The Sanderson Gazette - 2023-11-29 - Commission Accomplished

Week 12's average score of 108.55 was the 19th highest ever, and even more impressively, its 13.02 point average margin was the sixth lowest ever!

Week 12 Recap

Rob def. Rabbit, 129.03-126.97

The final points scored in this matchup - T.J. Hockenson's (12.67) 17-yard TD on Monday night - resulted in Rob nabbing a dramatic come-from-behind victory and moving into bye position.

Rabbit started off with a bang, as expected, scoring more than 110 points on Thanksgiving. His Turkey Day leaders were Jordan Love (29.30), Christian McCaffrey (26.73), and the Dallas defense (18.00).

Rob did well enough for himself on Thursday, in the form of Dak Prescott (35.55) and CeeDee Lamb (15.07), to remain within shouting distance. So when Jaylen Waddle added 15.20 on Friday(!) and Calvin Ridley put up 19.87 on Sunday, the stage was set for Hockenson's Monday night heroics.

Mike R. def. Kevin, 92.01-89.01

Mike kept his playoff hopes alive by the skin of his teeth thanks to Jake Elliott's (9.90) late 59-yard field goal (and DeVonta Smith (20.13) not adding enough in overtime for Kevin to retake the lead). Jared Goff garbage-timed his way into 20.00 points for Mike on Thanksgiving, while on the same day, Brock Purdy (12.05) didn't need to do much for his real-life team to win.

But the bigger story here is Kevin's defense boner: he picked up the Panthers (4.00), but left his defense slot empty.

Schertz def. Dave, 108.98-92.00

Kyren Williams (34.43) returned, which meant Schertz finally ended his losing streak. Sure, the 49ers defense (16.00) and D.J. Moore (15.20) helped, but this really was the Kyren show.

On the other side, Dave got 25.37 from Bijan Robinson and 21.00 from Kyler Murray, but his playing-for-2024-ravaged roster couldn't do enough outside of that..

Richie def. Pat, 93.06-83.25

Richie got strong games from Gabe Davis (20.00), David Montgomery (15.10), and the Titans defense (12.00) to earn his third win of the year. Pat got 15.20 from Chris Olave and 13.57 from Alvin Kamara, but Lamar Jackson's (15.75) underperformance resulted in him falling to 5-7.

Ed def. Scott, 133.89-111.17

Now we get to the game that prompted this week's headline. Ed's victory means the commissioner has officially ended his nine year playoff drought! Leading the way were Josh Allen (42.55), Mike Evans (21.33), and Jonathan Taylor (21.10).

Scott put up a good game himself behind the Denver defense (20.00) and Josh Jacobs (19.00), but took a tough loss that puts a huge dent in his playoff hopes.

Derrek def. Babel, 126.73-112.58

Derrek's best score of the year prevented Babel from clinching along with Ed. Midseason acquisitions C.J. Stroud (31.90), Isiah Pacheco (22.03), and Zay Flowers (19.03) powered the upset. Two Dolphins can sum up Babel's day: their defense wowed with 23.00, but Tua Tagovailoa stumbled to just 9.25.

Matt def. Pulley, 121.70-99.29

This matchup was part heavyweights throwing punches and part players falling flat. Matt got 35.50 from Jalen Hurts, 19.80 from Tyreek Hill, and 18.03 from Deebo Samuel... but also zero from Jonnu Smith and -1.00 from Riley Patterson. Pulley got 21.40 from Raheem Mostert and 19.60 from Derrick Henry... but also 14.05 from Justin Herbert and 2.53 from George Kittle.

