"Any day I can pee outside in a socially acceptable fashion is the best day of my life to that point" - Dave.

Week 13 Recap

Much like Chase Daniel, we collectively dropped the ball this week. Our 97.07 average score was the only time this season that we dipped below 100.

Kevin def. Dave, 96.91-86.96:

Kev followed the league's lead, as he put up his lowest score of the year. But it was still enough to beat Dave, who wasn't able to catch up on Monday night despite Carson Wentz's 22.90. Kevin got a big 27.73-point week from Keenan Allen to make the playoffs for the third straight year.

Derrek def. Rabbit, 108.18-84.71:

Christian McCaffrey (23.93) continued his late-season run and carried D to first place overall (with help from Kai'mi Fairbairn (21.00) and James Conner (19.87)). Rabs needed to win to make the playoffs, but Matt Ryan (7.45) and Julio Jones (2.40) put up duds to seal his fate.

Pulley def. Rob, 93.48-91.87:

The closest game in the history of the Clash of Hatred ended with Zach Ertz (11.07) falling just short for Rob on Monday night. Pulley got 27.97 from Phillip Lindsay and 21.60 from Ezekiel Elliott to overcome bad games from Drew Brees (7.55) and Michael Thomas (5.33).

Mike R. def. Matt, 140.81-93.59:

Mike set a new record for total points in a season, and yet Travis Kelce (32.40) was just the second time a player broke 30 points for him all year. Chris Godwin (19.47) had a surprisingly great week for Matt, but he never stood a chance against the Bullies.

Scott def. Richie, 132.29-83.35:

Another 30+ points from Patrick Mahomes II (35.95) led to another near-Blangums for Scott (more on that later). Golden Tate III (19.33) finally broke through for Richie, but it was only to avoid a Slapped Heartbeat.

Ed def. Babel, 98.13-78.22:

Ed joined Rabbit and Pulley with a disappointing QB/WR stack (Andrew Luck (10.50) and T.Y. Hilton (10.27)), but Todd Gurley II (29.60) and Jared Cook (19.33) more than made up for it. Babel got 20.00 from the Jaguars defense and 14.83 from waiver pickup Justin Jackson, but had no other double digit scorers.

Schertz def. Pat, 101.30-69.12:

Two zeroes - David Moore and Matt LaCosse - destroyed Pat, while Schertz had an all-around solid day, with his high scorer (Aaron Rodgers) putting up only 17.15.

Standings

1. Derrek, 10-3, 1552.46 (b)
2. Mike R., 9-4, 1595.71 (b)
3. Pulley, 9-4, 1525.99 (x)
4. Matt, 8-5, 1456.67 (x)
5. Rob, 8-5, 1337.88 (x)
6. Kevin, 7-6, 1452.59 (x)
7. Rabbit, 7-6, 1349.14
8. Scott, 6-7, 1519.02
9. Ed, 6-7, 1381.05
10. Schertz, 6-7, 1331.15
11. Richie, 5-8, 1211.74
12. Babel, 4-9, 1356.45
13. Dave, 4-9, 1183.31
14. Pat, 2-11, 1129.79

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums:

Mike R. scored 140.81 and matched his 2012 season with his fifth Team Blangums of the year. Only 2010 Rabbit had more.

Slapped Heartbeat:

Pat ended the season where he started: with his heartbeat slapped. His 69.12 earned him his sixth Slapped Heartbeat of the year, extending his own record.

Weekly MVP:

Travis Kelce put up 32.40 for Mike R.

Dud of the Week:

Technically, there might be some more deserving players, but Matt got only 3.47 from Rob Gronkowski, whom he took just ahead of this week's MVP.

Start of the Week:

Pulley won by less than two points, but he left some points on his bench. Rivalry Week produces no Start of the Week award.

Misplay of the Week:

Rob could have played Doug Martin (10.90) over Mark Ingram (2.83) and defeated Pulley, but that would have been quite a bold move.

Pickup of the Week:

Justin Jackson put up 14.83 in a losing effort for Babel.

