2011 Derrek

8-5 (0.615), 1,270.86 points

3rd place (regular season)

6th place (playoffs)

5.83 expected wins (0.448)

63-80 all-play record (0.441)

-10.7% strength of schedule

Week W/L PF PA Opponent Margin
1 L 62.28 120.32 Allen -58.04 Slapped Heartbeat
2 W 138.17 104.84 Pat 33.33
3 W 111.02 109.31 Rob 1.71
4 L 96.21 121.00 Babel -24.79
5 W 108.41 92.26 Dave 16.15
6 W 99.76 69.43 Ed 30.33
7 L 59.96 110.89 Matt -50.93
8 L 85.45 106.08 Pulley -20.63
9 W 105.35 94.19 Mike R. 11.16
10 W 126.74 94.25 Kevin 32.49
11 W 89.22 50.74 Rabbit 38.48
12 W 97.79 78.77 Pulley 19.02
13 L 90.50 98.44 Allen -7.94
14 L 115.30 125.62 Matt -10.32 Quarterfinals
15 L 87.31 118.37 Allen -31.06 Fifth-Place Game

Expected Win Distribution:

Expected Win Distribution0.0%0.0%8.0%8.0%16.0%16.0%24.0%24.0%0123456789101112130.0%28.71428571428572141.2307692307692300.0%65.52747252747253141.2307692307692310.0%102.34065934065934141.2307692307692320.0%139.15384615384613141.2307692307692330.0%175.96703296703296141.2307692307692340.0%212.7802197802198141.2307692307692350.0%249.5934065934066141.2307692307692360.0%286.4065934065934141.2307692307692379.7%323.2197802197802115.390536387239580.0%360.032967032967141.2307692307692390.0%396.8461538461538141.23076923076923100.0%433.6593406593406141.23076923076923110.0%470.4725274725274141.23076923076923120.0%507.2857142857143141.23076923076923130.0%28.71428571428572141.219378768228100.1%65.52747252747253140.9496617751377711.0%102.34065934065934138.6181514852236224.6%139.15384615384613128.8429701768555312.9%175.96703296703296106.77382319695454422.6%212.780219780219880.80469754470364525.9%249.593406593406672.00000000000001619.6%286.406593406593488.8554017699952170.0%323.219780219780289.5503035437097683.0%360.032967032967133.2649828387067490.5%396.8461538461538139.84236463909872100.0%433.6593406593406141.12627613864112110.0%470.4725274725274141.23065181227764120.0%507.2857142857143141.2307692307692313Expected Win DistributionWins

Season Trajectory

Rank by Week12th12th11th11th10th10th9th9th8th8th7th7th6th6th5th5th4th4th3rd3rd2nd2nd1st1st12345678910111213Rank by WeekWeek12th11.746153846153845298.15384615384613110th60.68846153846153245.00699300699328th109.6307692307692191.8601398601399310th158.5730769230769245.00699300699348th207.5153846153846191.8601398601399510th256.4576923076923245.006993006993610th305.4245.006993006993710th354.3423076923077245.006993006993810th403.28461538461534245.00699300699399th452.226923076923218.43356643356645109th501.16923076923075218.43356643356645119th550.1115384615384218.43356643356645129th599.053846153846218.433566433566451312th11.746153846153845298.1538461538461318th60.68846153846153191.860139860139925th109.6307692307692112.1398601398601637th158.5730769230769165.286713286713347th207.5153846153846165.286713286713353rd256.457692307692358.99300699300701567th305.4165.286713286713378th354.3423076923077191.860139860139986th403.28461538461534138.7132867132867595th452.226923076923112.13986013986016102nd501.1692307692307532.41958041958043112nd550.111538461538432.41958041958043123rd599.05384615384658.9930069930070151312th11.746153846153845298.1538461538461319th60.68846153846153218.4335664335664527th109.6307692307692165.286713286713338th158.5730769230769191.860139860139948th207.5153846153846191.860139860139959th256.4576923076923218.43356643356645610th305.4245.006993006993710th354.3423076923077245.006993006993810th403.28461538461534245.00699300699399th452.226923076923218.43356643356645109th501.16923076923075218.43356643356645119th550.1115384615384218.43356643356645129th599.053846153846218.4335664335664513Expected WinsPlacePoints

