The Sanderson Gazette - 2024-12-04 - Benevolent and Unmotivated

"Now I want Babel to win, so he can get the bye. I want the team that seems the least threatening to get the other bye." - Rob

"That's so benevolent and unmotivated." - Babel

Week 13 Recap

Dave def. Richie, 135.16-117.62

Heading into Monday night, Dave was trailing Richie by a little under thirteen points. But after David Njoku (18.93) and Wil Lutz (11.30) played, he had a comfortable victory. Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs added 20.60 and 20.17, respectively.

Richie got 21.73 from Mike Evans and 15.40 from Chris Boswell, but took his second straight loss.

Schertz def. Babel, 94.64-89.83

Babel also found himself down by a manageable amount heading into the final game of the week. But despite an early touchdown, Javonte Williams put up just 6.50 and Mark failed in his comeback bid. That's despite Josh Allen (30.13) getting a passing and receiving touchdown on the same play!

Schertz, as usual, was led by Kyren Williams (17.60) and De'Von Achane (14.87).

Rob def. Ed, 128.74-107.97

Both of the Gross brothers had 60+ points prior to Sunday, as they had plenty of players going on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Among them were Rico Dowdle (18.67) and Brock Bowers (24.87) for Rob and Jonnu Smith (15.07) and the Dallas defense (19.00) for Ed. Ultimately, this one came down to which Eagles player went off on Sunday: it was Saquon Barkley (18.03), not A.J. Brown (8.80), and Rob was victorious.

Matt def. Derrek, 119.28-89.11

Bucky Irving (25.60) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (20.13) were outstanding for Matt as he clinched a playoff spot. Derrek got a big fat zero from Will Dissly and 1.70 from Daniel Carlson. That about sums this one up.

Mike R. def. Kevin, 102.22-89.77

Mike rolled along with a mostly balanced effort, as no one on his team broke the twenty-point barrier (Jared Goff was his high scorer with 18.65). Kevin also had no one at that level, and even left the injured DeVonta Smith (zero) in his lineup.

Scott def. Pat, 94.07-67.19

Scott definitely needed Jayden Daniels (28.70) to be great, as Deebo Samuel, Sr. and Kyle Pitts - already several weeks into cold streaks - scored just 0.67 and zero, respectively. But Pat completely failed to capitalize, with only Derrick Henry (12.07) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (10.80) hitting double digits.

Rabbit def. Pulley, 107.17-81.76

Rabbit ended his seven game losing streak convincingly, getting 26.25 from Lamar Jackson and 17.00 from Chase Brown. Poor Pulley got 0.80 from Wan'Dale Robinson in the loss.

Standings

  1. Rob, 11-2, 1,439.05 (b)
  2. Dave, 9-4, 1,416.15 (x)
  3. Mike R., 8-5, 1,457.55 (x)
  4. Matt, 8-5, 1,320.16 (x)
  5. Babel, 8-5, 1,275.14 (x)
  6. Richie, 7-6, 1,410.23
  7. Ed, 6-7, 1,308.62
  8. Pat, 6-7, 1,281.26
  9. Schertz, 6-7, 1,275.04
  10. Rabbit, 5-8, 1,369.64 (e)
  11. Scott, 5-8, 1,207.59 (e)
  12. Kevin, 4-9, 1,329.22 (e)
  13. Pulley, 4-9, 1,140.03 (e)
  14. Derrek, 4-9, 1,133.48 (e)
  • (b) - clinched bye
  • (x) - clinched playoff berth
  • (e) - eliminated from playoff contention

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Rob, 656
  2. Mike R., 644
  3. Dave, 595
  4. Richie, 571
  5. Rabbit, 565
  6. Matt, 529
  7. Kevin, 512
  8. Ed, 498
  9. Schertz, 474
  10. Babel, 455
  11. Pat, 454
  12. Scott, 414
  13. Pulley, 319
  14. Derrek, 316

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Dave's Monday night surge not only won him his game, it earned him Team Blangums.

Slapped Heartbeat

Pat's dud not only effectively ended his playoff hopes, it earned him a Slapped Heartbeat.

Weekly MVP

It's not every week a quarterback throws himself a touchdown, so Josh Allen (30.13) will take this award for Babel.

Dud of the Week

Kareem Hunt scored just 1.50 for Babel in a close loss.

Start of the Week

The teams that won relatively close games left points on their bench.

Misplay of the Week

The teams that lost relatively close games didn't have any bench players that would have turned their losses to wins.

Pickup of the Week

Ed lost, but picking up the Cowboys defense was savvy, as they scored 19.00 points.

Playoff Scenarios

Rob has clinched a playoff berth, a bye, and first place.

Dave has clinched a playoff berth.

Dave clinches a bye with:

  • a win.

