The Sanderson Gazette - 2022-11-23 - Tears
Six weeks ago, The Gazette grouped teams into tiers based on their performance. The top tier was Ed, Matt, Rob, Schertz, and Scott. The middle tier was Dave, Derrek, Kevin, and Rabbit. And the bottom tier was Babel, Mike R., Pat, Pulley, and Richie.
Now, 3/5 of that top tier find themselves under .500, and the other 2/5 failed to break 80 points. Two of the bottom tier teams are over .500. Let's just say that wasn't The Gazette's finest analysis.
Week 11 Recap
Kevin def. Matt, 95.99-92.40
Matt seemed comfortably ahead of Kevin heading into Monday night thanks to Jalen Hurts (24.60) and the Washington defense (21.00). But his 34-point was erased by four combined touchdowns from George Kittle (23.20) and Brandon Aiyuk (14.67) for Kevin, resulting in a huge swing in playoff chances for both sides.
Richie def. Babel, 118.00-115.27
"My kicker had a 6 point FG. All is good in Babelville."- Babel
Richie's own Monday night comeback didn't have as many playoff implications - as we'll get to later, it didn't even technically eliminate Babel - but it was nearly as exciting. James Conner's 11.80 were enough to give Richie the lead, which was in sight because of Amari Cooper (27.07) and Evan McPherson (18.30). Babel had a huge wasted performance from his own kicker, Brett Maher (23.00) and also saw Joshua Palmer (26.13) have a monster game.
Rabbit def. Mike R., 104.43-79.62
Our final Monday night comeback seemed preordained, especially after Rondale Moore (-0.60) left early with an injury for Mike. For Rabbit, Jimmy Garoppolo (27.70), Christian McCaffrey (12.83), and Trey McBride (1.87) did more than enough to pull him to 6-5 on the year. So did Tony Pollard (34.53).
Dave def. Scott, 149.79-75.73
Keepers Travis Kelce (33.33), Davante Adams (30.80), and the Patriots defense (19.00) powered our defending champ to an easy victory. Scott got 17.30 from Deebo Samuel on Monday night to avoid getting his heartbeat slapped.
Schertz def. Derrek, 132.12-106.77
Schertz saw Tyler Bass add his own 26.00 to the great kicker scores this week, and also got 24.40 from Jamaal Williams and 19.90 from David Montgomery. Derrek was the only team to enter the week with a winning record to put up a respectable score, in large part due to Patrick Mahomes II's 30.25.
Pulley def. Ed, 90.88-74.24
The Ravens defense (19.00) led the way for Pulley in this dud-filled game. Only Tee Higgins (19.73) outperformed expectations for Ed, whose biggest disappointment had to be Josh Allen (13.55).
Pat def. Rob, 89.84-73.88
This matchup was even duddier than the one immediately above it. Chris Olave (19.60) led Pat to a big upset, while Rob got just four points combined from Tyler Conklin (2.00), Mike Williams (2.00), and Kadarius Toney (zero) to lose his third straight.
Trades
Trade between Ed and Richie
Ed received:
- Diontae Johnson - from Richie - keeper cost: 3rd
Richie received:
- Jaylen Warren - from Ed - keeper cost: 9th
Richie traded a not-so-great WR for a medium-value keeper in preparation for next year. Ed just needed to upgrade one of his flex slots for this week.
This goes down as another trade that Ed didn't lose, as Johnson (2.90), despite a very poor game, did outscore Warren (1.20).
Trade between Mike R. and Scott
Mike R. received:
- Dalton Schultz - from Scott - keeper cost: 4th
Scott received:
- Rachaad While - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 9th
Mike needed a playable TE with Darren Waller on IR and Evan Engram on bye, so Scott took on White, who has some potential for this year and more for next.
White was on bye, so he wouldn't have helped Mike this week. Schultz still barely did, with 2.93 points. This doesn't look like a good trade for Mike, but it also didn't directly cost him a win.
Standings
- Rob, 7-4, 1,155.86
- Dave, 6-5, 1,191.96
- Scott, 6-5, 1,178.01
- Derrek, 6-5, 1,175.96
- Rabbit, 6-5, 1,075.18
- Kevin, 6-5, 1,070.91
- Mike R., 6-5, 1,035.88
- Pulley, 6-5, 962.81
- Schertz, 5-6, 1,231.08
- Ed, 5-6, 1,128.27
- Matt, 5-6, 1,098.96
- Richie, 5-6, 1,006.32
- Pat, 5-6, 951.07
- Babel, 3-8, 964.56
Blingalytics Ratings
- Dave, 636
- Schertz, 635
- Rob, 615
- Derrek, 607
- Scott, 593
- Ed, 544
- Matt, 504
- Rabbit, 495
- Kevin, 495
- Mike R., 437
- Richie, 403
- Babel, 359
- Pulley, 346
- Pat, 329
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums
Dave's 149.79 got him his second Team Blangums of the year.
