The Sanderson Gazette - 2020-10-28 - Masquerade

Week 7 Recap

Mike R. def. Richie, 97.20-93.72:

"Richie, how did our three SNF players combine for ~10 points? In a 71-point game!" - Mike R.

When the dust settled on Monday night, D.K. Metcalf (3.07) and Greg Olsen (2.40) hadn't scored enough for Richie to overcome Chris Carson (4.33) and Mike. Both teams had one surprising point explosion: Tom Brady (40.55) for Richie and the Washington defense (19.00) for Mike.

Pulley def. Pat, 95.55-81.10:

Like Mike, Pulley also had to hold off a late comeback attempt; on Monday night, David Montgomery (7.60), Jimmy Graham (4.13), and Darrell Henderson, Jr. (8.13) couldn't score enough for Pat. Pulley was led by Aaron Rodgers's 30.15 and Christian Kirk's 16.93 and overcame Odell Beckham, Jr.'s injury-induced zero.

Rob def. Babel, 165.13-71.80:

Rob put up his second 160+ game of the year behind Tyler Lockett (44.67), Russell Wilson (32.80), and James Robinson (28.30). Meanwhile, Cam Newton's 0.30 for Babel made him an easy pick for Redboner this year.

Rabbit def. Ed, 128.94-110.71:

Another week, another tough loss for Ed. Rabbit was led by Kyler Murray (40.70), the Chiefs defense (24.00), and Chris Godwin (17.73), all of whom had their highest scores of the season. Ed got great WR games from A.J. Brown (26.40) and D.J. Moore (24.40), but Hunter Henry's 3.07 and Mike Davis's 4.40 were enough to keep him below Rabs.

Kevin def. Schertz, 116.71-96.05:

Davante Adams (38.13) blew up for Kevin, and Todd Gurley II's (20.83) accidental touchdown also helped him earn a big win vs. our defending champ. Schertz saw Deshaun Watson put up 25.75, but also had Stefon Diggs (6.40), Jonnu Smith (1.20), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0.90) come in well below expectations.

Scott def. Matt, 106.74-78.01:

Scott charged to victory despite a subpar game from Patrick Mahomes II (12.50). It was Boston Scott (16.73) and Tee Higgins (16.17) leading the way for Mr. Beitzel, who moved back into playoff position. Matt suffered through a zero from Michael Gallup and worse from Jerick McKinnon (-0.10); that's why, even though he had its two highest scorers (Jared Goff (18.55) and DeAndre Hopkins (17.73)), he was never really competitive in this matchup.

Derrek def. Dave, 79.49-65.33:

Derrek got nothing - not even a single target - from pickups Darren Fells and Dontrelle Inman. It didn't matter, since he played Dave. Other notable scores in this game were Diontae Johnson's 22.67 for D and Chase Claypool's -0.27 for Dave.

Standings

  1. Pulley, 7-0, 783.66
  2. Rob, 5-2, 859.70
  3. Kevin, 4-3, 785.26
  4. Scott, 4-3, 735.06
  5. Richie, 4-3, 697.74
  6. Derrek, 4-3, 682.98
  7. Babel, 4-3, 665.17
  8. Rabbit, 3-4, 755.57
  9. Schertz, 3-4, 749.40
  10. Mike R., 3-4, 727.13
  11. Matt, 3-4, 684.84
  12. Pat, 3-4, 672.23
  13. Ed, 1-6, 806.96
  14. Dave, 1-6, 535.63

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Ed, 658
  2. Pulley, 618
  3. Rob, 606
  4. Kevin, 606
  5. Schertz, 550
  6. Scott, 549
  7. Rabbit, 531
  8. Mike R., 525
  9. Richie, 477
  10. Derrek, 440
  11. Matt, 423
  12. Pat, 410
  13. Babel, 399
  14. Dave, 206

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Rob's 165.13 means he now has the two highest scores of the season. He is also just the fifth team to have three Blangums in the first seven weeks, and the first to not be named "Pulley" or "Mike R.".

Slapped Heartbeat:

Dave's 65.33 means he now has three of the four lowest scores of the season. He is also just the fourth team to have three Slapped Heartbeats in the first seven weeks.

Weekly MVP:

Tyler Lockett's 44.67 was huge for Rob.

Dud of the Week:

Cam Newton Redboned his way to 0.30 for Babel.

Start of the Week:

Mike R. chose to stick with the Washington defense and got 19.00 in return.

Misplay of the Week:

Richie could have played Joshua Kelley (6.10) over Devonta Freeman (0.80) and netted 5.30 points in a 3.48 point loss.

Pat could have played Justin Herbert (41.15) over Matt Ryan (19.90) and netted 20.25 points in a 14.45 point loss.

Pickup of the Week:

Dave picked up Richard Rodgers and was rewarded with 11.33 points, a small bright spot amidst his awful week.

