The Sanderson Gazette - 2022-12-14 - #PlayoffPat

Ed: "Pat's 108 will be the third highest score [of the week], barring some craziness... #PlayoffPat emphatically has joined the postseason."

Mike R.: "I'd like to refer to anything #PlayoffPat does as emphatic from here on out."

Mike R.: "#PlayoffPat emphatically adds Wil Lutz and drops DeAndre Carter."

Week 14 Recap

Pat def. Schertz, 108.04-83.34

"D.J. Chark's number gonna hang from the rafters if he leads the Noodleviews to the promised land." - Rob

He did it! #PlayoffPat is no longer just a dream.

D.J. Chark, Jr. (18.53) was a big part of Pat's triumph, but don't overlook the contributions Ja'Marr Chase (21.97), Josh Jacobs (17.90), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (15.87) made. Pat had such a good week that he was able to easily overcome the Tennessee defense (-6.00) bottoming out.

Schertz wild season (more on that later) ended with a whimper. Adam Thielen (14.67) and David Njoku (13.67) had nice games, but Stefon Diggs (4.93) and Jamaal Williams (3.70) fell well below expectations.

Derrek def. Rabbit, 118.36-113.03

The second bye came down to the Monday night game, where DeAndre Hopkins (8.53) scored enough for Derrek to defeat his Rabbit and deny him a free pass to the semifinals. Justin Jefferson (29.73) carried the load for D; Jared Goff (29.40) and Christian McCaffrey (28.43) did the same for Rabs, who was undone by his special teamers, Ryan Succop (zero) and the Tampa Bay defense (-4.00).

Rabbit became the fourth team this year and the sixteenth ever to put up the second highest score in a week, but lose. The rest:

  1. Week 3, 2010: Dave lost to Babel, 143.94-128.55
  2. Week 7, 2012: Dave lost to Mike R., 138.63-116.95
  3. Week 10, 2012: Rob lost to Mike R., 169.56-109.34
  4. Week 2, 2013: Kevin lost to Matt, 171.54-151.29
  5. Week 7, 2013: Babel lost to Rabbit, 137.82-133.37
  6. Week 7, 2014: Rabbit lost to Babel, 124.99-113.52
  7. Week 5, 2015: Rob lost to Richie, 132.84-131.32
  8. Week 7, 2016: Matt lost to Babel, 133.02-129.83
  9. Week 6, 2018: Ed lost to Derrek, 148.61-130.71
  10. Week 8, 2018: Scott lost to Derrek, 142.61-142.51
  11. Week 5, 2020: Ed lost to Schertz, 137.24-135.15
  12. Week 11, 2021: Richie lost to Derrek, 149.50-137.82
  13. Week 3, 2022: Ed lost to Matt, 136.04-134.50
  14. Week 5, 2022: Schertz lost to Matt, 128.46-123.90
  15. Week 7, 2022: Derrek lost to Kevin, 139.37-121.18
  16. Week 14, 2022: Rabbit lost to Derrek, 118.36-113.03

Mike R. def. Matt, 78.42-75.99

Rabbit's loss meant that Mike got the second bye, but he very nearly blew it. Derrick Henry (18.63) and Zonovan Knight (13.90) had good games, but Tee Higgins's zero and Tom Brady's 12.65 left Mike trailing heading into the Sunday night game. But Keenan Allen's 12.27 pushed him ahead, and he took no chances by playing the Arizona defense (3.00 on his bench) on Monday night.

Matt was led, as always, by Jalen Hurts (30.55). Saquon Barkley (5.47) and Mark Andrews (2.27) were huge disappointments, though.

Dave def. Kevin, 107.05-94.34

This game was more dramatic than it was meaningful. Dave held onto a slim Monday night lead thanks to the Patriots defense's (22.00) huge game and Rhamondre Stevenson's (1.07) injury for Kev. Kirk Cousins (27.75 for Kevin) was the overall high scorer in this one.

Richie def. Scott, 82.55-75.41

"I have some promise. Might come down to me and D's total score. See if I can get my .15 revenge." - Scott

Heading into Monday night, Scott needed a bad game from DeAndre Hopkins (so that Derrek would lose) and 35+ points from Kyler Murray (0.75). Hopkins played well, so it didn't matter, but Murray lasted less than one series before leaving with a knee injury.

The door was open for Richie, behind James Conner (18.37), to win his fifth straight against his rival.

Rob def. Pulley, 98.82-66.00

Mike Williams (21.47), J.K. Dobbins (18.00), and Chigoziem Okonkwo (14.00) led the way for Rob to win his tenth game of the year. Only the Baltimore defense (13.00) outperformed projections for Pulley, resulting in a rather boring Clash of Hatred this year.