Draft Picks

Pick Overall Player Position
1.10 10 Philip Rivers QB
2.03 15 Larry Fitzgerald WR
3.10 34 Pittsburgh DEF
4.03 39 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
5.10 58 Mario Manningham WR
6.03 63 Sidney Rice WR
7.10 82 Rashard Mendenhall K RB
8.03 87 Owen Daniels TE
9.10 106 Darren McFadden K RB
10.03 111 Joe Flacco QB
11.10 130 Michael Bush RB
12.03 135 Marcedes Lewis TE
13.10 154 Jerome Harrison RB
14.03 159 Jacoby Ford WR
15.10 178 Jerome Simpson WR
16.03 183 Garrett Hartley K

Keepers

Expected Wins by Week0.0000.0000.5000.5001.0001.000123456789101112130.00024.64378698224852140.0799536302464810.91257.06982248520710577.4545625299352720.67089.4958579881656894.1112638093657830.000121.92189349112428140.0799536302464840.628154.3479289940828296.9512426472659950.474186.7739644970414107.5673540175119560.000219.2140.0799536302464870.000251.62603550295853140.0799536302464880.575284.0520710059171100.5688347384007590.848316.478106508875781.84976787430463100.301348.9041420118343119.41186893272267110.442381.33017751479287109.70860790323033120.000413.75621301775146140.07995363024648130.00124.64378698224852140.0017155074990910.00057.06982248520710514.82917142962406820.00089.4958579881656848.1425739884850830.419121.92189349112428111.3427227107522740.000154.3479289940828253.8225316642854850.000186.773964497041475.05475440477746-0.008219.2140.6553614305078770.245251.62603550295853123.2548561697225480.000284.052071005917161.0577158465550390.000316.478106508875723.61958211836277100.000348.904142011834398.74378423519886110.000381.3301775147928779.3372621762142120.318413.75621301775146118.2172746596376713Expected Wins by WeekWeekWon gameLost game
All-Play Wins by Week0066111112345678910111213025.655621301775145141.2307692307692311059.41301775147929578.29370629370632893.1704142011834290.8811188811188830126.92781065088758141.2307692307692349160.685207100591784.5874125874125955194.44260355029584109.7622377622377660228.2141.2307692307692370261.9573964497041141.2307692307692385295.7147928994083109.76223776223776910329.4721893491123478.2937062937063103363.2295857988165122.34965034965035114396.9869822485207116.05594405594405120430.74437869822486141.2307692307692313025.655621301775145141.230769230769231059.41301775147929515.356643356643362093.1704142011834240.5314685314685333126.92781065088758122.3496503496503540160.685207100591727.94405594405594750194.4426035502958478.2937062937063162228.2128.6433566433566473261.9573964497041122.3496503496503580295.714792899408378.2937062937063190329.4721893491123415.35664335664336100363.2295857988165103.46853146853147110396.986982248520790.8811188811189121430.74437869822486134.9370629370629313All-Play Wins by WeekWeekWon gameLost game

Most Similar Seasons

Score Record Place Avg. Exp. % SD Playoff Finish
2011 Derrek 8-7 3rd 98.23 0.456 20.34 6th place
1 995 2011 Dave 3-10 12th 96.89 0.448 22.01
2 985 2019 Ed 5-8 11th 97.34 0.450 26.02
3 983 2019 Pat 6-7 9th 97.81 0.446 14.73
4 983 2019 Dave 6-7 10th 96.85 0.452 24.14
5 976 2010 Matt 5-8 9th 95.98 0.440 21.33
6 975 2012 Allen 6-7 8th 94.79 0.442 21.78
7 975 2021 Kevin 5-9 9th 96.60 0.440 23.11
8 974 2016 Allen 4-9 13th 96.47 0.458 20.34
9 972 2020 Scott 7-6 8th 95.08 0.454 18.15
10 970 2009 Dave 5-8 11th 95.98 0.452 13.72