The Sanderson Gazette - 2021-12-15 - Conner Country

"We both know even a pie to the face wouldn't delay me from my argument." - Rob

Week 14 Recap

Richie def. Scott, 153.83-82.43

Richie had this one locked up before Monday night, so even though Tyler Higbee put a COVID-caused zero, he could breathe easy. He would have been fine, though, because James Conner (27.63) and Matt Prater (16.00) both had huge games to end the week. Josh Allen added 36.80 and the Titans defense added 24.00.

Scott was led by Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 16.37.

Matt def. Mike R., 136.08-118.37

Once again, Matt had his rival's number. Dalvin Cook (34.77) led the way with his Thursday night performance, making Lamar Jackson's (0.85) early exit survivable. The Chiefs defense (24.00) and Mark Andrews (21.33) also had big games for Matt.

Mike was led by his likely keepers, Ja'Marr Chase (22.87) and Javonte Williams (20.63), and took a very tough loss.

Dave def. Kevin, 128.74-88.51

A pair of Packers - Davante Adams (28.13) and Aaron Jones (19.50) - allowed Dave to make the playoffs without much drama despite his recent struggles. Cooper Kupp scored 22.40 in a revenge game of sorts for Kevin, but it wasn't enough to pull the upset.

Babel def. Ed, 117.25-105.85

"In my blackout, I seemingly picked up a gentleman named Peoples-Jones because I thought it was multiple players." - Babel

Babel's injury-depleted team continued its mastery over Ed behind Melvin Gordon III (23.10), Najee Harris (22.73), and, yes, Donovan Peoples-Jones (12.00). Ed got 26.55 from Taysom Hill and 19.83 from Leonard Fournette, but once Matthew Stafford (24.85) outdueled DeAndre Hopkins (7.20) on Monday night, Babel's victory was cemented.

Derrek def. Rabbit, 111.82-78.94

Derrek didn't win his fourth consecutive Blangums, but he did win convincingly. Patrick Mahomes II (21.40) was his high scorer, but it really was a balanced effort. Rabs laid an egg, but still made the playoffs; only Tyler Lockett (26.93) broken the 20 point barrier for Pralines & Dick.

Schertz def. Pat, 109.38-98.94

The Tom Brady (32.75) / Mike Evans (18.13) combo pushed Schertz to victory, although he didn't get enough other help to make the playoffs. Pat saw Justin Herbert score 26.65 and the Dallas defense put up 22.00 in the loss.

Pulley def. Rob, 105.71-64.05

Aaron Rodgers (31.55) and George Kittle (26.13) were huge for Pulley as he won the Clash of Hatred.

Standings

  1. Derrek, 12-2, 1,611.85 (b)
  2. Matt, 11-3, 1,465.11 (b)
  3. Babel, 10-4, 1,568.78 (x)
  4. Dave, 10-4, 1,414.07 (x)
  5. Richie, 9-5, 1,628.09 (x)
  6. Rabbit, 9-5, 1,479.48 (x)
  7. Schertz, 9-5, 1,425.29
  8. Ed, 6-8, 1,437.94
  9. Kevin, 5-9, 1,352.35
  10. Pulley, 5-9, 1,329.35
  11. Mike R., 4-10, 1,353.79
  12. Pat, 3-11, 1,382.83
  13. Scott, 3-11, 1,048.50
  14. Rob, 2-12, 1,190.83

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Derrek, 711
  2. Richie, 685
  3. Babel, 661
  4. Ed, 554
  5. Rabbit, 539
  6. Schertz, 524
  7. Matt, 521
  8. Dave, 513
  9. Pat, 477
  10. Mike R., 466
  11. Pulley, 440
  12. Kevin, 439
  13. Rob, 303
  14. Scott, 167

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Richie thundered into the playoffs, nabbed the total points crown, and earned his third Blangums of the year with a score of 153.83.

Slapped Heartbeat

Rob's worst season ever (more on that below) ends on a low point of 64.05.

Weekly MVP

Josh Allen scored 36.80 for Richie.

Dud of the Week

The Lions defense scored -6.00 for Rob.

Start of the Week

Babel went with Melvin Gordon III, who scored 23.10, over DeSean Jackson, who scored 2.53. Babel won by less than twelve points.

Misplay of the Week

Ed would have won if he'd played A.J. Green (13.60) over Terry McLaurin (zero), but that's mainly due to McLaurin getting injured in the first half of his game (and would have been a pretty wild move to make in advance).

Pickup of the Week

Richie picked up the Tennessee defense and its 24.00 points.

D'Ernest D'oh

Dave dropped the Tennessee defense as they were about to face Jacksonville. Had he kept them in his lineup, he'd have won Blangums, not Richie.

Season Postmortems

Rob, 2-12 (0.143), 1,190.83 points, 14th, 4.24 expected wins

Previous issues of the Gazette have focused on how bad Scott's season has been (and will once again do so in just a moment), but Rob also had a horrible 2021. He became the second team to lose twelve games and cracked the bottom ten in expected winning percentage. Rob only broke the 100 point threshold three times, and two of those were by less than a point. No matter how you look at it, 2021 was the worst season in Rob's franchise history.

Antonio Gibson's midseason swoon was a big reason why Rob is in the cellar, but his late season surge does make him a fairly attractive keeper. Rob also acquired Jaylen Waddle and Michael Pittman, Jr. in trades to give himself some hope for 2022.

Scott, 3-11 (0.214), 1,048.50 points, 13th, 2.33 expected wins

The Top Seasons page is littered with 2021 Scott, and not in a good way. His expected winning percentage was .167, and the previous low was .220 (2020 Dave). His all-play winning percentage was .143, and the previous low was .207 (also 2020 Dave). He had six Slapped Heartbeats, tying 2018 Pat for the most ever. At least he broke 100 once!

