The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-12-04 - A Penny for Your Hatred

Week 13 Recap

Rob def. Pulley, 110.25-95.12:

The Clash of Hatred lived up to expectations, and then some. Rob needed just under 22 points from Rashaad Penny (23.80) and Jason Myers (13.00) on Monday night to pull the big upset and knock Pulley out of a bye. Penny, whom Rob begrudgingly claimed off waivers, made up that difference on his own. Pulley got 26.10 from Tom Brady and 19.43 from Julian Edelman, but that wasn't enough to keep him from playing in the quarterfinals.

Dave def. Kevin, 142.20-80.89:

Dave had quite a fun rivalry week for a team that had zero chance of making the playoffs. Not only did he end Kevin's season with this win, but he took home Team Blangums for himself. James White had a completely unexpected 32.97 points to lead the way for Dave, and Aaron Rodgers (30.55) and Courtland Sutton (21.87) both had big weeks, as well. Kevin suffered through 1.33 from Hunter Henry and 1.07 from Jamison Crowder as his team dramatically underperformed.

This game was the third Gumslapper of 2019.

Derrek def. Rabbit, 116.26-105.51:

Unlike Kevin's, both of these guys' teams played like they wanted to make the playoffs. Alas, only Derrek could, thanks to Kyle Allen's 22.60 and James Washington's 20.80. Rabbit got 22.93 from Robert Woods and 20.53 from Davante Adams, but fell just short and landed in seventh place for the second straight year.

Matt def. Mike R., 116.07-111.85:

It says something that this shootout with a bye on the line fell to fourth in the reporting order this week. DeVante Parker put up a huge 33.20 for Mike, but Tevin Coleman (1.80) and George Kittle (1.97) couldn't crack four points combined. That meant that Kenny Golladay's 27.07 and Lamar Jackson's 22.85 was enough for Matt to slide into second place and get a free pass to the semifinals.

Babel def. Ed, 106.03-81.08:

If you had known that Deshaun Watson would put up 28.90 for Ed while Drew Brees only managed 13.10 for Babel, would you have figured Babel would be the one winning a blowout? Despite no twenty-point scorers (Devin Singletary led the way with 17.37), Babel still had a strong week. Ed was undone by 0.80 from Ronald Jones II, 0.67 from Noah Fant, and 2.87 from week twelve hero Jonathan Williams.

Pat def. Schertz, 96.20-88.70:

Carson Wentz (26.50) may be getting doubted in real life, but he led the way for Pat's big upset in fantasy this week. Schertz got another stellar game from Derrick Henry (21.17), but Tyler Lockett's zero prevented a Monday night comeback. With the loss, Schertz becomes the first regular season champion with fewer than ten wins since 2011 Ed.

Richie def. Scott, 113.27-97.75:

Jared Goff (28.70) and Tyler Higbee (20.27) exploded for Richie, who took down Scott in both Blingaleague and Scott's league this week.

Standings

  1. Schertz, 9-4, 1,551.24 (b)
  2. Matt, 8-5, 1,480.24 (b)
  3. Pulley, 8-5, 1,421.56 (x)
  4. Mike R., 8-5, 1,333.08 (x)
  5. Babel, 8-5, 1,309.03 (x)
  6. Derrek, 7-6, 1,382.41 (x)
  7. Rabbit, 6-7, 1,329.87
  8. Kevin, 6-7, 1,313.26
  9. Pat, 6-7, 1,271.59
  10. Dave, 6-7, 1,259.08
  11. Ed, 5-8, 1,265.45
  12. Richie, 5-8, 1,204.71
  13. Rob, 5-8, 1,183.53
  14. Scott, 4-9, 1,228.45

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Dave's second-half rally culminated with 142.20 points, giving him his only Team Blangums of the year.

The 25.94 point gap between Dave and Derrek, who had the second highest score of the week, is the 16th largest of all time (and second largest of 2019). Here are the twenty largest gaps ever.

