The Sanderson Gazette - 2020-10-06 - Clueless

Week 4 Recap

Rabbit def. Schertz, 148.92-97.67:

Before we recap our more dramatic finishes, let's start with Rabbit's explosion to earn his first win. Joe Mixon (37.10) finally came through with a huge game, and Amari Cooper (25.87), Will Fuller V (20.40), and the Kansas City defense (20.00) also all delivered. Schertz got some unexpectedly stellar scores from Kareem Hunt (19.10) and O.J. Howard (12.67), but the rest of his roster couldn't score enough to avoid a 1-3 start.

Pulley def. Mike R., 131.05-119.38:

Bernie led by more than 30 points heading into Monday night, with Julio Jones (4.27) going against Aaron Rodgers (32.35) and Aaron Jones (18.43). You could add up those scores yourself, but if you don't want to, I can tell you Pulley had a big come-from-behind win. George Kittle returned to action with 31.20 for Mike, but Nick Chubb (4.30) and Julio Jones suffered injuries that sunk his team.

Richie def. Ed, 96.05-92.95:

Richie barely trailed by double digits after Sunday's games, so having Tyreek Hill (14.53) and Calvin Ridley (zero) going meant he could be confident he'd wind up winning. He wound up being kind of lucky, since Ridley failed to do anything. But Ed had his own zero WR (Brandin Cooks), offsetting great games from Alvin Kamara (19.10) and Mike Davis (18.00).

Pat def. Babel, 92.09-90.43:

This one was also close prior to Monday night, and Babel was hanging on by a thread right down to the wire. But Matt Ryan (13.25) threw for enough yardage on a meaningless final drive for Pat to pull ahead and move to 3-1. Babel can't feel too bad, as he was led by fellow garbage time star Allen Robinson II (19.47). D.J. Chark, Jr. put up 24.67 for Pat.

Kevin def. Matt, 124.84-96.59:

Josh Allen (27.80) outdueled Lamar Jackson (26.45) in this one, though the final margin was a bit wider than the QBs would indicated. Kevin also got 22.83 from CeeDee Lamb and 18.50 from Todd Gurley II, which mean Dalvin Cook's 27.13 for Matt went for naught.

Dave def. Scott, 103.56-77.17:

Dave got his first win of the season behind Dak Prescott (40.80). Melvin Gordon III (24.17) and Jerry Jeudy (14.13) took advantage of playing against the Jets, and only only one other player (Daniel Carson (13.00)) even broke five points for Dave. Scott had a few more clear that barrier, but only the Rams defense (11.00) actually outscored their Yahoo projection.

Rob def. Derrek, 103.54-77.72:

Our Game of the Blingaweek gets relegated to last billing, though really there's almost nothing separating it from the Dave-Scott matchup. Rob won because he avoided any busts; his biggest underperformer, Tyler Lockett, still scored 5.20. D suffered through another disappointing week from T.Y. Hilton (3.87) and must regret playing the Dallas defense (-5.00).

Standings

  1. Pulley, 4-0, 470.49
  2. Richie, 4-0, 417.50
  3. Rob, 3-1, 519.51
  4. Pat, 3-1, 412.64
  5. Kevin, 2-2, 458.66
  6. Matt, 2-2, 430.73
  7. Scott, 2-2, 421.20
  8. Derrek, 2-2, 413.22
  9. Babel, 2-2, 407.80
  10. Rabbit, 1-3, 437.03
  11. Mike R., 1-3, 418.41
  12. Schertz, 1-3, 402.83
  13. Dave, 1-3, 347.54
  14. Ed, 0-4, 448.01

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Rob, 640
  2. Pulley, 630
  3. Kevin, 584
  4. Ed, 566
  5. Scott, 508
  6. Matt, 501
  7. Richie, 492
  8. Mike R., 491
  9. Rabbit, 480
  10. Derrek, 472
  11. Pat, 458
  12. Babel, 455
  13. Schertz, 442
  14. Dave, 281

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Rabbit's 148.92 is the second highest score of the year so far.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Scott's 77.17 barely edged out Derrek's 77.72 for this award.

Weekly MVP:

Joe Mixon scored 37.10 for Rabs.

Dud of the Week:

Brandin Cooks scored zero points in a close matchup for Ed.

Start of the Week:

Richie and Pat won close games, but neither made any choices that made a difference. No one gets this.