Blessed Cahoots:

Derrek's lucky he played Dave, because he picked up three players this week (Darren Fells, Dontrelle Inman, and Damiere Byrd) who combined for 2.13 points. His 79.49 is the lowest winning score of the year so far.

Pryor Play of the Week:

This one's a bit of a stretch, perhaps. Chris Godwin put up 17.73, his highest score of the year, for Rabbit. His disappointment has been more from missing weeks due to injury though... and he will now miss week 8.

Week 8 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Live Commish (Ed, 1-6, 13th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-0, 1st):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-5.

Ed's record and place mask just how good his team really is. His 4.61 expected wins lead the league, and only fourteen teams have had more points than his 806.96 at this point in the season (to really hammer this point home, twelve teams have more wins this year). Alvin Kamara (@CHI) has a tough matchup and might not live up to his status as #1 non-QB scorer this year, but A.J. Brown (@CIN) and D.J. Moore (vs. ATL) have both been playing like WR1s lately.

At stake for Ed is the last bit of hope he has for returning to the postseason. While six-win teams have made the playoffs before, it's rare. So although he'll likely have the tiebreaker advantage should he finish 6-7, he really has no room for error any more.

Pulley's 7-0 record masks the fact that he can barely field a starting roster as of right now. Tampa Bay's recent signing of Antonio Brown means that stashing him will pay off... next week, when he's back from suspension. Aaron Jones (vs. MIN) will likely be back this week, but Odell Beckham, Jr. is now out for the season and Emmanuel Sanders (@CHI) is probably going to stay on the COVID-19 list. This all means that Pulley's somehow an underdog to the team twelve places behind him in the standings.

The playoff stakes aren't high for Pulley; he's going to be playing past week 13. But he has a chance to make history by becoming the first 8-0 team in Blingaleague history with a win.

Ed has more points on the season and is projected for more in week 8, but this is Pulley and, maybe more importantly, 2020 Ed. We all know how this will play out: Ed will score 118 points, but opposing fill-ins like Hunter Renfrow (@CLE) and Rashard Higgins (vs. LV) will combine for 35 and Pulley will eke out a victory.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Other Blingamatches

D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-3, 6th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-3, 3rd):

Derrek leads all-time series, 10-4.

D's good record masks his team's tendency to put up some real stinkers; only Dave has more sub-80 weeks this year. But that masks that Derrek's future outlook is a lot brighter, as Christian McCaffrey (vs. ATL) might be back this week. James Conner (@BAL) and Jonathan Taylor (@DET) have been solid RBs, and should stay that way, and the Vikings' poor season has meant that there have been plenty of opportunities for Adam Thielen (@GB).

Kevin's record also masks some really poor scores (two sub-80 games), though he has four games higher than D's top mark. Davante Adams (vs. MIN) is a pretty good representative for Kev's team; in the four games he's played, he's broken 30 twice and scored less than 10 twice. Josh Allen (vs. NE), Darren Waller (@CLE), and Todd Gurley II (@CAR) have all been among the most reliable performers at their positions, which has meant Kevin has been able to survive the games where Adams doesn't give him much.

This matchup very well could have been the Game of the Blingaweek, just like the last three times these two have met, but it's not because the stakes aren't especially high. A loss to fall to 4-4 isn't devastating to either of these teams, so they'll have to settle for being the top undercard game.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Keep Calm & Kerryon (Babel, 4-3, 7th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 3-4, 9th):

Schertz leads alll-time series, 6-2.

Schertz's team basically is what it is. The difference between him having 3 wins and 4 wins basically comes down to his week 1 score (103.72), which is almost exactly the 2020 median score (103.37). Derrick Henry (@CIN) and Kareem Hunt (vs. LV) are one of the top RB duos this year and keep Schertz competitive every game. But he'll be without Deshaun Watson (bye) for week 8, which hurts his chances of moving back to .500. And falling to 3-5 would almost guarantee Schertz becomes the first Sanderson Cup holder since his week 8 opponent (in 2015) to miss the playoffs.

Babel's above .500, but his record masks that he's only broken 100 twice on the year. By expected wins (2.79) and all-play record (28-63), he's only better than Dave; those are also worse figures than when he started 0-7 in 2013. But Babel's been a strong finisher, historically; if he equals his 4-2 finish from 2013, he'll comfortably make the playoffs at 8-5 thanks to wins that are already banked. Carson Wentz (vs. DAL) has been a pretty good fantasy QB, and he and Travis Kelce (vs. NYJ) have great matchups this week. Babel doesn't have high stakes in terms of playoff odds - falling to 4-4 still leaves him a lot of room to go on a run - but a triple-digit performance here would go a long way to showing everyone else that he means business.

Pick: Keep Calm & Kerryon.

Bernie's Urgent Care (Mike R., 3-4, 10th) vs. The Fantasy FB Team (Scott, 4-3, 4th):

All-time series tied, 1-1.

