The Sanderson Gazette - 2018-10-10 - With a Twist
"Oh Pat. Oh no." - Rob, checking scores for the first time Sunday evening
"I always love when food items come up in [the chat], really brings out the added joys of this league." - Pat, a few days later, remaining optimistic
Week 5 Recap
Pulley def. Kevin, 114.08-100.96:
The Game of the Blingaweek more or less lived up to its billing, as it was the second closest of the week and featured two 100-point scorers. Special teams were big for both Pulley and Kev, as Matt Prater (6.00) and the Arizona defense (21.00) gave our victor the edge over Harrison Butker (13.00) and the Baltimore defense (11.00).
Dave def. Matt, 136.04-103.24:
Out of nowhere, Dave had a huge week. Odell Beckham, Jr. (28.32) finally lived up to his draft round, and T.J. Yeldon (20.50), Sony Michel (17.40), and Cooper Kupp (18.00) all had very nice games. Matt suffered his second straight tough loss with a concussion-caused zero from Brandin Cooks, even though Kenny Golladay (19.07) continued to cement himself as the #1 WR in Detroit.
Derrek def. Schertz, 134.45-93.38:
D just missed out on his second Blangums of the season, and his return to the top is due to the guy who was responsible for his previous Blangums, James Conner (33.00). Davante Adams (24.67) and Mohamed Sanu (15.73) were also critical. Schertz once again failed to crack 100 despite great days from Saquon Barkley (27.60) and Philip Rivers (24.25).
Mike R. def. Rabbit, 123.49-85.60:
Another week, another easy win for Mike. Antonio Brown (25.47) and Adam Thielen (21.47) led the way, and only Tevin Coleman (3.50) really disappointed for our leader in expected wins. Rabs finally got a nice game from LeSean McCoy (11.57), but just didn't get enough across the board to make this one competitive.
Babel def. Pat, 71.44-46.68:
Babel's high scorer was Jared Goff, with 17.05. That's still way better than Pat's; Sammy Watkins put up 10.40 for our last place team.
Richie def. Ed, 90.57-81.38:
Despite Drew Brees's Monday night heroics (29.38), Ed fell short in his comeback bid (mainly because only JuJu Smith-Schuster (10.53) even broke double digits for the rest of his roster). Richie got 30.95 from Tom Brady, but the difference-makers in this one were DeAndre Hopkins (18.13) and Joe Mixon (18.23).
Rob def. Scott, 120.49-102.15:
Scott's nice little winning streak came to an end, even though he got 19.00 from his kicker, Graham Gano. Rob matched that with his defense (Cincinnati, 22.00) and added 20.67 from Zach Ertz.
Standings
- Rob, 5-0, 585.08
- Mike R., 4-1, 624.15
- Pulley, 4-1, 559.31
- Matt, 3-2, 583.12
- Derrek, 3-2, 578.50
- Kevin, 2-3, 570.05
- Ed, 2-3, 547.74
- Scott, 2-3, 525.40
- Rabbit, 2-3, 514.77
- Richie, 2-3, 514.49
- Babel, 2-3, 503.40
- Schertz, 2-3, 494.70
- Dave, 2-3, 479.28
- Pat, 0-5, 334.01
Weekly Awards
Team Blangums:
Dave scored 136.04 and won Team Blangums despite getting a big fat zero from Ricky Seals-Jones. No wonder he traded for a tight end.
Slapped Heartbeat:
Pat's season hit a new low, as his 46.68 is the seventeenth lowest score we've had up to this point. He has now had his heartbeat slapped all five weeks, and those five Slapped Heartbeats are a new full-season record.
Weekly MVP:
Even though he didn't bring Derrek Team Blangums, James Conner's 33.00 is good for MVP this week.
Dud of the Week:
Despite Mason Crosby (-1.00) at one point being 0/5 on kicks for Richie, this one goes to Alvin Kamara. Kamara's 4.40 was more than 14 points less than his Yahoo projection in a game Kevin lost by just over 13 points.
Start of the Week:
Dave smartly played Sony Michel (17.40) and T.J. Yeldon (20.50) in his flex spots over Chris Thompson (7.70), Mike Williams (6.30), and Doug Baldwin (0.13) and needed every point he could get to earn Team Blangums.
Misplay of the Week:
Dave played Ricky Seals-Jones (0.00) over Ben Watson (4.00) at tight end, nearly costing himself Team Blangums in the process.