Ed def. Babel, 94.33-70.71

The Timberwolves Hat will go back to Ed and Miles Sanders (27.87). Babel got poor games from Dak Prescott (16.00) and Foster Moreau (zero) and must be glad to see 2022 finally end.

Standings

  1. Rob, 10-4, 1,454.97 (b)
  2. Mike R., 9-5, 1,326.37 (b)
  3. Dave, 8-6, 1,552.77 (x)
  4. Derrek, 8-6, 1,497.62 (x)
  5. Rabbit, 8-6, 1,426.29 (x)
  6. Pat, 8-6, 1,267.28 (x)
  7. Ed, 7-7, 1,445.67
  8. Pulley, 7-7, 1,194.63
  9. Schertz, 6-8, 1,565.59
  10. Scott, 6-8, 1,455.35
  11. Matt, 6-8, 1,372.70
  12. Kevin, 6-8, 1,355.99
  13. Richie, 6-8, 1,278.64
  14. Babel, 3-11, 1,198.19

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Dave, 655
  2. Schertz, 644
  3. Derrek, 615
  4. Rob, 596
  5. Ed, 562
  6. Scott, 556
  7. Rabbit, 529
  8. Kevin, 486
  9. Matt, 482
  10. Mike R., 445
  11. Richie, 399
  12. Pat, 391
  13. Babel, 324
  14. Pulley, 315

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Derrek's 118.36 is his third Team Blangums of the year. It was the second worst score to win the award this year, which is fitting, because week 14 was the 20th lowest scoring week of all time.

Slapped Heartbeat

Pulley earned his second Slapped Heartbeat in three weeks with 66.00. That's the 9th worst score of 2022.

Weekly MVP

Justin Jefferson scored 29.73 for Derrek without any touchdowns.

Dud of the Week

Numerous good choices, but the Buccaneers defense's -4.00 was quite costly for Rabbit.

Start of the Week

Derrek played Donovan Peoples-Jones (15.20) over Michael Carter (0.50); Terrace Marshall, Jr. (2.40); and Mike Boone (3.80).

Misplay of the Week

It feels bad to pick on Rabbit, who did put up the second best total of the week, but Jerick McKinnon's 29.13 and Jerry Jeudy's 27.73 were on his bench, while Gabriel Davis's 4.13 were in his lineup.

Pickup of the Week

Rob added Chigoziem Okonkwo and was immediately rewarded with 14.00 points.

Blessed Cahoots

Mike R. made it past Tee Higgins's injury-driven zero thanks to Matt's Tyler Boyd being in the exact same scenario.

Season Postmortems

Babel, 3-11 (0.214), 1,198.19 points, 14th place, 4.54 expected wins

Babel stumbled out of the gate, scoring 63.76 in week 1 (somehow avoiding getting his heartbeat slapped and nearly winning), and never showed any signs of turning his season around. He only broke 100 points twice and only surpassed the seasonal median of 95.72 four times. After week 7, he fell into last place and never moved up.

This was inarguably Babel's worst season, whether by record (he hit double digit losses for the first time) or by other metrics (his expected and all-play win percentages were both more than 100 points worse than his previous low marks).

Because of his general suckiness, Babel made a move for keeper Dameon Pierce early, and really didn't have to pay much of a premium to do it. He also has Alec Pierce, Jameson Williams, Nico Collins, Khalil Herbert, and DK Metcalf as players with potential keeper value.

Richie, 6-8 (0.429), 1,278.64 points, 13th place, 5.59 expected wins

Richie followed up his record-setting 2021 with a very disappointing year. His high-water mark came after week 1, when he was the lowest-scoring winner, and he failed to break the 100-point mark until week 8. At least he managed to only suffer through one Slapped Heartbeat award, when he put up his sixth-worst score of the season in week 13.

Richie's only trade was for Jaylen Warren, who has a little potential keeper value. But Amari Cooper, Garrett Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, and maybe even Austin Ekeler have more.

Kevin, 6-8 (0.429), 1,355.99 points, 12th place, 6.80 expected wins

If Rhamondre Stevenson hadn't gotten injured early in his week 14 game (and/or the Patriots defense didn't go off in said game for Dave), Kevin would have finished in 8th. What I'm getting at is that he's a bit better than the typical 12th place team; in fact, more than half of his ten most similar teams finished in 7th place or better.

Kevin's keeper options aren't super obvious. Stevenson should have good value, and guys like Brandon Aiyuk and DeVonta Smith could be good choices, too. And Cooper Kupp looms with a first round cost.

Matt, 6-8 (0.429), 1,372.70 points, 11th place, 6.74 expected wins

At the halfway point of the season, Matt was in third place and ranked fourth in points and third in expected wins. But from that point forward, he went 2-5 and scored fewer points and had fewer expected wins than every other team.