Injuries have masked Mike's team's ceiling, so his fortunate win this week was huge for his playoff chances. But, of course, Chris Carson (vs. SF) and Phillip Lindsay (vs. LAC) got hurt and might miss week 8. Julio Jones (@CAR) and DeVante Parker (vs. LAR) seem more likely to be on the available side of the ledger, though, and George Kittle (@SEA) and Mike Evans (@NYG) have some good matchups.

Scott's team has been living up to its potential in aggregate, but that masks some player-to-player uncertainty. Patrick Mahomes II (vs. NYJ) is coming off a rare down game, but still inspires confidence. Miles Sanders (vs. DAL) should be fine if he's healthy. But Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. NYJ) still has Le'Veon Bell looming, and while JuJu Smith-Schuster (@BAL) bounced back last week, he still barely broke into double digits.

Mike needs a win badly. Scott can get by with a loss, but given the way his Blingaleague career has gone to this point, he won't feel comfortable without a win.

Pick: The Fantasy FB Team.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-4, 11th) vs. DK Country (Richie, 4-3, 5th):

Richie leads all-time series, 5-4.

Matt's record masks a roster we thought would be much stronger than this. Lamar Jackson (vs. PIT) has been the easiest to point to when it comes to disappointing players on the Hammers, but Michael Gallup (@PHI) has just one double digit game and Robert Woods (@MIA) has been unreliable. Dalvin Cook (@GB) returning this week would be a huge boon for Matt.

Richie's 4-0 record was masking a team that wasn't quite that good, so you can think of his current three game skid like that scene at the end of the first Mission: Impossible movie. Tom Brady (@NYG) has been trending up, though, and Tyreek Hill (vs. NYJ), Calvin Ridley (@CAR), and D.K. Metcalf (vs. SF) are still the best WR corps in the league. If Richie could just get something from Joshua Kelley (@DEN) at RB this week, he could feel confident about turning his season around and going on a playoff run.

If Matt loses, he'll slide into irrelevance for the rest of the year. If Richie loses, his team might collapse under the weight of its losing streak.

Pick: DK Country.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 3-4, 8th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-4, 12th):

Rabbit leads all-time series 11-3.

Rabbit's point total masks his overall quality a little, as it's driven by a couple outlier high scores (including the top non-Rob score of the year. But his team is miles better than it looked after three weeks, as he's pulled above .500 in expected wins (3.72) and all-play record (46-45). Losing Chris Godwin to his third different injury of the year hurts, but Rabs nabbed Scotty Miller (@NYG) off waivers to fill in this week. Other good news: Joe Mixon (vs. TEN) might be back, and the Kansas City defense (vs. NYJ) has another horrible opponent. Some bad news: team MVP Kyler Murray is on bye.

Pat's the opposite; his lack of notable badness masks that his team is still pretty weak. Kenny Golladay (vs. IND) is a bright spot, but guys like David Montgomery (vs. NO) and Marquise Brown (vs. PIT) have been regularly mediocre. The wildcard for Pat is Le'Veon Bell (vs. NYJ) taking on his former team. If Bell can get enough touches in a crowded Chiefs backfield, he could be the spark Mr. Gawne needs to turn his season around.

The stakes here are the same for both Rabs and Pat: win, or see their playoff chances die.

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 1-6, 14th) vs. Rub for Today (Rob, 5-2, 2nd):

Dave leads all-time series, 8-7.

Dave's epic failure of a season has been masking some odd transactions. A classic Fultzyboys miscommunication led to an injured Mike Thomas (@CHI) starting in week 8. And, in case you missed it, he used a waiver claim on out-for-the-season Dak Prescott today.

Rob's near-record point total is masking a team that is very capable of laying an egg. Rob has three Team Blangums, but his other four weeks top out at 103.54, barely higher than the season median of 103.37. Ezekiel Elliott (@PHI) has been below average lately, but Russell Wilson (vs. SF), Tyler Lockett (vs. SF), and James Robinson (bye) have been making up for that. Without Robinson, Rob's team isn't quite so imposing, but it should still be enough to beat Dave.

There aren't really any stakes here. Rob's likely to stay in second place even with a loss, and Dave has no shot at the playoffs.

Pick: Rub for Today.

Closing Thoughts

Rob pointed out that Ed (+42.9%) and Schertz (+39.2%) have the two toughest schedules ever through seven weeks. Strength of schedule is really just expected wins against (compared to .500), so I decided to look at the teams that had the most combined expected wins - for and against - through seven weeks.

Unsurprisingly, Ed is near the top of that list; his 9.61 (4.61 for, 5.00 against) ranks second. But the top team there is a bit of a surprise: 2010 Dave had 5.45 expected wins and 4.57 expected wins against (+30.7% SOS) for 10.02 total. Dave even had a week of 63.68 in there, which just shows that 2010 was a very different time.