The Sanderson Gazette - 2022-11-30 - Pushed over by Pittman

"Literally any of three teams could be in first tomorrow. And there are three minutes left in the week." - Rob

Week 12 Recap

Rob def. Richie, 106.99-105.49

"Michael Pittman, who I always believed in and never once compared to C.J. Spiller, really came through." - Rob

Rob considers this revenge for the (in?)famous "Bent over by Beckham" game, and I think that makes sense. It looked like Richie had this in hand going into Monday night, as Garrett Wilson (24.57) and James Conner (18.67) delivered big games. But Rob got 12.00 from the Steelers defense and 14.13 from Michael Pittman, Jr., putting an end to his losing streak and remaining in first place. Nick Chubb also added 19.73 for the victor.

Derrek def. Scott, 115.08-114.94

Had Rob not made his comeback, the winner of this one would have been in first based on the total points tiebreaker. And boy, was it a wild one. Scott was led by Kyler Murray (26.65), Ezekiel Elliott (15.60), and CeeDee Lamb (15.23), with four other players in double figures. But the Colts defense (3.00) was thoroughly mediocre on Monday night, leaving the door open for Derrek - who pulled ahead on Jonathan Taylor's (16.20) last run of the night. D was led by Justin Jefferson (25.08) and Patrick Mahomes II (21.60), as usual.

This is not the worst beat Scott has taken against Derrek; back in week 8, 2018, he lost not just his game, but Team Blangums, by just 0.10 points.

Rabbit def. Babel, 81.07-77.09

It looked like we'd have a third Monday night comeback after Najee Harris (10.03) scored a touchdown for Babel. But the Steelers RB left shortly after with an injury, giving Rabbit a fortunate win. Rabs was led by Amon-Ra St. Brown's 22.97 points.

Pat def. Dave, 116.45-100.14

#PlayoffPat lives! Josh Jacobs (44.77) had a ridiculous game for the underdog, directly leading to victory. (Graham Gano (12.40) and the Panthers defense (13.00) also helped.) Dave got 29.50 from Justin Herbert, but Travis Kelce (13.60) and A.J. Brown (10.13) didn't live up to expectations, and he took a relatively tough loss.

Schertz def. Ed, 131.31-107.95

Ed had the two highest scorers in this one, Josh Allen (30.95) and Miles Sanders (28.57), but Schertz still ran away with it. Mike's balanced roster put up a fantastic week; his lowest score was 9.87 from David Njoku, and only Lamar Jackson (25.10) broke the twenty-point barrier.

Mike R. def. Kevin, 123.02-80.16

Mike bullied his way to a win behind new addition Tee Higgins (21.20), Dalton Schultz (16.13), and Tom Brady (19.00). Only Trevor Lawrence (26.15) and Rhamondre Stevenson (13.73) scored more than ten points for Kev.

Matt def. Pulley, 109.21-73.47

Jalen Hurts (30.35) and Ken Walker III (16.33) were their usual selves for the Hammers, who won easily. Pulley got matching 20.67-point games from Chris Godwin and Christian Watson, but saw no one else crack double figures.

Trades

Trade between Dave and Ed

Dave received:

  • Tee Higgins - from Ed - ineligible to be kept

Ed received:

  • Cole Kmet - from Dave - keeper cost: 9th
  • Isiah Pacheco - from Dave - keeper cost: 9th

For the second time this year, Dave and Ed exchanged a young WR1 for a Kansas City RB. The former was looking to load up for the playoffs, while the latter was looking to build toward next year without totally punting this one.

In true Ed fashion, Higgins outscored Pacheco and Kmet combined (though it didn't affect Ed's matchup this week). But Higgins wasn't on Dave's roster any more...

Trade between Dave and Mike R.

Dave received:

  • Dalvin Cook - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 1st
  • Drake London - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 7th

Mike R. received:

  • Tee Higgins - from Dave - ineligible to be kept
  • Keenan Allen - from Dave - keeper cost: 2nd

Dave turned around and flipped Higgins and another WR for a stud RB and a potential keeper, while Mike looked to upgrade his set of WRs from awful to strong.

It worked out in Mike's favor so far, as Higgins and Allen put up nearly 35 points between them, while Cook barely scored 6.

Standings

  1. Rob, 8-4, 1,262.85
  2. Derrek, 7-5, 1,291.04
  3. Mike R., 7-5, 1,158.90
  4. Rabbit, 7-5, 1,156.25
  5. Schertz, 6-6, 1,362.39
  6. Scott, 6-6, 1,292.95
  7. Dave, 6-6, 1,292.10
  8. Matt, 6-6, 1,208.17
  9. Kevin, 6-6, 1,151.07
  10. Pat, 6-6, 1,067.52
  11. Pulley, 6-6, 1,036.28
  12. Ed, 5-7, 1,236.22
  13. Richie, 5-7, 1,111.81
  14. Babel, 3-9, 1,041.65 (e)

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Schertz, 653
  2. Dave, 620
  3. Derrek, 615
  4. Rob, 613
  5. Scott, 602
  6. Ed, 548
  7. Matt, 513
  8. Mike R., 467
  9. Rabbit, 466
  10. Kevin, 465
  11. Richie, 415
  12. Pat, 362
  13. Babel, 338
  14. Pulley, 322

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Schertz took home his second Team Blangums of 2022 with 131.31 points.