Pryor Play of the Week:

Golden Tate III put up 19.33, which more than doubled the amount of points he had put up since Richie traded for him.

Season Postmortems

Pat Gawne, 2-11, 1129.79 points, 14th, 3.92 expected wins

Pat opened the season significantly worse that anyone before, having an 0-65 all-play record after five weeks (that means he had five Slapped Heartbeats, folks). He scored above the season median (106.40) twice, so his final record matches expectations.

Pat's top historical comparison is 2017 Allen. It's not the strongest comp, as Allen had no Slapped Heartbeats (compared to Pat's record six), but it does give us a chance to look at Allen's farewell team. Last year, Allen personified the old saying, "one step forward, two steps back", as each of his wins was followed by exactly two losses.

Dave Fultz, 4-9, 1183.31 points, 13th, 4.19 expected wins

If it weren't for Pat's extreme ineptitude, we'd be talking more about Dave's exceptionally poor start to the year and bottom-ten final expected wins total. But Dave at least had some positives: he won a Team Blangums, handed Rob his first loss, and defeated both our bye teams.

That makes it a little weird to see 2016 Derrek, a pretty standard last place team, as Dave's top historical comparison. Dave will have to hope his follow-up year is as good as Derrek's.

Mark Babel, 4-9, 1356.45 points, 12th, 6.17 expected wins

Babel fell to tenth place in week 2 and never pulled back into single digits. While he did have the second luckiest win of the year, he also lost two games in which he broke the season median. His expected wins and point totals tell the story of a team that got unlucky, but still wasn't particularly strong.

With average luck, Babel would have wound up closer to where his most similar historical team, 2009 Allen, finished: six wins, but missing the playoffs.

Richie Armour, 5-8, 1211.74 points, 11th, 4.59 expected wins

Through week eight, Richie's team looked OK. He had three games comfortably above the median and one more just below it, so his 4-4 record warranted playoff hopes. But the wheels came off; Richie lost four of his final five games, and by every metric but wins, finished third to last.

We run into another Allen season, 2014, when we look for Richie's top historical comp. Like Richie, 2014 Allen started out a respectable 4-4, but failed to break 70 points in week nine.

Mike Schertz, 6-7, 1331.15 points, 10th, 5.94 expected wins

Schertz had arguably the most boring year ever. He scored between 92 and 112 points each of the first six weeks, then fell to 2-6 and out of contention. With two strong keepers (Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones) already on board, he didn't make any trades. He did break 100 four times on a 4-1 stretch to close the year, but only two of those scores were above the seasonal median.

The most similar team to Schertz is another boring team, 2010 Matt. Outside of a 165-point outburst in week 2, Matt didn't break 105 that year and was never a playoff threat. He did make the next three Blingabowls, though, so he's not a bad comp moving forward.

Ed Gross, 6-7, 1381.05 points, 9th, 6.58 expected wins

Though he had enough bad games to bring his expected win percentage down to essentially .500, Ed had an overall unlucky year. He broke the league median seven times, and would have done so twice more (weeks nine and ten) - and netted two more actual wins to make the playoffs - if he hadn't traded Drew Brees and Michael Thomas to Pulley after week eight. A strong finish (and Todd Gurley II with keeper eligibility) mean he can look forward to 2019 with a positive attitude, but it was still a hugely disappointing year for the commish.

But if you look at his most similar historical team, 2011 Babel, you think, "It could be worse." Babel was 7-5 and in fifth place heading into Rivalry Week that year, and needed a win or an Allen loss to make the playoffs. He got neither and became the first seven-win team to miss the playoffs.

Scott Beitzel, 6-7, 1519.02 points, 8th, 7.93 expected wins

Scott looks at Ed and 2011 Babel and rolls his eyes. Scott finished with a record-tying eleven game 100-point streak (Kevin started the year with 11 straight and finished last year with 9 straight, but his 20 game streak was broken up by his playoff scores), broke the league median nine times, and became just the eighth team to score 1500 points in a season. Despite those accomplishments, he was eliminated from the playoffs prior to Rivalry Week and never even won a Team Blangums. To rub it in even more, he is one of three teams to lose a game in which they broke 140 points.

