The Sanderson Gazette - 2023-08-16 - Sweet Sixteen

"If it is any indication of my recent failures in Fantasy, I'm keeping two Texans." - Babel

Draft Details

The draft will be this Saturday, the 19th, at 2 pm at my house (see your email for the address). We'll have a Zoom set up for remote attendees, and picks will officially be posted in the draft board doc and its chat.

Keepers

Babel

  • Dameon Pierce, 8.14 (4.02 ADP)
  • Nico Collins, 11.01 (12.11 ADP)

See the quote above. Babel had an awful 2022, and keeping two Texans into 2023 means he'll have to draft well to return to the playoffs. Having the first overall pick will help with that, at least.

Richie

  • Garrett Wilson, 9.02 (2.05 ADP)
  • Tua Tagovailoa, 10.13 (7.04)

Richie didn't keep two from the same team like Babel, but he did stay in the same division. Wilson in particular provides excellent value based on his ADP.

Kevin

  • Rhamondre Stevenson, 5.03 (2.11 ADP)
  • DeVonta Smith, 6.12 (2.14 ADP)

Despite making no trades last year, Kevin wound up with two solid keepers. Stevenson's ADP might drop a bit with the Patriots' Ezekiel Elliott signing, but shouldn't affect the value here that much.

Matt

  • Jalen Hurts, 4.11 (2.08 ADP)
  • Kenneth Walker III, 6.11 (3.10 ADP)

The keeping of top QBs is going to be a theme in this issue; Matt got his for two rounds' worth of value.

Scott

  • Breece Hall, 3.06 (3.05 ADP)
  • Rachaad White, 9.06 (5.14 ADP)

Keeping Hall doesn't provide much value (though it's more than just one pick's worth due to other players being kept), so it remains to be seen if he'll still be here come Saturday after the Jets' Dalvin Cook signing. White provides considerably more net value, even if he isn't expected to be as good as Hall overall.

Schertz

  • Treylon Burks, 8.07 (counts as a ninth for future purposes, 8.05 ADP)
  • Justin Fields, 9.08 (4.04 ADP)

Schertz had the option to keep two of the top QBs (Fields and Lamar Jackson), so it makes sense he took the one that cost less. Burks had a decent rookie year, but with DeAndre Hopkins joining the Titans, he doesn't have that much keeper value.

Pulley

  • Travis Etienne, Jr., 11.07 (3.01 ADP)
  • Deshaun Watson, 12.08 (6.13 ADP)

Pulley will run it back with the same keepers as last year. For their extremely low cost, can you argue against it?

Ed

  • Josh Allen, 2.10 (2.06 ADP)
  • Isiah Pacheco, 9.05 (6.01 ADP)

Allen doesn't give Ed much net value, so he'll need to be in the elite tier of QBs once again to be worth it. Pacheco is like Rachaad White for Scott - solid value, but not a full solution at RB.

Pat

  • Ja'Marr Chase, 2.06 (1.03 ADP)
  • Chris Olave, 7.09 (2.14 ADP)

Pat finally made the playoffs last year, and he didn't even have to mortgage the future to do it! Chase and Olave are among the best pair of keepers of any team this year; the only one who could argue theirs are better is...

Rabbit

  • Christian McCaffrey, 1.10 (1.02 ADP)
  • Tony Pollard, 5.10 (2.03 ADP)

...Rabbit, who kept two top-twenty players for just a first and a fifth! He spent more than Pat, but did get more overall value for it. It's tough to say who's better position heading into the draft.

Derrek

  • Patrick Mahomes II, 4.04 (2.01 ADP)
  • Alexander Mattison, 9.11 (5.01 ADP)

Derrek gets about the same value out of Mahomes as Matt does out of Jalen Hurts. Mattison is the veteran version of Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco; value as a keeper, but not projected to be an RB1.

Dave

  • Travis Kelce, 1.12 (1.06 ADP)
  • A.J. Brown, 2.03 (1.14 ADP)

Just like last year, Dave won't pick live until the third round. I'm sure he's OK with that, as he'll already have two first-round-caliber players on his roster.

Rob

  • Jaylen Waddle, 4.02 (2.10 ADP)
  • Calvin Ridley, 9.13 (3.13 ADP)

Rob retained Jaylen Waddle for another year and shrewdly picked up Ridley towards the end of last season. He enters 2023 with two solid WRs and still has his first three picks open.

Mike R.

  • Derrick Henry, 1.14 (2.03 ADP)
  • Evan Engram, 9.14 (6.12 ADP)

Henry appears to have negative value here, but based on who else has been kept, this is right about where he's projected to be picked. The certainty of knowing who he'll be taking with his first pick appears to be worth it for our defending champ.

A Rule Change Proposal / Clarification

I referred to Scott potentially dropping Breece Hall as a keeper earlier. Our current rules on modifying your keeper choices post-deadline (see section 5.8) were mostly written before we all officially submitted at the same time, and thus allow for commissioner discretion for replacing, not just dropping, a keeper choice.

In practice, allowing replacements is something I would intend to be very rare now that all choices are made just a week prior to the draft. So, in the interest of making this less of a gray area (and reducing the number of line items in the rules), I am planning to change section 5.8 to the following:

  • "Keeper choices are considered final as of the deadline (see rule 5.3). After the deadline has passed, keepers can be dropped (and the draft pick used to keep them reclaimed), but new keepers cannot be chosen."

If you do have any concerns with this change, please let me know. I'm not opening this up to a full vote, since it's really just a procedural change, but I also don't want to change it without you all having a chance to weigh in.

Closing Thoughts

Can you believe we're onto year sixteen?! Looking forward to seeing you all on Saturday!