The Sanderson Gazette - 2025-12-03 - Scotty Doesn't Blow (It)

Week 13 Recap

Scott def. Pulley, 130.73-98.85

Scott entered the week in control of his own destiny, and he delivered. While he - spoiler alert! - just missed out on Team Blangums, he handily won his matchup and has a >99% chance of making the playoffs per blingaleague.com's playoff odds page. (Why this is not 100% is explained below.)

As has been common for Scott, Bijan Robinson (27.00), Dak Prescott (23.80), and CeeDee Lamb (20.93) led the way. Pulley got 30.55 from Patrick Mahomes II and 20.30 from Jason Myers, but Amon-Ra St. Brown (zero) leaving early with an injury on Thanksgiving doomed him from the start.

Schertz def. Richie, 130.42-112.02

This game had huge playoff implications and both teams performed well, but it was Schertz who came away victorious. Jameson Williams (24.70) had a huge Thanksgiving and Nico Collins (19.77) and De'Von Achane (19.40) had big Sundays for him.

Richie got 20.40 from Brock Bowers and 22.45 from Trevor Lawrence, but now finds himself needing a win and help (more on this below) in week fourteen in order to make the playoffs for the second straight year.

Rabbit def. Dave, 132.46-67.32

Despite getting an underperformance from Jonathan Taylor (13.30) and an outright horrid game from Zay Flowers (-1.20), Rabs cruised to his eleventh win of the year. Dave got just 0.53 from Justin Jefferson and 3.27 from D.J. Moore and now has a real risk of missing the playoffs.

Matt def. Pat, 122.40-71.62

Matt ended his ten-game losing streak thanks to every player on his roster falling in a ten-point range. That's right: Harold Fannin, Jr.'s 9.73 was his lowest score and Davante Adam's 19.73 was his highest. On the other side of the ledger, Pat lost his fourth straight game, never breaking the 80-point barrier in the process. D'Andre Swift (20.23) outscored everyone on Matt's team, but Sam Darnold (2.40) and Michael Pittman, Jr. (1.73) were especially bad.

Kevin def. Ed, 87.94-77.77

Ed's final remaining playoff hopes went down with Lamar Jackson (7.50). As a result, Kevin won his tenth straight despite Jahmyr Gibbs (9.20) and Tyler Loop (2.00) significantly underperforming on Thanksgiving.

Mike R. def. Babel, 94.89-61.37

The Bullies are fighting hard to the finish! Rashee Rice's 24.47 and James Cook III's 16.80 overcame Chimere Dike's -0.83 as Mike got back in the win column. Meanwhile, Babel put up his lowest score of the season, with Drake Maye (21.80) providing more than a third of his points.

Rob def. Derrek, 71.49-67.45

Rob's locked into the three seed. Derrek's in the bottom three. Let's just move along.

Standings

Rabbit has the most points ever through thirteen weeks and needs just 31 to set the all-time record.

  1. Rabbit, 11-2, 1,597.20 (x)
  2. Kevin, 11-2, 1,418.64 (x)
  3. Rob, 10-3, 1,230.93 (x)
  4. Scott, 8-5, 1,499.47
  5. Schertz, 7-6, 1,346.00
  6. Dave, 7-6, 1,283.60
  7. Richie, 7-6, 1,150.59
  8. Pulley, 6-7, 1,329.40
  9. Ed, 6-7, 1,238.16
  10. Mike R., 5-8, 1,441.15 (e)
  11. Pat, 4-9, 1,085.30 (e)
  12. Matt, 3-10, 1,179.44 (e)
  13. Derrek, 3-10, 1,176.70 (e)
  14. Babel, 3-10, 1,108.71 (e)
  • (x) - clinched playoff berth
  • (e) - eliminated from playoff contention

Blingalytics Ratings

Rabbit's 0.779 expected winning percentage is the best we've ever seen through thirteen weeks.

  1. Rabbit, 779
  2. Scott, 683
  3. Mike R., 639
  4. Kevin, 605
  5. Schertz, 556
  6. Pulley, 548
  7. Dave, 496
  8. Rob, 448
  9. Ed, 441
  10. Richie, 399
  11. Derrek, 398
  12. Matt, 396
  13. Pat, 312
  14. Babel, 299

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Rabbit's 132.46 earned him his fifth Team Blangums of the year. Only his 2010 team has had more in a season.

Slapped Heartbeat

Babel's 61.37 is his worst score of the year and gets him his second Slapped Heartbeat of the season.

Weekly MVP

The Seahawks defense had 29.00 for Rabs.

Dud of the Week

Justin Jefferson had just 0.53 for Dave.

Start of the Week

Rob was the only team to win by less than ten and he left some points on his bench. No one gets this award.

Misplay of the Week

Maybe one day Derrek will reveal what sort of incriminating evidence Jerry Jeudy has on him that makes him keep starting the Browns WR. D lost because Jakobi Meyers's 18.30 sat on his bench while Jeudy's 3.47 was in his lineup. (Ricky Pearsall's 1.87 was also in his lineup, so D could have won this award for two reasons.)

Pickup of the Week

Kevin picked up the Dolphins defense and got 13.00 points in a game he won by less than eleven.

Playoff Scenarios

Rabbit has clinched a playoff berth.

Rabbit clinches a bye with:

  • a win OR a Rob loss.

Rabbit clinches first place with:

  • a win AND a Kevin loss.

Kevin has clinched a playoff berth.