Misplay of the Week:

Babel left Tre'Quan Smith's 19.20 on his bench in favor of Myles Gaskin's 6.93. Ouch.

Ed could have played Greg Ward's 5.07 over Brandin Cooks's zero. Ouch.

Ed's choice would have been a bit bolder, so we'll give it to Babel, but these are two solid options.

Pickup of the Week:

Rabbit picked up Robert Tonyan, who scored 31.07... on his bench. He would have been better off sitting fellow pickup Randall Cobb, who scored only 4.80.

Blessed Cahoots:

For the second time this year, Kevin took a zero in a slot instead of making a change prior to kickoff. This week, the odd Monday night schedule led to some confusion that resulted in Davante Adams remaining in his lineup. In week 1, he just didn't play a kicker. He's 2-0 when he's done this so far, but I wouldn't want to keep pressing my luck if I were him.

Pryor Play of the Week:

Joe Mixon.

Week 5 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

DK Country (Richie, 4-0, 2nd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 2-2, 5th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 6-2.

It's hard to say how good Richie's team is right now. It's the first time he's been 4-0; the two previous times he's had this many expected wins (or close to it), he's been 1-3. His biggest uncertainty is how he'll handle Austin Ekeler's injury. RB was already Richie's weakness, and the solution of "His WRs will continue to be amazing" took a hit as Calvin Ridley (vs. CAR) was proven mortal this past week. But if Ridley bounces back, he, Tyreek Hill (vs. LV), and DK Metcalf (vs. MIN) form the strongest WR corps in the league.

Just like last year (see "Highest Standard Deviation"), Kevin's team is capable of anything. Josh Allen (@TEN) has been so good through four weeks that he doesn't feel like an unknown quantity any more, so really, the biggest question about Kevin's team is merely how consistent WRs not named Terry McLaurin (vs. LAR) will be. Jarvis Landry (vs. IND) and CeeDee Lamb (vs. NYG) have broken double digits just thrice in eight tries, and Davante Adams (bye) has only played one full game. Todd Gurley II (vs. CAR) has a high enough floor that Kev can afford to have some boom-or-bust WRs, but it also means it'll be hard to predict how the rest of his season will go.

Pick: DK Country.

Other Blingamatches

The Fantasy FB Team (Scott, 2-2, 7th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-1, 4th):

All-time series tied, 1-1.

Scott knows he has a top QB in Patrick Mahomes II (vs. LV) and two solid - if not quite top tier - RBs in Miles Sanders (@PIT) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. LV). But his WRs and TE have been far less reliable. JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. PHI) is his best, but after that he has some uninspiring options in Julian Edelman (vs. DEN), Darius Slayton (@DAL), John Brown (@TEN), and Hayden Hurst (vs. CAR).

Pat was initially stacked at RB, so he turned Chris Carson and a pair of now-injured guys (Nick Chubb and Julio Jones) into D.J. Chark, Jr. (@HOU), Kenny Golladay (bye), and Darrell Henderson, Jr. (@WAS). That's a solid core, so his key question is whether Matt Ryan (vs. CAR) or Justin Herbert (@NO) is going to give him enough at QB to make the playoffs. His 3-1 record puts him in uncharted territory, so we don't know how potential #PlayoffPat will manage his team.

Pick: The Fantasy FB Team.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 1-3, 13th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-0, 1st):

All-time series tied, 7-7.

Week 7, 2019: last place Dave upsets first place Pulley. This year, Dave's team isn't quite bad enough to be in last (by record, at least), but this would be an upset all the same. There's not much we don't know about Dave's team: Dak Prescott (vs. NYG) is crazy good; Melvin Gordon III (@NE) is decent; and, unfortunately for Dave, the rest of his roster is mediocre at best.

Meanwhile, Pulley is 4-0 for the second year in a row, though he's not quite as strong as he was last year. How will he fare without his Packers, Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones, who are on bye? They've been the key to his good start. Kenyan Drake (@NYJ) has a great matchup to pick up the slack at RB, and Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. IND) is coming off a monster game. It's looking less and less likely that Rob Gronkowski (@CHI) is going to be of much value, though he has to score a touchdown at some point, right?

