The Sanderson Gazette - 2021-10-27 - The Thrill of the Chase

Week 7 Recap

Richie def. Ed, 123.45-113.70

The only game that came down to Monday night was a good one. Ed got big games from A.J. Brown (23.73) and Leonard Fournette (15.30) and no real duds, and clung to a nine-point lead heading into the Monday night game. For Richie, Ja'Marr Chase's 32.80 offset Sam Darnold's 2.05 for Richie, and waiver wire pickup D'Ernest Johnson added 23.53. All he needed in the week's final game was a reasonably good game from DK Metcalf (18.80)... who scored an 84 yard touchdown in the first quarter

Schertz def. Pulley, 110.96-102.97

A flurry of touchdowns from Tom Brady (26.55) to Mike Evans (28.13) cemented this close win for Schertz. Pulley got 25.90 from Aaron Rodgers and 21.00 from the Tampa Bay defense, but took a tough loss.

Kevin def. Rob, 103.44-100.12

Kevin had a balanced effort, with Derek Carr's 22.25 leading the way and only O.J. Howard (1.20) scoring below five points. Rob got 24.75 from Mac Jones, 24.13 from C.J. Uzomah, and 20.00 from Michael Pittman, Jr. - but also got -1.13 from A.J. Dillon. This was the third straight matchup between these two that was within ten points.

Dave def. Mike R., 153.82-85.78

Tua Tagovailoa filled in at QB for Dave and scored 28.95, adding to big games from Alvin Kamara (28.17), Damien Harris (23.53), Terry McLaurin (22.27), and Kyle Pitts (21.73). Joe Burrow put up 30.30 for Mike in the loss.

Matt def. Derrek, 89.05-52.19

The Game of the Blingaweek was a huge disappointment, as Matt and D couldn't even combine for Dave's total. Matt's Lamar Jackson (23.15) was the only twenty point player in this one, while Derrek's usually stellar QB, Patrick Mahomes II (7.80) threw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Babel def. Pat, 106.59-84.72

Matthew Stafford (30.00) and D'Andre Swift (23.60) ensured that Babel would remain undefeated. Russell Gage (14.93) was a great pickup for Pat, but wasn't enough to score a big upset.

Rabbit def. Scott, 100.35-79.77

Cooper Kupp (32.80) is what Rabs thought he was getting when he drafted Christian McCaffrey. Tyler Heinicke (20.90) was OK for Scott.

Trades

A fun note: while the trades themselves won't be covered until next week's week 8 recap, Mike R. just traded for two players named Chase: Ja'Marr and Claypool. This has never been done before! The closest anyone has come to trading for two players with the same name in the same week is when Pat received two Juniors in week 3, 2020.

Trade between Ed and Rob

Ed received:

  • T.J. Hockenson - from Rob - keeper cost: 4th

Rob received:

  • Michael Pittman, Jr. - from Ed - keeper cost: 7th

Rob started cashing in for keepers after his loss in week 6, and Ed - at that time, still with some playoff hopes - capitalized.

This trade might have immediately put Ed out of contention, though; had he just held onto (and started) Pittman, he'd have won this week.

Trade between Dave and Rob

Dave received:

  • Calvin Ridley - from Rob - keeper cost: 1st
  • Terry McLaurin - from Rob - keeper cost: 2nd
  • Dak Prescott - from Rob - keeper cost: 3rd

Rob received:

  • Jerry Jeudy - from Dave - keeper cost: 4th
  • Jaylen Waddle - from Dave - keeper cost: 7th
  • Justin Fields - from Dave - keeper cost: 8th

Rob continued his keeper acquisitions by sending three players who weren't all he hoped for to Dave for some younger, cheaper options.

McLaurin had a huge week for Dave, helping him earn Team Blangums, while Ridley continued his disappointing season. Prescott's value remains TBD, as the Cowboys had their bye this week.

Trade between Ed and Mike R.

Ed received:

  • Brandon Aiyuk - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 7th
  • Daniel Jones - from Mike R. - keeper cost: 9th

Mike R. received:

  • Mike Davis - from Ed - keeper cost: 7th
  • Josh Gordon - from Ed - keeper cost: 9th

Mike preferred to start Davis over Aiyuk to cover byes, and Ed preferred taking on Aiyuk's upside.

There are no winners here, as the two combined for 2.10 points this week. At least Ed didn't have to take his 1.10 of that in his starting lineup.

