The Sanderson Gazette - 2023-12-04 - Turnover
Five teams have effectively locked up playoff spots: Ed, Babel, Matt, Rabbit, and Rob. The remaining spot will go to one of Pulley, Mike R., or Scott.
The three new playoff teams (Ed, Babel, and Matt) would already tie the Blingaleague record for the most teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous season, and if the final spot doesn't go to Mike, we'll have an unprecedented four new playoff teams this year!
Week 13 Recap
Babel def. Rob, 129.86-102.59
Babel easily won this year's Dickran Duel despite both sides cracking triple digits. Nico Collins (31.47) was Babel's leading scorer, quite a ways ahead of his #2 (Tua Tagovailoa, 22.00). Rob once again was led by Dak Prescott (29.25) and CeeDee Lamb (24.47), but none of his other offensive players scored more than 9.17 (A.J. Dillon).
Who gets the Redboner award? No one from Babel's team, as he won and his low scorer still put up 6.00 (Jake Moody). Instead, it'll go to the obvious choice, Juwan Johnson, who played but still scored zero for Rob.
Rabbit def. Pulley, 138.00-109.54
Rabbit once again relied on Thursday performers (DK Metcalf (35.87), Geno Smith (33.30), and Tony Pollard (14.80)) to get out to an early lead. After Sam LaPorta scored 24.67 during the early Sunday games, Rabs cemented his blowout win despite Terry McLaurin putting up a zero and the Dallas defense stumbling to -3.00.
Pulley got 25.33 from Joe Mixon on Monday night in a too-little-too-late effort. Justin Herbert's 10.10 was a big reason why he fell short.
Matt def. Kevin, 157.40-108.80
Matt blew up behind Deebo Samuel (35.67), Tyreek Hill (32.50), and Chuba Hubbard (22.40). Kevin got 31.60 from Brock Purdy and 18.80 from DeVonta Smith, but took a tough loss.
Ed def. Pat, 126.28-84.00
The commish clinched a bye thanks to Mike Evans (27.60), Trevor Lawrence (26.70), and the Atlanta defense (19.00). Pat's Saints - Alvin Kamara (24.83) and Chris Olave (15.87) - did great, but D'Andre Swift (2.23) and Justin Watson (zero) disappointed.
Mike R. def. Schertz, 115.03-72.08
Mike R. had already won the Gentleman's Tussle (and kept his playoff hopes alive) before Monday night, but Ja'Marr Chase (25.52) and Travis Etienne, Jr. (15.03) added big games just in case. Schertz got 18.00 from Kyren Williams, but didn't put much else together.
Scott def. Derrek, 78.77-59.64
Scott kept his playoff hopes alive with midseason acquisitions Michael Pittman, Jr. (20.00) and DeAndre Hopkins (16.40) leading the way. Skyy Moore may have scored just 0.67 for the victor in this one, but Tank Dell (zero) and Cade Otton (zero) did even worse for D.
Richie def. Dave, 106.11-67.39
Richie got big games from players he received in trades, Puka Nacua (23.40) and Rachaad White (17.33), and easily dispatched of Dave. The latter's three Cardinals - James Conner (22.50), Kyler Murray (12.25), and Marquise Brown (zero) - were good, mediocre, and bad.
Standings
- Ed, 10-3, 1,325.24 (b)
- Babel, 9-4, 1,437.24 (x)
- Matt, 8-5, 1,485.66
- Rabbit, 8-5, 1,459.05
- Rob, 8-5, 1,456.42
- Pulley, 7-6, 1,502.89
- Mike R., 7-6, 1,368.70
- Scott, 7-6, 1,182.63
- Dave, 6-7, 1,228.50
- Pat, 5-8, 1,264.76 (e)
- Schertz, 5-8, 1,242.18 (e)
- Richie, 4-9, 1,184.13 (e)
- Derrek, 4-9, 1,166.46 (e)
- Kevin, 3-10, 1,116.49 (e)
- (b) - clinched bye
- (x) - clinched playoff spot
- (e) - eliminated from playoff contention
Blingalytics Ratings
- Matt, 683
- Pulley, 670
- Rabbit, 665
- Rob, 626
- Babel, 614
- Mike R., 563
- Ed, 515
- Pat, 459
- Schertz, 415
- Dave, 400
- Scott, 370
- Richie, 365
- Derrek, 357
- Kevin, 299
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums
Matt's 157.40 earned him his first Blangums of the year.
Slapped Heartbeat
Derrek's 59.64 is just the third sub-60 score this year.
