The Sanderson Gazette - 2022-12-21 - History vs. Hotness
The only previous time that the top four seeds made the semifinals, every single playoff was won by the higher seed. Will history repeat itself? Or will the two hottest teams remaining meet in Blingabowl XVI?
Quarterfinals Recap
Derrek def. Rabbit, 123.06-109.99
Stop me if you've heard this before: Derrek won thanks to Patrick Mahomes II (35.10) and Justin Jefferson (22.40). But it wasn't just them; Dawson Knox (19.07) and D.J. Moore (15.73) both put up surprisingly high scores, too.
Those scores were all necessary, as Rabbit had a good week on the opposite side of the ledger. Christian McCaffrey (20.80) was his usual self, and just about every other player on his roster hit double digits. Only Gerald Everett (5.60) and Cameron Dicker (6.30) fell below ten points.
Dave def. Pat, 107.68-66.82
Our other quarterfinal was a laugher, as #PlayoffPat played like he was just happy to be there.
"The Vistas out kicked our coverage this year so it’s a W in my book." - Pat
See?
No player on Pat's roster outperformed Yahoo's projections, and Andy Dalton's 14.65 represented his high-water mark.
Meanwhile, Dave got 26.17 from Dalvin Cook and 24.13 from A.J. Brown and returned to the semifinals.
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums
Derrek's 123.06 is in the top quartile of quarterfinals scores.
Slapped Heartbeat
Pat put up a meager 66.82 - just the eighth time a team has scored below 70 in an elimination game.
Weekly MVP
Patrick Mahomes II's 35.10 (for Derrek) earns him this award.
Dud of the Week
A week after propelling Pat to the playoffs, D.J. Chark, Jr. scored just 2.40.
Start of the Week
Starting Drake London was a bit unconventional, but his 7.33 was better than anyone on Dave's bench.
Misplay of the Week
While Rabbit did see all his RBs and WRs hit double digits, he left Jerick McKinnon's 28.53 on his bench. If he had sat Jerry Jeudy (10.13) or Tony Pollard (11.63) instead, he'd be playing in the semis.
Season Postmortems
Pat, 8-6 (0.571), 1,267.28 points, 6th place, 5.48 expected wins
Sure, Pat may have had a horrible final game, but he finally made the playoffs! That means 2022 was his best season to date! And while he was still near the bottom of the league in total points, he can at least say he earned his playoff berth, as he won his last four games to finish the year strong.
He traded for Ja'Marr Chase and Chris Olave before #playoffpat started trending again, which means he's pretty well set heading into 2023.
Rabbit, 8-6 (0.571), 1,426.29 points, 5th place, 7.41 expected wins
Rabbit had a year that's become quite typical of him. He was in first place after week 2, but then failed to break 80 points the next two weeks. All tolled, he failed to hit that mark four times; only Pulley had more such games. But Rabs also won Team Blangums thrice; only Derrek equaled that mark.
As for keepers, Christian McCaffrey will almost certainly be worth the 10th pick next year, and Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tony Pollard all have potential in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th rounds, respectively. And don't sleep on Gerald Everett for the low cost of a 12th round pick.
Semifinals Preview
#1 Rob for Today (Rob, 10-4) vs. #4 D's Nuts (Derrek, 9-6)
Rob finally broke the eight-win barrier with a team that has no holes. Joe Burrow (@NE) is a top-five QB. Nick Chubb (vs. NO) is a top-five RB. Jaylen Waddle (vs. GB) and Terry McLaurin (@SF) are both top-fifteen WRs. Throw in Mike Williams (@IND) and J.K. Dobbins (vs. ATL), and you have a team with a very high floor.
The problem for Rob is that he's up against the team with one of the highest ceilings... who is also one of the hottest teams in the league. From week 11 onward, only Dave and Schertz have a higher expected winning percentage than Derrek. Justin Jefferson (vs. NYG) is the top-scoring WR in the league this year, and Patrick Mahomes II (vs. SEA) is just 0.20 points behind Jalen Hurts for the same designation among QBs. Jonathan Taylor may be done for the year, but DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TAM) and D.J. Moore (vs. DET) have some nice matchups and could swing this game.
Pick: Burrow is one of the few QBs that can keep pace with Mahomes, and Rob's WR trio might be better overall than D's. I'll go with Rob for Today, but this could easily go either way.
#2 Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 9-5) vs. #3 Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 9-6)
Dave leads all-time series, 11-4.
By any metric you choose, Mike is the weakest team to ever earn a bye. The "Season Trajectory" chart on his 2022 team page, hilariously shows that he ranked 10th by points and expected wins for all but two weeks this year. But don't overlook Mike's chances of reaching the Blingabowl for the first time. Derrick Henry (vs. HOU) is capable of winning games on his own, and he faces the horrendous Texans this week.
Pat: "Look at the history, the only way you get the #playoffpat push is cause we're the lovable losers."
Ed: "Yeah, but Dave was that too and now he's borderline heel."
Pat: "Borderline?"
Our defending champ, meanwhile, is the hottest team in the whole league. From week 11 onward, Dave has the most points and expected wins, and while he doesn't have two players quite as good as Mahomes and Jefferson for D, he has quite a few of the next tier down: Travis Kelce (vs. SEA), Davante Adams (@PIT), A.J. Brown (@DAL), and Dalvin Cook (vs. NYG).
Pick: Strangely, this might be one game where Mike has a QB advantage, as Tom Brady (@ARI) has settled into a steady 17-20 point window, while Justin Herbert (@IND) has been more mercurial for Dave. I suspect they'll mostly cancel each other out, though, so the week 12 trade between these two could make the difference. I have a hunch Dave will regret trading Tee Higgins (@NE) and Keenan Allen (@IND) for Cook, and that Bernie's Bullies will pull the upset.
Closing Thoughts
Be on the lookout for the usual Google Form survey about rule changes moving forward. There will be a few items up for voting.