Slapped Heartbeat
Rob has gone from 7-1 to a 73.88-point Slapped Heartbeat in just three weeks.
Weekly MVP
Let's give this to Schertz's kicker Tyler Bass, whose 26.00 might very well be the best kicker score in Blingaleague history.
(Rob Bironas - RIP in Peace - once kicked eight field goals in a game, but that came before official Blingaleague history began. By pre-2022 scoring, Bironas's game would have been worth 29.00 points; this year, it would be worth 27.70, as five of his field goals were from less than 30 yards.)
Dud of the Week
Josh Allen's 13.55 for Ed doesn't look that bad, but it was more than eleven points less than his projection and more than five points worse than his previous low for the year.
Start of the Week
Richie played Darnell Mooney (9.87) over Garrett Wilson (1.60) and came away with a victory because of it.
Misplay of the Week
Matt left George Pickens (17.07) on his bench in favor of Tyler Boyd (5.60); Brian Robinson, Jr. (5.70); and Melvin Gordon III (8.30). He lost by 3.59.
Pickup of the Week
Richie grabbed Evan McPherson as a free agent and got 18.30 points in his close win.
Blessed Cahoots
Kevin got -0.25 from his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, and zero from Isaiah McKenzie and still wound up winning.
Pryor Play of the Week
Najee Harris's 24.47 for Babel more than doubled his previous high score on the year.
Playoff Scenarios
No one can clinch a playoff berth this week, though Babel can be formally eliminated. He technically is not yet; of the more than two million distinct outcomes we can have with 21 games to play, both he and the sixth place team finish with six wins in three of them.
In nearly 70% of those two-million-plus outcomes, the sixth place team finishes 7-7. That means that, even with a loss this week, everyone but Babel can still win out and make the playoffs.
Week 12 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
Mostly Three Digit FC (Scott, 6-5, 3rd) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 6-5, 4th)
Derrek leads all-time series, 4-0.
- Scott still plays: Rob, Richie
- Derrek still plays: Pulley, Rabbit
Scott could really use his first ever win against Derrek this week. Despite being in second or third place from week 5 on, his grip on the playoffs feels tenuous. He's just 2-3 in his last five games, and has scored below 100 in all three of those losses. Reasons for hope: Kyler Murray (vs. LAC) might be back from a two-week absence this week, and Deebo Samuel (vs. NO) just put up his highest score since week 4.
Derrek, on the other hand, is rounding into form like he does about this time every year. Patrick Mahomes II (vs. LAR) and Justin Jefferson (vs. NE) are among the very best at their positions, and DeAndre Hopkins (vs. LAC) has returned from his suspension on a tear. Jonathan Taylor (vs. PIT) might not return to his 2021 levels, but it looks like he's at least back to being a reliable RB.
Pick: D's Nuts.
Other Blingamatches
The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-5, 6th) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-5, 7th)
Mike R. leads all-time series, 8-7.
- Kevin still plays: Ed, Dave
- Mike R. still plays: Babel, Matt
Kevin's team is hard to figure. He hasn't had the extreme results as some others - coughRabbitcough - had earlier this year, but he's been capable of just about anything. Joe Mixon (@TEN) and George Kittle (vs. NO) are his best examples of this (though Mixon might not play due to a concussion). DeVonta Smith (vs. GB) looks like he's settled into a consistent level of production, though, and Kevin can't possibly have as bad a QB week as he just did, whether Kirk Cousins (vs. NE) or Trevor Lawrence (vs. BAL) is tabbed to start.
Mike was a bit fortunate to be 6-4, so a loss taking him out of playoff position isn't surprising. He just added Tee Higgins (@TEN) and Keenan Allen (@ARI) to bolster his weak WR corps and give Derrick Henry (vs. CIN) an improved supporting cast. If Tom Brady's (@CLE) Munich performance two weeks ago is a sign of him turning it around, Mike might not need good fortune to get back into playoff position.
Pick: Bernie's Bullies.
schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-6, 9th) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 5-6, 10th)
Schertz leads all-time series, 8-3.
- Schertz still plays: Dave, Pat
- Ed still plays: Kevin, Babel
As noted above, a 7-7 team will likely make the playoffs, so this isn't really an elimination game for either of these two (especially given their strong point totals). But it will put the loser in a position of needing to win out.
Schertz will likely go back to Lamar Jackson (@JAC) this week, as Justin Fields (@NYJ) is dealing with a shoulder injury. Jamaal Williams (vs. BUF) has been great, even with D'Andre Swift healthy, but faces a tough defense. On the opposite side of that, though, is Stefon Diggs (@DET) with a great matchup.