Deebo Samuel was a great acquisition for 2022, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have good value in the late second round, where we assume Scott will wind up picking.

Pat, 3-11 (0.214), 1,382.83 points, 12th, 6.68 expected wins

It's tempting to look at Pat's record and place in the standings and think, "Oh, another typical Pat season." That wouldn't really be true, though, as he got a bit unlucky this year. In weeks four and five, he lost games that he had an 86% and 66% chance of winning, respectively, and he wasn't able to squeeze out any wins in which he failed to break 100. It's not that Pat should have been a contender, but 3-11 absolutely underrates his team.

There are a lot of ways Pat could go with keepers. Eli Mitchell and Elijah Moore are both young and already look good. CeeDee Lamb was acquired in a midseason trade. And Pat rostered Michael Thomas all year, so he can't be overlooked, either.

Mike R., 4-10 (0.286), 1,353.79 points, 11th, 6.52 expected wins

Mike's season isn't far off from Pat's (in fact, they each handed the other a tough loss in the first four weeks). The Bullies lost three games in which they scored 108 or more (though they did nab a win with 83 points in week 12).

Ja'Marr Chase and Javonte Williams look like a very strong keepers heading into 2022.

Pulley, 5-9 (0.357), 1,329.35 points, 10th, 6.16 expected wins

Pulley's eight year run of making the playoffs ended this year, though he did avoid losing double digit games for the first time ever. He was a little unlucky, as he lost three of his eight 100-point games, but his expected win total is lower than Pat's and Mike's because of what he did when he wasn't breaking 100. Weirdly, Pulley never scored between 86 and 100 points in 2021. It also marked the second straight year he didn't make a trade!

Joe Mixon was fantastic all season for Pulley, so it wouldn't be shocking to see him kept in 2022, even for a high cost. Pulley also stashed Travis Etienne and Deshaun Watson all year after drafting them late.

Kevin, 5-9 (0.357), 1,352.35 points, 9th, 6.15 expected wins

No team was worse than Kevin in the second half of the year. It's not just that he ended the year on a seven game losing streak, it's that his high score was 102.26 in that span and he failed to break 90 in five of the weeks. And yet, like Pulley, he probably deserved one more win. At least he got to take part in a three-way!

That three-way trade netted Kevin Cooper Kupp, who you have to figure is one of his keepers. Kevin also picked up Cam Akers at some point, looking ahead to 2022.

Ed, 6-8 (0.429), 1,437.94 points, 8th, 7.76 expected wins

Ed, as usual, won fewer games than he should have. He scored 105 or more and lost four times, but at least did get a 92 point win in week 2, and had a four game stretch from weeks 7-10 in which he lost three games (and won one) by single digits.

Leonard Fournette, an afterthought in a week 2 trade with Matt, looks like Ed's best keeper for 2022. He also traded for Terry McLaurin, Kyle Pitts, Damien Harris, and Brandon Aiyuk to give himself options.

Schertz, 9-5 (0.643), 1,425.29 points, 7th, 7.34 expected wins

Schertz was unlucky in one big way: he became the first team to miss the playoffs with eight or more wins. He also had one tough loss, in week 8 when he scored 104 against the Blangums winner. But it's hard to feel too bad for Schertz, as he won a sub-90 game in week 13 a week after putting up the lowest score of the season.

Schertz won't be able to keep Derrick Henry again, which means he doesn't have any obvious choices on his roster. Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Tom Brady all had very good seasons, so it's possible Schertz could pull the trigger on one of them.

Draft Lottery Odds

The odds of getting the first overall pick in 2022 are:

  • Rob: 18.89%
  • Scott: 17.83%
  • Pat: 15.41%
  • Mike R.: 13.53%
  • Pulley: 11.61%
  • Kevin: 11.45%
  • Ed: 8.73%
  • Schertz: 2.55%

Quarterfinals Preview

#4 Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 10-4) vs. #5 DK Country (Richie, 9-5)

Richie leads all-time series, 6-4.

Dave and Richie were both super active traders this year, and the terms "arms race" and "super team" were thrown out more than once in the Blingachat in reference to them. And yet, they both had to sweat out their playoff berths through week 14.

Yahoo loves Dave's overhauled roster. Kyler Murray (@DET), Tyreek Hill (@LAC), Davante Adams (@BAL), Alvin Kamara (@TAM), and Travis Kelce (@LAC) are among the highest projected players at their positions. Richie has the stars to match Dave, but his top three - Josh Allen (vs. CAR), Austin Ekeler (vs. KC), and James Conner (@DET) - are all questionable at the moment.

These two teams put up 282.57 points between them last week and have never scored below 122.31 individually in the quarterfinals. I have high expectations for this matchup.

Pick: Super Bash Bros.

#3 Swift Justice (Babel, 10-4) vs. #6 Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 9-5)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 9-7.

After three weeks, it sure looked like Babel and Rabbit would be facing off in the Blingabowl, not the quarterfinals. They were in first and second place, respectively, with a combined 6-0 record and 4.83 expected wins.

Babel managed a big win last week despite a slew of injuries, and while he's not totally out of the woods, he does get Keenan Allen (vs. KC) back. He'll look for Nick Chubb (vs. LV) to bounce back after two disappointing weeks. Rabbit might be without Darrell Henderson, Jr. (vs. SEA), who's currently on the COVID-19 list, but he picked up DeVante Parker (vs. NYJ) and has a great QB matchup (Dak Prescott (@NYG)).

Pick: Swift Justice.

Closing Thoughts

Week 14 just missed the top 20 highest scoring weeks.