Slapped Heartbeat

Pulley scored 73.47 and had his heartbeat slapped for the first time in over six years!

Weekly MVP

Josh Jacobs's 44.77 is singlehandedly responsible for the #playoffpat hashtag trending once again.

Dud of the Week

The Bears defense scored -2.00 in a game Richie lost by 1.50.

Start of the Week

The winners of our three closest games (Derrek, Rob, and Rabbit) all left points on the bench, so we'll leave this award vacant.

Misplay of the Week

You could give this to Richie for playing the Bears defense (-2.00) over --empty--, but we'll give it to his rival, instead. Scott played the Colts defense (3.00) over the Bills (10.00) and lost by 0.14.

Pickup of the Week

Rob used a waiver claim on the Steelers defense and got 12.00 points out of it, more or less needing every single one.

Blessed Cahoots

Not only did Rabbit win with a score that is only good for victory 22% of the time, he barely held on due to Najee Harris leaving the Monday night game with an injury.

Pryor Play of the Week

Dave lost, but Justin Herbert (29.50) put up more than twenty points for the first time since week 4.

Playoff Scenarios

Rob clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Matt loss AND a Kevin loss AND a Pat loss AND a Pulley loss.

Rob clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Mike R. loss.

Derrek clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND losses by three of Scott, Matt, Kevin, and Pat.

Mike R. clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND losses by four of Scott, Matt, Kevin, Pat, and Pulley.

Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND losses by three of Scott, Kevin, Pat, and Pulley.

(Babel has been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Rob's situation is simple; if he wins his ninth game this week, he's in the playoffs. He could also clinch a bye if he wins and Mike R. loses, because Derrek and Rabbit play each other in week 14, ensuring that only one other team can reach nine wins.

If Rob loses, let's look at what happens with 8-5 teams.

Having eight wins can lead to clinching a playoff berth if enough 6-6 teams lose, guaranteeing only six teams total can reach eight wins. For that to happen, five of the seven current 6-6 teams would need to lose (or tie).

Schertz, who's 6-6, plays Dave, who's 6-6, so that covers one of the necessary losses. That means that each of our victorious 7-5 teams - and Rob, should he lose - will need four other 6-6 teams to lose.

Rob plays Scott, who's 6-6, so if he loses, that eliminates one of the options. He'd then need all four of Matt, Kevin, Pat, and Pulley to lose.

Derrek plays Pulley, who's 6-6, so if he wins, that covers one of the four. He'd then need three of Scott, Matt, Kevin, and Pat to lose.

Mike R. plays Babel, who's 3-9, so he'd still need four of Scott, Matt, Kevin, Pat, and Pulley to lose.

Rabbit plays Matt, who's 6-6, so if he wins, that covers one of the four. He'd then need three of Scott, Kevin, Pat, and Pulley to lose.

From an elimination perspective, both Ed and Richie would be eliminated if they lose, but it appears that all the current 6-6 teams will be alive for the playoffs next week no matter what.

Week 13 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Rob for Today (Rob, 8-4, 1st) vs. Mostly Three Digit FC (Scott, 6-6, 6th):

Rob leads all-time series, 4-1.

Rob might not have a playoff berth clinched at this time next week, but he should still feel good about his chances. Barring a total collapse, his current point total should keep him ahead of enough potential 7-7 teams to get him into the playoffs with a tiebreaker. But he really should be hoping for a bye, given he's been in first place since week 5!

Scott is on a lot shakier ground thanks to his loss in week 12. He does control his own fate, essentially, since his point total is so high. He probably gets in with just one win, too, so he can remove a lot of his stress by evening up the season series with Rob this week.

A Chiefs-Bengals shootout will help Rob, since that means Joe Burrow (vs. KC) should score a lot. Nick Chubb (@HOU) should run all over the Texans, so just getting a good game out of one of Jaylen Waddle (@SF) or Michael Pittman, Jr. (@DAL) should put Rob in great position to win. On the other side, Kenny Pickett (@ATL) is not the ideal QB to run out with your season mostly on the line, but CeeDee Lamb (vs. IND) and Ezekiel Elliott (vs. IND) both have a nice matchup. This one is a very tough call.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Other Blingamatches

D's Nuts (Derrek, 7-5, 2nd) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-6, 11th)

Pulley leads all-time series, 10-8.

Derrek's sprung up into bye position after spending the first half of the season living on the edge of the playoffs. His point total - effectively tied with Scott and Dave - should give him confidence that he'll be playing past week 14 no matter what happens this week.

Well, maybe. Based on how this year has gone for Pulley, if D loses, he'll have put up a bad score. Remember how, for a while, Rabbit's opponent didn't matter? Pulley's the opposite. He's 6-0 when his opponent scores less than 85 points, and 0-6 when they do. That doesn't bode well against Derrek, who's on a six-game 100-point streak.

