The Sanderson Gazette - 2024-09-25 - Tough Losses

Does it feel like we've had an uptick in games this year where the loser would have won several of the other matchups that week?

That feeling is correct. Through three weeks, here are the number of losing teams that had a top five score for the week. As you can see, 2024 has more than any previous post-expansion season.

  • 2012: 2
  • 2013: 4
  • 2014: 3
  • 2015: 3
  • 2017: 3
  • 2019: 3
  • 2020: 2
  • 2021: 3
  • 2022: 3
  • 2023: 3
  • 2024: 6

Now, speaking of losing teams that ranked high for the week...

Week 3 Recap

Ed def. Pat, 134.07-128.26

Wow, what a brutal loss for Pat. The surprise 2-0 team got big weeks from Derrick Henry (30.17), Malik Nabers (22.80), and Aaron Jones (22.33) and entered Monday with a thirty point lead. But then, Jayden Daniels (29.60) had a huge game - which also caused Pat's defense (Cincinnati) to dip to -4.00 - pushing Pat from Team Blangums to a loss.

This is the eighteenth time the second highest scoring team of the week lost.

Scott def. Kevin, 115.58-102.58

Kevin also rallied hard on Monday night, getting 27.73 from Ja'Marr Chase and 17.00 from Zack Moss, but he couldn't complete his own comeback because Scott got 16.30 from James Cook in the same window. Beyond that, Scott's special teams - the Jets defense (18.00) and Harrison Butker (11.80) - outpaced Kevin's - the 49ers (3.00) and Daniel Carlson (1.00) - by a lot.

Schertz def. Richie, 99.29-92.47

Richie also rallied on Monday night, but Joe Burrow's 27.60 wasn't quite enough to catch Schertz. The victor got 30.50 from Kyren Williamsand 19.87 from DK Metcalf to move to 2-1 on the year.

Rob def. Babel, 101.05-72.39

The Dickran Duel wasn't competitive at all, even after Josh Allen put up 33.55 on Monday night for Babel. Rob got 32.15 from his own QB, Dak Prescott, and 29.90 from Saquon Barkley.

This year's Redboner award could go to Travis Kelce (4.00 for Babel), but I'm going to put forth another dud on Babel's roster: Ka'imi Fairbairn. The Texans kicker scored a big fat zero after averaging 19.85 the first two weeks.

Rabbit def. Mike R., 118.50-75.35

Rabbit cruised behind Lamar Jackson (27.80), the Packers defense (23.00), and Rashee Rice (20.77). Mike stumbled due to Mike Evans (2.27), Trey McBride (3.33), and Tony Pollard (3.40).

Pulley def. Derrek, 88.17-50.69

Pulley earned his first win of the year thanks to Diontae Johnson (22.27) and the Seahawks defense (15.00). Derrek was easily dispatched, with no players in double figures and extreme duds from Dustin Hopkins (zero) and Isaiah Likely (0.53).

Dave def. Matt, 73.72-60.07

We'll end with a game that featured dueling zero point TEs, Mark Andrews for Dave and Juwan Johnson for Matt.

Trades

Trade between Mike R. and Richie

Mike R. received:

  • Kirk Cousins - from Richie - keeper cost: 9th

Richie received:

  • Cam Akers - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 9th

Richie won't get Misplay of the Week for it, but a negligent lineup decision led to him making this desperation trade. He left Rhamondre Stevenson (0.30) in his flex spot, instead of starting the Thursday night RB at RB. As a result, when Joe Mixon was announced out, his choice was to make a move or swap in Miles Sanders at RB.

Rather than pickup the best free agent, he spent his backup QB (Cousins) to grab Mixon's handcuff (Akers). That worked out to the tune of 9.17, but we won't be able to judge this trade fully until we see how Cousins does when Mike taps him in to cover a bye week.

Standings

Pulley: "Pat and Matt traded roles for 2024 I guess."

Ed: "They peed in the same fountain."

Pat: "He’s been trying to track it down for weeks, I’m not looking at all."

  1. Rob, 3-0, 326.55
  2. Scott, 2-1, 345.27
  3. Rabbit, 2-1, 318.85
  4. Schertz, 2-1, 302.37
  5. Pat, 2-1, 301.35
  6. Babel, 2-1, 300.64
  7. Dave, 2-1, 292.75
  8. Richie, 2-1, 286.74
  9. Ed, 1-2, 321.50
  10. Mike R., 1-2, 316.51
  11. Pulley, 1-2, 253.38
  12. Derrek, 1-2, 216.59
  13. Kevin, 0-3, 260.65
  14. Matt, 0-3, 237.90

Blingalytics Ratings

"Wait... do you have the rankings backwards here?" - Scott

  1. Scott, 787
  2. Rob, 694
  3. Rabbit, 647
  4. Ed, 615
  5. Mike R., 579
  6. Schertz, 559
  7. Babel, 537
  8. Pat, 523
  9. Dave, 480
  10. Richie, 475
  11. Kevin, 348
  12. Pulley, 300
  13. Matt, 261
  14. Derrek, 196

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Ed's 134.07 was enough to take home Team Blangums this week.

