The Sanderson Gazette - 2019-12-24 - Schertz So Good

Blingabowl XII Recap

Schertz def. Matt, 119.65-106.01:

What a Blingabowl! Like Pulley in Blingabowl I, Schertz took the lead for good behind a Green Bay running back's late-game Monday night performance. Aaron Jones put up a Sanderson-Cup-winning 26.20 for the Packers, but he wasn't close to being Schertz's leading scorer. Saquon Barkley put up an amazing 42.90 for our champ, which was necessary thanks to his Seahawks - Russell Wilson (10.15) and Tyler Lockett (1.60) - and Zach Ertz (3.73) shitting the bed.

Matt got the usual 32.20 from Lamar Jackson and 24.40 from Mark Andrews, but had a few duds of his own in Anthony Miller (0.27) and the Washington defense (-4.00).

Derrek def. Mike R., 93.08-89.91:

DeVante Parker (20.80) and George Kittle (16.53) did their best, but Mike continued his streak of failing to finish in the money. Instead, Christian McCaffrey's 21.27 led the way for D to improve to 5-0 in week sixteen (only Pulley's 6-0 mark is better).

Final Standings

  1. Schertz
  2. Matt
  3. Derrek
  4. Mike R.
  5. Babel
  6. Pulley
  7. Rabbit
  8. Kevin
  9. Pat
  10. Dave
  11. Ed
  12. Richie
  13. Rob
  14. Scott

Final Payouts

(First-second-third pays out $258-$129-$43.)

  • Schertz: $278 (first place plus two Blangums)
  • Matt: $139 (second place plus one Blangums)
  • Derrek: $43 (third place)
  • Rabbit: $30 (three Blangums)
  • Pulley: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Mike R.: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Babel: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Kevin: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Pat: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Dave: $10 (one Blangums)
  • Ed: $10 (one Blangums)

There were eleven teams that either finished top three or won a Team Blangums award this year.

Shockingly, that's only tied for the most ever. If you go back to 2008, there were also eleven teams that would have been paid if we had Team Blangums payouts back then. Amazingly, Babel, who went 11-2, finished in first place, and had one of the highest expected win totals ever, was the lone team that didn't meet modern payout criteria in 2008.

Annual Awards

Team Blangums:

Schertz joins 2010 Rabbit, 2013 Matt, 2015 Pulley, and 2016 Kevin as teams that finished in first place, had the most points, and won the Sanderson Cup.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Rob had the fewest points (1,183.53) and expected wins (4.85) this year, and did it against the league's weakest schedule (-23.5%).

Annual MVP:

Lamar Jackson was the key to Matt's resurgence and nearly brought him his fourth championship.

Dud of the Year:

There are plenty to choose from. Antonio Brown played a single game for Derrek. JuJu Smith-Schuster was bad but healthy for most the season, so Matt was playing him. Alvin Kamara had injuries and a long touchdown drought.

But we'll give this to someone Rob traded for to salvage his season: David Johnson. In the five weeks following the trade, thanks to injury and ineffectiveness, Johnson put up a combined -0.53. Yes, negative.

Pickup of the Year:

This one has to go to Mike R. in some form. Look at the trades he made. Dak Prescott, George Kittle, and DeVante Parker were all key players in Mike's run to the semifinals.

Season Postmortems

Matt Harrison, 8-5 (0.615), 1,480.24 points, 2nd (regular season), 2nd (playoffs), 8.69 expected wins

Matt reached the Blingabowl last year, but this was the first time he came close to his dominant 2012 and 2013 seasons. He passed Schertz in expected wins by the end of the year, but couldn't win a close Blingabowl XII.

Seeing 2018 Mike R. atop his similar seasons list is fitting. Last year, Mike was the best regular season team by expected wins and earned a bye, but couldn't take home the Sanderson Cup.

Mike Schertz, 9-4 (0.692), 1,551.24 points, 1st (regular season), Blingabowl XII champion (playoffs), 8.50 expected wins

Schertz looked like the team to beat since midseason and ultimately fulfilled his potential. He made a blockbuster trade with Dave to load up for the playoffs, and while Tyreek Hill came through, his other big acquisition nearly killed his season. Both the tight end he traded away (Dallas Goedert) and the one he cut (Jonnu Smith) outscored Ertz by more than ten points. Thankfully, he kept faith in Aaron Jones and will get his name on Sandy.

His top comp, 2014 Dave, doesn't have many surface similarities. Dave did have 8.40 expected wins, but wound up in sixth place thanks to some tough luck.

Blingapower Rankings

14. Pat Gawne (last year: 14th)

  • 2019: 6-7, 1,271.59 points, 5.85 expected wins, 9th place
  • Overall record: 56-87, 0.392 (13th), 0.381 expected winning percentage (14th)
  • Last five years: 27-38, 0.415 (12th), 0.396 expected winning percentage (14th)

Pat had good enough seasons in 2016 and 2017 that #PlayoffPat became a trending topic. But the last two years have not been kind to him, and when you look at his last five years in the aggregate, he's still the same old Pat.