Standings

  1. Ed, 9-3, 1,198.96 (x)
  2. Rob, 8-4, 1,353.83
  3. Babel, 8-4, 1,307.38
  4. Pulley, 7-5, 1,393.35
  5. Matt, 7-5, 1,328.26
  6. Rabbit, 7-5, 1,321.05
  7. Mike R., 6-6, 1,253.67
  8. Dave, 6-6, 1,161.11
  9. Scott, 6-6, 1,103.86
  10. Pat, 5-7, 1,180.76
  11. Schertz, 5-7, 1,170.10
  12. Derrek, 4-8, 1,106.82 (e)
  13. Richie, 3-9, 1,078.02 (e)
  14. Kevin, 3-9, 1,007.69 (e)
  • (x) - clinched playoff spot
  • (e) - eliminated from playoff contention

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Pulley, 673
  2. Matt, 662
  3. Rabbit, 645
  4. Rob, 635
  5. Babel, 594
  6. Mike R., 550
  7. Ed, 488
  8. Pat, 480
  9. Schertz, 444
  10. Dave, 431
  11. Scott, 389
  12. Derrek, 388
  13. Richie, 348
  14. Kevin, 271

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Ed clinched his playoff berth convincingly with 133.89.

Slapped Heartbeat

Pat's 83.25 is the fourth highest score to earn Slapped Heartbeat, and just the thirteenth time it's happened with a score above 80.

Weekly MVP

Josh Allen put up 42.55 for Ed.

Dud of the Week

Adam Thielen (0.27) had just two receiving yards for Mike (who still won his game!).

Start of the Week

Rob played the Patriots defense (14.00) over the Bills (zero) and won by less than three points.

Misplay of the Week

We'll get to Kevin's defense misplay very soon, but here we'll highlight Rabbit, who played Josh Downs (5.73) over Rashee Rice (20.27) and Devin Singletary (9.00) and lost by less than three points.

Pickup of the Week

Rob picked up the Patriots defense, while Mike picked up the Giants. The two hapless teams faced off in real life, and each defense scored exactly 14.00 in fantasy.

Blessed Cahoots

Mike R. won his game only because his opponent didn't play a defense.

D'Ernest D'oh

Did Kevin get bitten by Yahoo's "Start After Adding" option not always working correctly? Maybe, but regardless of the reason why, he picked up the Panthers defense (4.00), neglected to actually start them, and lost by exactly three points.

Playoff Scenarios

Ed has clinched a playoff berth.

Ed clinches a bye with:

  • a win.

Rob clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

Babel clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win.

Pulley clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Mike R. loss AND a Dave loss AND a Scott loss.

Matt clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Mike R. loss AND a Dave loss AND a Scott loss.

Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Mike R. loss AND a Dave loss AND a Scott loss.

(Kevin, Richie, and Derrek have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Because the two teams within a game of him (Rob and Babel) play each other, Ed merely needs to get his tenth win to wrap up a bye. He cannot clinch a first-place finish with a win, as the winner of Rob vs. Babel could - and probably would, due to his low point total - pass him next week if they win and he loses.

Rob and Babel are in the exact same boat. The only way either misses the playoffs is by losing both their remaining games (which means the winner of their week 13 game will clinch a spot), Mike R. winning both of his, and Mike R. passing them in points. That last element is riskier for Babel, who is already behind all the 7-5 teams in points and is less than 54 points ahead of Mike. Rob, on the other hand, is ahead of all teams except for Pulley in points, including having more than a 100 point cushion on Mike. All tolled, this means Rob has effectively locked up a spot no matter what, while Babel just needs to put up some respectable scores even if he doesn't win again. Both also have realistic hopes of getting a bye or even finishing first overall, should Ed stumble.

The trio of 7-5 teams have the same on-paper clinching scenarios, but different confidence levels in actually making the playoffs.

Pulley is the most interesting. His point total is nearly 50 points ahead of the second highest in the league, which means that he'll almost certainly win any tiebreakers if it comes to that. So if he wins out, Ed loses out, and Rob beats Babel this week, he's got a good shot at entering the playoffs as the #1 seed. But he's only a game up on the three teams just outside the playoffs, so if he loses to both Rabbit and Rob - which wouldn't be that shocking, given how good they are - he'll fall behind any of Mike R., Dave, and Scott that finish off the year 2-0. This all makes Pulley the most likely among the 7-5 teams to get a bye, but also the most likely to fall out of the playoffs entirely.

Matt has the same concerns with losing out as Pulley, but his schedule - Kevin and Mike R. - is much easier. There are ways he could get a bye and even the #1 overall seed, but it's quite unlikely. But based on his schedule, he should feel very confident he'll make the playoffs.

