The Sanderson Gazette - 2020-09-29 - Learning from the Past

Mike R.: "My team can just nuke itself"

Mike R. "Which, by the way, nuke autocorrected to Mike"

Week 3 Recap

Rob def. Ed, 173.95-132.91:

For the second straight week, Rob got huge games from Russell Wilson (37.95) and the Indianapolis defense (28.00). And don't forget Tyler Lockett (31.33) and James Robinson (27.67). Ed could only sit and watch, despite putting up the third highest score of the week behind Alvin Kamara (36.33).

Scott def. Babel, 119.08-112.47:

Scott needed Patrick Mahomes II (43.85) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (15.73) to outscore Travis Kelce (11.60) by more than 41 points on Monday night. Kelce had a good game... but Mahomes in particular had an amazing one, and Babel took a tough loss. The Ghost of Doctor Touchdown was alive and well for Mark, as Allen Robinson II (22.40) and Keenan Allen (21.60) both scored more than twenty points.

Pulley def. Derrek, 115.20-94.86:

Pulley moved to 3-0 and prevented D from getting there behind Aaron Rodgers (26.85) and the Patriots defense (15.00). Derrek got 22.23 from James Conner, but the rest of his offensive players underperformed, notably Diontae Johnson (0.90).

Mike R. def. Rabbit, 106.48-100.73:

Bernie avoided an 0-3 start thanks to new acquisition Nick Chubb (23.07) and a pair of Sunday night Saints (Drew Brees (25.40) and Wil Lutz (13.00)). Rabs got good weeks from Kyler Murray (23.90), Rodrigo Blankenship (11.00), and the Cleveland defense (11.00), but could have used more from Logan Thomas (4.13) and DeSean Jackson (1.47).

Richie def. Schertz, 104.89-85.33:

Richie joined Pulley in the 3-0 ranks despite his defense (Washington) putting up -2.00. That was because Tyreek Hill (18.77), DK Metcalf (18.67), and Calvin Ridley (15.37) all delivered. Schertz suffered through 0.67 from Marquez Valdes-Scantling and somehow only 2.00 from Harrison Butker in a game where his team scored 34 points.

Matt def. Dave, 135.99-74.49:

Dave won the battle of QBs, as Dak Prescott (31.20) outscored Lamar Jackson (13.15) by a good amount. But Matt won just about everywhere else. Dalvin Cook (24.50) and Michael Gallup (24.40) were Matt's top two scorers, and DeAndre Hopkins (18.27) and Robert Woods (18.87) also put up good results.

Pat def. Kevin, 82.96-74.29:

Jimmy Graham (20.00) was Pat's surprising high scorer this week, and new RB Darrell Henderson, Jr. added 18.20. That was enough to beat Kevin, for whom only Josh Allen (32.35) met or exceeded expectations.

Standings

  1. Pulley, 3-0, 339.44
  2. Richie, 3-0, 321.45
  3. Rob, 2-1, 415.97
  4. Scott, 2-1, 344.03
  5. Derrek, 2-1, 335.50
  6. Matt, 2-1, 334.14
  7. Pat, 2-1, 320.55
  8. Babel, 2-1, 317.37
  9. Kevin, 1-2, 333.82
  10. Schertz, 1-2, 305.16
  11. Mike R., 1-2, 299.03
  12. Ed, 0-3, 355.06
  13. Rabbit, 0-3, 288.11
  14. Dave, 0-3, 243.98

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Rob, 671
  2. Ed, 625
  3. Scott, 609
  4. Pulley, 570
  5. Derrek, 561
  6. Matt, 524
  7. Kevin, 521
  8. Richie, 513
  9. Babel, 492
  10. Pat, 489
  11. Schertz, 443
  12. Mike R., 414
  13. Rabbit, 360
  14. Dave, 208

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Rob's 173.95 is the fourth highest score of all time. It also earns him his second straight Team Blangums.

Three other teams have won two Team Blangums in the first three weeks of a season: 2013 Matt, 2014 Pulley, and 2017 Pulley. In a neat quirk, they all also won in weeks 2 and 3.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Kevin's 74.29 just edged out Dave's 74.49 for this award.

Weekly MVP:

Patrick Mahomes II put up 43.85 for Scott.

Dud of the Week:

The Saints defense scored -6.00 for Kevin. We'll come back to this.

