The Sanderson Gazette - 2020-11-25 - The Needs of the Many

Week 11 Recap

Matt def. Rob, 117.67-113.78:

"Ed, look what you've done, you've just goaded the monster heel and now I'm in sixth place." - Rob

The Heel Ordeal came down to two Rams receivers on Monday night, and after Robert Woods (22.93) outscored Cooper Kupp (19.33), Matt was in second place. For Matt, Dalvin Cook added 21.50 and Dallas Goedert added 16.27. For Rob, Ezekiel Elliott added 17.77 and Russell Wilson added 20.55, and he took a very tough loss.

Derrek def. Schertz, 128.93-107.06:

"D's All-Viking play is working out." - Babel

Babel's analysis is pretty accurate: Adam Thielen (28.40), Kirk Cousins (25.10), and Justin Jefferson (17.47) all had great games. The Steelers defense put up 17.00 for D (a full-season pace of 204 points, bitches), as well. Schertz wasted a monster game from Deshaun Watson (34.80) and a very good game from Derrick Henry (19.17).

Babel def. Pulley, 134.51-90.25:

Babel's team blew up behind Keenan Allen (23.33), Travis Kelce (23.13), and Cam Newton (21.85). Pulley got 24.35 from Aaron Rodgers, but no one else cracked fifteen points, extending his losing streak to four games.

Scott def. Kevin, 82.90-76.86:

This game looked good on paper, but wound up being a huge dud. Patrick Mahomes II (25.00) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (19.97) did put up great scores for Scott, but Hayden Hurst scored zero and JuJu Smith-Schuster put up only 2.53. Scott still won, because Kevin got just 6.90 from Matthew Stafford, 3.00 from Todd Gurley II, and 2.13 from Jamison Crowder.

Richie def. Rabbit, 105.21-84.85:

Richie ended his six game skid on the shoulders of Tyreek Hill (19.40) and Mark Andrews (18.80). Rabs got 21.45 from Kyler Murray, but like Pulley, had no other fifteen point scorers and now finds himself in dire playoff shape.

Dave def. Ed, 103.41-98.35:

Dave formally eliminated Ed with a fairly well-balanced outing. Derek Carr (24.35) was his leading scorer, while Michael Thomas and Chase Claypool each scored 13.87. Ed got a big game from D.J. Moore (19.03), but Joe Burrow's injury kept him at 13.35 and Ronald Jones II (2.40) put up a huge dud on Monday night.

Mike R. def. Pat, 86.13-80.84:

Just Herbert (29.90) continued his great rookie season for Pat, but it wasn't enough to scrape out a victory. Mike got 22.00 from the Cleveland defense, which was enough to win this low-scoring affair.

Standings

  1. Kevin, 7-4, 1,195.31
  2. Matt, 7-4, 1,163.22
  3. Pulley, 7-4, 1,126.20
  4. Babel, 7-4, 1,122.68
  5. Scott, 7-4, 1,098.01
  6. Rob, 6-5, 1,239.75
  7. Derrek, 6-5, 1,088.67
  8. Schertz, 5-6, 1,182.64
  9. Rabbit, 5-6, 1,085.80
  10. Mike R., 5-6, 1,070.85
  11. Richie, 5-6, 1,062.20
  12. Pat, 4-7, 982.29
  13. Ed, 3-8, 1,164.24 (e)
  14. Dave, 3-8, 863.41 (e)

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Schertz, 607
  2. Kevin, 591
  3. Rob, 582
  4. Ed, 578
  5. Matt, 571
  6. Pulley, 529
  7. Babel, 527
  8. Scott, 513
  9. Derrek, 508
  10. Mike R., 476
  11. Richie, 468
  12. Rabbit, 454
  13. Pat, 351
  14. Dave, 245

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Babel's team broke through in a big way with 134.51.

Slapped Heartbeat:

After scoring 76.86, Kevin now has two Slapped Heartbeats to go with his two Team Blangums awards.

Weekly MVP:

Travis Kelce's been great all year, and scored 23.13 for Babel this week.

Dud of the Week:

Rob lost a close game, and the Patriots defense (-1.00) dipped into the negative.

Start of the Week:

Matt plugged in Dallas Goedert (16.27) over Jared Cook (0.80) and really needed those points.

Misplay of the Week:

Ed played Ronald Jones II (2.40) over Michael Pittman, Jr. (14.80) and Nelson Agholor (17.73) and lost by 5.06.

Pickup of the Week:

Dave grabbed the Broncos defense and was rewarded with 12.00 points.

Playoff Scenarios

Kevin clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Rob loss OR a Derrek loss).

Matt clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Rob loss OR a Derrek loss).

Pulley clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Rob loss OR a Derrek loss).

Babel clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND (a Rob loss OR a Derrek loss).

Scott clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

(Dave and Ed have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Week 12 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-5, 7th) vs. The Fantasy FB Team (Scott, 7-4, 5th):

Derrek leads all-time series, 2-0.

Scott called this a play-in game, and he's right from his perspective. He is in the playoffs with a win, and he will fall behind D if he loses by 10 or more this week. So Scott has one straightforward need: to win. A less straightforward path to playoffs is for Rob to keep losing and for all of Schertz, Rabbit, Mike R., and Richie to lose at least once each. Should Scott go 0-2 from here on out, there's a chance he could be passed by his rival, Richie, in the standings.

A single win doesn't finalize anything for Derrek. In fact, two wins might not even do it. While a win by an average margin in week 12 should put him ahead of Scott and into 6th place, Scott could easily pass him in week 13 if they both win or lose. But also, just one win could be enough, if some others lose. On the other hand, a loss along with a win by Rob effectively eliminates D from the postseason for the first time since 2016.