His top two comps are this year's Pulley and Kevin, so we'll look more closely at his #3, 2014 Rabbit. That version of Rabs was 10-3, earned a bye for the fourth time in five years, and ultimately reached Blingabowl VII. That should tell you just how unlucky Scott was in 2018.

Nick "Rabbit" Warren, 7-6, 1349.14 points, 7th, 6.13 expected wins

For the second straight season, Rabbit entered Rivalry Week merely needing to win his own game to make the playoffs. And for the second straight season, he put up his third worst score of the year to lose a winnable game and end his season. Unlike last year, where actually lost his last three games, this year's Rabs finished strong. Despite being 3-5 and in 11th place after eight weeks, Rabs rallied to win his next four games - thrice breaking the median - to be in playoff position.

But ultimately, Rabs probably deserved his fate. He finished 10th by expected wins and 9th by points, and his most similar team, historically (this year's Babel is his overall #1), is 2016 Allen, who finished 4-9 and in 13th place. That version of Allen was unlucky - he had 5.99 expected wins - but he, too, was 9th in points.

Quarterfinals Preview

#3 Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 9-4) vs. #6 The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 7-6)

Pulley leads all-time series, 11-3.

These two have been among the strongest Blingaleaguers recently, having taken home the Sanderson Cup two of the last three years. Kevin's looking to make the semifinals for the third straight year, while Pulley's looking to make them for a remarkable sixth straight year. Pulley's also looking to become the first franchise to defeat another 12 times (both Babel and Kevin have equalled Pulley's feat by beating Dave 11 times).

These two met in week five, with Pulley winning a somewhat close game, 114.08-110.96. Pulley's two highest scorers from that week, Todd Gurley II and Andrew Luck, and his two wide receivers, Will Fuller V and Chris Hogan, are all now on Ed's roster. Kevin's best player all year, Alvin Kamara (@TAM), had his worst week of the year that week. So maybe we shouldn't try to learn too much from it.

This week, Pulley's QB/WR stack, Drew Brees and Michael Thomas, play the same Buccaneers defense that Kamara faces for Kevin. The Bucs were a juicy matchup a few weeks ago, but if their improvement over the last few weeks is real, this matchup could wind up with a lower total score than expected.

Pulley does have a trio of RBs he can rely on: Ezekiel Elliott (vs. PHI), Phillip Lindsay (@SF), and Adrian Peterson (vs. NYG). Kevin will be hoping for a sixth straight 15+ point game from Keenan Allen (vs. CIN) and a big game from Ben Roethlisberger (@OAK) in a nice matchup.

These two teams are pretty close overall. I'll go with the one who can't seem to miss the semis.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

#4 Harrison Hammers (Matt, 8-5) vs. #5 Rob for Today (Rob, 8-5)

Matt leads all-time series, 9-5.

After three weeks, if you heard these two were going to meet in the playoffs, you probably would have guessed it would happen in Blingabowl XI. Both Matt and Rob started 3-0, and they were the Game of the Blingaweek when they played in week four.

But since Rob's victory to improve to 4-0, these guys have collectively had a .500 record (Matt 5-4, Rob 4-5). But one of them will keep their season alive into the semifinals.

Rob will for sure be missing his first round pick, A.J. Green (IR), and Matt might not have the services of his, Melvin Gordon III (vs. CIN). Rob's team has bigger names - DeAndre Hopkins (vs. IND), Dalvin Cook (@SEA), Mark Ingram (@TAM) - but Matt's had steadier producers - Kenny Golladay (@ARI), JuJu Smith-Schuster (@OAK), Brandin Cooks (@CHI).

If Gordon plays, this is an easy pick. If not, I think the surprising tight end mismatch - Zach Ertz (@DAL) for Rob over Rob Gronkowski (@MIA) for Matt - is the deciding factor.

Pick: Rob for Today.

Closing Thoughts

Take a look at the Top Seasons page. The 2018 season has four of the ten highest point totals ever and the highest average (Mike, 122.75), median (Derrek, 126.61), and minimum (Kevin, 96.91) scores.

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