The Sanderson Gazette - 2024-11-20 - The Great Separation

This week's results made the playoff picture much clearer. Five teams are 7-4 or better, and the lone 6-5 team (Mike R.) is a full game up on seventh place and leads the league in total points.

Week 11 Recap

Schertz def. Kevin, 140.65-104.73

Ja'Marr Chase (22.00) was never going to follow up last week's huge score for Kevin, but even if he had, it wouldn't have mattered. That's because Taysom Hill put up a whopping 35.37 for Schertz. Kevin actually had the only other twenty-point players - Sam Darnold (25.10) and Jahmyr Gibbs (20.10) - while Schertz's next best score came from De'Von Achane (17.57).

Dave def. Rabbit, 104.51-99.78

Dave continued his hot streak and handed Rabbit his sixth straight loss, but it wasn't easy. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 33.07 led the way for the victor, but Russell Wilson (6.35) and Mark Andrews (2.93) were huge disappointments. Rabs got 22.73 from Jameson Williams and 16.20 from Chase Brown, but Lamar Jackson (15.95) finally looked mortal, which more or less has sealed his fate for the season.

Rob def. Pat, 135.76-106.44

Rob bounced back from his putrid week 10 in a big way, coming a Brandon Aubrey (5.30) miss from stealing Team Blangums on Monday night. Saquon Barkley (33.53) and Tee Higgins (25.73) led the way for our first place team. Meanwhile, Pat's once-promising season is circling the drain; while new acquisition Breece Hall (25.53) was outstanding, formerly reliable Derrick Henry (10.50) and Aaron Jones (4.43) came in well below projections.

Richie def. Ed, 131.43-88.42

Richie rode huge games from Joe Mixon (34.77), Joe Burrow (31.10), Cooper Kupp (26.13), and Chris Boswell (25.00) to a blowout win. Only Jordan Love (22.35) broke the twenty point barrier for Ed, who'll now need a miracle to return to the postseason.

Matt def. Scott, 119.05-64.87

Matt won his seventh straight thanks to David Montgomery (22.17) and the Houston defense (21.00). Kyle Pitts (1.20) and Deebo Samuel, Sr. (2.83) were huge busts for Scott.

Mike R. def. Derrek, 113.09-91.99

Only Jared Goff (38.70) and Puka Nacua (22.40) really broke a sweat for Mike, but he didn't need it against the 14th place team. Emblematic of D's whole season: he had no one to sub in for Tank Bigsby when the Jaguars RB was listed as inactive.

Pulley def. Babel, 93.55-73.97

All Babel had to do to clinch a playoff berth was win. Travis Kelce (1.07) and Tyler Lockett (2.53) saw to it that he did not. Matthew Stafford (30.75) had a big game for Pulley.

Trades

Trade between Dave and Mike R.

Dave received:

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 1st
  • Austin Ekeler - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 7th

Mike R. received:

  • Cooper Kupp - from Dave - keeper cost: 2nd
  • George Pickens - from Dave - keeper cost: 4th

This was two contenders trading based on personal preference.

Dave would not have won his game without St. Brown (33.07), so it's easy to say he won this trade. But Pickens (11.87) was solid for Mike and he turned Kupp into Puka Nacua (22.40), so it's very hard to say he lost.

Trade between Ed and Pat

Ed received:

  • Kenneth Walker III - from Pat - keeper cost: 2nd
  • Courtland Sutton - from Pat - keeper cost: 6th

Pat received:

  • Breece Hall - from Ed - ineligible to be kept
  • Josh Downs - from Ed - keeper cost: 10th

"Is your starting lineup now one piece away from a Ship of Theseus scenario?" - Mike R., to Ed

Both these guys felt the need to shake up their downward-moving teams, so they moved some big name RBs around.

As everyone should expect by now, Hall (25.53) blew up the moment he left Ed's team - outscoring Walker (12.07) and Sutton (10.40) combined. (Downs also put up 17.20 on Pat's bench, though he probably would have been on Ed's, too.)

(And for the record, Ed still started two players he drafted - Brian Robinson, Jr. and T.J. Hockenson - this past week, so he hasn't transitioned fully into a Greek myth / thought experiment just yet.)

Trade between Ed and Rob

Ed received:

  • CeeDee Lamb - from Rob - keeper cost: 1st
  • Mike Williams - from Rob - keeper cost: 9th

Rob received:

  • Davante Adams - from Ed - keeper cost: 2nd
  • Tee Higgins - from Ed - keeper cost: 3rd

Rob was coming off one of his worst weeks ever and was looking at some sad flex options. Ed needed to take a home run swing in the form of a WR who wasn't living up to his draft slot.

As everyone should expect by now, Higgins (25.73) blew up the moment he left Ed's team. That said, Lamb (13.70) had a bit of a bounceback, so this wasn't as big a disaster as Ed usually experiences.

Seriously, I don't know why every one of you all isn't proposing trades to Ed every single week. You're essentially guaranteed to get an immediate win out of it.

