The Sanderson Gazette - 2021-12-08 - Unprecedented

Week 13 Recap

Derrek def. Dave, 148.10-69.01

Derrek kept rolling thanks to Justin Jefferson (30.67), Diontae Johnson (26.00), Jonathan Taylor (24.30), and Rob Gronkowski (19.73). Dave managed less than 38 points from players other than Kyler Murray (31.55) and now runs the risk of missing the playoffs.

Pat def. Richie, 136.19-111.39

Pat put up his best score of the year behind Justin Herbert (26.45), Dallas Goedert (26.00), and Elijah Moore (17.17). Richie took yet another tough loss despite a huge game from the Colts defense (21.00) and now runs the risk of missing the playoffs.

Schertz def. Kevin, 87.36-80.53

The reason Dave and Richie are sweating out postseason berths is because Schertz squeezed out a win. Tom Brady's 32.30 offset a week to forget from the TE duo of Mike Gesicki (6.13) and Zach Ertz (1.33). Kevin got 23.20 from Cooper Kupp, but was done in by dueling 1.47 point games from Marvin Jones, Jr. and Cole Beasley.

Rabbit def. Matt, 97.03-90.60

Rabs kept his bye hopes alive, with Alexander Mattison (19.53), Tyler Lockett (15.07), and Matt Gay (15.00) leading the way. Matt had decent games from Josh Jacobs (16.27) and Mike Williams (14.67), but saw his eight game winning streak come to an end.

Pulley def. Babel, 119.23-89.05

Like Pat, Pulley had his highest score of the year in week 13. George Kittle (36.63) had a huge week, while Sony Michel (19.17) and Ben Roethlisberger (21.20) both stepped into his lineup with strong games. Babel took zeroes from Adam Thielen and Hunter Henry to drop his second straight.

Mike R. def. Rob, 105.60-97.33

Javonte Williams (26.33) cemented Mike's victory on Sunday night after David Montgomery (21.80) got him off to a good start. Rob was led by Jimmy Garoppolo (18.45) and Antonio Gibson (17.87).

Ed def. Scott, 106.33-69.20

Ed won his third straight game thanks to big weeks from the Kansas City defense (17.00), Jared Goff (21.40), and Devonta Freeman (17.20). Scott got a second straight stellar score from Tee Higgins (24.40), but failed to crack 70 points for the sixth time this season.

Standings

  1. Derrek, 11-2, 1,500.03 (b)
  2. Matt, 10-3, 1,329.03 (x)
  3. Babel, 9-4, 1,451.53
  4. Rabbit, 9-4, 1,400.54
  5. Dave, 9-4, 1,285.33
  6. Richie, 8-5, 1,474.26
  7. Schertz, 8-5, 1,315.91
  8. Ed, 6-7, 1,332.09 (e)
  9. Kevin, 5-8, 1,263.84 (e)
  10. Mike R., 4-9, 1,235.42 (e)
  11. Pulley, 4-9, 1,223.64 (e)
  12. Pat, 3-10, 1,283.89 (e)
  13. Scott, 3-10, 966.07 (e)
  14. Rob, 2-11, 1,126.78 (e)

Blingalytics Ratings

  1. Derrek, 718
  2. Richie, 670
  3. Babel, 657
  4. Rabbit, 573
  5. Ed, 556
  6. Schertz, 520
  7. Matt, 497
  8. Dave, 491
  9. Pat, 483
  10. Kevin, 455
  11. Mike R., 447
  12. Pulley, 433
  13. Rob, 330
  14. Scott, 168

Weekly Awards

Team Blangums

Derrek's 148.10 means he joins 2008 Kevin, 2010 Rabbit, and 2014 Pulley as the only teams to win three consecutive Team Blangums awards.

Slapped Heartbeat

Dave's 69.01 just barely kept Scott from breaking the Slapped Heartbeat record.

Weekly MVP

George Kittle's 36.63 will take this one home for Pulley.

Dud of the Week

Tyreek Hill scored just 2.93 for Dave.

Start of the Week

Schertz played Darrel Williams (10.00) over Kenyan Drake (1.07) and won by 6.83.

Misplay of the Week

James Conner (18.30) has been awesome for Richie, but he was left on the bench in favor of Ezekiel Elliott (4.77). It didn't cause Richie to lose, but it was a bad play.

Pickup of the Week

Ed chose the Chiefs defense off the waiver wire and was rewarded with 17.00.

Blessed Cahoots

It's not like Derrek hasn't earned his last two wins - he won Team Blangums both weeks, after all - but he faced the lowest score once again.

Pryor Play of the Week

George Kittle's 36.63 is by far his highest score of the season.

Playoff Scenarios

Derrek has clinched a bye.

Derrek clinches regular season first place with:

  • a win OR a Matt loss.

Matt has clinched a playoff berth.

Matt clinches a bye with:

  • a win OR losses by Babel, Rabbit, and Dave.

Babel clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Richie loss OR a Schertz loss.

Rabbit clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Richie loss OR a Schertz loss.

