The Sanderson Gazette - 2022-12-07 - It's Complicated

"I twice kept a QB only to draft another in the first or second round. There really aren't questions why I set the Slapped Heartbeat record." - Pat

Week 13 Recap

Mike R. def. Babel, 89.05-85.83

"Wait WHAT"

"WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED"

"Brady you magnificent shitbag" - Mike R., shortly after the Monday night game finished

What happened was that Tom Brady (19.45) threw two late touchdowns to lead Mike (and the Buccaneers) to a dramatic and improbable come-from-behind win that shouldn't have been so close in the first place.

The comeback was needed because, while Keenan Allen (17.73) and Zonovan Knight (12.73) had good games for the Bullies, Derrick Henry (4.07) and Jeff Wilson, Jr. (0.30) had awful ones. Meanwhile, Babel got 22.93 from DK Metcalf and 10.23 from Nico Collins. With the win, Mike has all but clinched a playoff spot (more on that later).

Pat def. Richie, 91.72-84.28

Speaking of unexpected playoff spots, look who's in sixth place! Our very own #PlayoffPat held onto a slim lead through the Monday night game and has moved to 7-6 on the year. Josh Jacobs (19.20) once again led the Vistas, while new(ish) additions D.J. Chark, Jr. (13.07) and Ja'Marr Chase (12.93) also made positive contributions.

Richie was formally eliminated despite Garrett Wilson (21.60) having a huge game.

Ed def. Kevin, 115.12-110.58

Ed needed Mike Evans (7.87) just to not suck on Monday night, and he got his wish, but he was shocked to be there in the first place. That's because the Dallas defense scored 22.00 for Kevin on Sunday night, briefly giving him a small lead.

Other than the Cowboys defense, no player scored more than twenty points in this balanced matchup. Ed's best players were Samaje Perine (17.13) and Isiah Pacheco (14.73); Kevin's were DeVonta Smith (19.60) and Cam Akers (18.00).

Rob def. Scott, 93.30-86.99

Joe Burrow (32.40) and Terry McLaurin (20.00) were outstanding for Rob, who's effectively clinched a bye. Scott got 20.65 from Mike White and 17.77 from CeeDee Lamb, but Rachaad White (12.27) just couldn't do enough on Monday night to pull off a big comeback.

Pulley def. Derrek, 92.35-88.22

Christian Watson (23.00) and Robbie Gould (20.40) led the way for Pulley, overcoming Deshaun Watson's 6.15 and Alvin Kamara's 4.07 to give him an important close victory. Derrek got relatively disappointing games from Patrick Mahomes II (21.05) and Justin Jefferson (13.10), ending his six game 100-point streak.

Dave def. Schertz, 153.62-119.86

Dave had a great score that fell just short of prize money (more on that in a bit), with Davante Adams (35.60), A.J. Brown (27.87), and the Cleveland defense (32.00) leading the way. Schertz took a very tough loss, with the third highest score of the week, despite Tyler Lockett (23.07) having a great game.

Rabbit def. Matt, 157.01-88.54

Matt lost the biggest blowout of the week despite having the overall high scorer in Jalen Hurts (37.20). That's because Courtland Sutton (zero), George Pickens (0.27), and Ken Walker III (3.60) all had big duds. Well, also because Rabbit's team was absolutely amazing. Amon-Ra St. Brown (27.40), Tyreek Hill (25.47), Jared Goff (24.00), Christian McCaffrey (23.27), and Tony Pollard (23.10) all scored more than twenty points for Rabs, who is also now in bye position.

