The Sanderson Gazette - 2024-11-27 - Two to Go

Week 12 Recap

Derrek def. Schertz, 93.16-90.98

We'll start out with the matchup that wasn't decided until after the two-minute warning on Monday night. A late Ladd McConkey (11.07) reception put Derrek up for good. Schertz had one final chance, if the Ravens defense (4.00) could cause a turnover; instead, they gave up a touchdown to put him even further behind.

This game was dramatic, but not especially good. Derrek's second highest scorer was his kicker, Daniel Carlson (15.30). The same is true for Schertz (Cameron Dicker (16.60)). No players broke the twenty point barrier.

Dave def. Pulley, 111.52-104.28

Pulley had a shot at the upset heading into Monday night, but J.K. Dobbins (6.53) got injured in the first half, and thus could not score enough to spring Pulley ahead. Dave moved into bye position with 28.60 from Josh Jacobs (who was on Pulley's roster just three weeks ago), 24.30 from Wil Lutz, and 23.43 from D.J. Moore.

Rob def. Matt, 143.23-119.73

Rob looked like he might lose, too, needing just under twenty points from Saquon Barkley heading into the Sunday night game. Two 70-yard touchdowns later, Barkley was sitting on 43.77 and Rob was sitting on ten wins.

Matt saw his seven game win streak come to an end despite a great game from Bucky Irving (23.23).

Kevin def. Babel, 137.15-89.26

Kevin broke 100 points for the fifth time in six weeks and eight time in ten; only Rob and Mike R. have hit triple digits more than him this year. Jordan Addison (27.60) stepped up with Ja'Marr Chase on bye, and Patrick Mahomes II (28.95) finally had a great week.

Meanwhile, Babel sputtered to his third straight sub-90 score. Nico Collins (18.27) was good, but he once again got bit by a Broncos RB as Javonte Williams scored just 0.60.

Pat def. Richie, 99.46-66.82

Pat kept himself in the playoff picture with a decent week; he has Aaron Jones (17.67) and Jakobi Meyers (16.13) to thank for that. Oh, and he can thank Richie, who completely fell apart, with only Cooper Kupp (14.00) doing anything of note.

Mike R. def. Scott, 123.11-67.62

Only Austin Seibert (6.20) failed to score ten points for Mike, who is now in excellent playoff position (more on that later). Scott barely avoided getting his heartbeat slapped for the third time this year; Christian Watson (0.40) and Quentin Johnston (zero) combining for less than a point is a big reason he did so poorly.

Ed def. Rabbit, 115.04-73.75

Ed finally saw some trades pay off, as Courtland Sutton (24.93) and A.J. Brown (20.53) both scored in the twenties. It didn't really matter against Rabbit, who got a surprising 10.67 from Devaughn Vele, but not much else.

Standings

  1. Rob, 10-2, 1,310.31 (x)
  2. Dave, 8-4, 1,280.99
  3. Babel, 8-4, 1,185.31
  4. Mike R., 7-5, 1,355.33
  5. Richie, 7-5, 1,292.61
  6. Matt, 7-5, 1,200.78
  7. Pat, 6-6, 1,214.07
  8. Ed, 6-6, 1,200.65
  9. Schertz, 5-7, 1,180.40
  10. Rabbit, 4-8, 1,262.47 (e)
  11. Kevin, 4-8, 1,239.45 (e)
  12. Scott, 4-8, 1,113.52 (e)
  13. Pulley, 4-8, 1,058.27 (e)
  14. Derrek, 4-8, 1,044.37 (e)
  • (x) - clinched playoff berth
  • (e) - eliminated from playoff contention

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Mike R., 654
  2. Rob, 638
  3. Dave, 569
  4. Rabbit, 561
  5. Richie, 555
  6. Kevin, 529
  7. Matt, 507
  8. Pat, 489
  9. Ed, 487
  10. Schertz, 480
  11. Babel, 467
  12. Scott, 416
  13. Pulley, 330
  14. Derrek, 317

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Saquon Barkley's Sunday night explosion didn't just steal Rob a win, it stole him his first Blangums of the season.

Slapped Heartbeat

Richie joins Rob, Pat, and Schertz as the only teams this year to win both Team Blangums and Slapped Heartbeat (so far). He scored just 66.82 this week, his lowest score in nearly three seasons.

Weekly MVP

Saquon Barkley, 43.77.

Dud of the Week

Quentin Johnston scored zero points on five targets for Scott.

Start of the Week

Derrek could have played Cedric Tillman (1.73) over Ladd McConkey (11.07), Tank Dell (9.60), or Zay Flowers (8.27). But he chose wisely and came away with a tight win because of it.