NFL equivalent: Washington.

13. Richie Armour (last year: 13th)

  • 2019: 5-8, 1,204.71 points, 5.13 expected wins, 12th place
  • Overall record: 41-63, 0.394 (12th), 0.409 expected winning percentage (13th), 1 playoff appearance
  • Last five years: 28-37, 0.431 (11th), 0.433 expected winning percentage (13th), 1 playoff appearance

As Richie's strong 2015 team fades into memory, it's easy to keep him only ahead of Pat.

NFL equivalent: New York Giants.

12. Scott Beitzel (last year: 12th)

  • 2019: 4-9, 1,228.45 points, 5.71 expected wins, 14th place
  • Overall record: 10-16, 0.385 (14th), 0.525 expected winning percentage (6th)
  • Last five years: 10-16, 0.385 (13th), 0.525 expected winning percentage (7th)

Scott's expansion season was better than his final record. This year, he wasn't the worst team, but finishing in last wasn't a travesty.

NFL equivalent: Los Angeles Chargers.

11. Ed Gross (last year: 10th)

  • 2019: 5-8, 1,265.45 points, 5.89 expected wins, 11th place
  • Overall record: 77-79, 0.494 (8th), 0.515 expected winning percentage (8th), 6 playoff appearances, 1 Blingabowl appearance
  • Last five years: 25-40, 0.385 (14th), 0.478 expected winning percentage (11th)

Ed's now gone six seasons without making the playoffs, the exact opposite of how he fared prior to that. And would you have guessed that he has the worst record in the league over the past five seasons? He has been a bit unlucky converting points into wins, though 2019 wasn't particularly notable when it comes to bad luck.

NFL equivalent: Atlanta Falcons.

10. Dave Fultz (last year: 9th)

  • 2019: 6-7, 1,259.08 points, 5.92 expected wins, 10th place
  • Overall record: 68-88, 0.436 (11th), 0.521 expected winning percentage (7th), 2 playoff appearances
  • Last five years: 30-35, 0.462 (9th), 0.540 expected winning percentage (2nd), 1 playoff appearance

By expected wins, it's Dave - not Kevin, Derrek, or Matt - who's second to Pulley over the past five years. He's had some disappointing playoff experiences, though, and the last two years he's been an also-ran.

NFL equivalent: Carolina Panthers.

9. Nick "Rabbit" Warren (last year: 6th)

  • 2019: 6-7, 1,329.87 points, 6.52 expected wins, 7th place
  • Overall record: 94-62, 0.603 (1st), 0.658 expected winning percentage (1st), 6 playoff appearances, 5 Blingabowl appearances, 2 Sanderson Cups
  • Last five years: 33-32, 0.508 (7th), 0.508 expected winning percentage (9th), 1 playoff appearance, 1 Blingabowl appearance

Rabbit was one of the hardest teams to rank. He's still on top of our all-time standings, but the past five years have really put a dent in his dominance.

NFL equivalent: Pittsburgh Steelers.

8. Rob Gross (last year: 5th)

  • 2019: 5-8, 1,183.53 points, 4.85 expected wins, 13th place
  • Overall record: 85-71, 0.545 (4th), 0.535 expected winning percentage (5th), 9 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances
  • Last five years: 36-29, 0.554 (4th), 0.528 expected winning percentage (6th), 4 playoff appearances

Rob had his worst season ever in 2019, breaking a streak of six consecutive playoff appearances.

NFL equivalent: Indianapolis Colts.

7. Mike Romor (last year: 8th)

  • 2019: 8-5, 1,333.08 points, 6.77 expected wins, 4th place
  • Overall record: 77-79, 0.494 (10th), 0.490 expected winning percentage (10th), 5 playoff appearances
  • Last five years: 33-32, 0.508 (8th), 0.452 expected winning percentage (12th), 3 playoff appearances

In the last five years, Mike's had an all-time great season that ended in playoff heartbreak, two solid playoff seasons, and two awful ones. He moves up for the second straight year, as making the playoffs - and winning his first playoff game ever! - means something.

NFL equivalent: Los Angeles Rams.

6. Mark Babel (last year: 7th)

  • 2019: 8-5, 1,309.03 points, 6.39 expected wins, 5th place
  • Overall record: 78-78, 0.500 (6th), 0.540 expected winning percentage (4th), 7 playoff appearances, 3 Blingabowl appearances, 1 Sanderson Cup
  • Last five years: 30-35, 0.462 (10th), 0.509 expected winning percentage (8th), 3 playoff appearances, 1 Blingabowl appearance

The last five years cutoff is a little unfair to Babel, as it starts just after his Blingabowl VII victory, and his overall body of work and a 2019 playoff appearance - combined with falls by Rabbit and Rob - push him into the top six.