Dave clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win OR a Richie loss OR a Schertz loss.

Richie clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Schertz loss.

Schertz clinches a playoff berth with:

  • a win AND a Richie loss.

(Rob, Scott, Pat, Pulley, Mike R., Kevin, and Ed have been eliminated from playoff contention.)

Playoff Scenarios, Part II

Derrek hasn't formally clinched it, but he will be our regular season champ thanks to a 171 point cushion over Matt.

Matt can finish anywhere from second to fifth. All he has to do to get a bye is win, but if he loses, Babel or Rabbit should easily pass him with a win, and in theory, Dave could too.

Like Derrek with first place, Babel and Rabbit haven't clinched playoff spots, but are essentially locked in. While either could easily be passed by Dave (by record) and Richie (by points) should they lose, it would take a miracle for Schertz to pass them, too.

Dave is where it gets interesting. He's already trailing Richie and Schertz in points, which means that if he has another off week and Richie and Schertz win, he'll miss the playoffs at 9-5.

Richie recent bad luck - he's lost three of his last four despite scoring at least 98.77 in all four games - means he also has to fear getting passed by Schertz. Luckily, he has such a point cushion on Schertz that all he'll need to do is beat Scott to wrap up a spot.

Schertz absolutely has to win - passing Richie in points isn't going to happen - and hope for either Dave or Richie to lose.

Holistically, if the playoffs were to start now, as they have in every previous season, we'd have an 8-5 team (Schertz) on the outside looking in - which would be a first! And if Richie and Schertz both win this week, it will guarantee that a 9-5 team misses the playoffs!

Week 14 Preview

Games of the Blingaweek

Super Bash Bros. (Dave, 9-4, 5th) vs. The Chocolate Donuts (Kevin, 5-8, 9th)

Kevin leads all-time series, 12-4.

Normally, the top-billed matchup of the week features a game between two strong teams that looks to be competitive. But it's hard to call these two teams strong, at least at the moment. Since week 9, they've broken 100 once in ten games between them (though that game did earn Dave Team Blangums) and have each had three games below 80 points. That sort of low scoring does often lead to a competitive matchup, but with his team likely back at full strength, Dave is projected to score 139 points by Yahoo (to Kevin's 99).

So, no, this is not your usual Game of the Blingaweek (and not just because it's one of three to get that title). It's up here because of the implications and the history of this rivalry. Dave needs to win to feel comfortable about making the playoffs and not letting all his trades go to waste. And Kevin has a history of denying Dave his desires during Rivalry Week. In 2012 and 2016, a final-week loss to Kevin kept Dave from making the playoffs. And in 2017, this rivalry matchup determined who got a bye - in Kevin's favor, of course.

To play against history, Dave will hope Alvin Kamara (@NYJ) and Aaron Jones (vs. CHI) return to form following their injuries. He'll also hope that Travis Kelce (vs. LV) and Tyreek Hill (vs. LV) bounce back from an abominable week 13. And let's not forget that Dave has Davante Adams (vs. CHI) going against the WR traded away to get him (Cooper Kupp (@ARI)).

Kevin will rely on Kupp, of course, and hope Tyler Conklin (vs. PIT) gets most of Adam Thielen's vacated red zone targets. Otherwise, it's hard to pick out any player on his team that looks better than their counterpart on Dave's side. That's why Kevin is looking at his worst finish since 2015.

As noted above, Yahoo projects Dave for a whopping 139 points. That bodes well, in general, even though Dave has fallen 15 points or more short of projections each of the past four weeks.

Pick: Super Bash Bros.

DK Country (Richie, 8-5, 6th) vs. Two Digit FC (Scott, 3-10, 13th)

Richie leads all-time series, 3-1.

This matchup has similar implications to Dave vs. Kevin - the year-long powerhouse (Richie) is at risk of missing the playoffs at the hands of an also-ran (Scott). But there are a few things that suggest Richie is less likely to be heartbroken than Dave.

The first is history. It's Richie who has previously knocked Scott out of the playoffs during Rivalry Week, just last year. Additionally, Scott is not just a regular non-playoff team. Despite victories in three of his last five games, he still profiles as the worst team in Blingaleague history.

Richie has seen DK Metcalf (@HOU) and Ezekiel Elliott (@WAS) tail off in recent weeks, so it's possible both might not be in his lineup come the weekend. Austin Ekeler (vs. NYG) and Cordarelle Patterson (@CAR) have been as strong as ever, though, and James Conner (vs. LAR) could fill in if need be. Josh Allen (@TAM) has a tough opponent, but the weather won't be an obstacle for him like it was last week.

Scott has gotten two good games in a row from Tee Higgins (vs. SF). It's hard to see him pulling this upset without a third. And, even then, it would be a longshot.

Pick: DK Country.

schertzopotamus (Schertz, 8-5, 7th) vs. The Vistas are Back (Pat, 3-10, 12th)

Pat leads all-time series, 5-4.

Given that Schertz is currently in 7th place, it's hard to say he'll be heartbroken if he loses to Pat. But the fact that he's in that position is why this is our third Game of the Blingaweek.