Pickup of the Week:
Rob dropped Kelvin Benjamin for the Cincinnati defense and got 22.00 points.
Blessed Cahoots:
Despite Mason Crosby (-1.00) at one point being 0/5 on kicks against Ed, it's Babel who gets his heartbeat blessed this week. His score would only win one in eight games in a normal year, let alone this high-scoring one. And this week, specifically, it would only have beaten one other person; luckily, that's who Babel played.
Pryor Play of the Week:
Odell Beckham, Jr. put up 28.32, nearly doubling his previous weekly high for 2018 for Dave.
Week 6 Preview
Game of the Blingaweek
Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 4-1, 2nd) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-1, 3rd):
Pulley leads all-time series, 6-5.
This is the third time in four years that Mike and Pulley play each other in week six, but this year is a little different than usual. Pulley might have been consistently near the top of the standings at this point in the season lately, but his opponent - currently one place ahead of him - hasn't ranked higher than ninth the last two seasons.
At 4-1, each of these guys should be expected to make the playoffs; twelve of the fifteen previous 4-1 teams (post-expansion) have gone on to play past week thirteen. At 4-2, the odds aren't much worse (fifteen out of nineteen), though oddly, no 4-2 team has finished the year in first place.
And neither of these teams seems like a 2013 or 2016 Richie or 2014 Schertz, all three of whom had less than 2.5 expected wins through five weeks and wound up missing the playoffs. Mike's at 3.52 expected wins, thanks mainly to #1 overall WR Adam Thielen (vs. ARI) and #1 overall TE Travis Kelce (@NE). He complements them with Antonio Brown (@CIN), Jarvis Landry (@CIN), and, surprisingly, James White (vs. KC).
Pulley's clear best player is #1 overall RB Todd Gurley (@DEN), though the rest of his roster doesn't look quite as good as Mike's. T.Y. Hilton (@NYJ) and Will Fuller V (vs. BUF) are both working through hamstring injuries and have missed some time. Phillip Lindsay (vs. LAR) was a great waiver wire pickup, but will he continue his success?
Pick: Bernie's Bullies.
Other Blingamatches
Live Commish (Ed, 2-3, 7th) vs. D's Nuts (Derrek, 3-2, 5th):
Ed leads all-time series, 7-6.
Ed's coming off a very disappointing week four total, but prior to that, had some bad luck (by expected wins, he had a 2/3 chance of being 3-2 or better at this point). Since expansion, teams with his combination of wins and expected wins have done OK; three of the four have won a playoff game.
On the other hand, D might have righted his ship after a deserved two game skid, nearly nabbing Blangums in the process. There's not a lot of history here - 3-2 teams who should have three wins are actually quite rare - but he should feel pretty good about his playoff chances.
Especially because this week could be a laugher. Ed's top-two QB, Drew Brees, and his newly-acquired top-five WR, Mike Thomas, are on bye, so he'll need some unexpectedly great weeks from Julian Edelman (vs. KC) and Devin Funchess (@WAS) to pull off an upset. Either that, or D's team would have to crap the bed. And with Derrek's QB (Kirk Cousins) and defense (Minnesota) playing at home against the lowly Cardinals, that's not a good bet.
Pick: D's Nuts.
Harrison Hammers (Matt, 3-2, 4th) vs. Mixon it up (Richie, 2-3, 10th):
Richie leads all-time series, 4-3.
Matt looked like the team to beat through two weeks, but he's failed to break 110 the past three weeks, and has lost two in a row. He's been a slightly less consistent version of Kevin so far, and he's turned that variation into an extra win, which means he should be OK with his playoff chances right now.
Richie has rallied to win two straight after falling to 0-3, but 2-3 teams with less than 2.5 expected wins have not fared well in the long run.
Their matchup this week could have some fireworks. Richie's got some great matchups for Tom Brady (vs. KC), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. BUF), and Joe Mixon (vs. PIT). Matt was facing a week missing some key players (Kenny Golladay (bye), Mike Thomas (bye), and Brandin Cooks (@DEN, concussion)), but he shipped Thomas out for JuJu Smith-Schuster (@CIN), and it appears Cooks is going to play.
Pick: Mixon it up.
NotLooking4TheRepeat (Pat, 0-5, 14th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 5-0, 1st):
Rob leads all-time series, 7-2.
Pat is 0-5, and his all-play record is a remarkable 0-65 (the previous worst was Schertz's 7-58 in 2012). There's really not much more to say about his season.