Both of these teams are 4-1 in the second half of the season, but in different ways; D has scored 570.83 points in that span (third most), while Pulley has scored just 454.22 (third least). This week, Patrick Mahomes II (@CIN) and Justin Jefferson (vs. NYJ) - two of Derrek's big four - and should produce just fine. But Jonathan Taylor (@DAL) has a tough matchup and DeAndre Hopkins is on bye. And look at who's ready to fill in for the injured Aaron Rodgers (@CHI) for Pulley: Deshaun Watson (@HOU)! Will that be enough to pull a big upset?

Pick: D's Nuts.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 7-5, 3rd) vs. Swift Justice (Babel, 3-9, 14th)

Mike R. leads all-time series, 10-7.

Mike has slowly been pulling his peripherals up to match his record, and he's a worthy playoff team as of now. He turned an injured Ja'Marr Chase and a frustrating Drake London into Tee Higgins (vs. KC) and Keenan Allen (@LV) over the past few weeks; combined with Derrick Henry (vs. IND), his team looks pretty good on paper.

Babel's playing out the string, virtually assured of finishing in last. Dameon Pierce (vs. CLE) has fallen off recently, but looks like a good keeper, and Dak Prescott (vs. IND) and DK Metcalf (@LA) at least give him a fighting chance to pull a couple of upsets.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 7-5, 4th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 6-6, 8th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 11-7.

Rabbit's team was mediocre for a little while there, but returned to an extreme result last week. His point total - and Derrek looming large next week - mean that he could really use a win this week to feel confident about a second straight playoff appearance.

Meanwhile, would you have guessed that Matt has scored the fewest points (439.22) in the second half of the season? He's still very much alive for a playoff berth, but that swoon means he can't anticipate winning many tiebreakers if he finishes 7-7.

A shootout in San Francisco would be great for Rabbit, who has Tyreek Hill (@SF) and the suddenly-not-amazing Christian McCaffrey (vs. MIA). He's also throwing out a stack of Jared Goff (vs. JAC) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. JAC). It looks like another boom-or-bust week for Rabs. Matt, as always, is reliant on Jalen Hurts (vs. TEN) putting up a high score and one or two of Saquon Barkley (vs. WAS), Ken Walker III (@LAR), and Mark Andrews (vs. DEN) blowing up.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 6-6, 5th) vs. Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 6-6, 7th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 6-4.

Schertz has won three straight on the heels of his five-game losing streak, taking a commanding overall points lead in the process. That means that just one win probably locks him into the playoffs.

Dave finds himself in the next tier of point scorers, basically tied with Derrek and Scott for second. That probably means he'll just need one win to make the playoffs, but it also means that he might be going up against Schertz for that spot, and he's unlikely to win that tiebreaker.

Lamar Jackson (vs. DEN) rallied to have a strong game last week for Schertz, but his matchup isn't ideal this week. Stefon Diggs (@NE) is pretty matchup-proof, though, and Aaron Jones (@GB) should feast on the Bears' weak defense. Justin Herbert (@LV) and Davante Adams (vs. LAC) are up against each other for Dave, who could really use Dalvin Cook (vs. NYJ) to be worth what he paid to get him.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-6, 9th) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 5-7, 12th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 9-8.

Kevin and Ed are more or less in the same position: needing to win out to make the playoffs. For Kev, it's because his point total wouldn't be likely to overcome other 7-7 teams. For Ed, it's because his mostly likely would.

Trevor Lawrence (@DET) has a great matchup for Kevin, but his outcome might again come down to George Kittle (vs. MIA) and Brandon Aiyuk (vs. MIA) having concurrent big games. For Ed, Josh Allen (@NE) and Miles Sanders (vs. TEN) finally delivered, Isiah Pacheco (@CIN) looks like a good acquisition, and Christian Kirk (@DET) has the same favorable matchup as Trevor Lawrence.

Pick: Live Commish.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 6-6, 10th) vs. DK Country (Richie, 5-7, 13th)

Pat leads all-time series, 7-3.

Pat may have the strength of a hashtag behind him, but he still has an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Like Kevin, winning out is a necessity... and Schertz is his week 14 opponent. Richie winning out means that two current 6-6 teams take another loss, so he can still have some hope, but his point total will likely lose him any tiebreakers. (Though he is surprisingly fourth in points in the second half of the season.)

Josh Jacobs (vs. LAC) just had a monster game for Pat and gets a juicy matchup. Ja'Marr Chase (vs. KC) looks like he'll play. Even though Tua Tagovailoa (@SF) gives Richie a big edge at QB, it looks like #playoffpat will keep trending...

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Closing Thoughts

The standings this year are remarkably tight; the standard deviations of wins is just 1.13, blowing away the 1.38 mark we had with two games left in 2011. However, this is the fourth time in the past five years - joining 2018, 2019, and 2020 - that all six playoff berths were open with two weeks left in the season.