Kevin clinches a bye with:

  • a win OR a Rob loss.

Kevin clinches first place with:

  • a win AND a Rabbit loss.

Rob has clinched a playoff berth.

Scott clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Schertz loss OR a Dave loss.

Schertz clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Dave loss OR a Richie loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Schertz loss OR a Richie loss.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win

AND

  • a Schertz loss OR a Dave loss.

(Babel, Derrek, Matt, and Pat have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Rabbit and Kevin are in the same situation: 11-2 and both a full game and more than 187 points up on third place (Rob). They are locked into the two byes. Rabbit is nearly 180 points up on Kevin, so the only way he doesn't finish in first is if he loses while Kevin wins; if they both have the same result, Rabs will remain on top.

Rob is locked into third place, two games ahead of fourth place (Scott) and with no realistic path to win a tiebreaker with either team ahead of him.

Scott is in the playoffs for the first time ever! He has not mathematically clinched, as he still could miss the playoffs if (a) Schertz wins and outscores him by 154 points; (b) Dave wins and outscores him by 216 points; and (c) he loses to Richie by 349 points. I am going to boldly predict that those things will not all happen.

Schertz and Dave both control their own fate, as they are far enough ahead of Richie in points (196 and 134, respectively) to not have to worry about him beating them on a tiebreaker. Also, a loss does not automatically lock either out of the playoffs; if Richie, Pulley, and Ed lose, Schertz and Dave are in no matter what.

Richie, Pulley, and Ed all must win in order to make it, and even then, they'll need help.

Should Richie win, he'll just need one of Schertz or Dave to lose; that's well within the realm of possibility.

Should Pulley win, he'll need at least two of Schertz, Dave, and Richie to lose, and he'll need to win a tiebreaker over at least two of them. He's up by 179 on Richie and 46 on Dave, so it seems likely he'd pass either of them in such a scenario. But he's 17 behind Schertz, which is more difficult.

Finally, Ed is so far behind everyone but Richie in points that the only even tiny shot he has is (a) to win; (b) Dave, Richie, and Pulley to all lose; (c) to outscore Dave by 46 points.

The Race for Last Place

Babel, Derrek, Matt, and Pat are all still eligible for last place! Babel will almost certainly nab it with a loss, as he's 68 points behind Derrek, who's currently in thirteenth. But if among him, Derrek, and Matt - all currently 3-10 - if just one loses while the others win, that loser will come in fourteenth.

Finally, Pat is likely to finish in last if he loses and Babel, Derrek, and Matt all win, as he's already last in total points.

Week 14 Preview

This is by far the least competitive Rivalry Week has looked heading into the week. Based on expected win percentages to this point, the favorite with the lowest win probability is Pulley, who is 55.0% to beat Rob. Prior to this year, the previous mark - the highest win probability in the closest matchup - was in 2016, when Pulley was 52.7% to beat Rob.

In terms of the median win probability among the favorites, it's even more pronounced. This year's is 62.0%, and the previous high was in 2022, when it was 58.8%.

Game of the Blingaweek

Let him Mind the Gap! (Scott, 8-5, 4th) vs. Barftastic (Richie, 7-6, 7th)

Richie leads all-time series, 6-2.

As noted above, very few games pit two evenly-matched teams against each other... and despite the similar records, this one is no exception.

Historically, neither team has much of a reputation for winning. It's like when the Texans, solidly in the playoffs, would beat the Colts or Titans or Jaguars at the end of the year to keep them from sneaking in.

Pick: Let him Mind the Gap!

Other Blingamatches

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 11-2, 2nd) vs. Double Digits (Dave, 7-6, 6th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 14-6.

Kevin's got a bye locked up and could be an upset of Rabbit away from first place overall. Meanwhile, Dave has been in the playoff picture all year, but is at risk of falling out with a loss. This is like when a 14-2 Chiefs team plays a 9-6 (editor: this should be 9-7) Chargers team in the final week of the year.

Pick: The Chocolate Donuts.

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 7-6, 5th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 4-9, 11th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 7-6.

Schertz is getting hot at the right time, while Pat is ice cold. This is like when the Ravens are "the team no one wants to face in the playoffs," but first have to play the Browns to get there.

Pick: schertzopotamus.

Rob for Today (Rob, 10-3, 3rd) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 6-7, 8th)

Rob leads all-time series, 13-11.

Rob's team, as he likes to remind us all, is way more dysfunctional than its record. Pulley is feisty, but is dealing with the fact that a slow start is currently keeping him out of playoff position. Also, this rivalry is as bitter as one can get; it is called the Clash of Hatred, after all! This one screams 2025 Eagles vs. 2025 Cowboys to me.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Live Commish (Ed, 6-7, 9th) vs. Keep Calm & Stefon (Babel, 3-10, 14th)

Babel leads all-time series, 14-7.

Technically, one of these teams is still alive for the posteason. The other is just sad. It'll be like when the Panthers and Saints play later this year.

Pick: Live Commish.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 11-2, 1st) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-10, 13th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 11-10.

Rabbit needs just eleven points to pass the 25,000 mark for his franchise total. Derrek is hoping to avoid last place. Rams-Cardinals, it is!

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 5-8, 10th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-10, 12th)

Matt leads all-time series, 16-7.

These two teams have a lot of history, but this year, they're just bad. I'm going to say Mike is the Commanders and Matt is the Giants.

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Closing Thoughts

Week thirteen had our lowest average score since week one. Let's not end the season on another down note!