Slapped Heartbeat

Derrek's 50.69 was his worst score since exactly ten years ago and earned him his second Slapped Heartbeat of the year

Weekly MVP

Jayden Daniels's 29.60 powered Ed's Monday night comeback and Team Blangums win.

Dud of the Week

The Bengals defense scored -4.00 for Pat.

Start of the Week

While there were some close games this week, none of their winners got there due to a smart start/sit decision.

Misplay of the Week

Pat had a couple contenders, but he's suffered enough already. Instead, we'll reward Matt's decision to play Baker Mayfield (6.65) over Brock Purdy (28.20) in a very winnable game.

Pickup of the Week

Scott grabbed Jalen Nailor and cashed in his 10.43 points.

Blessed Cahoots

Dave had the fourth lowest score of the week, but still won.

Pryor Play of the Week

There are plenty of candidates for Pryor Play this week. Amari Cooper burst out for 23.47 for Ed. Diontae Johnson erupted for 22.27 for Pulley. Dallas Goedert exploded for 22.67 for Richie.

But we'll give this to the highest scorer among the previously-disappointing cohort: Ja'Marr Chase, who scored 27.73 for Kevin.

D'Ernest D'oh

Ed used a waiver claim on Jauan Jennings, but didn't start him. He wound up not needing Jennings's 41.33, but it was still a silly move.

Week 4 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 2-1, 3rd) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 2-1, 4th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 9-4.

Rabbit is above .500 after week three for the fourth straight season thanks mainly to Lamar Jackson (vs. BUF) and Rashee Rice (@LAC). But he does have one huge - and unexpected - hole: TE. Sam LaPorta (vs. SEA) hasn't scored more than 6.00 in a game this year and now carries the "questionable" tag. With Jaylen Waddle (vs. TEN), Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. WAS), and Jameson Williams (vs. SEA) all capable of putting up duds, Rabbit probably needs to get a higher ceiling from the TE spot to return to his glory days.

I suppose Schertz technically does have a higher ceiling at TE so far, as Mike Gesicki (@CAR) scored 6.27 this past week. But prior to that, Taysom Hill (@ATL) was even worse than LaPorta. Outside of TE, Schertz - who is 2-1 for the fourth straight year and sixth time in the past seven - is a lot like Rabs: he's got some players that put up big games or duds in Xavier Worthy (@LAC), De'Von Achane (vs. TEN), and, to a lesser extent, Jalen Hurts (@TAM). It's good that Kyren Williams (@CHI) has been getting consistently heavy usage.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Other Blingamatches

Keep Calm & Keon (Babel, 2-1, 6th) vs. Ed Gross (Richie, 2-1, 8th)

Babel leads all-time series, 9-5.

Babel came crashing back down to Earth, falling from first to sixth place. It certainly doesn't help that he's been getting minimal value from keeper Brandon Aiyuk (vs. NE) or - stop me if you've heard this before - the TE position, where Travis Kelce (@LAC) has just 9.30 points for the season so far. But Josh Allen (@BAL) and Nico Collins (vs. JAC) are capable of carrying this whole team on their back, so Babel shouldn't be too worried.

Richie also came crashing back down, at least in terms of the win-loss column, and slid from third to eighth. Joe Burrow (@CAR) and Dallas Goedert (@TAM) looked lively, at least, which means Richie's biggest problem has been K, where Greg Zuerlein (vs. DEN) hasn't scored more than 6.30 points. Getting double digits from K might not solve Richie's problems on its own, but it'd be a start.

Pick: Keep Calm & Keon.

Let him Cook! (Scott, 2-1, 2nd) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 1-2, 12th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 5-1.

Scott is 2-1 for the first time in four years, in second place, and leads the league in points and expected wins. He's been doing this with multiple serious weaknesses, too! His QB, Anthony Richardson (vs. PIT), failed to put up 20 points in the past two weeks combined. On top of that, his top two WRs, A.J. Brown (@TAM) and Deebo Samuel, Sr. (vs. NE), have missed half the season's games so far. But Scott is sitting in a strong position because James Cook (@BAL) has been excellent, and very quietly, so has David Montgomery (vs. SEA).

Derrek, on the other hand, is dead last in points and expected wins; by those metrics, this is his worst start in nine years! (By record, however, it's his worst start since last year.) Travis Etienne, Jr. (@HOU) hasn't delivered on his draft capital, but he also hasn't been outright bad; the winners of that category are D.J. Moore (vs. LAR) and keeper Tank Dell (vs. JAC), who haven't cracked double figures yet. Some good news? D's Browns special teamers, Dustin Hopkins and their defense (both @LV), have a really encouraging matchup this week. Will that be enough to pull an upset?

Pick: D's Nuts.

Double Digits (Dave, 2-1, 7th) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 1-2, 10th)

Dave leads all-time series, 12-5.

Dave's 2-1, but can't be that happy with his team's middling performance overall. He's yet another team that is getting diddly squat from the TE position, where Mark Andrews (vs. BUF) recently hit rock bottom with a healthy zero and has failed to score ten points in total across three games. Another formerly-elite Raven, Justin Tucker (vs. BUF), has also been poor. However, Dave has hit on his keepers; Justin Jefferson (@GB) and Bijan Robinson (vs. NO) have been among the most consistently productive players in the whole league this season.

