The Sanderson Gazette - 2020-10-21 - Birthday Blangums

"Math tells us that 100 is an important number in Blingaleague. KCAK's goal is to score 100 points. If we start approaching that mark, we decelerate for a soft landing. If we hit 100 on the nose, all will be right in the franchise. Math. Joe Mixon." - Babel

Keep Calm and Kerryon's strategy is solid; 100 points wins at roughly a 75% rate, even in more recent years when scoring is up.

This season through six weeks, 100 hasn't been as reliable (65%), but that could change as the season progresses. So far, the 2020 mean score is 104.22 and the median is 103.64.

EDITOR'S CORRECTION: This is some sloppy analysis, as Babel was talking about trying to hit 100 on the nose, while the percentages included above are for all scores 100 or greater.

If we instead look at all games between 98 and 102, the win rate is 49%. This is more in line with the 51.9% mark that expected wins would give a score of exactly 100.

If you look at just 2018-2020, when scores were higher on average, only 12 of 26 times (46%) has a score between 98 and 102 won.

So with a little more digging, Keep Calm and Kerryon's strategy is not all that sound, as it really just makes winning or losing the equivalent of a coin flip.

Week 6 Recap

Pulley def. Matt, 118.67-76.10:

Heading into Monday night, Pulley was actually projected to lose. But DeAndre Hopkins (9.73) and Michael Gallup (3.07) disappointed for Matt, while Kenyan Drake (28.40) and Christian Kirk (23.47) blew up for the birthday boy. Rob Gronkowski added a season high of 16.40 for the Pullman.

Derrek def. Pat, 117.52-105.43:

Philip Rivers (27.95) and the Steelers defense (18.00 points, bitches) led the way for D as he broke his three game losing streak. Pat also got 18.00 from his defense, Miami, and saw Ryan Tannehill explode for 31.20, but he fell short of victory and back to .500 on the year.

Schertz def. Mike R., 113.28-101.92:

Derrick Henry put up a whopping 40.13 and Deshaun Watson added 34.35 for Schertz as he won his second straight. Mike R. got 30.27 from Julio Jones and 20.53 from George Kittle in the losing effort.

Ed def. Scott, 113.09-98.96:

The commish finally got a victory as he put up his fourth highest score of the year. Ronald Jones II's 24.37 paced Ed, who also got good games from A.J. Brown (19.47) and the Giants defense (14.00). Patrick Mahomes II (22.35) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17.17) put up a valiant effort for Scott on Monday night, but the rest of his roster - highlighted by JuJu Smith-Schuster's 0.80 - couldn't quite do enough.

Rabbit def. Dave, 112.83-76.86:

Rabbit's Kyler Murray (30.30) and Will Fuller V (22.40) led all scorers in this one. Dave got 19.07 from Keelan Cole, and if you can believe it, outperformed Yahoo's projections with his total.

Babel def. Kevin, 91.29-76.60:

Babel got 18.67 from Travis Kelce and 17.58 from Cam Newton. That was enough to beat Kev, whose leading scorer was Josh Allen (16.40).

Rob def. Richie, 83.84-57.67:

This was the Game of the Blingaweek. Woof.

Standings

  1. Pulley, 6-0, 688.11
  2. Rob, 4-2, 694.57
  3. Richie, 4-2, 604.02
  4. Babel, 4-2, 593.37
  5. Kevin, 3-3, 668.55
  6. Schertz, 3-3, 653.35
  7. Scott, 3-3, 628.32
  8. Matt, 3-3, 606.83
  9. Derrek, 3-3, 603.49
  10. Pat, 3-3, 591.13
  11. Mike R., 2-4, 629.93
  12. Rabbit, 2-4, 626.63
  13. Ed, 1-5, 696.25
  14. Dave, 1-5, 470.30

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Ed, 646
  2. Pulley, 639
  3. Kevin, 573
  4. Schertz, 560
  5. Rob, 545
  6. Scott, 531
  7. Mike R., 529
  8. Richie, 483
  9. Rabbit, 472
  10. Derrek, 471
  11. Matt, 454
  12. Babel, 436
  13. Pat, 434
  14. Dave, 225

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Pulley snagged Team Blangums with 118.67. This is just the sixteenth sub-120 Blangums ever (and eighth since expansion in 2012).

Slapped Heartbeat:

Richie's 57.67 is the lowest non-Dave score of the year.

Weekly MVP:

Derrick Henry scored 40.13 for Schertz.

Dud of the Week:

The Titans defense scored -5.00 for Richie.

Start of the Week:

A lack of close games means this award stays vacant this week.

While the average margin of victory this week wasn't notable, the lowest margin of victory (11.36) is the fourteenth highest of all-time. Here is a list of the thirteen weeks without a closer game.