Rabbit is only a few points behind Matt, so much of the previous paragraph is true for him, too. However, his schedule is definitely more difficult, as he plays Pulley this week before facing rival Derrek in week 14.

Mike R. is in the best position of the 6-6 teams by far, with nearly 100 points more than Dave and nearly 150 more than Scott. He also knows that if he wins out, he'll do no worse than tie Matt at 8-6, as they play each other in week 14. At that point, the margin of victory could be important, as Matt currently has nearly 75 points on him.

Dave and Scott both lag so far back in points that their only realistic path is to finish 2-0 while at least one of Pulley, Matt, and Rabbit to finishes 0-2. At that point, Mike R. could still be in front of them, and they might still be dealing with each other (Dave leads Scott by almost 60 points). The good news for both is that they have very easy schedules: Dave plays Richie and Kevin, Scott plays Derrek and Richie.

Week 13 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-5, 4th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 7-5, 6th)

All-time series tied, 8-8.

  • Pulley still plays: Rob
  • Rabbit still plays: Derrek

Neither Pulley nor Rabbit has fallen below sixth place to this point in the season, but - as detailed above - both run the risk of missing the playoffs completely if they don't manage to win one of their last two games. That makes this week's contest quite important: the winner is effectively in the playoffs, while the loser will have to worry about beating their rival in week 14 even more than usual.

For Pulley, that means it's not a great week for Stefon Diggs to have his bye. As of writing time, he'll ask Courtland Sutton (@HOU) to fill in, which isn't the worst fallback plan. Justin Herbert (@NE) and Derrick Henry (vs. IND) each have had one great and one poor game since joining the MondoSquad, though Raheem Mostert (@WAS) just keeps placing among the top RBs each week.

Rabbit saw Tony Pollard (vs. SEA) get back on track the past two weeks, which is encouraging for him. Christian McCaffrey (@PHI), of course, is the best fantasy player around, but Terry McLaurin (vs. MIA) has fallen off a bit in recent weeks. It might come down to the choice between Jordan Love (vs. KC) and Geno Smith (@DAL) at QB.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Other Blingamatches

Rob for Today (Rob, 8-4, 2nd) vs. Keep Calm & Dameon (Babel, 8-4, 3rd)

All-time series tied, 9-9.

  • Rob still plays: Pulley
  • Babel still plays: Ed

It's tempting to say this year's Dickran Duel could decide the second bye, but if you look at the standings and remaining schedule, the victor will probably still have to win next week to skip the quarterfinals.

Rob's point total means he shouldn't have to worry about missing the playoffs. That's a good thing, because he traded himself into a bye week from hell this week; Saquon Barkley, Gus Edwards, T.J. Hockenson, and Cole Kmet are all off. He'll need Dak Prescott (vs. SEA) to continue his hot streak (four games with 29 or more points in his last five) if he wants that Leon Redbone record.

Babel's done with byes, but he does have an injury concern in the form of Aaron Jones (vs. KC); he'd much rather play Jones than Ezekiel Elliott (vs. LAC), I'm sure. Both Travis Kelce (@GB) and A.J. Brown (vs. SF) have been a little disappointing since he traded for them - is this the week they re-hit their stride?

Pick: Keep Calm & Dameon.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-6, 7th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-7, 11th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 6-5.

  • Mike R. still plays: Matt
  • Schertz still plays: Pat

This is just the third time in the history of the Gentleman's Tussle that the Mikes have a collective sub-.500 record. (The other two were in week 11, 2016 and week 12, 2017.)

Mike R. traded away Justin Herbert to give himself a weekly choice at QB: Sam Howell (vs. MIA) or Jared Goff (@NO)? Was Travis Etienne, Jr. (vs. CIN) worth this headache? So far, no. Adam Thielen (@TAM) has nowhere to go but up from week 12, at least.

Another point in Mike R.'s favor is that Schertz is really hit hard by byes this week; Justin Fields, D.J. Moore, and Tyler Bass are all out. This means he'll likely resort to Derek Carr (vs. DET) and one of Jameson Williams (@NO) or Michael Wilson (@PIT) as starters. The good news for Schertz is that injuries to Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker III mean that Zack Moss (@TEN) and Zach Charbonnet (@DAL) are in for heavy usage. Add that to Kyren Williams (vs. CLE), Najee Harris (vs. ARI), De'Von Achane (@WAS), and Kareem Hunt (@LAR), and Schertz has an abundance of choice for his RB and two flex spots.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Live Commish (Ed, 9-3, 1st) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-7, 10th)

Ed leads all-time series, 9-5.