Misplay of the Week

Schertz left Keenan Allen (17.47) and Jerry Jeudy (11.33) on his bench in favor of Jauan Jennings (5.33) and came away with a tight loss because of it.

Pickup of the Week

Kevin grabbed Luke Schoonmaker on Saturday and got 13.33 points in his TE slot as a result.

Pryor Play of the Week

Patrick Mahomes II (28.95) hasn't been in Kevin's lineup every week, but he was drafted in the third round. His 28.95 in week twelve represents his season high.

Playoff Scenarios

Rob has clinched a playoff berth.

Rob clinches a bye with:

  • a win OR a Dave loss OR a Babel loss.

Rob clinches first place with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Dave loss AND a Babel loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Pat loss AND an Ed loss.

Babel clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • a Pat loss AND an Ed loss.

Mike R. clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pat loss AND an Ed loss.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pat loss AND an Ed loss.

Matt clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pat loss AND an Ed loss.

(Derrek, Pulley, Scott, Kevin, and Rabbit have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Rob is extremely likely to finish in first place (and get a bye). Only Dave and Babel can pass him, and each of them would have to win out while Rob loses out and pass Rob in points (Dave trails by 30, Babel by 125).

That means Dave is really the only other team with any sort of hope for first place, as 30 points is easy to make up if you go 2-0 while the team you're chasing goes 0-2. But that is still very unlikely. He has much higher odds of getting a bye. If he wins both games, he'll get it, even if Babel also goes 2-0 (the 96 points Babel trails by is nearly impossible to make up if Dave wins twice). If Dave loses to Richie this week, it gets interesting, as any of the current 7-5 would then have multiple ways to pass him. If Dave loses both his remaining games, he can technically miss the playoffs, though Pat or Ed would need to win out and make up 67 or 81 points while doing so, respectively. That's why the playoff odds report simulation puts him at 99% to make it.

Babel has eight wins but a lower point total than all the .500 or better teams, which means he can't count on winning any tiebreakers. That means he'll probably need to win out to get the second bye; if he doesn't, Dave going 1-1 or any of Mike R., Richie, or Matt going 2-0 will result in him being passed. And if Babel loses out, he is in real danger of missing the playoffs completely. All it would take then is for Pat or Ed to go 2-0, and in such a scenario Ed would have for sure beaten Babel in Rivalry Week.

Mike R. is in the playoffs with just one win due to his point lead over Pat (141) and Ed (155). The same is mostly true of Richie, though his point lead is not as big. This also means both would be in if Pat or Ed should lose even once.

Matt is currently in the last playoff spot and can't be nearly as confident as the five teams ahead of him. He's behind Pat and barely ahead of Ed in points, so he really needs to win at least as many games as they each do to cement his position.

Pat and Ed are in very similar positions, as they're only 14 points apart. The don't need to win out, thanks to Matt's loss in week twelve, but it's the most straightforward way to make the playoffs.

Finally, Schertz is still alive, but needs a miracle. Realistically, he can't catch Mike R. or Richie in points, so his path to the playoffs is: to go 2-0, Matt to go 0-2, and Pat and Ed to each go no better than 1-1... all while scoring 21 more points than Matt and possibly needing to score 34 more points than Pat and 21 more than Ed. He makes the playoffs in just 1% of all simulations.

Week 13 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Double Digits (Dave, 8-4, 2nd) vs. Ed Gross (Richie, 7-5, 5th)

Richie leads all-time series, 8-5.

  • Dave still plays: Kevin
  • Richie still plays: Scott

Hanging on to his lead this past Monday means Dave is now playing for the second bye, but he'll be doing it against a schedule that suddenly looks both more and less imposing with last week's results. No matter what, it's likely Dave will have to win both games as opposed to seeing his opponents stumble. On that front, Justin Jefferson (vs. ARI) probably can't be any worse than he was in week twelve, and Bijan Robinson (vs. LAC) definitely can't, seeing as he was on bye. Josh Jacobs (vs. MIA) and D.J. Moore (@DET) are unlikely to repeat their huge games, though, which means Dave's overall performance will probably come down to two x-factors: Kyler Murray (@MIN), who sometimes looks like he has forgotten how to play QB; and Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. CHI), who is dealing with an injury on a short week.

Richie doesn't have a high risk of missing the playoffs, but I'm sure he'd like to win this week to remove any fear of doing so. Joe Burrow (vs. PIT) is back, and Joe Mixon (@JAC) has a great bounceback matchup. Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. IND) could be key, as he faces a defense that has had trouble stopping RBs all season long.