Ed is still competitive, but his most recent trade looked a little toward next year in the form of Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAR). Josh Allen (@DET) has the same great matchup Stefon Diggs has, so he could neutralize Schertz there, and Christian Kirk (vs. BAL) and Mike Evans (@CLE) are back from their byes. A repeat of week 1 would be a big step in turning the commissioner's season around.
Pick: schertzopotamus.
Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-5, 8th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-6, 11th)
Pulley leads all-time series, 8-7.
- Pulley still plays: Derrek, Rob
- Matt still plays: Rabbit, Mike R.
Pulley's four game winning streak has put him on the edge of playoff position, but his low point total - 13th overall - is keeping him out at the moment. Aaron Rodgers (@PHI) and his two Packers WRs, Allen Lazard (@PHI) and Christian Watson (@PHI), have a tough matchup this week, which could be a problem. So does Alvin Kamara (@SF). It may fall to Travis Etienne, Jr. (vs. BAL) to solidify Pulley's postseason chances.
Matt looked like one of the teams to beat through week 7, but since then he's failed to break 100 and has dropped three of four. Jalen Hurts (vs. GB) has avoided duds, giving Matt a reliable floor, and with Ken Walker III (vs. LV) and Mark Andrews (@JAC) back from bye and injury, respectively, his team looks about as good as it can for the stretch run. He should be concerned about Saquon Barkley's (@DAL) matchup this week, though.
Pick: Harrison Hammers.
Rob for Today (Rob, 7-4, 1st) vs. DK Country (Richie, 5-6, 12th)
Richie leads all-time series, 6-5.
- Rob still plays: Scott, Pulley
- Richie still plays: Pat, Scott
Just three weeks ago, Rob looked like a historically great team. Now, while missing the playoffs seems unlikely, the bye that seemed nearly inevitable could slip from his grasp. Nick Chubb (vs. TAM) and Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. PIT) scored exactly 21.00 and 20.00 points over the past three weeks, respectively (though it should be noted that Chubb had his bye in that span). Terry McLaurin (vs. ATL) is usually good, rarely great. Jaylen Waddle (vs. HOU) will have to come out of his bye week with a big game for Rob's confidence to return to previous levels.
Richie can make the playoffs, but he'll probably need to win out, as his point total - 11th overall - will likely cause him to lose any tiebreakers at 7-7. Tua Tagovailoa (vs. HOU) is also back from bye and could mitigate a big Waddle game, and Austin Ekeler (@ARI) - always a threat to blow up - will face an opponent that appears to have given up. Amari Cooper (vs. TAM) has sneakily been a WR1 this year; can he help Richie hand Rob a fourth straight defeat?
Pick: DK Country.
Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 6-5, 2nd) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-6, 13th)
Dave leads all-time series, 8-5.
- Dave still plays: Schertz, Kevin
- Pat still plays: Richie, Schertz
Dave might once again be the team to beat. A couple trades have effectively replaced Isiah Pacheco with Dalvin Cook (vs. NE), which is a definite upgrade. And Davante Adams (@SEA) and A.J. Brown (vs. GB) are both capable of winning weeks on their own. Oh, and don't forget Travis Kelce (vs. LAR)...
This is just the fourth time in Pat's history he's had five or more wins at this point. He's last overall in points, though, so the playoffs will definitely require winning out. That said, he's shown he can beat contenders this year, with wins against Rob, Scott, and Rabbit. And Ja'Marr Chase (@TEN) - acquired for his keeper value - might even be back this week!
Pick: Super Ba- wait, let's hear from Babel again.
"#playoffpat is the most uplifting Blingatrend since the existence of Kevin." - Babel
I can't pick against that! #playoffpat it is!
Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 6-5, 5th) vs. Swift Justice (Babel, 3-8, 14th)
Rabbit leads all-time series, 10-7.
- Rabbit still plays: Matt, Derrek
- Babel still plays: Mike R., Ed
Rabbit's last two games have been remarkably average for his 2022 season, with expected win percentages of 51% and 61%, respectively. Part of that is Christian McCaffrey (vs. NO) being part of a timeshare now; will that mean he just consistently puts up 10-15 points instead of 30-spots? Tyreek Hill (vs. HOU) is still capable of the highest highs, and has a juicy matchup this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. BUF) and Gabriel Davis (@DET) face off in the first game of the week; if that's a shootout, this one might be over before anyone carves a turkey.
Babel showed in week 11 that he is capable of scoring enough to beat anyone, even if he didn't actually win. Joshua Palmer (@ARI) has been an excellent pickup, and Najee Harris (@IND) looks like he's back to his bellcow status. It's a tall order to beat Rabs, but it's not out of the question.
Pick: Pralines & Dick.
Closing Thoughts
The cluster of teams should lead to a wild finish. Good luck everyone!