  1. Week 10, 2012, 60.22 (Mike R. over Rob)
  2. Week 5, 2013, 48.93 (Rob over Pat)
  3. Week 8, 2013, 47.43 (Babel over Matt)
  4. Week 5, 2012, 45.56 (Ed over Mike R.)
  5. Week 9, 2019, 44.73 (Schertz over Derrek)
  6. Week 10, 2009, 43.86 (Ed over Allen)
  7. Week 4, 2011, 43.17 (Rob over Allen)
  8. Week 7, 2011, 42.99 (Rabbit over Dave)
  9. Week 9, 2013, 41.69 (Rabbit over Dave)
  10. Week 5, 2017, 39.22 (Babel over Rob)
  11. Week 1, 2014, 36.99 (Dave over Rob)
  12. Week 5, 2011, 36.94 (Kevin over Rabbit)
  13. Week 6, 2009, 36.23 (Pat over Kevin)
  14. Week 9, 2010, 36.23 (Rabbit over Derrek)
  15. Week 2, 2010, 28.25 (Matt over Dave)
  16. Week 13, 2019, 25.94 (Dave over Derrek)
  17. Week 8, 2015, 24.81 (Richie over Derrek)
  18. Week 8, 2011, 24.68 (Kevin over Mike R.)
  19. Week 9, 2009, 23.95 (Mike R. over Ed)
  20. Week 3, 2018, 23.91 (Rabbit over Babel)

Slapped Heartbeat:

Kevin's 80.89 was the low score this week.

Weekly MVP:

James White put up a big 32.97 for Dave.

Dud of the Week:

Tyler Lockett was healthy, but still scored zero points for Schertz.

Start of the Week:

Derrek played Kyle Allen's 22.60 over Derek Carr's 10.80 and won by less than eleven points.

Misplay of the Week:

Mike R. played Sack-of-Shit-turned-Golden-Bidet-turned-Sack-of-Shit-again Tevin Coleman over Darrel Williams, getting 1.80 instead of 7.70 and losing by less than five points.

Pickup of the Week:

Richie shrewdly picked up Tyler Higbee and was rewarded with 20.27 points. Rob picked up Rashaad Penny and got 23.80. We'll cut this award in half and give it to each of those two.

Season Postmortems

Scott Beitzel, 4-9, 1,228.45 points, 14th, 5.71 expected wins

Scott's second year in Blingaleague was quite a fall from his impressive debut season. He scored nearly 300 fewer points and finished in last place.

It's odd that his top historical comparison is a playoff team, 2008 Allen. But that version of Dr. Touchdown was very lucky to win eight games; while Scott lost three games in which he broke 100 this year, Allen won six games in which he failed to break triple digits in 2008.

Rob Gross, 5-8, 1,183.53 points, 13th, 4.85 expected wins

Rob started out 3-1 and looked like he'd continue his playoff streak, but then he lost seven straight games, failing to even crack 90 points in the process. He did rebound towards the end of the season, and, importantly, defeated his nemesis in the Clash of Hatred.

The 2012 version of Kevin is a team that no one remembers, for good reason. He, too, was 3-8 before rallying to win his final two games.

Richie Armour, 5-8, 1,204.71 points, 12th, 5.13 expected wins

Richie joins 2017 Allen as a team that took two steps backward for every one step forward; his won/loss pattern went W-L-L all year long.

But 2017 Allen doesn't even appear on Richie's top ten similar teams list. The actual leader on that list is 2014 Derrek; both Richie and 2014 D just cleared five expected wins, and both won five games.

Ed Gross, 5-8, 1,265.45 points, 11th, 5.89 expected wins

Ed's 2019 team was almost unmanageable, as it literally bounced from very good to very bad on a week to week basis. The only time he put up a score that had a 40% to 60% expected win percentage was week three's 102.86, and from week seven on, his expected wins by week were 0.83, 0.20, 0.85, 0.01, 0.82, and 0.21. He had only three games decided by less 19.55 points (the league median margin); no one else had less than five. His team either collectively showed up or it didn't, and it was rare that you could point at any one player that made a difference.

It's not obvious why 2010 Rob is his top comparison.

Dave Fultz, 6-7, 1,259.08 points, 10th, 5.92 expected wins

Man, what a ride Dave had in 2019. He became the eighth team ever to start 0-5, but then he rallied to win his next four games. He then put up the lowest score of the entire season in week twelve, but bounced back to win $10 in week thirteen.

His top comparison is 2016 Babel, who also went 6-2 from week six on. However, Babel did manage one win in his first five weeks that year, so he snuck into the playoffs.

Pat Gawne, 6-7, 1,271.59 points, 9th, 5.85 expected wins

Pat's 2019 was miles better than his 2018, when he set the record for most Slapped Heartbeats. And he even won his first Team Blangums in nearly ten years! But ultimately, he finished 6-7 for the third season in the last five, and failed to make the playoffs for the eleventh straight time.