Standings

  1. Rob, 9-4, 1,356.15 (x)
  2. Rabbit, 8-5, 1,313.26
  3. Mike R., 8-5, 1,247.95
  4. Dave, 7-6, 1,445.72
  5. Derrek, 7-6, 1,379.26
  6. Pat, 7-6, 1,159.24
  7. Pulley, 7-6, 1,128.63
  8. Schertz, 6-7, 1,482.25
  9. Scott, 6-7, 1,379.94
  10. Ed, 6-7, 1,351.34
  11. Matt, 6-7, 1,296.71
  12. Kevin, 6-7, 1,261.65
  13. Richie, 5-8, 1,196.09 (e)
  14. Babel, 3-10, 1,127.48 (e)

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Schertz, 665
  2. Dave, 646
  3. Rob, 595
  4. Derrek, 591
  5. Scott, 578
  6. Ed, 564
  7. Rabbit, 504
  8. Matt, 498
  9. Kevin, 482
  10. Mike R., 455
  11. Richie, 402
  12. Pat, 362
  13. Babel, 332
  14. Pulley, 326

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Rabbit's 157.01 was the highest score in week 13 and is the third highest so far this year.

Dave's 153.62 is the fourth highest score to miss out on Team Blangums.

Slapped Heartbeat

Richie's 84.28 is the second best Slapped Heartbeat in Blingaleague history.

Weekly MVP

The Browns defense (and special teams) scored three touchdowns and 32.00 points for Dave.

Dud of the Week

Mike Gesicki put up his second zero in a row for Richie.

A brief side note: in a year of disappointing TEs, is Gesicki the most notable? He's scored less than one point five times, and more than five points just thrice. He did at least put up 21.20 in week 6.

Start of the Week

Ed chose correctly among his numerous RB options, as Samaje Perine (17.13) and Isiah Pacheco (14.73) outscored Latavius Murray (6.57) by enough to make the difference in his matchup.

Misplay of the Week

Babel left Najee Harris's 9.40 on his bench in favor of Chase Claypool's 1.73 and it cost him a win.

Pickup of the Week

Pat grabbed D.J. Chark, Jr. and got 13.07 important points from him.

Blessed Cahoots

A lot of wild action this week, but no one really stood out as getting ass-backwards good luck. Let's just give it to Mike R. for his reaction to his and Tom Brady's unexpected comeback.

Pryor Play of the Week

Kevin hasn't been starting him that much, so he isn't an ideal recipient of this award, but Cam Akers put up 18.00 after six straight games in single digits.

Playoff Scenarios

Rob has clinched a playoff berth.

Rob clinches a bye with:

  • a win OR a Rabbit loss OR a Mike R. loss.

Rob clinches first place with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Rabbit loss AND a Mike R. loss.

Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Dave loss OR a Pat loss OR a Pulley loss.

Rabbit clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Mike R. loss.

Mike R. clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Dave loss OR a Derrek loss OR a Pat loss OR a Pulley loss.

Mike R. clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Rabbit loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Derrek loss OR a Pat loss OR a Pulley loss.

Derrek clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

Pat clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Dave loss OR a Derrek loss OR a Pulley loss.

Pulley clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Dave loss OR a Derrek loss OR a Pat loss.

(Babel and Richie have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II: Teams Currently Above .500

Rob has effectively locked up a bye. A win gets him a first place finish, and if he loses, Rabbit and Mike R. would both need to win while outscoring him by 43 and 109 points, respectively. That's extremely unlikely, so we should see Rob's name permanently listed in the "First Place" column of the Seasons page on blingaleague.com.

Rabbit has enough of a cushion on Mike R. that he should get a bye with a win. A loss to Derrek will push him out of a bye for sure, as that means Derrek will have the same number of wins and will retain his points lead. Rabs also really shouldn't fear falling out of the playoffs should he lose, as he'd need all the currently 7-6 teams to win and pass him in points; that means Pat and Pulley would need to outscore him by 155 and 185, respectively.

Mike R. will need some help to get a bye even with a win. He could catch Rabbit in points if they both win - after all, they were just about even before week 13 - but the easier path is for Rabs to just lose. And like Rabs, he has enough of a points lead over Pat (88) and Pulley (119) to where it would take an unprecedented sequence of events for him to fall to seventh place.