Rob is 5-0, and deservedly so. His low score on the season is 103.70 (week one), and he can pretty much buy his postseason ticket now. That said, he is the weakest 5-0 team we've seen so far. That said, that might actually be a good thing, as no 5-0 team has ever won the Sanderson Cup.
This week, as if Rob needs any more advantages in his quest to become our second 6-0 team ever, Deshaun Watson (vs. BUF), A.J. Green (vs. PIT), and Calvin Ridley (vs. TAM) all have sweet matchups. Pat... well, Pat has Sammy Watkins (@NE).
Pick: Rob for Today.
schertzopotamus (Schertz, 2-3, 12th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 2-3, 6th):
Kevin leads all-time series, 4-3.
Schertz has been our most consistent team through five weeks, as the standard deviation of his scores comes out to 6.15. But being consistent can be a bad thing when your average score is the third lowest. He's never had more than a 2/3 chance of winning a given game, but also never more than a 1/3 chance of losing, adjusting for this year's scoring environment. Overall, 2-3 sounds about right, but he'll need his team to be more explosive if he wants to move up in the standings.
Kevin's also been fairly consistent (13.83 standard deviation, fourth lowest), and his average score is fifteen points higher than Schertz's, so why is he 2-3? Well, it's mostly down to a dose of Pattermann's Early Season Bad Luck and Nerve Tonic. Since expansion, Kevin has 10 losses in the first five weeks of the season in which he broke 100 points; no one else has more than six! And while two of his three scores on his current losing streak come in just under 50% to win (and I mean just under, as they're at 49.9% and 48.4%, adjusted for this year's scoring environment), the other one was an 84% chance.
Though Alvin Kamara may have been a dud for Kevin in week five, he'll still be missed while on his bye this week. Devonta Freeman (vs. TAM) should be able to fill in, though if the Falcons attack the Buccaneers in the same way the Bears did, it might be a disappointing day for Freeman. Keenan Allen (@CLE) and Stefon Diggs (vs. ARI) should have big weeks, though. Schertz has been happy with Saquon Barkley (vs. PHI) and could get the high upside he needs with Josh Gordon (vs. KC) getting more integrated into the New England offense.
Pick: schertzopotamus.
Chili Right Away (Dave, 2-3, 13th) vs. Praines & Dick (Rabbit, 2-3, 9th):
Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-3.
Dave went from "historically bad 13th place team" to "historically good 13th place team" thanks to his huge week five, but he'll need a Babelesque turnaround to make the playoffs.
Rabs might be underperforming based on his expected wins (2.38), but that's mostly a function of his best week being Blangums-level good. He's failed to break 100 in three of the five weeks, so a 2-3 record is tough to complain about.
This week looks like a great week for Rabs to be stacking Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, as they host the Buccaneers, whose defense was last seen making Mitchell Trubisky look like Drew Brees. Dave finally has a tight end he's looking forward to playing, Eric Ebron (@NYJ), and if Odell Beckham, Jr. (vs. PHI) is out of his slump for good, he could be dangerous.
Pick: Pralines & Dick.
HuntFournetteOctober (Babel, 2-3, 11th) vs. Not an MD (Scott, 2-3, 8th):
All-time series tied, 0-0.
Babel's toughed his way through Leonard Fournette's injury and Mike Evans's (@ATL) bye to a 2-3 record. Like Rabbit, he's failed to crack 100 thrice, but he's consistently gotten closer to the mark (save for his week five Blessed Heartbeat).
Scott's trending upward, having three straight 100-point games following his deserved 0-2 start. Teams with an expected winning percentage a bit above .500 through five weeks are a bit of a mixed bag, so Scott's year-end outcome could be anything from a bye to last place. (Well, probably not last place, given Pat's historically bad season.)
Scott's Lion-heavy draft hurts him this week, and Detroit is on their bye. But he's always got a shot, thanks to Patrick Mahomes (@NE), the top overall QB so far. Babel has Kareem Hunt in the same game, and gets Mike Evans back, but also has no idea which versions of Michael Crabtree (@TEN) and Quincy Enunwa (vs. IND) he's going to get on a given week.
Pick: Not an MD.
Closing Thoughts
We've now averaged over 100 points for the first five weeks of the season (matching 2011's record) and for the seventh straight week going back to last year, which is a record.
Also, please amuse yourself with this amazing clip of the Jaguars' passing offense.