5-7, 11th):
Kevin leads all-time series, 11-3.
For the second straight year, Kevin needs to beat Dave and get some help in week thirteen to make the playoffs. But while last year at this time he was fourth in expected wins and considered unlucky, this year he's ninth and no one is remarking on his fortune.
Dave has been eliminated from the playoffs prior to rivalry week for the second straight year, but at least this season was more fun.
Kevin's coming off his worst week of the year, but then again, so is Dave. Alvin Kamara (@ATL) should bounce back to his usual self for Kev soon, right? I'm thinking he will and Kevin will win... but also finish in seventh.
Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.
Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 7-5, 5th) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 5-7, 9th):
Babel leads all-time series, 10-5.
Babel's eighth by points and seventh by expected wins, but fifth by the thing that really counts: record. He kept afloat at 2-3 after five weeks, despite having five of his six worst scores to open the year. He's been on more of a roll lately, having topped 100 points the last four weeks.
Ed's season has been all over the place, but he can't really lament his luck. Outside of one devastating loss to Derrek, he's won the games in which he's broken 100 and lost the ones in which he hasn't. And since week five, he's alternated good and bad scores.
Ed could be in for a rough game from Deshaun Watson (vs. NE). Babel figures Drew Brees (@ATL) won't put up a second straight zero-TD game against the hapless Falcons. When you factor in Ed's odd-week trend, this seems like an easy prediction.
Pick: Baker Baker One-Nine.
Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 8-4, 2nd) vs. Rob for Tomorrow (Rob, 4-8, 14th):
Rob leads all-time series, 9-8.
"I'm going to bring Ryan Grant and Steve Smith and Rob Bironas out of retirement and/or grave to beat you." - Pulley
"This season is going to end as it always would: with me begrudgingly putting in a waiver claim for Rashaad Penny." - Rob
This marks the first time since 2012 that the Clash of Hatred doesn't feature two playoff teams (both teams missed that year). And through four weeks this year, it looked like it was going to be business as usual.
Pulley started 4-0 and was among the best teams ever through four weeks. Rob was 3-1, and although he hadn't been putting up super high scores, his record was legitimate.
However, the wheels completely fell off for Rob, and he's gone 1-7 since. Pulley's done somewhat better over the last eight weeks, at 4-4, but he's also won his last two games with sub-90 scores.
Despite Pulley's recent swoon, he still has a far better team. And I doubt Rashaad Penny will make up the difference.
Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.
schertzopotamus (Schertz, 9-3, 1st) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-7, 10th):
Schertz leads all-time series, 4-3.
Schertz has been the class of the Blingaleague for most of the year. His lone sub-90 blemish was a lucky win in week eleven, and he's scored 125 or more points six times - only Sanderson Cup winners 2018 Derrek (seven) and 2010 Rabbit (six) matched that feat.
Pat is only playing for pride at this point. He hasn't been able to get any momentum going this year, so he'll be sitting at home come week fourteen.
Pick: schertzopotamus.
Miami Dolphins (Scott, 4-8, 12th) vs. What a cellar year! (Richie, 4-8, 13th):
Scott leads all-time series, 1-0.
Scott gets Patrick Mahomes II (vs. OAK) back this week. That'll do, Dolphin. That'll do.
Pick: Miami Dolphins.
Closing Thoughts
Week twelve was the lowest scoring week since week nine, 2017 and it lands in the bottom 30 of all-time. It also had the fifth highest average margin ever.