In a more normal year, a quartet of 7-6 teams would all basically have the same scenario. But this is not a normal year (more on that in the "Closing Thoughts" section).

So let's start with Dave. His point total is high enough that a bye is in reach, should he win and Rabbit and Mike R. lose. And that point total also means that winning is enough to make the playoffs (Pulley would have to make up over 300 points to catch an 8-6 Dave). However, two 6-7 teams - Schertz and Scott - have enough points that a loss, plus wins by them, could result in Dave falling to seventh place (even though Schertz winning means another 7-6 team, Pat, loses). That said, it's a longshot for Scott to pass Dave in points (he's 65 behind, though they were within a point of each other just a week ago), so Dave has a very good chance of making the playoffs.

Derrek has a simpler way to technically clinch a playoff spot: just win. A win means he is for sure ahead of the seven teams that have 6 or fewer wins and that he's ahead of Rabbit, whom he'll have just beaten and stayed ahead of in points. A loss is riskier for Derrek than it is for Dave, since Scott (and Schertz, of course) are already ahead of him in points.

Pat and Pulley have very similar situations. They are both low enough in points - 12th and 13th overall, respectively - that they need to win to make the playoffs and hope for some other good outcomes. For Pat, the easiest other outcome is to just stay ahead of Pulley in points; he's up 30 points right now. For Pulley, he'll either need one of the other 7-6 teams to lose or to outscore Pat by 31 for a win to get him into the playoffs.

Losses for either kill their chances. There is no way they'd catch any of the five teams in front of them; Rob, Rabbit, and Mike R. would have better records, and Dave or Derrek would be ahead in points (Pat trails them by 286 and 220 points, respectively, and Pulley's even further behind). And Pat would fall behind Schertz with a loss (he trails Schertz by 333 already!), while Pulley would be behind the winner of Pat's game. So they both must win to stay alive.

Playoff Scenarios, Part III: Everyone Else

None of the 6-7 teams can catch Rob, Rabbit, or Mike R., so they'll need to pass at least two of the current 7-6ers. And, of course, they all must win.

Schertz is 6-7 but 36 points ahead of the team with the second most points (Dave). A win alone won't get him in; while he'd pass Pat, he'd still need one of Dave, Derrek, or Pulley to also lose (and there's a chance that Dave could pass him in points even with a loss). His most straightforward path? Win and Dave, Derrek, or Pulley loses.

Pat and Schertz playing each other means that any other 6-7 team that wins will be behind one, but not both, of them (unless they catch Schertz in points, which is very unlikely, as the closest 6-7 to Schertz (Scott) has 103 fewer points).

Scott, despite being in third place or better for half the season, has an even tougher path to the playoffs. First, he needs to win. Given he can't pass both Pat and Schertz, that means he'll need two of Dave, Derrek, and Pulley to lose, and be ahead of them in points; he's 65 behind Dave, less than 1 ahead of Derrek, and 251 ahead of Pulley right now. His most straightforward path? Score 100 and win, Derrek scores less than 100 and loses, and Pulley loses.

Ed is not too different from Scott; he needs all the same things, plus to pass Scott. He's 94 points behind Dave, 28 behind Scott and Derrek, and 222 ahead of Pulley. His most straightforward path? Score 130 and win, Derrek scores less than 100 and loses, Pulley loses, and Scott scores less than 100.

Matt is not too different from Ed; he needs all the same things, plus to pass Ed. He's 148 points behind Dave, 83 behind Scott and Derrek, 54 behind Ed, and 168 ahead of Pulley. His most straightforward path? Score 150 and win, Derrek and Scott compete for Slapped Heartbeat, Pulley loses, and Ed scores less than 100.