For this week's matchup, Thanksgiving could be key. Scott has Brandin Cooks (@DET) and the Houston defense (@DET). Derrek has all his Steelers (vs. BAL). The matchups there favor Scott.

Pick: The Fantasy FB Team.

Other Blingamatches

Keep Calm & Kerryon (Babel, 7-4, 4th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 5-6, 9th):

Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-6.

Babel probably doesn't need to win any more games, as long as he puts up respectable point totals in the final two weeks. The only team outside playoff position right now that isn't at least 34 points behind Babel is Schertz (who's roughly 60 points ahead). So Babel would really only miss the playoffs if he goes 0-2, Rob wins at least one game, and either Derrek or Schertz win out.

Rabbit needs a lot more help. One more loss means he can't get above six wins, and there are already seven teams at that level. And six of them either have seven wins or are more than 150 points up on Rabbit. So Rabs needs, at a bare minimum, to win his final two games. He also would need Rob to lose at least once, Scott to lose twice, or one of Pulley or Babel to lose twice and have two bad scores.

Yahoo favors Babel by a lot this week, with Keenan Allen (@BUF), Travis Kelce (@TAM), and Josh Jacobs (@ATL) projected to lead his team. Rabbit has Kyler Murray (@NE) has his top projected player, but his injured shoulder is a little bit concerning.

Pick: Keep Calm & Kerryon.

DK Country (Richie, 5-6, 11th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-4, 3rd):

Pulley leads all-time series, 7-2.

Richie needs even more help than Rabbit, as he has 23 fewer points. So all those things listed above that Rabs needs? Mentally add a 23-point level of difficulty to them.

Pulley is more like Babel, in that he's got a good shot at staying in playoff position even with two losses. But really, he just needs a win to break his four game losing streak.

These two guys were a combined 8-0 at one point, but are collectively just 4-10 since. Pulley was active on the waiver wire to grab Gus Edwards (@PIT) and the Green Bay defense (vs. CHI); the latter could be critical, since Aaron Rodgers (vs. CHI) and Aaron Jones (vs. CHI) historically struggle (relatively) against the Bears. Richie will hope D.K. Metcalf (@PHI) breaks out of his mini slump and that Tyreek Hill (@TAM) stays red hot.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Rub for Today (Rob, 6-5, 6th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 4-7, 12th):

Rob leads all-time series, 9-2.

Rob needs at least one win, which I did not think I'd be saying three weeks ago. But he's lost three straight, and despite being more than 40 points ahead of the next highest scoring team, he finds himself at risk of missing the playoffs completely. If Rob doesn't get at least one win, then he'll need Derrek to lose twice, Rabbit to lose this week (since he'll beat D in week 13 in this scenario), and Schertz, Mike R. and Richie to all lose at least once. So, yeah, Rob really needs a win. Of course, if he does win and Derrek loses, it would be very tough for him to miss the playoffs.

Pat can technically make the playoffs, here's what he needs:

  • Two wins;
  • Rob to lose twice and to make up 238 points;
  • Derrek to lose twice and to make up 107 points;
  • Schertz to lose twice, or lose once and to make up 201 points;
  • Mike R. to lose twice, or lose once and to make up 89 points;
  • Richie to lose twice, or lose once and to make up 80 points.

I don't think #playoffpat is going to happen this year.

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. WAS) might be out of his post-Dak stupor for Rob. Pat has Justin Herbert (@BUF) on board for 2021.

Pick: Rub for Today.

Bernie's Urgent Care (Mike R., 5-6, 10th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 7-4, 1st):

Mike R. leads all-time series, 7-6.

I'm not going to repeat the Rabbit and Richie sections here, so just replace their names with "Mike" and you'll understand his needs.

Kevin, in first place, is in the best shape of all the 7-4 teams. Though he technically also needs a Derrek loss to clinch, just getting his own win should be enough, with his 107 point cushion over D. And even with two losses, he should be able to sneak in.

Josh Allen (vs. LAC) is back for Kev, which means he should rebound from his Slapped Heartbeat nicely. It looks like Raheem Mostert (@LAR) will be back for Mike, but with that matchup, it's probably too little, and with his record, it's probably too late.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

Live Commish (Ed, 3-8, 13th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-4, 2nd):

Ed leads all-time series, 8-7.

Ed can't make the playoffs, so let's look at his (surprising) history vs. Matt. Ed made the playoffs every year from 2008 to 2013, but was just 3-6 vs. Matt in that span, including two semifinals losses. (Matt did win three championships in that span, so just about everyone had a losing record against him.) Since then, Ed has not made the playoffs at all, but is 6-1 vs. the Monster Heel, including a big week 12 upset last year.

Matt is very much like Kevin right now. A win should lock up his playoff berth (if not mathematically), so he just needs one win. Two wins, however, would nab him a bye for the second straight year.

Matt has Dalvin Cook (vs. CAR). Ed has Alvin Kamara (@DEN). Matt is our Monster Heel, Ed is just a monster in week 12 (especially vs. Matt).

Pick: Live Commish.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 3-8, 14th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-6, 8th):

All-time series tied, 4-4.

Dave can't make the playoffs, so let's celebrate that his two game winning streak has resulted in him no longer being the worst team ever by expected wins!

Schertz leads the league in all-play record (94-49) and expected wins (6.67), but he's below .500 and needs help to make the playoffs. Two wins only guarantees him a spot if Rob or Pulley loses this week (since one will hand the other a loss next week). He can also get in with two wins and two losses by any of the 7-4 teams along with one loss by Derrek. He probably can't get in with just one win, since Rob already has six wins and a 58 point cushion. So Schertz needs two wins and help.

He plays Dave this week, though, so that's a good start.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Closing Thoughts

Week 11's 100.77 point mean score was a nice bounce back from a five week run of sub-100 averages. Let's keep that up through the end of the year!