Mike R. has clinched a playoff berth.

Matt has clinched a playoff berth.

Babel has clinched a playoff berth.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

OR

  • losses by Ed, Pat, and Schertz.

(Derrek, Pulley, Kevin, Scott, and Rabbit have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Rob is locked into the #1 seed, no matter what. The only thing he's competing for in week 14 is to possibly pass Mike R. for most points (he trails by 18.50) and to stomp on his eliminated rival in the Clash of Hatred.

Dave has the inside track for the second bye. Being a game or more up on every team that isn't Rob means that he gets it if he wins. And if he loses, only Mike R. has a realistic shot of passing him with a win, since Mike is already ahead of Dave in points.

Speaking of Mike R., he's the only other team that can get the second bye. And while it wouldn't be guaranteed, it would be extremely likely to happen if he wins and Dave loses.

Matt can end up anywhere from 3rd to 6th, depending on how other games shake out. Babel is very unlikely to move up to 3rd, since he's a decent distance from Matt in points (and a huge chasm away from Mike and Dave).

Finally, Richie has essentially locked up the last playoff spot. He's a full game and 100 points ahead of the 7th place team, so while he hasn't officially clinched, it would take a miracle for any of Ed, Pat, or Schertz to catch him. He can't finish any higher than 4th, though.

Ed can only make the playoffs if he wins and scores 102 points more than Richie. While we have seen gaps that large historically, it is incredibly unlikely. Pat and Schertz are both more than 25 points behind Ed, so take that unlikeliness and increase it by a bunch.

Playoff Scenarios, A Final Thought

The bottom line is that all six playoff spots are set with a week to play, even if they aren't all technically clinched. This has happened once before, in 2015, which is reflected in the playoff odds simulation for week 12 of that year.

The only other time that six teams were 90% or better to make the playoffs with a week left was our very first season. But in 2008, 7th place Ed made up a full game and a 23-point deficit to pass Derrek in the final week of the season to steal the final berth.

Week 14 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 8-5, 3rd) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 8-5, 4th)

Matt leads all-time series, 16-6.

A playoff berth isn't at stake for these two rivals, but a bye is on the line for Mike. All he needs to do is beat his rival... who sure has his number, historically.

Matt is the only team to have beaten another 16 or more times. There are three other matchups where one team has 15 wins, and Pulley is someone involved in all three (CORRECTION: Pulley is not involved in all three):

  • Babel's record vs. Pulley is 15-12;
  • Pulley's record vs. Kevin is 15-8;
  • Rabbit's record vs. Pat is 15-5.

This year, Mike has been the better team all year, despite having the same record. I'd say you can throw out the records when these two play and just predict Matt to win... and usually, that's true. But in their 22(!) previous matchups, Mike has had more total points than Matt heading into just three of them (and is still just 1-2 on those games). And this year marks his largest advantage in that area...

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Other Blingamatches

Ed Gross (Richie, 7-6, 6th) vs. Let him Cook! (Scott, 5-8, 11th)

Richie leads all-time series, 5-2.

Richie's a solid playoff team, while Scott has been on a steady decline since he led the league in points and expected wins after week three. Also, Scott's only rostered QB - Jayden Daniels - is on bye, and Richie appears to be hoarding players at the position.

Pick: Ed Gross.

Keep Calm & Keon (Babel, 8-5, 5th) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 6-7, 7th)

Babel leads all-time series, 13-7.

Last year at this time, Ed was ahead of Babel in the standings, but behind in points. This year, the opposite is true. Despite that reversal in fortune, being without Nico Collins (bye) probably keeps the outcome the same.

Pick: Live Commish.

Double Digits (Dave, 9-4, 2nd) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 4-9, 12th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 13-6.

Kevin is better than his record, but Dave is just better than Kevin. He's also paying more attention to injury reports at the moment.

Pick: Double Digits.

Rob for Today (Rob, 11-2, 1st) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-9, 13th)

Rob leads all-time series, 12-11.

The Clash of Hatred doesn't usually this disparity in team quality. Rob will look to capitalize on that and open up the first two-game lead in this series in five years.

Pick: Rob for Today.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 6-7, 8th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 6-7, 9th)

All-time series tied, 6-6.

While these two are both technically alive for the final playoff spot, neither is actually going to make it. Schertz snagging this week's hot waiver pickup, Isaac Guerendo (vs. CHI), makes it more likely he'll win this one, with only pride on the line.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 5-8, 10th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 4-9, 14th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 11-9.

Rabbit and D met in the playoffs as recently as 2021 and 2022. How the mighty have fallen.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Closing Thoughts

The season is almost over, which means the end-of-year survey will be coming soon. So if you have any suggestions for rule changes, or anything along those lines, please send them over so they can be included.