Pick: Ed Gross.

Other Blingamatches

Rob for Today (Rob, 10-2, 1st) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 6-6, 8th)

Ed leads all-time series, 11-9.

  • Rob still plays: Pulley
  • Ed still plays: Babel

Rob heads into the second Blingabowl XVI rematch of this season just needing a win to sew up first place. He just won Team Blangums without Tee Higgins (vs. PIT) and Davante Adams (vs. SEA), both received from Ed, which bodes well moving forward. But really, Rob is all about Saquon Barkley (@BAL), who's put up 77.30 points over the past two weeks.

Ed looks like a formidable opponent, at least according to Yahoo. (At press time, Yahoo's projection for this matchup had a margin of 0.03.) A.J. Brown (@BAL), Courtland Sutton (vs. CLE), and Jaylen Waddle (@GB) all broke out last week; if they keep that up, or if CeeDee Lamb (vs. NYG) can return to his 2023 form, Ed's in good shape to keep his playoff dream going.

Pick: Live Commish.

Keep Calm & Keon (Babel, 8-4, 3rd) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 5-7, 9th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 7-5.

  • Babel still plays: Ed
  • Schertz still plays: Pat

Babel would really like to right the ship, so getting Josh Allen (vs. SF) back from his bye must be a huge relief. Nico Collins (@JAC) looks like his injury is totally behind him, which is great, and Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce (both vs. LV) have a nice matchup. And don't overlook Kai'mi Fairbairn (@JAC) against the horrendous Jaguars.

Schertz, like last week, is projected for Team Blangums by Yahoo. He'll need his actual result to go the opposite way of last week, however, if he wants to keep even his tiny playoff hopes alive. Lucky for him, De'Von Achane (@GB), Kyren Williams (@NO), and Christian McCaffrey (@BUF) give him a solid chance of winning any week.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 7-5, 6th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-8, 14th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 11-10.

  • Matt still plays: Mike R.
  • Derrek still plays: Rabbit

Matt's looking to overcome an 0-4 start to make the playoffs, but with his rival - who leads the league in points - on tap next week, he might need to win this week. Will Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@WAS) score a touchdown for the seventh time in the last eight games? Will Brock Purdy (@BUF) return from injury (and be the correct play over Baker Mayfield (@CAR))? Will David Montgomery (vs. CHI) be the Lions RB that destroys the Bears on Thanksgiving? Matt's team is full of potential and questions.

Meanwhile, Derrek is just the second last place team post-expansion to have four or more wins at this point in the year, so he's a tougher out than your regular cellar dweller. Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly (both @ATL) have benefitted from the improvements to the Chargers passing game and C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell (@JAC) have a great matchup to justify being chosen as keepers over the summer.

This matchup will probably come down to which Tampa Bay RB goes off this week at Carolina: Bucky Irving for Matt, or Rachaad White for Derrek.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 7-5, 4th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-8, 11th)

Mike R. leads all-time series, 10-7.

  • Mike R. still plays: Matt
  • Kevin still plays: Dave

Mike's two game win streak means he can mostly breathe easily when it comes to making the playoffs, but that doesn't mean he wants to lose out. And with his rival - who's historically had his number - looming in week fourteen, that means this week is important. A Rams-Saints shootout, featuring Puka Nacua (@NO) and Alvin Kamara (vs. LAR), would be nice for the Bullies, and George Pickens (@CIN) channeling last week's rage into a big game against another division rival would help, too.

Kevin gets Ja'Marr Chase (vs. PIT) back to go against Pickens and has the Jahmyr Gibbs-Lions defense combo (both vs. CHI) on Thanksgiving. But how long can a team starting guys like Demarcus Robinson (@NO), Michael Wilson (@MIN), and DeMario Douglas (vs. IND) keep putting up high scores?

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 6-6, 7th) vs. Let him Cook! (Scott, 4-8, 12th)

Scott leads all-time series, 4-2.

  • Pat still plays: Schertz
  • Scott still plays: Richie

Outside of Schertz, no one can top Pat's RBs: Derrick Henry (vs. PHI), Breece Hall (vs. SEA), and Aaron Jones (vs. ARI) should put him in a good position to make a playoff push.

Scott has James Cook (vs. SF) back from bye, but his team is circling the drain. At least Jayden Daniels (vs. TEN) returned to early season form last week!

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 4-8, 10th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-8, 13th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 9-8.

  • Rabbit still plays: Derrek
  • Pulley still plays: Rob

This is the first time in Blingaleague history that Rabbit has been mathematically eliminated with two games left, and just the second time Pulley has (2021 being the first).

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Closing Thoughts

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!