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Bernie's Urgent Care (Mike R., 1-3, 11th) vs. Rub for Today (Rob, 3-1, 3rd):

Injuries have been brutal to Mike's team, hence its name change. Just when he gets George Kittle (vs. MIA) back, he loses Nick Chubb (IR) and probably Julio Jones (vs. CAR). Chris Carson (vs. MIN) is healthy, and Drew Brees (vs. LAC) looked like his old self last week, so Mike's not completely without strengths, but he's got an uphill battle to make a third consecutive playoff appearance.

Rob's team probably has the fewest serious concerns of any team; he is #1 in points and expected wins, after all. He might be a tad worried that Russell Wilson (vs. MIN) and James Robinson (@HOU) come down from their extreme heights so far, but their matchups suggest this week is not when that happens.

Pick: Rub for Today.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 2-2, 6th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 1-3, 10th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 10-6.

On paper, Matt's team looks to have no obvious holes. So why has it delivered two sub-100 weeks so far? Dalvin Cook (@SEA) has been awesome on a regular basis, but Matt's WRs - DeAndre Hopkins (@NYJ), Michael Gallup (vs. NYG), and Robert Woods (@WAS) - all underperformed last week, and his TE situation (Greg Olsen (vs. MIN)) is kind of shaky.

Rabbit is looking to build off his huge week 4, where he added nearly a full expected win to his total (from 1.08 to his current 1.92). The biggest uncertainty he faces is whether guys like Joe Mixon (@BAL) and Will Fuller V (vs. JAC) can have high enough floors to keep him competitive every week. Kyler Murray (@NYJ) is living up to his potential, but the likely lack of Chris Godwin (@CHI) again this week could be brutal for Rabbit's playoff chances.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

D's Nuts (Derrek, 2-2, 8th) vs. Keep Calm & Kerryon (Babel, 2-2, 9th):

Derrek leads all-time series, 7-6.

Is Derrek's team really Christian McCaffrey (IR) or bust? So far, it looks that way, though James Conner's (vs. PHI) unexpected bye week contributed to that. The bigger concern D has to have is if T.Y. Hilton (@CLE) is completely washed-up; the former start WR has 21.60 points total on the season, which is not what you want out of your second best WR.

Babel is also on a two-game skid, as his record has fallen in line with his peripherals. Outside of Travis Kelce (vs. LV), who's been steadily good (albeit without a huge game yet), Babel's team has not been consistent. Josh Jacobs (@KC) had a fantastic week one, but has been just OK since. Allen Robinson II (vs. TAM) and Keenan Allen (@NO) have each had one twenty-plus week and one sub-five week, which has kept Babel's ceiling lower than he'd like.

Pick: Keep Calm & Kerryon.

Live Commish (Ed, 0-4, 14th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 1-3, 12th):

Schertz leads all-time series, 7-1.

It took 160 Blingaweeks, but Ed is finally in last place. It must be time for him to look towards 2021, right? Even a team that's performed as well as his - he's fourth in points, expected wins, and all-play record - is a massive longshot to finish on a 7-2 run. But if any player can lead that charge, it's Alvin Kamara (vs. LAC), who's been unreal so far. And Mike Davis (@ATL) has been a fine replacement for Christian McCaffrey for the Panthers. But for everything to fall into place, D.J. Moore (@ATL) and Brandin Cooks (vs. JAC) will need to live up to their draft status... so it looks like the commissioner will miss the playoffs for the seventh straight year.

Schertz lost Saquon Barkley in week two and got hit hard by the Titans-Steelers postponement, but even if Derrick Henry (vs. BUF) and Jonnu Smith (vs. BUF) had played, he would have lost to Rabbit's Blangums performance. His WRs beyond Stefon Diggs (@TEN) are a mess - no one wants to play Curtis Samuel (@ATL) or Golden Tate (@DAL) - and if you can't out-WR Ed, you're in trouble.

Pick: Live Commish.

Closing Thoughts

Similarity scores are a bit of a frivolous thing and far from an exact science, but they are interesting to look at early in the season.

For a bit of background, similarity scores are based primarily on record and expected wins, with some small weight being given to strength of schedule, and can run from 0 to 1000. They are far from an exact science, but the recent changes I made to the algorithm make them seem accurate enough.

If we look at the most similar team to each of our 2020 teams so far, the average score is 971. Only 2010 (970) and 2015 (965) had a lower average.

In particular, two of the three lowest top scores of all time are from this year. Richie's most similar team is 2010 Derrek, with a similarity score of 893. Ed's most similar team is 2013 Babel, with a similarity score of just 848 - by far the lowest ever.