Standings

  1. Babel, 7-0, 845.90
  2. Schertz, 6-1, 829.53
  3. Richie, 5-2, 820.39
  4. Kevin, 5-2, 781.13
  5. Derrek, 5-2, 755.45
  6. Dave, 5-2, 748.96
  7. Matt, 5-2, 727.26
  8. Rabbit, 4-3, 826.42
  9. Ed, 2-5, 726.96
  10. Pulley, 2-5, 680.25
  11. Mike R., 1-6, 742.82
  12. Pat, 1-6, 677.51
  13. Rob, 1-6, 640.90
  14. Scott, 0-7, 500.42

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Babel, 708
  2. Schertz, 649
  3. Richie, 641
  4. Rabbit, 614
  5. Derrek, 600
  6. Kevin, 581
  7. Dave, 537
  8. Mike R., 530
  9. Ed, 510
  10. Matt, 417
  11. Pulley, 413
  12. Pat, 406
  13. Rob, 322
  14. Scott, 74

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Dave's 153.82 is his highest total in more than seven years.

Slapped Heartbeat

Derrek's 52.19 is his lowest total in more than seven years.

Weekly MVP

Dave didn't even have the high scorer in his matchup, so we'll go with Richie's Ja'Marr Chase (32.80) for weekly MVP.

Dud of the Week

A few elite fantasy players had off days in week 7. Patrick Mahomes II scored 7.80 for Derrek, Aaron Jones scored 4.57 for Ed, and Travis Kelce scored 8.67 for Mike R. Call this a three-way tie.

Start of the Week

Richie went with D'Ernest Johnson (23.53) over Bryan Edwards (11.73) and won by less than ten.

Misplay of the Week

A.J. Dillon scored -1.13 for Rob. Playing Allen Lazard (14.00) or Nelson Agholor (12.80) would have given him a double digit victory.

Pickup of the Week

Richie will D'ouble up on D'Ernest Johnson awards this week.

Blessed Cahoots

A week ago, I wrote (poorly): "Matt's 90.72 was only better than that [sic] two other teams' [sic] this week. Luckily, he played one of them."

This week, I'll write: Matt's 89.05 was only better than four other teams this week. Luckily, he played one of them.

Matt joins 2009 Ed and 2016 Richie as teams that have defeated Slapped Heartbeat recipients while scoring below the overall league median twice in the first seven weeks of a season.

Week 8 Preview

Game of the Blingaweek

Swift Justice (Babel, 7-0, 1st) vs. DK Country (Richie, 5-2, 3rd)

Babel leads all-time series, 7-2..

Babel is just the third 7-0 team ever, and like I wrote about Pulley this time last year, he's looking to become the first 8-0 team in Blingaleague history.

He's faced an easy schedule (-30.4% strength of schedule), but that's not surprising. The correlation between record and strength of schedule at the seven week mark is -0.51 historically (which makes sense, because good teams wouldn't have played themselves). And if you look at all the teams with 6+ wins through seven weeks, you'll see only 2015 Pulley and 2018 Mike R. with harder-than-average schedules. (That said, Babel's schedule does get harder from here on out.)

Swift Justice's namesake, D'Andre Swift (vs. PHI), has been a great keeper, and Matthew Stafford (@HOU) was a great reward for waiting to draft a QB. If Deebo Samuel (@CHI) can sustain his overall WR3 pace, Babel could get a lot farther than 8-0.

Richie is a formidable opponent, though, having more Team Blangums wins that anyone else this year. He's faced a much more average (-3.7%) schedule than Babel; while he was lucky to get the worst version of Dave, he's also faced four opponents who have scored 110 or more (and won three of those games).

Rich also just put up the second highest score of the week with Ezekiel Elliott (@MIN) and Austin Ekeler (vs. NE) on bye. The player most responsible for that (Ja'Marr Chase) is now a Bully, but he's been replaced with Travis Kelce (vs. NYG) and Chris Godwin (@NO). Will Richie even need heroics from DK Metcalf (vs. JAC) any more?

Pick: DK Country.

Other Blingamatches

The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 5-2, 4th) vs. Harrison Hammers (Matt, 5-2, 7th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 11-5..

Kevin is having a very, well, Kevin year. He's got a very good team, is capable of having sub-80 weeks, and has the most difficult schedule (+4.9%) of all the 5+ win teams.

If you've seen the last two Blessed Cahoots recipients, you probably realize that Matt has gotten some big breaks this year. His -44.8% strength of schedule isn't just the easiest so far in 2021, it's the second easiest ever through seven weeks.

Matt's luck looks likely to continue this week, as Kevin will be without his best player, Davante Adams, due to COVID protocols. With Kareem Hunt and Clyde Edward-Helaire still out, too, that should be enough for Dalvin Cook (vs. DAL) and company to move Matt to 6-2.

Pick: Harrison Hammers.

scherzopotamus (Schertz, 6-1, 2nd) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 2-5, 9th)

Schertz leads all-time series, 8-1..