He's similar to 2012 Allen, who also won Team Blangums early in the year, but was never a serious contender.

Kevin Pattermann, 6-7, 1,313.26 points, 8th, 5.87 expected wins

Kevin set a new scoring record, but failed to make the playoffs, in part because he couldn't even break 90 points in week twelve or thirteen. His disappointing finish puts an end to a streak of three straight semifinals appearances.

He shares a top comp with Dave: 2016 Babel.

Nick "Rabbit" Warren, 6-7, 1,329.87 points, 7th, 6.52 expected wins

Rabbit, like Kevin, was all over the place this year. He had the most Team Blangums awards in the league this year... but also the most Slapped Heartbeats. For the third straight year, a late-season loss to Derrek kept him out of the playoffs

He's most similar to 2014 Ed, who also took a tough loss to his rival to keep him out of the postseason.

Quarterfinals Preview

#4 Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 8-5) vs. #5 Baker Baker One-Nine (Babel, 8-5):

Mike R. leads all-time series, 8-6.

These are two of our hottest teams. From week seven on, both Mike and Mark have gone 5-2. Mark is second in expected wins (4.22) and third in points (761.25) in that time frame, while Mike is fourth in both figures (4.02, 751.60).

Mike's strength is his WR corps. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. DEN) has been a top WR for years. Cooper Kupp (vs. SEA) had a hot start and bounced back from a bad stretch last week. DeVante Parker (@NYJ) has emerged as a great play late in the season. And Calvin Ridley (vs. CAR) has quietly produced all year. All four are ranked in the top 20 on the season.

Babel's strength, on the other hand, is his stable of RBs. Ezekiel Elliott (@CHI) has only one game in single digits all year. Josh Jacobs (vs. TEN) has only four. And Devin Singletary (vs. BAL) has broken out late in the year and led Babel in points last week.

This one might come down to QBs, though. Dak Prescott (@CHI) has a tough matchup for Mike; Babel will be forced to choose between Drew Brees (vs. SF), with his own horrible matchup, and Baker Mayfield (vs. CIN), who's been very hard to rely on.

These two have met in the quarterfinals before, when Babel took down Mike as the second of the video game bosses that he faced to end the season. Can Mike get his belated revenge this time around?

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

#3 Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 8-5) vs. #6 D's Nuts (Derrek, 7-6):

Pulley leads all-time series, 8-6.

Pulley nearly nabbed a bye, but he's really stumbled to end the season. From week seven on, he's earned only 2.93 expected wins; only Scott (2.60), Pat (2.50), and Rob (2.50) have fewer. He's failed to score 100 points the last four weeks. The last time he had a streak that long was 2013. The good news is that he bounced back to score 112.79 and defeat Mike R. in the quarterfinals that year.

Derrek's season also took a turn for the worse in week ten, when he failed to break 90 points for three straight weeks. He did bounce back to win a do-or-die rivalry week game to keep his dream of three straight Sanderson Cups alive.

Pulley's three Patriots have both good and bad matchups this week. Their game vs. KC could turn into a shootout, which would be good for Tom Brady and Julian Edelman, but not so much for their defense. Pulley's picked up the Cowboys to fill in.

D, of course, has Christian McCaffrey (@ATL). He's got a good matchup, but also has been pretty matchup-proof all year. If Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. CIN) finally turns his season around, D could pull off the upset here.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Closing Thoughts

I cited some stats from week seven on in the previews. Here's a full list of expected wins and points for the second half of the season.

Expected wins:

  1. Matt: 5.00
  2. Babel: 4.22
  3. Schertz: 4.11
  4. Mike R.: 4.02
  5. Derrek: 3.97
  6. Dave: 3.97
  7. Ed: 3.25
  8. Kevin: 3.23
  9. Rabbit: 3.04
  10. Richie: 3.02
  11. Pulley: 2.93
  12. Scott: 2.60
  13. Pat: 2.50
  14. Rob: 2.50

Points:

  1. Matt: 821.65
  2. Schertz: 794.78
  3. Babel: 761.25
  4. Mike R.: 751.60
  5. Derrek: 741.94
  6. Dave: 728.22
  7. Ed: 682.79
  8. Kevin: 682.30
  9. Pulley: 665.50
  10. Rabbit: 664.67
  11. Richie: 659.67
  12. Pat: 635.14
  13. Rob: 630.01
  14. Scott: 620.45