Trade between Mike R. and Richie

Mike R. received:

  • Calvin Ridley - from Richie - keeper cost: 4th
  • Puka Nacua - from Richie - keeper cost: 7th

Richie received:

  • Mike Evans - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 1st
  • Cooper Kupp - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 2nd

This was the second two-WR-for-two-WR trade of the week, and the second trade between Mike and another contender that was basically just two teams with different opinions on specific players.

Both guys won, and both Kupp (26.13) and Nacua (22.40) had great weeks. So this was the second win-win trade for Mike, as well.

Trade between Dave and Derrek

Dave received:

  • Travis Etienne, Jr. - from Derrek - keeper cost: 1st
  • D.J. Moore - from Derrek - keeper cost: 2nd
  • David Njoku - from Derrek - keeper cost: 6th

Derrek received:

  • Alec Pierce - from Dave - keeper cost: 9th
  • Cedric Tillman - from Dave - keeper cost: 9th
  • Will Dissly - from Dave - keeper cost: 9th

This trade was a more straightforward keeper trade. Derrek has no use for the three players he sent away, but Pierce and Tillman both might emerge as solid keepers.

Dave nearly lost because Etienne (3.50) was in his lineup. Tillman (6.27) and Pierce (9.87) were only OK for D, though Will Dissly (16.67) wound up having a very good week.

Standings

  1. Rob, 9-2, 1,167.08 (x)
  2. Babel, 8-3, 1,096.05
  3. Richie, 7-4, 1,225.79
  4. Dave, 7-4, 1,169.47
  5. Matt, 7-4, 1,081.05
  6. Mike R., 6-5, 1,232.22
  7. Pat, 5-6, 1,114.61
  8. Schertz, 5-6, 1,089.42
  9. Ed, 5-6, 1,085.61
  10. Rabbit, 4-7, 1,188.72
  11. Scott, 4-7, 1,045.90
  12. Pulley, 4-7, 953.99
  13. Kevin, 3-8, 1,102.30
  14. Derrek, 3-8, 951.21
  • (x) - clinched playoff berth

Blingalytics Ratings

a.k.a. "Mike and the Three R's"

  1. Mike R., 639
  2. Rob, 612
  3. Rabbit, 603
  4. Richie, 603
  5. Dave, 560
  6. Kevin, 495
  7. Schertz, 495
  8. Pat, 490
  9. Babel, 483
  10. Matt, 482
  11. Ed, 465
  12. Scott, 451
  13. Derrek, 313
  14. Pulley, 310

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Schertz took home Team Blangums with 140.65.

Slapped Heartbeat

Scott got his heartbeat slapped for the second time this year with 64.87.

Weekly MVP

Taysom Hill scored 35.37 for Schertz, which led to his $20 prize (see Team Blangums, above). Honorable mention: Jared Goff, who scored 38.70 for Mike R.

Dud of the Week

Travis Kelce scored just 1.07 for Babel in his embarrassing loss.

Start of the Week

Schertz played Jauan Jennings (18.13) over Kennan Allen (5.47), which was key in his Blangums performance.

Misplay of the Week

Rob played the Atlanta defense (-5.00); leaving the slot empty would have earned him the top score of the week.

Pickup of the Week

Pat lost, but it wasn't because of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who rewarded the use of the waiver priority to the tune of 17.60 points.

Playoff Scenarios

Rob has clinched a playoff berth.

Rob clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Richie loss AND a Dave loss.

Babel clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Pat loss AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pat loss AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Matt clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pat loss AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

The Great Separation of week 11 has made for a lot of mathematical clinching opportunities this week (especially compared to this time last year), but it also has created a situation where all six spots can effectively be locked up if things shake out the right way.

To start, as detailed above, every one of the top five teams can clinch this week, since they are all at least two games up on the 7th-9th placers.

And while Mike R., in sixth place, can't formally clinch this week, he'll all but formally book his trip to the playoffs if he gets a win in addition to all the 5-6 teams losing. That's because he'll be two games up on each of them with two weeks to play, and he's currently more than 120 points ahead of the closest among that group, and thus, extremely unlikely to lose out on a tiebreaker.

(One minor note: Rob and Richie need Matt and Pat losses, respectively, but since they are playing said teams this week, that part comes with the "win" requirement.)

Week 12 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Rob for Today (Rob, 9-2, 1st) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-4, 5th)

Matt leads all-time series, 14-7.

  • Rob still plays: Ed, Pulley
  • Matt still plays: Derrek, Mike R.

Two weeks ago, Rob was averaging 108.60 points per game with a standard deviation of 4.75. After a pretty wild two weeks, his average is now at 106.10, but his standard deviation has ballooned to 18.73. Week 12 could bring even more variation, as he'll be without recent acquisitions Tee Higgins and Davante Adams, who are both on bye. It appears Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. DET)) and Zach Ertz (vs. DAL)) are their likely replacements, which means Saquon Barkley (@LAR) and Brock Bowers (vs. DEN) might have carry even more of a load than they usually do for our first place team.