Weekly MVP
I'm going to make this a tie between DK Metcalf (35.87 for Rabbit) and Deebo Samuel (35.67 for Matt).
Dud of the Week
Pulley expected a lot more than 10.10 point games when he traded for Justin Herbert.
Start of the Week / Misplay of the Week
Our closest margin of the week was 19.13, so these will stay vacant.
Pickup of the Week
The Atlanta defense scored 19.00 for Ed.
Blessed Cahoots
Scott had the fourth worst score this week but won and kept his playoff dream alive.
Playoff Scenarios
Ed has clinched a bye.
Ed clinches first place with:
- a win.
Babel has clinched a playoff berth.
Babel clinches a bye with:
- a win
OR
- a Matt loss AND a Rabbit loss AND a Rob loss.
Babel clinches first place with:
- a win.
Matt clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win
OR
- a Pulley loss AND a Scott loss.
Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win
OR
- losses by two of Pulley, Mike R., and Scott.
Rob clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win
OR
- a Mike R. loss AND a Scott loss.
Pulley clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win
AND
- a Mike R. loss OR a Scott loss.
Mike R. clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win AND a Pulley loss AND a Scott loss.
Scott clinches a playoff berth with:
- a win AND a Pulley loss AND a Mike R. loss.
(Kevin, Derrek, Richie, Schertz, and Pat have been eliminated from playoff contention.)
Playoff Scenarios, Part II
Ed and Babel are playing for first place. If Ed loses, he can't fall below second place, but he will fall below Babel, who's already ahead of him in points.
Babel likely would fall out of second place with a loss, though there is a chance he'd still sneak into the bye. The most straightforward way is for all of Matt, Rabbit, and Rob to lose so that they all have fewer wins, but Babel trails the three of them by 49, 22, and 20, respectively, so there are some unlikely scenarios in which he loses, but passes everyone who wins. Babel cannot fall below fifth place.
Matt, Rabbit, and Rob are all generally in the same situation. They haven't technically clinched, as the current seventh and eight place teams (Mike R. and Scott) can catch them in wins, but they have enough of a point cushion over seventh place that they can't realistically be caught.
Instead, they'll be jockeying for seeding and, should Babel lose, the second bye. Matt has a 27 point lead on Rabbit and a 29 point lead on Rob, so he's in the best shape, while the other two are basically even.
Pulley has more points than anyone else, even after Matt's week 13 Team Blangums, so all he really needs is a win. He'd for sure pass Rob in the standings with that (since they play each other), and neither Mike R. nor Scott has a chance of catching him in points. But if Pulley loses, he will definitely need Mike R. and Scott to both lose, as either would pass him with a victory.
Mike R. is actually closer to Pulley in points than Scott is to him, so he really only needs a win plus a Pulley loss to sneak back into the playoffs. And if he does lose, he'll stay behind Pulley no matter what and be on the outside.
Scott is way behind every other contender in points, but he has a reasonable shot at winning while Pulley and Mike R. lose, especially when you look at whom each is playing in week 14.
Finally, Dave is technically still alive. He's so far behind everyone except Scott in points that he won't make the playoffs no matter what, though.
Other Scenarios
Kevin has a path out of last place: win and outscore a losing Derrek by 50 or more. Kev did just outscore Derrek by 49, so this is possible. Kevin can also catch Richie in a similar fashion, but he's down 68 points there.
Kevin has avoided the cellar since dwelling there in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015 before winning the championship the next year. Derrek finished in last the following year and had made the playoffs every year since. Richie, despite four bottom-four finishes from 2016-2022, hasn't come in last since his expansion season.
Week 14 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
Live Commish (Ed, 10-3, 1st) vs. Keep Calm & Dameon (Babel, 9-4, 2nd)
Babel leads all-time series, 13-6.
This is the first time in Blingaleague history that our first and second place teams have met in the final week of the regular season. (First place has met third place once, in 2012, when #3 Matt defeated #1 Mike R. to steal a bye. Last place and second-to-last place have also met once, in 2017, when #13 Matt defeated #14 Mike R. to assert his ongoing dominance.)
Ed's bid for the regular season championship will rely on <checks notes> Jerry Jeudy (@LAC) and Cedric Tillman (vs. JAC). Sure, he gets Josh Allen (@KC) back from his bye this week, and Mike Evans (@ATL) has been fantastic, but unless Austin Ekeler (vs. DEN) and Breece Hall (vs. HOU) break out of their recent funks, Ed is a longshot to stay in first.