Mike may be a frustrating 1-2, but he's only a little bit worse than his 2023 team that rushed out to a 5-1 start and quite a bit better than his 2022 championship squad. Two places where improvement could lead to outsized results are at QB and, you guessed it, TE. Jared Goff (vs. SEA) has yet to score twenty points and Trey McBride (vs. WAS) only cracked ten points once, and that was due to a fluky fumble recovery TD. The good news for Mike is that Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. SEA) has bounced back nicely from a huge dud in week one and that Alvin Kamara (@ATL) looks like he's still in his prime.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 2-1, 5th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 1-2, 11th)

Pulley leads all-time series, 14-1.

Is this the year that Pat's fourteen-game losing streak vs. Pulley comes to an end?! If he truly has swapped fantasy prowess with Matt in a Freaky Friday-like incident, it could be! Pat's success so far has been driven by Derrick Henry's (vs. BUF) steady-to-amazing production and Malik Naber's (vs. DAL) role as the only good WR on the Giants. It helps that Aaron Jones (@GB) looks like his old self again. If Pat could just get solid play at QB - either from Caleb Williams (vs. LAR) or Derek Carr (@ATL) - he could be an actual contender instead of just hoping to sneak into the playoffs as the sixth seed.

Pulley's one of our most successful franchises, historically, but this year represents the third time in a four-year stretch that he's failed to score 270 points across the first three weeks. His QB play from Matt Stafford (@CHI) has been even worse than what Pat's group has delivered, and TE - yes, again - has been a total sinkhole for the Pullman. Diontae Johnson (vs. CIN) returning to form as a top twenty WR and J.K. Dobbins (vs. KC) continuing to be the (healthy) lead RB for the Chargers are requirements if Pulley wants to turn his season around.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 1-2, 9th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 0-3, 14th)

Matt leads all-time series, 10-9.

Ed's worst position has been WR, where he's gotten one starting slot fail to hit even six points in every week so far. But his QB (Jayden Daniels (@ARI)) has been excellent in two out of three weeks and his RBs (Breece Hall (vs. DEN), Jonathan Taylor (@NYG), and Brian Robinson, Jr. (@ARI)) have a single-game low of 9.83 between them, so he should have optimism about rallying from a 1-2 (and nearly 0-3) start.

Matt, though... oof. This isn't quite his worst start in franchise history, but it's very close to it. What could be seen as worrying is that there's not an obvious hole to fix, as every position has had at least one very good week except for Najee Harris (@IND), who has at least scored 7.57 or more each week. Some hope can come in the forms of Drake London (vs. NO) and Rome Odunze (vs. LAR), both drafted in the top ten in real life and both showing signs of being good fantasy WRs lately. If Tyreek Hill (vs. TEN) can prove he's QB-proof, there's a shot Matt can rally to a playoff berth. But he really needs a win this week, if so.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Rob for Today (Rob, 3-0, 1st) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 0-3, 13th)

Rob leads all-time series, 10-8.

Rob is 3-0 for the fifth time in franchise history - only Pulley has done it more times - and it's a well-earned record. Saquon Barkley (@TAM) is the overall fantasy MVP so far, Brock Bowers (vs. CLE) is the rare TE that hasn't scored below five points on the year, and Brandon Aubrey (@NYG) has scored more points than all but nineteen offensive players so far. If Rob has a weakness, it's less about a position overall and more about a few specific players, like D'Andre Swift (vs. LAR) and - compared to expectations - CeeDee Lamb (@NYG). The former has scored 5.00, 5.00, and 4.93 so far, while the latter has scored less than Allen Lazard, Rashid Shaheed (@ATL), and Quentin Johnston (vs. KC).

Kevin is 0-3 for the second straight year and the fourth time ever. He's notably better this year than last year, though, and the previous time he had an expected winning percentage between .300 and .400 at this point in the season, he wound up winning ten games. Counterintuitively, Patrick Mahomes II (@LAC) has made QB Kevin's biggest hole; the reigning Super Bowl MVP has topped out at 18.55 points this season. Ja'Marr Chase (@CAR) looks like he's back, though, and DeVonta Smith (@TAM) and Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. SEA) have provided consistent value, so it's not hard to see Kev turning this around like he did back in 2017.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Closing Thoughts

Pat's tough luck loss got me thinking about weekly second-place finishers. Here is a list of everyone and how frequently they were the best among non-Blangums teams (and their record in such games):

  • Allen: 6 (6-0)
  • Babel: 15 (14-1)
  • Dave: 22 (20-2)
  • Derrek: 21 (20-1)
  • Ed: 13 (10-3)
  • Kevin: 11 (10-1)
  • Matt: 18 (17-1)
  • Mike R.: 8 (8-0)
  • Pat: 7 (6-1)
  • Pulley: 17 (16-1)
  • Rabbit: 25 (23-2)
  • Richie: 8 (7-1)
  • Rob: 19 (17-2)
  • Schertz: 20 (19-1)
  • Scott: 4 (3-1)