The Sanderson Gazette - 2025-11-26 - Thankful

Week 12 Recap

Ed def. Pat, 79.16-76.00

Despite having the lowest-scoring winner, we'll lead with this game because it provided the most Monday night drama. It looked for a while like George Kittle (10.40) and Tetairoa McMillan (10.67) were not going to get the eighteen points necessary for Ed to win, but a second-half touchdown by McMillan - which Pat called right before it happened! - made the difference in this one.

Outside of that, there wasn't much to write about in this one. Season-long disappointments Derrick Henry (21.60 for Ed) and Ashton Jeanty (18.73 for Pat) were the best players, while Lamar Jackson (8.25 for Ed) and D'Andre Swift (1.37 for Pat) led a long list of disappointing ones.

Kevin def. Mike R., 116.15-107.77

Mike's playoff hopes ended in a fitting way: he lost a game in which he scored over 100. His sixth such loss ties 2012 Rob for the single-season record, though his 3-6 record in triple-digit games is better than Rob's 1-6 in 2012.

Anyways, Mike got strong outings from Rashee Rice (20.80) and James Cook (19.33), but Kevin more than matched that just with Jahmyr Gibbs (45.90).

Richie def. Dave, 113.74-87.31

Richie got a big win thanks to Travis Etienne, Jr. (18.60) and keepers Darnell Mooney (15.87) and Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (15.27). Dave got a surprising 20.53 from D.J. Moore, but Josh Allen (6.65) and Justin Jefferson (6.40) couldn't score fifteen points between them, which means he now finds himself in precarious playoff position (more on that in a bit).

Scott def. Babel, 125.62-96.77

Scott all but locked up his first ever trip to the postseason (more on that in a bit, too) behind Dak Prescott (30.10), Wan'Dale Robinson (26.80), and Hunter Henry (21.33). Babel, despite the loss, continued his knack for getting big games from backup RBs as Emmanuel Wilson scored 25.10.

Pulley def. Derrek, 124.16-58.25

Pulley remained in the playoff conversation with - who else? - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (34.67) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (25.87) leading the way. Derrek played four Vikings - J.J. McCarthy (-1.15), Jordan Addison (zero), Will Reichard (11.10), and the Minnesota defense (1.00) - who combined for 10.95 total.

Rob def. Schertz, 81.88-65.75

Rob clinched his spot in the postseason despite Baker Mayfield's (2.95) injury thanks to the Houston defense (17.00) and Michael Wilson (15.73). Schertz fell out of the top six due to Kyren Williams (4.87), Dallas Goedert (2.67), and Jameson Williams (zero) severely underperforming.

Rabbit def. Matt, 137.09-118.02

Our highest-scoring game of the week comes in last here, simply because it had no playoff implications. While Matt tried his damnedest to end his losing streak (now at ten games) by putting up his high score of the season (for which he has Caleb Williams (23.55) and the Packers defense (20.00) to thank), there was no beating Rabbit this week. Jalen Hurts (33.25), George Pickens (25.47), and A.J. Brown (20.67) made up for a down week from Jonathan Taylor (6.87) for our first place team.

Trades

Trade between Mike R. and Rabbit

Mike R. received:

  • Tyler Warren - from Rabbit - keeper cost: 8th
  • Tyrell Shavers - from Rabbit - keeper cost: 9th

Rabbit received:

  • Trey McBride - from Mike R. - ineligible to be kept
  • A.J. Brown - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 1st

Mike finally decided to throw in the towel and get the best keeper he realistically could in Warren. Rabbit was happy to upgrade at two positions in exchange.

McBride (10.53) and Warren (6.00) both had down weeks, but A.J. Brown's 20.67 was a huge part of Rabbit's - SPOILER ALERT - Blangums-winning performance.

Trade between Ed and Schertz

Ed received:

  • Romeo Doubs - from Schertz - keeper cost: 9th

Schertz received:

  • Joe Burrow - from Ed - keeper cost: 4th

Ed considered Burrow a luxury, while Schertz needed something more reliable at QB than Jacoby Brissett.

Doubs's 3.07 nearly cost Ed a much-needed win. Schertz would have lost regardless. Burrow's play from week thirteen onward will determine who won this trade.

Trade between Ed and Scott

Ed received:

  • Kenneth Walker III - from Scott - keeper cost: 3rd
  • Jayden Higgins - from Scott - keeper cost: 9th

Scott received:

  • R.J. Harvey - from Ed - keeper cost: 4th
  • Elic Ayomanor - from Ed - keeper cost: 9th

Scott was fine dealing with Harvey's bye, while Ed took the minor downgrade a RB in exchange for another shot at a cheap keeper.

Walker (11.10) was a nice addition for Ed, but it'll be hard to judge this until we see how both he and Harvey do in the next few weeks.

Trade between Derrek and Kevin

Derrek received:

  • Jordan Addison - from Kevin - keeper cost: 6th

Kevin received:

  • DK Metcalf - from Derrek - keeper cost: 3rd

The last trade of the year happened less than an hour before the Sunday games kicked off! Kevin turned Addison's keeper value into Metcalf, whom he is betting on to the better of the two for the rest of this season.