Start of the Week:

Mike R. didn't let Drew Brees's slow start worry him too much. He netted 5.90 by playing Brees's 25.40 over Joe Burrow's 19.50 and won his matchup by 5.75.

Misplay of the Week:

You have to wonder why Kev went with the New Orleans defense against a Packers team that had scored more than 40 points in each of the first two weeks. The -6.00 scored by the Saints directly led to not only a Slapped Heartbeat, but also a plain old loss; there were seven defenses available in week three that would have made a nine point difference for Kevin and resulted in him beating Pat.

Pickup of the Week:

Nick Chubb (23.07) was great for Mike R.

Blessed Cahoots:

Dave put up a score we all assumed would earn him his second Slapped Heartbeat of the year, but then the Saints defense bottomed out on Sunday night, saving him that shame.

Week 4 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Ds Nuts (Derrek, 2-1, 5th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 2-1, 3rd):

Rob leads all-time series, 8-7.

Derrek's bid for a 3-0 start was thwarted by Pulley, which isn't really surprising; despite his recent playoff success, D doesn't traditionally get off to strong starts. There's not really a great comparison for Derrek among his own recent teams, so let's look more generally. His three most similar historical teams - 2009 Babel, 2009 Allen, and 2008 Katie - all lost in week 4... and weeks 5 and 6. Given how injuries have started to pile up for D, that has to scare him.

Rob, on the other hand, is no stranger to strong starts; this is his fifth straight year being above .500 after three weeks, and the third time in that span he's had 2 expected wins or more. (This year is by far his highest point total, but expected wins accounts for the increased scoring environment, as well as the diminishing returns of outlier high scores. For example, in a neutral scoring environment, increasing your score from 144 to 174 only adds 0.03 expected wins, whereas increasing it from 114 to 144 adds 0.21.) Rob is very similar to the 2011 version of himself; that team started 2-1, earned its second Team Blangums in week 4, and ultimately lost in the semifinals. There's no reason to doubt Rob's chances of making the playoffs this year.

There's also no reason to doubt Rob's combination of Russell Wilson (@MIA) and Tyler Lockett (@MIA). That will likely be the difference in week 4, as Rob ((Ezekiel Elliott (vs. CLE) and James Robinson (@CIN)) and D (James Conner (@TEN) and Jonathan Taylor (@CHI)) are pretty even at RB.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Other Blingamatches

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 2-1, 6th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 1-2, 9th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 8-5.

Some good news for Matt: all three of his Sanderson Cups came in seasons where he started 2-1. His 2009 championship season appears as quite a strong comparison to this year, which has to make him optimistic. And the two previous times he's had his heartbeat slapped in week 1 or 2, he's made it to the Blingabowl; this is almost certainly meaningless, but still encouraging.

Kevin's recent history doesn't offer much help looking ahead, though it's worth revisiting his often-referenced 2013 season. That year, he had great weeks 1 and 2, but then had the league low in week 3; at least this year he has a win banked. As far as historical comparisons, 2018 Babel is close to Kevin in record, expected wins, and strength of schedule through three weeks, though the shape of his season to that point was quite different (two mediocre scores followed by an above-average one).

In terms of this matchup, Kevin's Josh Allen (@LV) seems to have taken over where Matt's Lamar Jackson (@WAS) left off last year. Matt still has Dalvin Cook (@HOU) and DeAndre Hopkins (@CAR) going strong, though. If Davante Adams (vs. ATL) misses another week for Kev, this is an easy pick. And if not, it still leans in Matt's favor.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Keep Calm & Kerryon (Babel, 2-1, 8th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 2-1, 7th):

Pat leads all-time series, 6-5.

Babel's last four seasons are all over the place. A rather unlucky start in 2017 is almost a mirror image of his very lucky 2019. And this year and 2018 are about as close to .500 quality as there has been. Historically, 2016 Pat is Babel's most similar team so far; that was the year Pat finished above .500 when he had less than five expected wins.

Speaking of Pat, that 2016 version of him was the last time he started 2-1. But his most similar team is 2008 Derrek, which bodes poorly; D lost his last five games to miss the playoffs that year.

Pat will hope Darrell Henderson, Jr. (vs. NYG) continues putting up stellar scores, and that Matt Ryan (@GB) bounces back from a rough week 3. Babel will hope for the same from Cam Newton (@KC), and that his Allens - Keenan (@TAM) and Robinson II (vs. IND) - repeat their week 3 success.

Pick: Keep Calm & Kerryon.