NFL equivalent: Green Bay Packers.

5. Mike Schertz (last year: 11th)

  • 2019: 9-4, 1,551.24 points, 8.50 expected wins, Blingabowl XII champion
  • Overall record: 52-52, 0.500 (7th), 0.488 expected winning percentage (11th), 3 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances, 1 Sanderson Cup
  • Last five years: 36-29, 0.554 (3rd), 0.529 expected winning percentage (5th), 3 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances, 1 Sanderson Cup

It's unsurprising that the clear top team and Sanderson Cup winner this year has the biggest jump in the Blingapower Rankings. His three semifinals appearances in the past five years is tied for the most in the league (with Kevin, Derrek, and Pulley), so this doesn't seem to be too high, though.

NFL equivalent: San Francisco 49ers.

4. Kevin Patterman (last year: 2nd)

  • 2019: 6-7, 1,313.26 points, 5.87 expected wins, 8th place
  • Overall record: 77-79, 0.494 (9th), 0.507 expected winning percentage (9th), 5 playoff appearances, 1 Blingabowl appearance, 1 Sanderson Cup
  • Last five years: 37-28, 0.569 (2nd), 0.532 expected winning percentage (3rd), 3 playoff appearances, 1 Blingabowl appearance, 1 Sanderson Cup

Despite a disappointing 2019, Kevin stays in the top four due to his overall recent body of work.

NFL equivalent: Philadelphia Eagles.

3. Adam Pulley (last year: 1st)

  • 2019, 8-5, 1,421.56 points, 7.41 expected wins, 6th place
  • Overall record: 93-63, 0.596 (2nd), 0.558 expected winning percentage (2nd), 9 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances, 2 Sanderson Cups
  • Last five years: 48-17, 0.738 (1st), 0.650 expected winning percentage, 5 playoff appearances, 1 Blingabowl appearance, 1 Sanderson Cup

No one has been as consistently good at winning regular season games lately than Pulley. But a second straight early playoff exit - when the two teams ahead of him comprise four of the six Blingabowl teams the past three years - means he slides to third. It's cutthroat here at the top.

NFL equivalent: New Orleans Saints.

2. Derrek Drenckpohl (last year: 3rd)

  • 2019: 7-6, 1,382.41 points, 7.49 expected wins, 3rd place
  • Overall record: 83-73, 0.532 (5th), 0.479 expected winning percentage (12th), 7 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances, 2 Sanderson Cups
  • Last five years: 35-30, 0.538 (5th), 0.491 expected winning percentage (10th), 3 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances, 2 Sanderson Cups

D followed up his back-to-back Sanderson Cups with a semifinals appearance, but he needed a win on the last day of the season to even make the playoffs. That's enough to keep him out of the top spot. Again, it's cutthroat up here.

NFL equivalent: Seattle Seahawks.

1. Matt Harrison (last year: 4th)

  • 2019: 8-5, 1,480.24 points, 8.69 expected wins, 2nd place
  • Overall record: 87-69, 0.558 (3rd), 0.554 expected winning percentage (3rd), 8 playoff appearances, 6 Blingabowl appearances, 3 Sanderson Cups
  • Last five years: 34-31, 0.523 (6th), 0.532 expected winning percentage (4th), 3 playoff appearances, 2 Blingabowl appearances

Matt has more Sanderson Cups than any other franchise. Only Rabbit and Pulley have arguments that their entire body of work is as impressive, and neither of them has made the Blingabowl the past two years. Matt has done it twice.

NFL equivalent: New England Patriots.

Draft Lottery

As a reminder, here are the odds at getting the #1 pick in 2020:

  • Scott: 22.31%
  • Rob: 15.84%
  • Richie: 15.63%
  • Ed: 15.01%
  • Dave: 8.15%
  • Pat: 8.02%
  • Kevin: 7.60%
  • Rabbit: 7.43%

Rule Change Proposals

Thank you to everyone who voted. Twelve votes came in, and that was enough to make some rulings.

We will not be reducing roster size. Eight members voted against that proposal.

We will not be changing waiver method. Ten voters either "liked" or "loved" rolling waivers, and there was nowhere near the same consensus for other options.

We will be changing the initial waiver wire order. This means that, following the draft, the waiver priority will be the reverse order of last season's standings (e.g. Scott will have the #1 priority, Rob #2, Matt #13, Schertz #14).

We will be keeping the fifth place game. Only seven of the twelve voters were in favor of removing it, which is less than the eight votes required. (Non-votes count towards the status quo.)

Closing Thoughts

Hope everyone had a great Blingaseason, and that you all have a wonderful Christmas and New Year!