Kevin at least plays Dave, so he knows he can take one of the 7-6 teams down to 7-7 with a win. But even then he's very unlikely to pass Dave, and would still need to pass enough of the rest. He's 184 points behind Dave, 118 behind Scott and Derrek, 89 behind Ed, 35 behind Matt, and 133 ahead of Pulley. His most straightforward path? Break the single game scoring record (again!), Derrek and Scott compete for Slapped Heartbeat, Pulley loses, and Ed scores less than 100.

Week 14 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 7-6, 6th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 6-7, 8th)

All-time series tied, 5-5.

For just the second time ever, Pat is in playoff position with a week to go. And just like in 2016, he's playing someone who's way ahead of him in points. Josh Jacobs (@LAR) has been so good this year and faces a Rams team that might have given up. Pat won't have keeper Chris Olave (bye), but he will have keeper Ja'Marr Chase (vs. CLE) and new face D.J. Chark, Jr. (vs. MIN). Ryan Tannehill (vs. JAC) isn't exactly who you want at QB in a do-or-die game, but you could argue his opponent has it worse...

A major reason Schertz leads the league in points has been QB production. Justin Fields (bye) and Lamar Jackson (@PIT) both rank among the top six QBs this year... and it's unlikely either will be available in week 14, as Jackson suffered a knee injury. Schertz did pick up Jackson's real-life backup, Tyler Huntley (@PIT), but that's obviously a step down even if he was the best QB available. It doesn't help that Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, and Taysom Hill all join Fields on bye. Schertz will really need Stefon Diggs (vs. NYJ) and Tyler Lockett (vs. CAR) to continue their stellar play and at least one of Adam Thielen (@DET) and Treylon Burks (vs. JAC) to step up in order to make the playoffs.

Pick: Is this more a head or a heart pick? Who cares? #PlayoffPat!

Other Blingamatches

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 8-5, 2nd) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 7-6, 5th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 9-8.

If you were to ask Mike R., I'm sure he'd tell you this is a battle for the second bye, since he harbors no real hope of beating his rival. And for Rabbit, he's definitely right. Stacking Jared Goff (vs. MIN) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. MIN) worked very well last week, and this week looks just about as promising. Don't forget Tyreek Hill (@LAC) and Christian McCaffrey (vs. TAM), either. The bye looks like Rabbit's for the taking.

That's in part because Derrek will be without Jonathan Taylor (bye), and is looking at a tough matchup for Patrick Mahomes II (@DEN). Justin Jefferson (@DET) should bounce back from a down week, but how will DeAndre Hopkins (vs. NE) fare against a defense that has had some outstanding performances this year?

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Rob for Today (Rob, 9-4, 1st) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-6, 7th)

All-time series tied, 10-10.

Rob doesn't have a ton to play for, as he's more or less locked into first place already, so being without A.J. Dillon (bye), Terry McLaurin (bye), and Michael Pittman, Jr. (bye) isn't that big a deal. But you know he'll want to stop Pulley from sneaking into the playoffs despite his well-below-average team (see below), so he'll definitely want Nick Chubb (@CIN), Joe Burrow (vs. CLE), and Jaylen Waddle (@LAC) to have big games.

Pulley only needs a few not-so-unlikely events to go his way to become one of the worst playoff teams in Blingaleague history. He currently has 1,128.63 points (86.82 per game) and 4.23 expected wins (.326 expected winning percentage). Only 2010 Allen made the playoffs averaging fewer points per game, and Pulley will need 0.668 expected wins - which works out to 108.23 points - this week to catch him in that metric (in an extra week, too!). Aaron Rodgers's bye means that Deshaun Watson (@CIN) will be playing for Pulley again; he can't be much worse than last week, at least. Marquise Brown (vs. NE) looks like he'll be back, too, which could make up for the red-hot Christian Watson (bye) being unavailable.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 8-5, 3rd) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 6-7, 11th)

Matt leads all-time series, 15-5.