Live Commish (Ed, 0-3, 12th) vs. DK Country (Richie, 3-0, 2nd):

All-time series tied, 4-4.

This is the third time in five years that Ed has had an expected winning percentage of .600 or better through three weeks. The other two years he was 2-1, but fell from 5th to 9th place by season's end each time. His two most similar 0-3 teams are the aforementioned 2013 Kevin and 2016 Rabbit, who rallied to earn a bye and make the Blingabowl. (Those two comps, respectively, ranked 5th and 7th in points and expected wins; Ed is 2nd this year.)

Meanwhile, this is Richie's first 3-0 start ever! Fittingly, his most similar team is this year's other 3-0 squad, Pulley, so we'll look to #2, 2015 Schertz. Schertz, like Richie, had a better score in week 1 than in weeks 2 or 3, and the bad news is that he lost his next two games. Of course, the good news is that he finished in second and made the Blingabowl.

This week, Ed has some good matchups for Alvin Kamara (@DET), David Johnson (vs. MIN), and Brandin Cooks (vs. MIN). Richie has much stronger WRs, though: Tyreek Hill (vs. NE), DK Metcalf (@MIA), and Calvin Ridley (@GB).

Pick: Live Commish.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 1-2, 11th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 3-0, 1st):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-6.

Mike looks like he's off to a similar start to last year, when he also was 0-2 before gutting out a win in week 3 and eventually making the playoffs. While that season does appear among his most similar, it's 2011 Matt who tops that list. That's 2011 Matt who got hot in the playoffs and made the Blingabowl.

Remarkably, Pulley is 3-0 for the sixth time in the last eight years. Looking beyond just previous Pullmen, 2015 Schertz appears as his most similar team; and as detailed in Richie's preview, that comes with some immediate lows but longer-term highs.

Pulley has to love the matchups for Aaron Rodger (vs. ATL), Aaron Jones (vs. ATL), and Kenyan Drake (@CAR), if not the New England defense's (@KC). Mike will look for Drew Brees (@DET) and Nick Chubb (@DAL) to stay hot.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 0-3, 14th) vs. The Fantasy FB Team (Scott, 2-1, 4th):

All-time series tied, 1-1.

Dave is 0-3 for the third straight year. Dave has just over 240 points through three weeks for the third straight year. Dave has an expected winning percentage hovering near the Mendoza Line for the third straight year. So it's no surprise that the 2019 and 2018 versions of Dave are #1 and #2 on 2020 Dave's list of most similar teams. The third - possibly more interesting - entry is 2017 Matt. We're so used to Matt being a top team that we probably forgot he started 0-3 and stumbled to a 5-8 record that year. (Hey, I said possibly more interesting.)

Scott doesn't have a lot of history to look back on. So while it's good that this season is his best start ever, it's also not especially impressive. His top comparison is last year's Kevin, who was solid but lost his last two games to miss the playoffs.

Dak Prescott (vs. CLE) has been Dave's lone strength this season, and now he faces a QB (Patrick Mahomes II (vs. NE)) who he's not projected to outscore.

Pick: The Fantasy FB Team.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 0-3, 13th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 1-2, 10th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 6-2.

Something to give Rabbit hope: the last time he started 0-3, he finished 9-4. But if you expand the comparison pool, his 2020 team is much more like 2010 Kevin, who fell to 0-5 before finishing a more respectable 5-8.

Schertz has not been below .500 after three weeks since his expansion 2012 season, when he was 0-3. It's probably best to look to other franchises, where his list of most similar teams has some divergent results. The top team there is 2014 Matt, who wound up losing in the semifinals. The second team there is 2013 Rabbit, who finished 11th.

Closing Thoughts

Week 3 produced an average score of over 108, putting it 17th all time.

The season average so far has been 108.42, the highest ever through three weeks. Here are the averages for past seasons through three weeks, along with where they ended up.

  • 2008: 90.92 (92.45 final)
  • 2009: 96.31 (99.57 final)
  • 2010: 97.05 (96.99 final)
  • 2011: 105.29 (101.33 final)
  • 2012: 96.66 (96.36 final)
  • 2013: 102.50 (97.29 final)
  • 2014: 97.99 (98.61 final)
  • 2015: 101.23 (96.98 final)
  • 2016: 103.90 (99.14 final)
  • 2017: 92.48 (95.61 final)
  • 2018: 103.92 (106.50 final)
  • 2019: 105.04 (101.83 final)