Kevin was right for this week, as Metcalf's 10.13 was a big upgrade over Addison's zero.

Standings

  1. Rabbit, 10-2, 1,464.74 (x)
  2. Kevin, 10-2, 1,330.70 (x)
  3. Rob, 9-3, 1,159.44 (x)
  4. Scott, 7-5, 1,368.74
  5. Dave, 7-5, 1,216.28
  6. Richie, 7-5, 1,038.57
  7. Pulley, 6-6, 1,230.55
  8. Schertz, 6-6, 1,215.58
  9. Ed, 6-6, 1,160.39
  10. Mike R., 4-8, 1,346.26 (e)
  11. Pat, 4-8, 1,013.68 (e)
  12. Derrek, 3-9, 1,109.25 (e)
  13. Babel, 3-9, 1,047.34 (e)
  14. Matt, 2-10, 1,057.04 (e)
  • (x) - clinched playoff berth
  • (e) - eliminated from playoff contention

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Rabbit, 763
  2. Scott, 661
  3. Mike R., 651
  4. Kevin, 624
  5. Pulley, 547
  6. Dave, 526
  7. Schertz, 523
  8. Rob, 471
  9. Ed, 457
  10. Derrek, 419
  11. Richie, 369
  12. Matt, 355
  13. Pat, 323
  14. Babel, 312

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Rabbit's 137.09 was good for his fourth Team Blangums of the year - the most since Derrek had four in 2021.

Slapped Heartbeat

Speaking of Derrek, his 58.25 earned him his second Slapped Heartbeat of the season.

Weekly MVP

Jahmyr Gibbs scored a much-needed and eye-popping 45.90 for Kevin.

Dud of the Week

There were a lot of zeroes and underperformers across the whole league this week, but J.J. McCarthy's -1.15 for Derrek deserves special mention here.

Start of the Week

Neither Ed nor Kevin got their close victories because of a smart play, so no one will get this award this week.

Misplay of the Week

Mike R. would have won had he played Daniel Jones (18.65) over Brock Purdy (9.25).

Pickup of the Week

Richie, like the Jets, finally gave up on Justin Fields in favor of Trevor Lawrence (18.20).

Blessed Cahoots

For the second straight week, Ed gets this award, as his playoff hopes were kept alive by his opponent (Pat) out-failing him.

Playoff Scenarios

Rabbit has clinched a playoff berth.

Rabbit clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Rob loss.

Kevin has clinched a playoff berth.

Kevin clinches a bye with:

  • a win AND a Rob loss.

Rob has clinched a playoff berth.

Scott clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pulley loss AND a Schertz loss AND an Ed loss.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Pulley loss AND an Ed loss.

(Matt, Babel, Derrek, Pat, and Mike R. have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Rabbit and Kevin will effectively clinch byes with wins. While Rob can still catch either of them mathematically, it would require them losing out while Rob wins out. (Rob is more than 170 points behind both, so winning a tiebreaker isn't a realistic option for him.)

That means Rob will almost certainly finish the regular season in third, fourth, or fifth. (He can't fall to sixth, as both Scott and Richie can't reach nine wins on account of playing each other in week fourteen.)

The Playoff Odds page paints a different picture for each of our 7-5 teams. (Please note that percentages here might not match what you see exactly, as the simulation might be re-run between now and then.)

Scott is all but in, with around 90% playoff odds. His point total is far enough ahead of all of the six-win teams that just winning a single game basically locks him into the top six. He would also be very likely to win a tiebreaker with fellow 7-5 teams Dave and Richie for the same reason.

Dave is in pretty good shape, around 75%, as he does have more points than 6-6 teams Schertz and Ed and is only a little behind 6-6 Pulley. So winning one game would be big for his playoff hopes. However, his remaining schedule - games against the two 10-2 teams - means that losing out is a very real possibility. In that case, he'll need help in the form of Pulley, Schertz, and Ed stumbling a little towards the finish line.

Richie is about 50/50 to make the playoffs, which is incredible given that he was last in the league in points from week two through week eleven (he finally overtook Pat this past week). He probably needs two wins to make it, since he's at least 120 points behind every 6-6 team, but he can also get in if he wins once and none of them win out. Should he lose both remaining games, he'll be passed by Schertz (whom he plays in week thirteen).

Pulley, Schertz, and Ed are roughly 30%, 40%, and 15% to make the playoffs, respectively. While Pulley has the most points, his schedule (vs. Scott and Rob) is the toughest of the three. Schertz has a favorable schedule; he controls part of his own fate by playing Richie this week, and then gets Pat, who's been spiralling out of control lately. Ed is so far behind in points that even going 2-0 against a middling schedule (Kevin and Babel) will probably not be enough to get him in.

Week 13 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Let him Mind the Gap! (Scott, 7-5, 4th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-6, 7th)

Scott leads all-time series, 4-3.