The Gazette has covered this enough, but losing Derrick Henry really hurt Schertz. From week 9 onward, Schertz has averaged just 76 points per game (only Kevin has been worse). If the Bills-Buccaneers game doesn't turn into a shootout - Schertz has Tom Brady (vs. BUF), Mike Evans (vs. BUF), Stefon Diggs (@TAM), and Devin Singletary (@TAM) - it's easy to see him continuing that trend.

Meanwhile, Pat has been one of the better teams recently. He's averaged 104 points per game since week 9; only Derrek and Richie have scored more in that span. Justin Herbert (vs. NYG), Elijah Moore (vs. NO), and Eli Mitchell (@CIN) have been the main reasons for Pat's recent production, which, despite the disparity in record, makes him the favorite this week.

Pick: The Vistas are Back.

Other Blingamatches

D's Nuts (Derrek, 11-2, 1st) vs. Pralines & Dick (Rabbit, 9-4, 4th)

Rabbit leads all-time series, 8-7.

Sticking with the "since week 9" analysis, Derrek has gone from "very good" to "legendary". Over the past five games, D has 4.66 expected wins and 63 all-play wins - both the most ever in a five game stretch. (That run includes four Team Blangums awards and the third best score in the fifth week.)

D has locked up the regular season championship, so it's no big deal that he'll be without his MVP, Jonathan Taylor (bye), this week. He still has Justin Jefferson (vs. PIT) and Rob Gronkowski (vs. BUF), though, so 12-2 is definitely within reach.

Rabs was knocked out of a playoff spot during Rivalry Week in 2017, 2018, and 2019 - the latter two at the hands of Derrek. While that can technically happen again this year, it is incredibly unlikely given how tiebreakers are set up. And with Alexander Mattison (vs. PIT) in line to be the Vikings' bellcow again, Rabs might just win this week and render those tiebreakers moot.

Pick: D's Nuts.

Swift Justice (Babel, 9-4, 3rd) vs. Live Commish (Ed, 6-7, 8th)

Babel leads all-time series, 12-5.

If you go back to before week 9, it would have been silly to suggest that Babel would be an underdog - and desperate for a win - in Rivalry Week. But Swift Justice been crushed by injuries recently; D'Andre Swift and Adam Thielen are out, and Darren Waller (@KC) is questionable. Babel's recent swoon isn't as dramatic as Dave's or Schertz's - he's stayed above 80 every week - but it's been enough to make him a longshot for a bye.

Ed's moved all the way up to fifth in points and expected wins and a tie for fourth in all-play record, but that's not really driven too much by the last five games. In fact, Ed ranks lower by those metrics since week 9 than he does over the full season. The bottom line, though, is that Live Commish is not Rivalry Week fodder like he has been the last few years. Leonard Fournette (vs. BUF) and Devonta Freeman (@CLE) have been strong contributors recently, and Taysom Hill (@NYJ) has as good a matchup in week 14 as you could hope for.

Pick: Live Commish.

Harrison Hammers (Matt, 10-3, 2nd) vs. Bernie's Bullies (Mike R., 4-9, 10th)

Matt leads all-time series, 14-5.

Matt's been worse than his record all year, and losing Dalvin Cook for another week doesn't help that. Michael Gallup (@WAS) has come back from injury pretty well, though, and Mike Williams (vs. NYG) and Mark Andrews (@CLE) are always capable of blowing up.

Mike's been better than his record all year, or at least was until he started playing for 2022. And even then, he followed his week 9 Slapped Heartbeat with wins in three of his next four games. Under-the-radar adds like Hunter Renfrow (@KC) and Pat Freiermuth (@MIN) have kept him competitive nearly every week.

Will 2021 be the year that our three most one-sided rivalries all get a little bit closer? I've already picked Dave and Ed to defeat Babel and Kevin, and Yahoo likes Mike R. to upset our Monster Heel. Will I follow suit?

Pick: Bernie's Bullies.

Pullman's MondoSquad (Pulley, 4-9, 11th) vs. Rob for Today (Rob, 2-11, 14th)

Rob leads all-time series, 10-9.

This is arguably the least impressive Clash of Hatred ever. The combined six wins between Pulley and Rob matches 2012 for their lowest total when they've faced off in Rivalry Week. Rob won then to finish just a game behind Pulley in the final standings. Will he repeat the feat this year?

George Kittle (@CIN) and Odell Beckham, Jr. (@ARI) are on a nice recent run for the Pullman, but his record was shot prior to that. Aaron Rodgers (vs. CHI) has been good, not great. But that's ignoring his best player, who is vs. SF this week. Joe Mixon.

Antonio Gibson (vs. DAL) is Rob's "Too Little, Too Late" counterpart, and this week he'll combine with A.J. Dillon (vs. CHI) and Chuba Hubbard (vs. ATL) to form a fairly solid RB corps.

Pick: Pullman's MondoSquad.

Closing Thoughts

It's been another great season, and good luck everyone!