Ken Walker III looks like one of the best keepers heading into 2023, so Matt does have that going for him. He also has George Pickens, Jalen Hurts, and maybe even Saquon Barkley to choose from.

Scott, 6-8 (0.429), 1,455.35 points, 10th place, 7.78 expected wins

Scott led the league in points and was in second place after ten weeks. He then lost his last four games, only scoring above 90 once in that span.

He acquired Rachaad White via trade late in the year and could keep Deebo Samuel or Breece Hall in the third round. Throw in some guys like D'Onta Foreman and Zay Jones and Scott isn't in awful shape looking forward despite really pushing to make the playoffs this year.

Schertz, 6-8 (0.429), 1,565.59 points, 9th place, 9.02 expected wins

You could make a case that Schertz was the best team this season. He finished with the most points and the second highest expected winning percentage. In fact, he has the highest expected winning percentage ever among non-playoff teams.

Justin Fields was a big part of Schertz's success and looks like a good keeper. He also held onto Treylon Burks and Kareem Hunt all year for their potential.

Pulley, 7-7 (0.500), 1,194.63 points, 8th place, 4.41 expected wins

You could make a case that Pulley was the worst team this season. He finished with the fewest points and the lowest expected winning percentage. He only scored above the seasonal median of 95.72 twice. And while merely winning in week 14 wouldn't have gotten him into the playoffs, he still was far closer than he had any right to be.

Travis Etienne, Jr. is an excellent keeper heading into next year. Will Deshaun Watson be one, too? Even if not, Christian Watson looks like a legitimate option.

Ed, 7-7 (0.500), 1,445.67 points, 7th place, 7.87 expected wins

Ed was good enough to lead the league in expected wins following week 4 and week 5, but his record never quite matched his peripherals. He lost three games by less than three points - but did win two more by less than five - coming closer to a playoff spot than any other time in his current nine-year playoff drought.

He traded away some keeper options like Chris Olave and Jameson Williams early in the year, but changed course and received Isiah Pacheco in week 12 to build towards 2023.

Quarterfinals Preview

#4 D's Nuts (Derrek, 8-6) vs. #5 Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 8-6)

All-time series tied, 9-9.

What a treat - we get a continuation of the best game of rivalry week! This is the first time in Blingaleague history that the same matchup has occurred in consecutive weeks, and it should be a great one.

Saturday games start this week, and Derrek will be very interested in the very first one. Justin Jefferson (vs. IND) and Jonathan Taylor (@MIN) face off in that game, and if it's low-scoring, D could be in trouble. Patrick Mahomes II (@HOU) does get the easiest opponent in the league, but that could also mean the Chiefs just rely on running the ball. And DeAndre Hopkins (@DEN) will be without Kyler Murray and facing a tough defense, himself.

Meanwhile, Rabbit has to like Christian McCaffrey's (@DEA) matchup, and has Jerick McKinnon (@HOU) sitting there hoping the Chiefs do rely on running the ball. Jared Goff (@NY) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (@NYJ) have a tough matchup, though, which means Rabs isn't obviously favored in this one.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

#3 Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 8-6) vs. #6 The Vistas are Back (Pat, 8-6)

Dave leads all-time series, 8-6.

Pat's reward for finally making the playoffs? Facing the hottest team in the league, who also happens to be the defending champ.

No one has more points (832.45) or expected wins (5.05) in the second half of the season than Dave, and Yahoo loves his team this week. A.J. Brown (@CHI) and Travis Kelce (@HOU) have great matchups (though the same worry that Derrek has can apply, if the heavy favorites just run-run-run), and D'Andre Swift (@NYJ) looks like he's the lead back in Detroit once again. Davante Adams (vs. NE) has a very high projection, but can he be trusted against a tough defense?

Pat joins the club of having a pass-catching Chief, JuJu Smith-Schuster (@HOU), but has the same matchup question as Dave with Josh Jacobs (vs. NE). It might come down to D.J. Chark, Jr. (@NYJ) again, along with two players Pat traded for as keepers: Ja'Marr Chase (@TAM) and Chris Olave (vs. ATL).

Pick: Super Bash Bros.

Closing Thoughts

Mike R. and Ed were the only teams with no Team Blangums or Slapped Heartbeat awards. Two award-less teams is pretty normal; here's the full list in the fifteen years of Blingaleague history. Our very first year, both bye teams avoided the weekly extremes!

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013

2014

  • Ed, 6-7, 8th

2015

2016

2017

2018

2020

  • Pat, 5-8, 12th
  • Ed, 4-9, 13th

2021

2022