Keepers

The big story with keepers this year is just how many first-round players were kept. Among the 14 players that have first round ADPs this year (per FantasyPros), a whopping 11 are being kept!

Schertz

• Kyren Williams, 8.14 (ADP: 2.01)
• De'Von Achane, 9.01 (ADP: 2.06)

Schertz hangs onto a pair of players that just barely missed the aforementioned first round cutoff. Even if he surprises us all and doesn't take Christian McCaffrey at 1.01, he'll enter the season with a strong RB room for very little cost.

The downside is that Williams and Achane both have histories of injuries; Schertz will hope to avoid that, otherwise he could be in for a repeat of last year.

Kevin

• Jahmyr Gibbs, 2.13 (ADP: 1.13)
• DeVonta Smith, 4.13 (ADP: 4.05)

Kevin's season to forget at least netted him a first round talent for Gibbs. He'll also keep Smith for the second straight season.

This is a good place to discuss how the top-heavy keepers this year make comparing keeper cost to ADP somewhat misleading. Kevin is spending the 27th overall pick on paper to keep Gibbs, whom ADP considers to be the 13th best. That's good, but not amazing. However, once you factor in the other players that have been kept (and the people giving up picks before 2.13 for their own keepers), Kevin would be selecting the 35th best player by ADP. This effect is even more pronounced with Smith; pick 4.13, which would be the 55th selection without keepers, will wind up being the place to draft the 68th best player available in Blingaleague this year.

Pat

• Chris Olave, 5.03 (ADP: 2.10)
• Dalton Kincaid, 8.12 (ADP: 4.10)

Pat's keepers aren't quite as valuable as Kevin's, but he spent quite a bit less on them. That equates to a bit more surplus that it does for Kev, which could means Pat - who was better than his record in 2023 - should have some playoff hopes.

Dave

• Bijan Robinson, 1.04 (ADP: 1.05)
• Justin Jefferson, 2.11 (ADP: 1.06)

Dave made a big play to acquire two first-round players late last season, and it pays off now. While Robinson looks like a net negative, based on the logic in Kevin's section, Dave's true pick there is more like 1.09. But even if that wasn't so, keeping both brings in two players with top-six ADPs, something no one else will be able to say they have when the draft is over.

Derrek

• C.J. Stroud, 8.10 (ADP: 4.04)
• Tank Dell, 9.05 (ADP: 5.09)

Derrek's 0-4 start in 2023 meant he had all season to acquire keepers. In the end, it looks like he preferred the lower cost of Stroud and Dell when compared to other options like Drake London and Isiah Pacheco.

Richie

• Garrett Wilson, 7.06 (ADP: 1.12)
• Puka Nacua, 9.06 (ADP: 1.14)

Based on cost vs. ADP, it's Richie who brings in the most surplus value with his keepers. (This shouldn't be surprising, as he'll be spending two mid-round picks on first-round players). That bodes well for putting his poor 2023 behind him.

Scott

• James Cook, 5.07 (ADP: 3.11)
• Anthony Richardson, 8.08 (ADP: 4.09)

Scott just barely missed making the playoffs for the first time last year. It makes sense to run it back with one of his best players, Cook, and hope that Richardson delivers on the top five fantasy QB potential he flashed before his injury last year to push his franchise over the hump.

Pulley

• Diontae Johnson, 5.09 (ADP: 7.02)
• Raheem Mostert, 7.09 (ADP: 6.05)

Johnson is this year's only keeper that comes out with slightly negative surplus value, even after accounting for all the other kept players (his ADP is 86, while his 5.09 cost is the equivalent of pick 77 this year). But Mostert provides a nice chunk of value, and could be worth far more than his ADP if the Dolphins use him at the goal line like they did last year. If they do, Pulley should have no problem returning the playoffs.

Babel

• Brandon Aiyuk, 4.05 (ADP: 3.05)
• Nico Collins, 9.10 (ADP: 3.01)

Babel had a disappointing finish last year, which included trading away Puka Nacua. But he'll bring back Collins, who was probably the best overall keeper of 2023, and Aiyuk, whose current ADP is depressed by his contract uncertainty.

Rabbit

• Sam LaPorta, 9.11 (ADP: 2.14)
• Rashee Rice, 11.11 (ADP: 6.11)

Rabbit just missed out on third place in 2023, and he'll head into 2024 with his first eight picks ready to use. LaPorta's ADP is just two spots below Travis Kelce's(!), and Rice is well worth the cost, even if he winds up getting suspended.

Matt

• Tyreek Hill, 1.12 (ADP: 1.03)
• Tyjae Spears, 9.12 (ADP: 8.03)

Matt returned the playoffs last year thanks to Hill, whom he'll keep as a high-value/high-cost player. For his other choice, he went with low cost, which provides value even if Spears isn't especially exciting.

Ed

• Breece Hall, 1.13 (ADP: 1.04)
• Jonathan Taylor, 2.02 (ADP: 1.10)

Ed's runner-up team can't quite make the same claim as Dave in terms of having two top-half-of-the-first players already, but he's close. Of course, he's also spending a little bit more, so the surplus value comes out similar.

Rob

• CeeDee Lamb, 1.14 (ADP: 1.02)
• Saquon Barkley, 2.01 (ADP: 1.11)

Rob narrowly beat Ed in Blingabowl XVI, and he narrowly has a little more keeper value for what is basically the same cost.

The Draft

The draft will be this Sunday, August 25, at noon.

Closing Thoughts

Looking forward to another great Blingayear with you all!

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