Matt's seven game winning streak will be put to the test against said first place team, and getting George Kittle (@GB) and Marvin Harrison, Jr. (@SEA) back from injury and bye, respectively, probably makes him the favorite. And does anyone else worry about Matt making the playoffs despite Tyreek Hill (vs. NE) being a big disappointment, only for the Dolphins WR to return to elite levels for a playoff run?

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Other Blingamatches

Ed Gross (Richie, 7-4, 3rd) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 5-6, 7th)

Pat leads all-time series, 8-4.

  • Richie still plays: Dave, Scott
  • Pat still plays: Scott, Schertz

Richie might be in good playoff shape no matter what happens this week, but he probably needs to win to keep any hopes for a bye alive. Enter Tommy DeVito (vs. TAM)! Yes, with Joe Burrow on bye this week, the 2023 meme QB will likely be starting for our third best team. Joe Mixon (vs. TEN), who's making his case for fantasy MVP this year, is playing, though, and so are trade acquisitions Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (vs. TAM) and Cade Otton (@NYG).

Pat definitely needs a win this week, as a seventh loss would be damning. Justin Herbert (vs. BAL) has been great lately, and has a great matchup. Derrick Henry (@LAC) is on the other side of that real-life matchup and hasn't really been his early-season self lately. Pat will need that to change if he wants #playoffpat to be a reality once again.

Pick: Ed Gross.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 6-5, 6th) vs. Let him Cook! (Scott, 4-7, 11th)

Scott leads all-time series, 6-1.

  • Mike R. still plays: Kevin, Matt
  • Scott still plays: Pat, Richie

Mike is carrying on the recent trend of our points leader having a middling record at this point in the season. From 2008-2019, the team with the most points was never worse than 7-4 or lower than 3rd place in the standings. But then in 2020, Rob led the league in points with just a 6-5 record (6th place). And then in 2022, Schertz one-upped that with a 5-6 record, which was good for 9th place!

Anyways, I didn't talk about any of Mike's players because I'm not sure it matters this week. Scott will be without Drake London, Kyle Pitts, James Cook, Amari Cooper, and Tyler Bass this week. And his team has been medicore lately and is coming off a Slapped Heartbeat award. That doesn't bode well for his week 12 upset bid.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-6, 8th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-8, 14th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 8-5.

  • Schertz still plays: Babel, Pat
  • Derrek still plays: Matt, Rabbit

I will 100% guarantee you that Taysom Hill (bye) does not carry Schertz to another Team Blangums this week. Missing the Saints TE isn't a big deal, though, as Christian McCaffrey (@GB), De'Von Achane (vs. NE), and Kyren Williams (vs. PHI) are all available. So yeah, Schertz should be fine in.

Meanwhile, Derrek's upset bid will need Will Dissly and Ladd McConkey (both vs. BAL) to repeat their week 11 performances. With their matchup, that's not completely out of the question. Throw in the upside of Zay Flowers (@LAC) and Cedric Tillman (vs. PIT), and D has a fighting chance,

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Live Commish (Ed, 5-6, 9th) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 4-7, 10th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 12-8.

  • Ed still plays: Rob, Babel
  • Rabbit still plays: Pulley, Derrek

Like Pat (and Schertz), Ed is in a must-win scenario. Having traded away Breece Hall, Tee Higgins, and Davante Adams (all on bye) helps with that. Kenneth Walker III (vs. ARI) was merely OK in his first week on the commissioner's team, but CeeDee Lamb (@WAS) and Courtland Sutton (@LV) showed the kind of floor that led Ed to wanting them. If A.J. Brown (@LAR) can score a touchdown for once, Ed might keep his playoff hopes alive.

Meanwhile, Rabbit has two key players - Chase Brown and Brian Thomas, Jr. - on bye, which means he'll have to elevate guys like Noah Brown (vs. DAL) and Devin Singletary (vs. TAM) to his starting roster. That suggests his losing streak will continue, but Lamar Jackson (@LAC) remains extremely dangerous and Jonathan Taylor (vs. DET) is ready to enact revenge on Ed for trading him.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Keep Calm & Keon (Babel, 8-3, 2nd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 3-8, 13th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 9-7.

  • Babel still plays: Schertz, Ed
  • Kevin still plays: Mike R., Dave

Babel is in second place, Kevin second-to-last. Normally you'd think that setup means Babel should take a big step towards cementing a bye this week, but it's actually Kevin that more points and expected wins on the season.

But Kevin will be without Ja'Marr Chase (bye) this week.

Pick: Keep Calm & Keon.

Double Digits (Dave, 7-4, 4th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-7, 12th)

All-time series tied, 9-9.

  • Dave still plays: Richie, Kevin
  • Pulley still plays: Rabbit, Rob

Both of these guys have won three of their last four, but Dave has averaged nearly 25 more points per game than Pulley in that span.

Pick: Double Digits.

Closing Thoughts

Week 11's average score of 104.87 is the second highest of the season. Nice job, gang!