Schertz is very quietly off to his best start ever, partially due to a favorable schedule (-27.7%). The only time he has had this easy a start, it ended in an epic collapse. His peripherals are much better this season, but it's fair to wonder if Tom Brady (@NO) and Derrick Henry (@IND) can keep up their amazing production for a full season.

Ed's schedule (+19.3%) might not be as brutal as it was last year, but it's still doing him no favors. He scored a big upset in week 8, 2020; can he do the same again? We might know by Friday morning, as he'll have Aaron Jones (@ARI), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. GB), and A.J. Green (vs. GB) going Thursday night.

Pick: Live Commish.

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 5-2, 6th) vs. Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 2-5, 10th)

Pulley leads all-time series, 8-7..

Dave may have an easy schedule (-16.1%), but it's only really helped him once. He's coming off a huge week without either of his top QBs (Dak Prescott (@MIN) and Kirk Cousins (vs. DAL)) and just added Tyreek Hill (@NYG); how much better can he be in week 8?

Pulley's faced a really difficult schedule - the sixth hardest ever through seven weeks (we'll get to the top name on that list soon) - but, like with Dave, it hasn't really affected his record. Pulley's having a rare down year, so 2-5 seems about right. Joe Mixon (@NYJ) and Aaron Rodgers (@ARI) have been good, but it doesn't look like they'll be good enough to turn his season around.

Pick: Super Bash Bros.

D's Nuts (Derrek, 5-2, 3rd) vs. Can I Play the Spread? (Scott, 0-7, 14th)

Derrek leads all-time series, 3-0..

Week 7 is a definite outlier for D. Despite a very easy schedule (-29.9%), he probably deserves one more win; he scored above the 2021 median (106.40) each of the first six weeks. Patrick Mahomes II (@NYG) should bounce back, and Justin Jefferson (vs. DAL) and Diontae Johnson (vs. TEN) are no longer on bye, so Derrek should be fine, at least this week.

That's because he's facing Scott, who's off to the worst start ever by any metric you choose. (Seriously, look at that last link; Scott is more likely than not to be winless at this point!)

Pick: D's Nuts.

Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 4-3, 8th) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 1-6, 11th)

All-time series tied, 7-7..

Rabs might be the only team you can call "average" this year, as he's the only one within a game of .500. His schedule has been pretty average, too, at -4.6%. Cooper Kupp (@HOU) has been lapping the field at WR and could have another huge game this week, and Kyler Murray (vs. GB) is a leading MVP candidate.

And we come to Mike R., owner of the most difficult schedule ever through seven weeks, and not by a little bit. His last two weeks have been poor, but he really should have two or even three more wins. He also just acquired Ja'Marr Chase (@NYJ), who has shown he can be a week-winner.

Pick: Pralines & Dick.

The Vistas are Back (Pat, 1-6, 12th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 1-6, 13th)

Rob leads all-time series, 10-2..

Pat's schedule rates as +29.5%, which would rank eleventh hardest of all time through seven weeks. He's just replaced Tyreek Hill with a better keeper in CeeDee Lamb (@MIN) to look forward to 2022.

Rob cashed in for keepers a week before Pat did, which makes sense. He had the same record, but with an easier schedule (+6.6%). Michael Pittman, Jr. (vs. TEN) was great in his first week for Rob; will he follow it up with a similar performance?

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Closing Thoughts

Since we talked so much about strength of schedule, here is each team's so far. (Past strength of schedule is based off the actual points scored against a team, and how that would convert to expected wins. A strength of schedule of +10% means that a team's opponents would have 10% more expected wins than average, i.e. if their opponents' scores were that of a single team, it would have a .505 expected winning percentage.)

  • Mike R.: +64.3%
  • Pulley: +34.1%
  • Pat: +29.5%
  • Ed: +19.3%
  • Rob: +6.6%
  • Kevin: +4.9%
  • Scott: -1.4%
  • Richie: -3.7%
  • Rabbit: -4.6%
  • Dave: -16.1%
  • Schertz: -27.7%
  • Derrek: -29.9%
  • Babel: -30.4%
  • Matt: -44.8%

And here is each team's future strength of schedule. (Future strength of schedule is based on the average current expected winning percentage of a team's future opponents.)

  • Matt: +13.0%
  • Babel: +11.2%
  • Rob: +8.3%
  • Scott: +5.1%
  • Dave: +1.4%
  • Schertz: +1.2%
  • Ed: +0.7%
  • Derrek: +0.0%
  • Rabbit: -0.0%
  • Kevin: -5.0%
  • Pulley: -5.9%
  • Pat: -6.2%
  • Richie: -11.2%
  • Mike R.: -12.6%