That's good news for Babel, whose WRs keep humming along. At WR, A.J. Brown (@DAL), Keenan Allen (vs. DEN), Brandon Aiyuk (vs. SEA), and Nico Collins (@NYJ) are as formidable a foursome ever featured among fourteen fantasy football friends. Tua Tagovailoa (vs. TEN) and Travis Kelce (vs. BUF) add strong players at QB and TE, and even Ezekiel Elliott (@PIT) is now set to get the bulk of the RB work for New England. It really looks like Babel will get that Timberwolves hat.
Pick: Keep Calm & Dameon.
Other Blingamatches
Rob for Today (Rob, 8-5, 5th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 7-6, 6th)
Rob leads all-time series, 11-10.
The is the eighth time - including six straight from 2013 through 2018 - that the Clash of Hatred will feature two teams both currently in playoff position. But what's never happened, and is on the table this year, is the winner knocking the loser out of the playoffs.
Rob's five game winning streak was snapped last week, but Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb (both vs. PHI) remained hot. Saquon Barkley (vs. GB) is back, but Calvin Ridley (@CLE) will likely take a hit with Trevor Lawrence being injured.
Pulley's gotten mixed results from trade acquisitions Justin Herbert (vs. DEN) and Derrick Henry (@MIA), who have three strong games between them in the three weeks they've been on his team. Joe Mixon (vs. IND) has been on a tear lately, though, and Courtland Sutton (@LAC) is a touchdown machine.
Pick: Rob for Today.
Harrison Hammers (Matt, 8-5, 3rd) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 7-6, 7th)
Matt leads all-time series, 15-6.
Matt shouldn't be worrying about his playoff prospects, but he can continue to end his rival's season in heartbreak. Deebo Samuel (vs. SEA) has been a monster the past two weeks, while Tyreek Hill (vs. TEN) has been one all year. Beyond those two and Jalen Hurts (@DAL), Matt does have his usual question marks; it's valid to wonder how many of Chuba Hubbard (@NO), Tyjae Spears (@MIA), and Isaiah Likely (vs. LAR) will put up respectable games.
Mike will need all he can get from the guys he went out and traded for: Ja'Marr Chase (vs. IND), Travis Etienne, Jr. (@CLE), and Jared Goff (@CHI). Adam Thielen (@NO) has been awful lately; if he can turn it around, Mike could sneak into the playoffs.
Pick: Harrison Hammers.
Slap it Again! (Scott, 7-6, 8th) vs. Ed Gross (Richie, 4-9, 12th)
Richie leads all-time series, 5-1.
Scott, remarkably, has a very real shot at making the playoffs. First, he'll have to end his five game losing streak against his rival. Patrick Mahomes II (vs. BUF) has an opponent that should lead to good results, while Michael Pittman, Jr. (@CIN) just consistently produces. Thursday could be huge for Scott, as the Steelers defense (vs. NE) has the best opponent you could hope for.
Richie just ended Dave's playoff hopes behind Puka Nacua (@BAL) and Rachaad White (@ATL). Can he do it again vs. Scott? Russell Wilson (@LAC) has a great matchup, but it's never good to have two parts of the Jets passing game (Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin (both vs. HOU)) in your lineup.
Pick: Slap it Again!
Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 8-5, 4th) vs. D 's Nuts (Derrek, 4-9, 13th)
Derrek leads all-time series, 10-9.
There's very little at stake here. Rabbit can jump up into bye position if he passes Matt in points and stays ahead of Rob, all while Ed beats Babel. Jordan Love's (@NYG) been hot lately and gets to play against the Giants. DK Metcalf (@SF) and Christian McCaffrey (vs. SEA) face off for the second time in three weeks. And Tony Pollard (vs. PHI) has got some of his mojo back.
Derrek is coming off his worst week of the year, and while Isiah Pacheco (vs. BUF) has been great, the rest of his team is quite iffy.
Pick: Pralines & Dick.
Double Digits (Dave, 6-7, 9th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 3-10, 14th)
Kevin leads all-time series, 12-6.
Dave is down to Tutu Atwell (@BAL) and Roschon Johnson (vs. DET). Kevin needs to find a replacement for Rhamondre Stevenson (@PIT), stat. This is the first time since 2019 neither of these two rivals is in playoff position when they meet.
Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.
The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-8, 10th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-8, 11th)
Pat leads all-time series, 6-5.
Pat's lost five of his last seven, Schertz seven of his last eight. I'll take Lamar Jackson (vs. LAR) over Justin Fields (vs. DET).
Pick: The Vistas are Back.
Closing Thoughts
Here is a completely pointless fun fact: week 13 was just the second time we've had two teams (Rabbit and Pat) score an exact integer (138.00 and 84.00, respectively). The previous time was week 12, 2017.