  • Scott still plays: Richie
  • Pulley still plays: Rob

Scott's on the verge of the playoffs and absolutely deserves to be. He's second in points and expected winning percentage, and based on his per-game scores, there's only a 65% chance he would have more wins than he currently does. Scott can be thankful that so many other teams were willing to trade with him; his best players - Bijan Robinson (@NYJ), CeeDee Lamb (vs. KC), and Dak Prescott (vs. KC) - were all acquired that way.

Pulley's had an up-and-down season, losing his first three, winning his next five, then losing three more before a victory last week. Pulley should be most thankful for his top two WRs: Jaxon-Smith Njigba (vs. MIN), who has proven to be the best keeper from this past offseason, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. GB), who was an excellent first round pick.

Pick: Let him Mind the Gap!

Other Blingamatches

Somehow 6-4[sic] (Richie, 7-5, 6th) vs. schertzopotamus (Schertz, 6-6, 8th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 9-4.

  • Richie still plays: Scott
  • Schertz still plays: Pat

Somehow, Richie is not only still firmly in the playoff hunt but has also guaranteed himself a .500 or better record. To underscore how thankful he should be for his good fortune: based on his game scores, there's only a 5% chance he should have seven or more wins right now. He's going all-in on the Jaguars this week, starting Trevor Lawrence; Travis Etienne, Jr.; and the Jaguars defense (all @TEN). That could very well be a good choice with a postseason berth on the line.

Schertz is also still alive, and beating Richie would be a huge step towards making the playoffs for the first time since his championship 2019 season. He must be thankful for decisions made in 2023 to add De'Von Achane (vs. NO) and Kyren Williams (@CAR) to his roster, as they've been the backbone of his team all year.

Pick: Somehow 6-4.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 10-2, 1st) vs. Double Digits (Dave, 7-5, 5th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 13-7.

  • Rabbit still plays: Derrek
  • Dave still plays: Kevin

Rabbit has a lot to be thankful for. Most recently, it's the fact that Mike R. targeted Tyler Warren as a keeper and handed over Trey McBride (@TAM) and A.J. Brown (vs. CHI) to get him. That move makes Rabbit's squad - with Jonathan Taylor (vs. HOU) and George Pickens (vs. KC) leading the way - even more stacked.

The move that paid off the most for Dave this year, and for which he should be most thankful, is getting Josh Jacobs (@DET) from Babel. But the RB's health is iffy at the wrong time, as Dave has a rough schedule and is no lock to make the playoffs. Even if Jacobs plays, Josh Allen (@PIT) and Justin Jefferson (@SEA) have left a lot to be desired lately; Dave'll need them to step up if he wants to hold onto his dreams of a repeat championship.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 10-2, 2nd) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 6-6, 9th)

Ed leads all-time series, 11-9.

  • Kevin still plays: Dave
  • Ed still plays: Babel

Kevin should be thankful that Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. GB) was auto-drafted for him two years ago; the Lions RB has been nothing short of awesome since entering the league. Ja'Marr Chase (@BAL) is also back this week and Mark Andrews (vs. CIN) has a great matchup, though Rico Dowdle (vs. LAR) does not.

Ed barely kept his playoff hopes alive last week, he has to be thankful for that. His Raven-heavy team, featuring Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry (vs. CIN), gets a really good matchup this week. Other trade acquisitions George Kittle (@CLE), Tetairoa McMillan (vs. LAR), and Kenneth Walker III (vs. MIN) have all - surprisingly - lived up to expectations, which means Ed actually could fall ass backwards into a playoff spot if a few things break his way.

Pick: Live Commish.

Rob for Today (Rob, 9-3, 3rd) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-9, 12th)

Rob leads all-time series, 13-10.

  • Rob still plays: Pulley
  • Derrek still plays: Rabbit

Rob should be thankful that he's faced one of the five easiest schedules through twelve weeks ever; had he faced the schedule of his opponent this week, Derrek, he'd be just 4-8 and out of playoff contention. That said, he has faced his own schedule, which means he doesn't need injury fill-in Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NO) to have a big game, and he doesn't need Michael Wilson (@TAM) to stay red-hot, but at some point, he'll need to reckon with strong opponents again; does he have a real shot of making noise in the playoffs?

Derrek doesn't have a ton to be thankful for. His schedule, while not historically notable, has been tough. TreVeyon Henderson (vs. NYG), despite two huge recent games, didn't live up to his draft slot. Ladd McConkey (vs. LV) has been up and down. But there has been one constantly great presence: Christian McCaffrey (@CLE).

Pick: D's Nuts.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 4-8, 10th) vs. Keep Calm & Stefon (Babel, 3-9, 13th)

Mike R. leads all-time series, 13-9.

  • Mike R. still plays: Matt
  • Babel still plays: Ed

I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that either of these guys have anything to be thankful for (at least in the Blingarealm). Mike has just a one percent chance of having four or fewer wins based on his game-by-game scores, and Babel's team has been absolutely destroyed by injuries.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 4-8, 11th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 2-10, 14th)

Matt leads all-time series, 10-7.

  • Pat still plays: Schertz
  • Matt still plays: Mike R.

Regarding thankfulness, see the previous game preview. These two have also been hammered by injuries and misfortune.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

Closing Thoughts

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!