  1. Week 12, 2019, 20.25
  2. Week 5, 2011, 16.15
  3. Week 8, 2011, 15.62
  4. Week 10, 2013, 15.49
  5. Week 5, 2010, 14.71
  6. Week 2, 2016, 14.33
  7. Week 1, 2011, 14.21
  8. Week 1, 2014, 13.65
  9. Week 8, 2016, 13.30
  10. Week 12, 2017, 12.60
  11. Week 11, 2017, 12.44
  12. Week 4, 2014, 12.35
  13. Week 7, 2008, 11.87

Misplay of the Week:

Mike R. could have played fresh waiver pickup Travis Fulgham (16.00) Mike Evans (1.33) (though it would have been a bold choice). He lost by 11.36.

Pickup of the Week:

Some great options this week. Pat picked up Ryan Tannehill (31.20) and the Dolphins defense (18.00). Ed picked up the Giants defense (14.00). Babel picked up Tim Patrick (13.47). Derrek picked up Philip Rivers (27.95). Rob picked up Trey Burton (19.83). Kevin picked up the Cardinals defense (15.00).

Derrek put up the highest score of those teams and won by the closest margin. He'll get this award for week 6.

Blessed Cahoots:

Pulley's Blangums was made possible by a 69-yard Kenyan Drake touchdown as Arizona ran out the clock

Pryor Play of the Week:

Drake's a candidate here, but let's go with a different player on Pulley's team: Rob Gronkowksi.

Week 7 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Keep Calm & Kerryon (Babel, 4-2, 4th) vs. Rub for Today (Rob, 4-2, 2nd):

Rob leads all-time series, 8-6.

The Dickran Duel looked like it would be a lot more exciting after week 3. Both Babel and Rob were 2-1 and both were coming off their two highest scores of the season (and two Blangums, in Rob's case). Though they've each gone 2-1 since, their six scores since then have all been below average for 2020.

Babel's biggest advantage over just about every team he plays is Travis Kelce (@DEN) at TE. Through six weeks, Kelce has 26 points more than the #2 TE. After Kelce, Allen Robinson II (@LAR) and Keenan Allen (vs. JAC) have been good, but not great. Josh Jacobs (vs. TAM) has some big weeks, but also some small ones. And Cam Newton (vs. SF) and his flex options have been hard to trust. It's added up to a 4-2 record, and those banked wins are big, but without someone besides Kelce stepping up, I think Babel's more of a pretender than a contender moving forward.

One thing that's the same as three weeks ago is that Rob looks like he has a better team than Babel; he has 100 more points on the year, after all. Until this past week, you could have said Ezekiel Elliott (@WAS) is the ultimate high-floor RB1; he's got a good matchup this week to get back on track. Russell Wilson (@ARI) is a great QB, and James Robinson (@LAC) was a great free agent pickup. If Cooper Kupp (vs. CHI) and Tyler Lockett (@ARI) can pull out of the single-digit doldrums, Rob could very easily wind up with a bye - which means he's definitely a contender.

Pick: Rub for Today.

Other Blingamatches

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 3-3, 6th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 3-3, 5th):

Kevin leads all-time series, 5-4.

This matchup could turn into a QB shootout. In Schertz's corner: Deshaun Watson (vs. GB). In Kevin's: Josh Allen (@NYJ). Watson's been trending up and Allen's been trending down, so that's a point in Schertz's favor. Two other points in Schertz's favor: Stefon Diggs (@NYJ) is there to balance out Allen's scoring, and Derrick Henry (vs. PIT) has been a beast lately.

A trend in Kevin's favor? His scoring pattern on the year has been 120+, 120+, 70's, 120+, 120+, 70's - so you could say he's due for another big game. To deliver on that, Kev will likely need Davante Adams (@HOU) to return to form. Having Darren Waller (vs. TAM) back from his bye will help, too.

Right now, I'd label both of these teams as contenders, but they aren't without questions marks. A poor week 7 could change that judgement quickly.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-3, 8th) vs. The Fantasy FB Team (Scott, 3-3, 7th):

All-time series tied, 1-1.

Is it sacrilege to call Matt a pretender? He's failed to break 100 in four of six weeks, his best player (Dalvin Cook (bye)) is battling an injury, and his other 2019 stalwart, Lamar Jackson (bye), has been a disappointment (three weeks below 20 points). DeAndre Hopkins (vs. SEA) was a great first round pick, and Jerick McKinnon (@NE) is nice to have with Raheem Mostert injured, but this is not a classic Hammers roster.

Scott has a stronger QB situation; Patrick Mahomes II (@DEN) has broken 20 every week, cracking 30 thrice. While that sort of production gives him a chance every week, the rest of his roster makes his status a bit more precarious. Miles Sanders (vs. NYG) should miss this week, possibly more, though Scott mitigated that by picking up Boston Scott (vs. NYG) on waivers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@DEN) has been a high-floor RB, if not necessarily worthy of a top five pick, but the signing of Le'Veon Bell raises some questions about the Chiefs' RB usage moving forward. And JuJu Smith-Schuster's (@TEN) been a huge bust. Despite those negatives, I'll keep him as a contender, but just barely.