Against all odds, Mike has maneuvered his way into a playoff spot. Credit goes to not overthinking the first overall pick (Derrick Henry (vs. JAC)) and making some shrewd trades to add Tee Higgins (vs. CLE) and Keenan Allen (vs. MIA) to what had been a barren WR corps. Tom Brady (@SF) is up against a tough defense, but the 49ers' QB situation could mean some short fields to work with. Is this the year to break his losing streak against Matt?

Matt looked awesome for a while, but boy did that change. Jaylen Hurts (@NYG), as often noted in The Gazette, has stayed great, but Saquon Barkley (vs. PHI) dropped off a ton and Mark Andrews (@PIT) has dealt with injuries. Is this a lesson in the value of depth? Starting Isaiah McKenzie (vs. NYJ) and Corey Davis (@BUF) with your season on the line is not an ideal situation.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 7-6, 4th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 6-7, 12th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 12-5.

Our defending champ is once again being projected for some silly scores at the end of the year. I'd be willing to bet the under on his current 125-point projection, but it's not that Davante Adams (@LAR), A.J. Brown (@NYG), Travis Kelce (@DEN), and Dalvin Cook (@DET) shouldn't still do quite well.

Kevin should get Joe Mixon (vs. CLE) back this week, and he could really use another epic game from the Bengal to pull an upset here. Trevor Lawrence (@TEN) has been fine, but not great, and George Kittle (vs. TAM), DeVonta Smith (@NYG), and Cam Akers (vs. LV) have not been reliably productive.

Pick: Super Bash Bros.

Mostly Three Digit FC (Scott, 6-7, 9th) vs. DK Country (Richie, 5-8, 13th)

Richie leads all-time series, 4-1.

It's a shame to see Scott as a longshot to make the playoffs for the first time after how consistently good he was for a while. Hey, at least he'll win the most improved team award. CeeDee Lamb (vs. HOU) and Ezekiel Elliott (vs. HOU) have a great matchup, and while Rachaad White (@SF) doesn't, he's at least getting lots of touches now. Kyler Murray (vs. NE) and Deebo Samuel (vs. TAM) could be key to Scott's playoff hopes; if they don't score 35 between them, he's probably toast.

Richie's been frisky all year but couldn't get the same fortune Pat and Pulley have. Tua Tagovailoa (@LAC) and Amari Cooper (@CIN) were great picks, but the rest of Richie's roster was not quite good enough (Austin Ekeler (vs. MIA) excepted).

Pick: Mostly Three Digit FC.

Live Commish (Ed, 6-7, 10th) vs. Swift Justice (Babel, 3-10, 14th)

Babel leads all-time series, 13-5.

Ed's team performed like they wanted to end the commissioner's playoff drought in week 13, but other matchups didn't go his way. He's a longshot, but at least has a somewhat-realistic path to the playoffs. Mike Evans (@SF) scoring some touchdowns and Josh Allen (vs. NYJ) returning to midseason form would be a big step towards his unlikely dream, so that Ed doesn't need all his RB2s - Isiah Pacheco (@DEN), Miles Sanders (@NYG), and Latavius Murray (vs. KC) - to play like RB1s.

Babel's season is done, but at least he won't be tempted by Chase Claypool (bye) this week. Dak Prescott (vs. HOU) has been good, not great, and Dameon Pierce (@DAL) has a very tough matchup. He'll have to hope his history of domination in this rivalry is enough to pull the upset, because his team is clearly worse than Ed's on paper.

Pick: Live Commish.

Closing Thoughts

If this season feels like the weirdest one we've had, here's some evidence to back that up. The figures below represent the correlation between place in the standings and rank by total points. As you can see, 2022 is well below any previous year.

  • 2008: 0.951
  • 2009: 0.699
  • 2010: 0.734
  • 2011: 0.573
  • 2012: 0.802
  • 2013: 0.591
  • 2014: 0.903
  • 2015: 0.697
  • 2016: 0.842
  • 2017: 0.890
  • 2018: 0.846
  • 2019: 0.947
  • 2020: 0.684
  • 2021: 0.846
  • 2022: 0.363