  • Ed still plays: Babel
  • Pat still plays: Schertz

Ed just needs a win to get a free pass to the semifinals in his return to the postseason - a goal that takes a hit with Josh Allen on bye and Jonathan Taylor injured. He covered the former by trading for Trevor Lawrence (vs. CIN) a few weeks ago, but the latter will require some digging. It would help if Austin Ekeler (@NE) and Breece Hall (vs. ATL) both bounced back from poor week 12 showings.

That all said, Ed's run of good fortune might continue, as Pat is hit far worse by byes. Lamar Jackson, Davante Adams, Jordan Addison, and Dalton Kincaid are all out this week. And Chris Olave (vs. DET) is in the concussion protocol. Alvin Kamara (vs. DET) might have to reach back into his past to do enough for Pat to pull the upset this week.

Pick: Live Commish.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-5, 5th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 3-9, 14th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 12-7.

  • Matt still plays: Mike R.
  • Kevin still plays: Dave

A win doesn't clinch anything for Matt, but it does make it extremely unlikely he would miss out. Jalen Hurts (vs. SF) has a tough matchup, but does that matter much for a player of his caliber? Tyreek Hill (@WAS) should have a field day, and Deebo Samuel (@PHI) looked much better in week 12 than week 11.

Kevin's having a season to forget, but there is talent there. Jahmyr Gibbs (@NO) at times has looked like a true RB1. DeVonta Smith (vs. SF) has some highs. And Cooper Kupp (vs. CLE), though disappointing, is still Cooper Kupp.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Double Digits (Dave, 6-6, 8th) vs. Ed Gross (Richie, 3-9, 13th)

Richie leads all-time series, 7-5.

  • Dave still plays: Kevin
  • Richie still plays: Scott

Dave finds himself on the edge of the playoffs despite punting his season in the middle of week 11 (in which he was victorious!). Another big game from Bijan Robinson (@NYJ) could move him even closer, though that's not a nice matchup. Kyler Murray and James Conner (both @PIT) share the same concerns.

Richie, like Kevin, isn't going to be telling many stories from this year. Russell Wilson (@HOU) gives him a high floor at QB, while Garrett Wilson (vs. ATL), George Pickens (vs. ARI), and Puka Nacua (vs. CLE) give him a high ceiling at WR.

Pick: Ed Gross.

Slap it Again! (Scott, 6-6, 9th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-8, 12th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 5-0.

  • Scott still plays: Richie
  • Derrek still plays: Rabbit

Scott is another contender that will deal with byes this week, as James Cook and Josh Jacobs aren't available. Patrick Mahomes II (@GB) is, though, and I'm sure Scott would love it if he stuck it to his previous team. Michael Pittman, Jr. (@TEN) has also been sneakily a great acquisition for Scott.

Derrek's six year playoff streak has officially come to an end, but you know he loves to play spoiler. A win this week would put and end to Scott's hopes, and if things break right, he could do the same to his rival, Rabbit, next week. His C.J. Stroud-Tank Dell (both vs. DEN) stack going big would be a great way to pull some upsets.

Pick: Slap it Again!

Closing Thoughts

Not only did Ed end his nine year playoff drought this week, he also reached first place in the standings for the first time since the end of the 2011 season. Since then, he had played 156 regular season weeks without being in first place, which amazingly ties Babel for the most weeks between times in first (week 13, 2008 until week 1, 2021).

Two other franchises(*) have gone 100 or more weeks without being in first. Kevin went 105 weeks from the creation of the Blingaleague until he reached the top of the standings in week 2, 2016 and Derrek once went 100 weeks exactly, from week 4, 2010 to week 1, 2018.

(*) Note that this entire section ignores the four teams that have never been in first place: Pat has played 196 weeks, Richie 157, Scott 79, and Katie 13.