Pick: The Fantasy FB Team.

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-0, 1st) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-3, 10th):

Pulley leads all-time series, 10-1.

Pulley's joins 2012 Rabbit and 2018 Rob as just the third 6-0 team ever. And make no mistake: although both those squads lost their first playoff game, Pulley is very much a contender. He's coming off a Team Blangums performance despite Aarons Rodgers (@HOU) and Jones (@HOU) having disappointing weeks. A while he probably can't rely on Kenyan Drake (vs. SEA) and Rob Gronkowski (@LV) to reproduce their most recent scores weekly, it's hard to imagine him missing out on a bye and a free trip to the semifinals.

Pat's team has shown some promise, but hasn't consistently delivered. Matt Ryan (vs. DET) and Ryan Tannehill (vs. PIT) both put up 30 points in week 6, but Pat is currently slated to start Jake Herbert (vs. JAC) over both. Kenny Golladay (@ATL) has been consistently good since his return from injury, and David Montgomery (@LAR) has been a much better in fantasy than in real life. I'd feel a lot better about his team if Chase Edmonds (vs. SEA) had been the Arizona RB that blew up this past Monday. As it is, he'll get the pretender label, just like every other year.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Bernie's Urgent Care (Mike R., 2-4, 11th) vs. DK Country (Richie, 4-2, 3rd):

All-time series tied, 4-4.

At first glance, Mike looks like he's had a boatload of tough luck; he's scored over 100 points five times, but has only two wins to show for it. A closer look shows that only three of those weeks were above the 2020 average (median (103.64) or mean (104.22), take your pick), so he hasn't been that unlucky. Chris Carson (@ARI) is back from his bye, George Kittle (@NE) is great, and Julio Jones (vs. DET) showed he still has plenty in the tank last week. Bernie's move is to finish stronger than he starts - only the last two champs, Derrek and Schertz, have more wins from weeks 7-13 the past two seasons - so I'll predict that Mike Evans (@LV) will start living up to his draft cost and that Mike R. is a contender.

Richie's 4-2, though like Babel, it's a historically weak 4-2. And he's just had his heartbeat slapped, so it's easy to dismiss him as a pretender. But DK Metcalf (@ARI) was on bye last week, and Tyreek Hill (@DEN) had, by far, his worst week of the season, so I still see Richie as a contender - especially if he can manage a .500 from now until Austin Ekeler returns from IR.

Pick: Bernie's Urgent Care.

Live Commish (Ed, 1-5, 13th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 2-4, 12th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 10-5.

Ed finally got a win, and with Alvin Kamara (vs. CAR) on bye. A.J. Brown's (vs. PIT) been great since his return in week 5, and Ronald Jones II (@LV) has made the most of having the Tampa Bay backfield to himself. It's tempting to label Ed a contender, since he does have the most points and expected wins through six weeks (more on that anomaly later), but realistically he'll need to finish on a 6-1 run... so I'll keep him as a pretender for now, albeit one that every contender on his schedule will not be eager to face.

Rabbit's 2-4 record is closer to his real team quality, as he has two weeks above the season average. Kyler Murray (vs. SEA) and Will Fuller V (vs. GB) have been solid all year (with just one bad week, courtesy of Fuller). Joe Mixon (vs. CLE) and Amari Cooper (@WAS) have shown their highs can win games (and Team Blangums), but Rabs will stay a pretender unless they start producing consistently and Chris Godwin (@LV) returns to his 2019 form.

Pick: Live Commish.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 1-5, 14th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-3, 9th):

Derrek leads all-time series, 8-4.

Dave has the second fewest expected wins and the fifth fewest points ever through six weeks. He gets Michael Thomas (vs. CAR) back this week, but he is 100% a pretender this year.

Derrek is a harder call. He's sandwiched three bad weeks between three quite good ones. James Conner (@TEN) has delivered as expected, and Robby Anderson (@NO) been a very pleasant surprise. I'm going to call Dash and Two Dots a contender, because Christian McCaffrey's return from IR does not appear to be far off. But if he can't beat Dave's shambling team this week, even without Adam Thielen and Jonathan Taylor (both on bye), that'll change.

Pick: D's Nuts.

Closing Thoughts

I hope you all don't think it's whining when I write about the weird season my own team is having, because I actually find it quite amusing. We've never had a team score this many points and be below .500, let alone 1-5. Here are the points leaders after six weeks through Blingaleague history.

Expected wins tell a similar story; only 2016 Rabbit had as many expected wins and a sub-.500 record. Here are the expected wins leaders through six weeks.

Looking at the league as a whole, the correlation between place and rank in total points through six weeks is weaker than any previous season by a good amount.